The Fighter Gap

[master_fx]

Why not just buy a Chinese Flanker? Not political Bullsh*t attach either. Its a whole new warplane equiped with Chinese avionics, engine, cockpit and weaponry. This new J-11 kit was the result if the PLAAF attempt to modernize their older systems for to be replaced by its own new and improved equipment. The only thing that's Russian on it is the similar hull of the body which the Chinese already has liscense to build for hehe.

cant.... the agreement has been made for the liscence production stated that china can not export those kinda planes to anyone.... (after russkie have experienced with their own mig-21 made popular by china....... lol)

 

[master_fx]

Why buy these when pakistan is already gonna go for more better, cheaper and flexible J-10?

Currently the J-10 can put up a good fight against the SU-30mki but in the future when china releases its new J-10c, then pakistan will have over 100 unstopable machine ready to shoot the india MKI's and MRCA's out of the sky.

personally i think is a waste to make j-10 to do MRCA and su-30mkkI..... lol (plz dont fire fc-1:army

 

[Shafi]

squdron leader is correct

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

The worse thing that pakistani admin did was to cancel the purchase of the mirage 2000 in the early 90's. Even though that $200 million was going to Zardari's pocket, the PAF would have gained 10 times by introducing a higher tech aircraft under its wings.

The aircraft that pakistan is buying today will start to be delivered in a year or so. The training would start immediately, but it takes about 3---5 years to learn to fly and master a present day fighter aircraft to its fullest. The technology gap between PAF and IAF had widened quite a bit. So, with 32 mirage 2000 in the early 90's, by now we may have purchased another 75 to 100 aircraft and with, our pilots well trained on a modern day combat aircraft, we would have been looking farther ahead into the future.

Right now, we are just waiting for the train to stop by our station so that we can start the ride to the flight simulator of tomorrow. Left so far behind----!

 

[Contrarian]

true masterkhan...

btw the J-10 cant counter the MKI, it will hopefully be able to 'take care' of the MRCA's yes, but not the MKI's which would number roughly aound 200 at the time.

hopefully, the 2nd 5th gen fighter development would have startd by then with Russia.

indeed, buying Mirages at that time would have take the PAF to a completely new level...right now, ony J-10's would be able to effectively take out the MRCA's. If PAF had the mirages, it would have added to the J-10's to take out the MRCA's and Indian Mirages. For MKI however, u will need the next plane after J-10.

 

[sigatoka]

Hi,

The worse thing that pakistani admin did was to cancel the purchase of the mirage 2000 in the early 90's. , the PAF would have gained 10 times by introducing a higher tech aircraft under its wings.

The technology gap between PAF and IAF had widened quite a bit. So, with 32 mirage 2000 in the early 90's, by now we may have purchased another 75 to 100 aircraft and with, our pilots well trained on a modern day combat aircraft, we would have been looking farther ahead into the future.

Left so far behind

Technology gap is not a static thing, its not about closing the tech. gap between Indian now or even for next five years, its about taking a systematic approach to try and close the gap completely in twenty years and even try and pull ahead.

Such a task requires that Pakistan move on from exporting rice and importing high tech jets, the reason being that over time the terms of trade naturally move against agricultaral products vis-a-vis manufactured products. So this means that in future to buy a high tech jet Pakistan will need to export even more rice than it does now to acquire a single jet. Also production of rice is subject to diminishing returns (because land is fixed and adding more labour and capital to same sized plot of land doesnt increase yield that much). Manufactured products because of learning by doing are not subject to as much diminishing returns as agriculture.

This means that even though Pakistan in FC jet and the Al-Khalid tank and anti-tank missile systems and shoulder launched anti aircraft missile is not the best in the world in terms of technology, it ensures that Pakistan has its fingers in the pie. With China as a co-partner it ensures that Pakistan develops its manufacturing base, engages in learning by doing and unlike India's LCA program is not biting off more than it can chew at any one time. This system of manufacturing development ensures that in twenty years time Pakistan will still be able to maintain a larger fleet of advanced weapons platforms than it would otherwise be able to do so.

