The Fighter Gap

[Contrarian]

1. Russia sees India as a Market, a large market for arms. It sees Iran in the same light and also with the war in Iraq its trying to make inroads in the middle east market. Russia also sees China as a large arms market as well. I doubt whether the relationship between Russia and India will ever become a strategic alliance for a basic reason that India and China have diverging interests and China is a bigger arms market than India. China's foreign policy is also more stable like India, China is not thinking of shifting arms acquisitions to U.S. while India is. The fact that Russia is forced constantly to balance between China and India prevents a strategic relationship between Russia and India emerging in the short and medium term.

2. Its not simply about China wanting to unbalance India, there is more synergies than just that between Pakistan and China. For e.g. when China develops a technology, sharing it costs nothing extra to China but it benefits Pakistan immensily (which is further behind than China in technology) because Paksitan doesnt have to replicate same thing. China cant do this with India because simply even if they didnt have border problem India would remain an economic and political competitor in global arena. Russia, India and China talk about multipolairty but all of them in fact are trying to maximise their own influence and power.

3. When the F-16's were bought China wasnt around with its industrial and technological base. Why are more being bought? I think its a mistake but its a marginal decision. This is because since F-16's have already been bought, buying more will not further complicate logistics and training and its a familiar plane the same which cant be said if another western jet was bought. Personally i think Pakistan would have done better with more FC-1's, continuing to upgrade and maintain the exisiting F-16 stock, spending mroe on ground based air defence and armour and artillery. Unfortuantely i dont make the decisions.

4. Its not just about the border problem, its just that India is too big and powerful to be a strategic ally of China, the fact that there is a common border hurts even more. There is an element of hysterisis in international relations, for e.g. if the border war hadnt happened there would have been a greater probability that India and China would have had much better relations bordering on beign allies.

China and India's trade relations are warming up, but that says nothing. After all China and U.S. trade is massive yet the chance of war is undiminshed. If anything by making both sides more prosperous, it has made the eventual war that does happen much more catastrophic.

1. India and Russia have moved far beyond the market type relationship or the buyer seller relationship. We now co develop new technologies with Russia. Only in some areas, does that relationship hold where India still does not have the technical capabilities as of yet. I repeat, India JV's everything with Russia now, we are allies to them. China on the other hand still has that relationship with Russia, as Russia is not keen to JV cutting edge technologies with China. There is a level of mistrust on both sides for Russia and China.

2.Multipolarity can occur only when other countries can exert influence on the global arena and not only the US. This is what India, China and Russia are trying to do.Maximizing and expanding their power is the only way to make the world multipolar. That is exactly what multipolarity is. Multipolarity does not mean that every country on earth gets equal say.It means some countries gain enough influence to put up a counter to the existing US dominance in every affair all over the globe.

3.Whatever you deem good

4.Just because a country is big you cannot say that it cant form a strategic alliance with another big country.This is a flawed logic.

 

[Sid]

4.Just because a country is big you cannot say that it cant form a strategic alliance with another big country.This is a flawed logic.

While that may be true in some cases; India and China or India and Russia, or India and US can never have a 'strategic alliance' in the true meaning of the phrase since two large countries can ONLY co-exist in a strategic alliance when one of them does not have expansionist designs in the works. For example, take US and Canada. It works out fine (even though they share common border) because Canada does not have expansionist or domination plans.

Russia, China and India all have expansionist and domination plans with currently, Russia and China being the passive ones. So a strategic alliance cannot really function for long (even it is assumed that one can be forged) as down the line, conflict is rest assured (not necessarily war, but conflict of policy, ideologies, etc).



Something to ponder: Taking a hypothetical example, what do you think would happen when the current expantionist designs of the Indian Navy come of age and IN starts to challenge the USN in the Arabian Sea and/or the Indian Ocean?

 

[vnomad]

While that may be true in some cases; India and China or Something to ponder: Taking a hypothetical example, what do you think would happen when the current expantionist designs of the Indian Navy come of age and IN starts to challenge the USN in the Arabian Sea and/or the Indian Ocean?

The RN and the USN never had any problems in the Atlantic.
But, for the sake of an argument lets say the IN does expand. It will never be in a position to challenge the USN. So I don't believe it will affect any strategic partnership that may exist between the countries.

 

[MIG_ACE]

The USN has no strategic interests in the Arabian sea or Indian ocean other than ensuring that there cargo ships and oil tankers get thru without problems.They had even recently asked the IN to provide protection to some US merchant ships in the Malacca straits(or maybe some other place i'm not sure).
The main areas of strategic importance to USN are the atlantic and pacific.After the fall of the USSR they are already the unchallenged masters of the atlantic. But china can seriouslychallenge them in the pacific.The USN wud be keeping a watch on the ever expanding chinese navy more.

