Very complex and packed with uncertainties, as Palestine I believe like no other nation is dependent on global politics and political bargaining.
To start off the thread, let's look at some of the realities and issues currently discussed. It will only be a coarse insight into the issue due to lack of time.
The players divided by "team" or political goals.
Team A: PA (Palestinian Authority, lead by Fatah) rules the West Bank, not democratically elected, backed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, and under pressure (financial aid, political support) by the US and EU.
Aim: A Palestinian state on the remaining 22% of what used to be Palestine, with East Jerusalem as the capital, and normalization of relationship with Israel. Right of return for refugees negotiable, territory and control of jerusalem negotiable, settlements negotiable, security and control negotiable.
Team B: Hamas rules Gaza and is the de facto democratically elected government, supported by Hezbollah, Syria, Iran and indirectly Qatar.
Aim: A Palestinian state on the pre-1967 borders (22%) with East Jerusalem as its capital and the return of ALL refugees to their homes in both Palestine and what is now Israel. No Peace treaty, but a lengthened "hudna" (cease fire) negotiated, i.e. for a 100 years and renewable.
Team C: Israel, US, and EU (divided into a majority pro-Israel and a minority pro-Palestine)
Israel, talks about a two state solution, but is in reality not interested in a sovereign palestinian state by its side. Rather it should at most be a fractured vassal like state isolated from the outside world, under Israeli supremacy and indirect rule, fractured by settlements, jews-only highways, security zones, no sovereignty over airspace, borders, and resources, demilitarized with access to the IDF on "security needs" and surveillance sites and equipment installed on Palestinian land.
The US, interested in a two-state solution with priority for Israeli security and dominance, meaning with as much of the above as possible.
The EU, a two-state solution with a viable Palestinian state, though no definitions are to be found of what that means, but most likely a priority for Israeli security and dominance and secondary concerns for the Palestinian state with trade being the most important factor.
Issues:
- Establishment of final borders for the two states
- Viability of the Palestinian state (including how to "connect" Gaza with the West bank)
- Security
- Refugees
- Compensation
- Resources (especially water)
- Settlements
Different scenarios discussed:
Scenario 1: "Peace" is reached through negotiation between "Israel" and the PA, with two states existing side by side.
Borders will be determined through negotiation via a land swap agreement, where "Israel" will get the land on which the largest jewish settlements are situated and on the other hand seed the same amount of land to the Palestinians from its territory, most likely desert-land in the Negev. The rest of the settlers will be moved back to "Israel" and receive generous compensations for the trouble, most likely paid by the US tax payers.
Gaza and the West bank, might get connected through an underground tunnel or an overhanging bridge, with "Israeli" control or surveillance paid for by the international community.
The Jerusalem issue, is a wild card, and creative solutions might be put forward.
The control of borders will be done by the Palestinians but under either EU or Israeli surveillance.
"Israel" will get access to Palestinian water, either by a negotiated rate, or special discounted price, with unrestricted flow.
Palestinian airspace is to be controlled by "Israel".
Cooperation between PA and IDF on security issues (clamping down on opposition), no military, but a restricted and lightly armed border patrol.
The allowing of return for a few thousand refugees (mostly elderly from Lebanon) to their homes in what is now "Israel", while the great majority would be absorbed by the newly created Palestinian state, and resettled elsewhere in the world.
Compensation, to be determined and paid for not by Isreal, but by the International community.
Problems:
"Israel" will do whatever it can to provoke the disintegration of the Palestinian state and compose a permanent threat to Palestine.
The opposition led by Hamas will be a destabilizing factor if it is ignored and frozen out, as is the current case.
The Palestinian state would change from being a democracy under establishment, to being just another corrupt dictatorship, run from Ramallah, and its economy and resources controlled by a closed group of Fatah officials.
The majority of Palestinians are refugees outside their nation, and any solution that doesn't satisfy them will only bring more frustration and problems.
The largest water bassin is situated under one of the largest jewish settlements that "Israel" wants in its future territory.
The majority of the WB settlers are right-wing and racist zionists that won't want to leave voluntarily and hence initiate attacks on Palestinians as to provoke retaliation that would need to be answered by the IDF, and hence create a chaos in the area.
Scenario 2: Cards need to be reshuffled, and war breaks out in the Middle East, with Israel and its allies on one side, and the opposition on the other side. Result=? unknown.