 

[Contrarian]

what i dont understand is that WHY in every discussion about Pakistan's military or economic development, China is always dragged in!!

I mean does India when it talks about its economic development bring in Russia or the US?
You are commiting a serious folly if you think that a booming China will be able to make Pakistan boom along with it. Every nation becomes economically strong on its own base.Stop asking China for everyhting...make things yourself, ask the president to put reforms on full face, be self dependent.
everywhere u read, its china china china for anything that is related to pakistan, whether gwadar, or planes, or manufacturing or whatever.

There are no permanent alliances,,,Pakistan is in for a huge shock if it thinks that China is the solution to all its problems.

 

[MastanKhan]

Sigatoka,

Rice won't hold upto indian aggression. Pakistan would have bought the Mirage 2000 a replacement for the F 16's in the early 90's, we would have forgotten about the F 16 purchase fiasco and we would not have been angry at america----our pilots would have been flying a 3.5 generation plane which would have been upgraded now to the next level to meet the requirements for the next 15 years.

It was because of the rice that pakistan could not retaliate against the ATLANTIQUE that india shot down. With the Mirage 2000, pakistan would have neutralized every other aircraft in the indian arsenal except for the SU 30. Actually, the combat at kargil would have been totally different.

Pakistan, pakistani defence procurement and PAF have their fair share of royal screw ups. It is not all bright at shiny at the PAF. I would say that it was again a failure of the pakistani government, a second time within five years when they cancelled the purchase of these fighters.

A caretaker prime minister must never be allowed to cancel any defence agreements and procurements that have been signed by a representative govt.

Not all kickbakcs are bribes. Quite a few kickbacks go into black projects. You may purchase a learjet showing it to be servicing VIP's, but as a matter of fact it may be used as an electronic surveillance plane.

 

[MIG_ACE]

Sigatoka,
It was because of the rice that pakistan could not retaliate against the ATLANTIQUE that india shot down. With the Mirage 2000, pakistan would have neutralized every other aircraft in the indian arsenal except for the SU 30. Actually, the combat at kargil would have been totally different.

Well india has Miraage-2000s too.So that wud have been an even fight.
However at the time kargil was going on the Pakistani govt. vehemently denied that any pak troops were involved in the fighting.So the use of PAF against IAF wud have contradicted their own statements since the IAF had not violated pak airspace.But to be on the safer side the IAF had moved its miraages and Mig-29s to forward bases in J&K.

 

[MastanKhan]

MIG-ACE,

India could never fight with pakistan knowingly that it was on equal grounds.
You see, the combat scenario changes with pakistan having 100 mirage 2000 planes in 1999. What was not acknowledged without those planes would have been a totally different story.

 

[sigatoka]

1. what i dont understand is that WHY in every discussion about Pakistan's military or economic development, China is always dragged in!!

2. I mean does India when it talks about its economic development bring in Russia or the US?

3. You are commiting a serious folly if you think that a booming China will be able to make Pakistan boom along with it.

4. Every nation becomes economically strong on its own base.Stop asking China for everyhting...make things yourself, ask the president to put reforms on full face, be self dependent.

5. everywhere u read, its china china china for anything that is related to pakistan, whether gwadar, or planes, or manufacturing or whatever.

6. There are no permanent alliances,,,Pakistan is in for a huge shock if it thinks that China is the solution to all its problems.

1. Because without China Pakistan simply doesnt have the economies of scale to develop competitive tanks and planes and artillery and so on. China gives Paksitan vast economies of scale, military equipment can be designed for both markets and take advantage of the fact that military production (like most industrial production) is subject to fallings cost per unit becasue of learning by doing.

2. Because India is to big to ever be a strategic partner of Russia and U.S. who while are willing to coperate, are always aware that India is a competitor in the global arena.

3. And you are committing a folly in assuming that Pakistan can not leverage China's meteoric rise to its advantage.

4. Pakistan's relationship with China is mutually beneficial, otherwise China wouldnt even bother with Pakistan. Pakistan is the closest in the entire world that China has to being a strategic ally.

With U.S., Japan and Europe circling like vultures, even a China on a meteoric rise needs some friends. Pakistan fills the role brilliantly for a number of reasons.