 

[Munir]

Large complex discussions. Cool. Let me put it simple.

The reason US is sponsoring India is to counter China and India in the oil market. They are totally not intrested in anything else. The US knows that both China and India are growing rapidly and will use neighbouring oilfields. By countering them the US thinks that it will win, the problem is that China is not intrested in US policies as long as they are discriminating. Unfortunately India fellt for the nuclear charmes but I bet they are not that un-informed or willing to accept good weather mentallity of the USA. Unfortunalely it will not be a rapid reaction but surely it will be there.

 

[MIG_ACE]

Dear Munir,
India did not "fall" for "nuclear charmes".The fact is that india needs uranium for its future nuclear power plants and it does not have enough reserves.Till now it was denied foreign uranium.If the nuclear deal goes thru that will change.
Secondly in what way is US sponsoring India?? Please elaborate.
As far as US weapons are concerned till now India was denied these too due to cold war mentality. And india hasnt bought any american military hardware except weapon locating radars and Bell helicopters(ongoing acquisition). The other weapons namelyF-16s and F-18s have only been offered and will be bought only if the IAF feels that they suit it better than Russian or french counterparts.

 

[Munir]

Unfortunately I do not know your real name so it has to be something like:

Dear Mig_ace,

The nuclear charmes are busy with forcing India not to get Iranian oil lines through Pakistan. They are even risking Indian nuclear buildup (no NPT is signed by India) cause they want to stop Iran getting more dangerous for Israel. It might get more power if it exports fuel to India. And India is hungry for USA attention. You do remember that India was ready to allow USA bomb Pakistan and Afghanistan after 911? How on earth can one allow uranium to a country that has not signed NPT? Only if there ware other factors like countering China and Iran. So charming India is very well a reality. And India's hunger to be accepted as a worldpower is just fuel for the foreplay.


India and western weapons are another item... India is ready to run to anyone to counter any Pakistani import. Even if Pakistan blink then they are on CNN or in that particular nation to start negotiating the same. But India never buys without millions of problems. Remember Hawk deal with UK... They were busy with Gripen and they cannot get enough by pressing Russia not to deliver RD93 to Pakistan... US sees India as en export market. If they can earn lots of cash and get manipulation margin (spare parts/control) then why not? They are not offering F22 or JSF... The question is whether India can handle those weapons if they have enough problems with Russians (Mig21 and other spare part problems).

btw Pakistan did just got Block52 cause they are near to get it from China. and I bet it is probably last contract with USA cause China is rapidly improving. And sofar China treats Pakistan very well. It never changed even when everyone expected that.

 

[vnomad]

Unfortunately I do not know your real name so it has to be something like:

Dear Mig_ace,

The nuclear charmes are busy with forcing India not to get Iranian oil lines through Pakistan. They are even risking Indian nuclear buildup (no NPT is signed by India) cause they want to stop Iran getting more dangerous for Israel. It might get more power if it exports fuel to India. And India is hungry for USA attention. You do remember that India was ready to allow USA bomb Pakistan and Afghanistan after 911? How on earth can one allow uranium to a country that has not signed NPT? Only if there ware other factors like countering China and Iran. So charming India is very well a reality. And India's hunger to be accepted as a worldpower is just fuel for the foreplay.


India and western weapons are another item... India is ready to run to anyone to counter any Pakistani import. Even if Pakistan blink then they are on CNN or in that particular nation to start negotiating the same. But India never buys without millions of problems. Remember Hawk deal with UK... They were busy with Gripen and they cannot get enough by pressing Russia not to deliver RD93 to Pakistan... US sees India as en export market. If they can earn lots of cash and get manipulation margin (spare parts/control) then why not? They are not offering F22 or JSF... The question is whether India can handle those weapons if they have enough problems with Russians (Mig21 and other spare part problems).

btw Pakistan did just got Block52 cause they are near to get it from China. and I bet it is probably last contract with USA cause China is rapidly improving. And sofar China treats Pakistan very well. It never changed even when everyone expected that.

Munir,
Well befriending the US even if it a sort of a pseudo friendship doesn't hurt. The nuclear deal (despite the commies shouting themselves hoarse) is a winning deal for India. US influence will also probably bear on the NSG to grant India an exception. Besides that the JSF could well find itself in IAF colours around 2015. Saying that we can't manage it is like the fox saying that the grapes are sour. The MiG 21s are aging fighters and problems with those are inevitable. The quality of pilots flying the F-35 will also be the best the IAF can come up with.
US sees India as an export market? Well India sees the US as an import market too. US defence tech is unrivalled. No argument. Defence ties with Russia may suffer but with India bankrolling future Russian projects they shouldn't put up too much of a fuss.
Regards
'V'

 

[Contrarian]

While that may be true in some cases; India and China or India and Russia, or India and US can never have a 'strategic alliance' in the true meaning of the phrase since two large countries can ONLY co-exist in a strategic alliance when one of them does not have expansionist designs in the works. For example, take US and Canada. It works out fine (even though they share common border) because Canada does not have expansionist or domination plans.

Russia, China and India all have expansionist and domination plans with currently, Russia and China being the passive ones. So a strategic alliance cannot really function for long (even it is assumed that one can be forged) as down the line, conflict is rest assured (not necessarily war, but conflict of policy, ideologies, etc).



Something to ponder: Taking a hypothetical example, what do you think would happen when the current expantionist designs of the Indian Navy come of age and IN starts to challenge the USN in the Arabian Sea and/or the Indian Ocean?

Take the example of US and India, US and India can share the global environment, India may be left as the only major super power in the IOR(Indian Ocean Region), whereas US can tighten its stronghold in other parts of the globe diverting its resources here, leaving this South Asian Region under India. This works well for both the countries. And seeing as US now regularly asks IN for security for its ships crossing the IOR, the above design seems in the offing. Reducing the USN's role here and thereby diverting resources elsewhere. Helping India get anything and everythig that it requires along the way.Kind of the way UK and US are now. Thus both the nations become unchallengeable. Any threat which India deems as very serious will result in US deploying its Navy or other forces here to aid India.

And also thinking about the official statement by US sometime back, which was that "goal is to help India become a major world power in the 21st century. We understand fully the implications, including military implications, of that statement." So it seems that US has some sort of scheme in mind as it obviously will not try and give India an edge in millitary so that there is a conflict with the US itself.

Now take the example of Russia and India. Russia has absolutely no plans to engage actively in S.Asia. So what if a mutual relationship is forged wherby Russia is active in its relative region and India is active in its relative region, thereby reducing US influence in both places.And an treaty of friendship with which any attack on one nation will cause the other one to join iin the fray. Thus, ensuring both nations remain risk free from any other country.

India and China on the other hand are a more complex design.But like everything else, if there is a basic level of trust b/w the nations, it CAN be achieved.

 

[sigatoka]

India may be left as the only major super power in the IOR(Indian Ocean Region), whereas US can tighten its stronghold in other parts of the globe diverting its resources here, leaving this South Asian Region under India. This works well for both the countries. And seeing as US now regularly asks IN for security for its ships crossing the IOR, the above design seems in the offing. Reducing the USN's role here and thereby diverting resources elsewhere. Helping India get anything and everythig that it requires along the way.Kind of the way UK and US are now. Thus both the nations become unchallengeable. Any threat which India deems as very serious will result in US deploying its Navy or other forces here to aid India.

Its not as if Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are just going to roll over and let India dominate the entire high seas (Bangladesh included just because of proximity).

All these nations have large growing economies and Saudi Arabia and Iran in particular will now able to devote more resources to Naval acquisitions with Saddam's Republican guards gone.

 

[MIG_ACE]

How on earth can one allow uranium to a country that has not signed NPT? Only if there ware other factors like countering China and Iran.

That is for the US to decide.India wont be signing the NPT in the near future.
But if the US feels that it is OK hell we are not going to stop them.U cant blame india for asking. If there are other factors again its the USs concern.We dont care. Coz If they dump india in the future we wont be any worse off than we are now.So as long as it lasts we want to take full advntg of the deal.(if it is passed by US congress.It is not decided yet.) In any case this is not "Sponsoring".India will be charged international rates for every gram of uranium it buys.

AND pakistan is also asking for a similar deal I believe.

 

[vnomad]

AND pakistan is also asking for a similar deal I believe.

They were refused one. The US administration publically said that Pakistan's record on nuclear non-proliferation wasn't all that great.

 

[Munir]

Well you cannot blame Pakistan for that. If they sell it to India then Why not its neighbour?

 

[MIG_ACE]

We are not blaming pakistan.Did we ever say that it shud not have asked for a deal?? We know its their right to ask.But India did not tell the US to refuse it.

 

[vnomad]

Well you cannot blame Pakistan for that. If they sell it to India then Why not its neighbour?

Remember AQ Khan. I doubt if the US fell for Musharraf's explanation that he was operating without the official sanction of top brass.