5. What matters is not how results are achieved, but how they are achieved.

6. Call it whatever you like, China's and Pakistan's relationship is deep based on strong fundamentals and if anything is only deepening as the world is heading for the new confrontation between U.S. and China since the U.S. has committed to withdrawing from Iraq in 24 months.

Who else does China have? India? Russia? Indonesia? Malaysia? These nations either have too diverging interests to China or simply doesnt have the weight to throw around.

 

[sigatoka]

Sigatoka,

1. Rice won't hold upto indian aggression. Pakistan would have bought the Mirage 2000 a replacement for the F 16's in the early 90's, we would have forgotten about the F 16 purchase fiasco and we would not have been angry at america----our pilots would have been flying a 3.5 generation plane which would have been upgraded now to the next level to meet the requirements for the next 15 years.

2. It was because of the rice that pakistan could not retaliate against the ATLANTIQUE that india shot down. With the Mirage 2000, pakistan would have neutralized every other aircraft in the indian arsenal except for the SU 30. Actually, the combat at kargil would have been totally different.

lol, i thought you were talking about Ms Rice. Anyways.

1. You missed the point totally, my critisism was aimed at the F-16 deal. The point of my previous post was to emphasise the importance of joint projects like FC-1 in developing Pakistan's industrial base and technological stock with joint production with China.

2. I disagree, a few extra Mirages would have made no differnece. F-16's were capable but not a single engagement occured because the Kargil campaign was bereft of any strategic thinking.

If Pakistan is really bent on more Kargil type missions (and i think that would be a mistake) what it requires is more of Artillery (and of higher quality), more shoulder launched aa missiles for infantry. Better quality equipment for infantry such as night vision goggles and advanced anti-tank missiles.

Because a Kargil type operation wouldnt ever have enough men to capture Kashmir (and therefore by extension wouldnt ever be meant to do that). So a Kargil type operation is aimed at capturing some territory and then delivering highest possible attrition to Indian forces within conflagrating situation into all out war where Planes and Tanks come into the equation. Therefore a better armed and equiped infantry would be the order of the day. After all the billions of dollars of F-16's scored not a kill, the same which cant be said of the humble shoulder launched AA missile (which cost merely a tenth if not even less).

 

[MIG_ACE]

MIG-ACE,

India could never fight with pakistan knowingly that it was on equal grounds.
You see, the combat scenario changes with pakistan having 100 mirage 2000 planes in 1999. What was not acknowledged without those planes would have been a totally different story.

India wasnt on equal grounds in kargil.In a terrain like that if u hold the heights u are in a much more advantageous situation and pakistan did control the heights.
Secondly India did not have any choice but to fight since it was pakistan who fired the first shot and tried to take some land.
And u missed my point about pakistan denying any role in the affair at that time.Using the PAF wud have been a dead giveaway.

 

[Contrarian]

1. Because without China Pakistan simply doesnt have the economies of scale to develop competitive tanks and planes and artillery and so on. China gives Paksitan vast economies of scale, military equipment can be designed for both markets and take advantage of the fact that military production (like most industrial production) is subject to fallings cost per unit becasue of learning by doing.

2. Because India is to big to ever be a strategic partner of Russia and U.S. who while are willing to coperate, are always aware that India is a competitor in the global arena.

However still, Russia tries to form an alliance with us including China.Safe to say that even though India as big as it is, can make strategic alliances if it has deep relations with a country, eg russia.

3. And you are committing a folly in assuming that Pakistan can not leverage China's meteoric rise to its advantage.

I know that it is stupid of me to assume that Pakistan would not leverage China for its advantage. I dont think so one bit. Pakistan is already doing so for a considerable time now, wrt gwadar, and loads of more things.

4. Pakistan's relationship with China is mutually beneficial, otherwise China wouldnt even bother with Pakistan. Pakistan is the closest in the entire world that China has to being a strategic ally.

With U.S., Japan and Europe circling like vultures, even a China on a meteoric rise needs some friends. Pakistan fills the role brilliantly for a number of reasons.

True, but you would agree, that China supplies Pakistan to make sure it remanis a threat to India. In the future, when India and China solve their border problems and things move forward, do u think there will still be the need to do that? Especially with Russia CONSTANTLY harping that a multipolar world is needed and Russia, India, and China will fit the bill like a dream couple.

5. What matters is not how results are achieved, but how they are achieved.

True, but for future preparedness, one needs to stand up on one's own base to be really counted. Otherwise, though the results may be achieved like hte buying of F-16's to counter India, there can be future problems unless you can do it yourself, like sourcing more planes and spares, example intended metamorphically not literally.

6. Call it whatever you like, China's and Pakistan's relationship is deep based on strong fundamentals and if anything is only deepening as the world is heading for the new confrontation between U.S. and China since the U.S. has committed to withdrawing from Iraq in 24 months.

Who else does China have? India? Russia? Indonesia? Malaysia? These nations either have too diverging interests to China or simply doesnt have the weight to throw around.

Like i said, when the border problems with India get resolved, there is a big capacity for India and China to be allies. I say this not as though half the stupid politicians in India would have sense to do that.Im saying that as Russia is trying constantly for it. Anyways, Indian and Chinese relations are already warming up.

 

[sigatoka]

1. However still, Russia tries to form an alliance with us including China.Safe to say that even though India as big as it is, can make strategic alliances if it has deep relations with a country, eg russia.


2. True, but you would agree, that China supplies Pakistan to make sure it remanis a threat to India. In the future, when India and China solve their border problems and things move forward, do u think there will still be the need to do that? Especially with Russia CONSTANTLY harping that a multipolar world is needed and Russia, India, and China will fit the bill like a dream couple.

3. True, but for future preparedness, one needs to stand up on one's own base to be really counted. Otherwise, though the results may be achieved like hte buying of F-16's to counter India, there can be future problems unless you can do it yourself, like sourcing more planes and spares, example intended metamorphically not literally.

4. Like i said, when the border problems with India get resolved, there is a big capacity for India and China to be allies. I say this not as though half the stupid politicians in India would have sense to do that.Im saying that as Russia is trying constantly for it. Anyways, Indian and Chinese relations are already warming up.

1. Russia sees India as a Market, a large market for arms. It sees Iran in the same light and also with the war in Iraq its trying to make inroads in the middle east market. Russia also sees China as a large arms market as well. I doubt whether the relationship between Russia and India will ever become a strategic alliance for a basic reason that India and China have diverging interests and China is a bigger arms market than India. China's foreign policy is also more stable like India, China is not thinking of shifting arms acquisitions to U.S. while India is. The fact that Russia is forced constantly to balance between China and India prevents a strategic relationship between Russia and India emerging in the short and medium term.

2. Its not simply about China wanting to unbalance India, there is more synergies than just that between Pakistan and China. For e.g. when China develops a technology, sharing it costs nothing extra to China but it benefits Pakistan immensily (which is further behind than China in technology) because Paksitan doesnt have to replicate same thing. China cant do this with India because simply even if they didnt have border problem India would remain an economic and political competitor in global arena. Russia, India and China talk about multipolairty but all of them in fact are trying to maximise their own influence and power.

3. When the F-16's were bought China wasnt around with its industrial and technological base. Why are more being bought? I think its a mistake but its a marginal decision. This is because since F-16's have already been bought, buying more will not further complicate logistics and training and its a familiar plane the same which cant be said if another western jet was bought. Personally i think Pakistan would have done better with more FC-1's, continuing to upgrade and maintain the exisiting F-16 stock, spending mroe on ground based air defence and armour and artillery. Unfortuantely i dont make the decisions.

4. Its not just about the border problem, its just that India is too big and powerful to be a strategic ally of China, the fact that there is a common border hurts even more. There is an element of hysterisis in international relations, for e.g. if the border war hadnt happened there would have been a greater probability that India and China would have had much better relations bordering on beign allies.

China and India's trade relations are warming up, but that says nothing. After all China and U.S. trade is massive yet the chance of war is undiminshed. If anything by making both sides more prosperous, it has made the eventual war that does happen much more catastrophic.