The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

[Sineva]

Does US want to accelerate Iran's nuclear program? Absolutely no.
It's just the continuation of their propaganda while holding to their maximum pressure economic sanctions.

Yes,no genuine good will gestures or concessions here [no surprise],in fact this was simply nothing more than your typical pure cynical self interest on the wests part[as usual] with a little bit of spin thrown in to make it look like some good will gesture.
In reality this was all about the wests fear of an iranian plutonium pathway to the bomb via a non modified arak reactor.

 

[_Nabil_]

Another disaster deal is incoming when many users here proclaimed for months if not years Iran would NEVER return to JCPOA...and yet here we are.

But Iran’s resistance economy has largely failed to shield iran from brutal effects of sanctions and inflation is running high. So 2-3 years of oil income before the US Republicans come to rip up the deal is better than nothing is what Iran’s logic is at this time.

Raisi admin has shown the same ineptitude as the reformist admin in many regards. And that is the crux of the problem, I have said this over and over again, the problems of the Republic are structural in nature NOT the mistakes of one party/faction/ideology.

The lack of economic vision and innovative economic policy is killing Iran....on top of sanctions and corruption which have been around in one form or another for decades.

There is no easy solution. When nepotism, cronyism, and corruption are systemic and widespread, removing one or two bad actors is like filling in one or two craters on the moon....won’t make a damn difference.

Is it official?

‘Final stage’ of Vienna talks on Iran nuclear deal to resume

Delegations are set to re-enter negotiations in the Austrian capital but significant hurdles remain.

www.aljazeera.com

Oil market are optimistic !!

Oil drops after scorching rally as markets eye Iran nuclear deal - BNN Bloomberg

Oil dropped to trade near US$91 a barrel, pausing a rally that’s propelled crude to its highest since 2014.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

 

[Shawnee]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1490770229881933831

Same desk
Same distance

 

[mohsen]

Another disaster deal is incoming when many users here proclaimed for months if not years Iran would NEVER return to JCPOA...and yet here we are.

But Iran’s resistance economy has largely failed to shield iran from brutal effects of sanctions and inflation is running high. So 2-3 years of oil income before the US Republicans come to rip up the deal is better than nothing is what Iran’s logic is at this time.

Raisi admin has shown the same ineptitude as the reformist admin in many regards. And that is the crux of the problem, I have said this over and over again, the problems of the Republic are structural in nature NOT the mistakes of one party/faction/ideology.

The lack of economic vision and innovative economic policy is killing Iran....on top of sanctions and corruption which have been around in one form or another for decades.

There is no easy solution. When nepotism, cronyism, and corruption are systemic and widespread, removing one or two bad actors is like filling in one or two craters on the moon....won’t make a damn difference.

Actually there has been great differences between current and the previous administration, they received a government with lots of debt and enormous budget shortage, yet still hasn't printed any rial, and lots of economic and infrastructure projects have been revived.

And here is our current vision of any future deal, you can call it "Modified JCPOA" in Iran's favor

https://twitter.com/x/status/1483812439896604674

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489961641542365190

https://twitter.com/x/status/1490185117758902272

https://twitter.com/x/status/1490919617316810757

 

[TheImmortal]

Actually there has been great differences between current and the previous administration, they received a government with lots of debt and enormous budget shortage, yet still hasn't printed any rial, and lots of economic and infrastructure projects have been revived.

And here is our current vision of any future deal, you can call it "Modified JCPOA" in Iran's favor

https://twitter.com/x/status/1483812439896604674

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489961641542365190

https://twitter.com/x/status/1490185117758902272

https://twitter.com/x/status/1490919617316810757

The mental gymnastics you guys jump thru to sell this new deal is hilarious. Mohsen was adamant there would be no deal that Iran left JCPOA for good.

Maximum pressure didn’t fail per se, Iran’s economy is a disaster. Protests are at all time highs from teachers, automotive workers, healthcare workers, etc. inflation is running above 30% and 60% of the country is in poverty. Prostitution at all time highs. This is not sustainable, it’s damaging the fabric of society. Yes the government isn’t close to collapse as the West intended, but if the West cannot destroy the government it will destroy its people and their livelihood instead. Just ask Saddam and North Korea.

All Iran can do is the nuclear escalation card in response to sanctions, the issue with the nuclear escalation card is that if you don’t intend to go nuclear there is only so much blackmail you can do. You can increase enrichment, you can make uranium metal, you can install advanced centrifuges. But if the will to go nuclear is not there, then eventually you run out of **** to do to piss off the West.

This “modified” JCPOA is a DISASTER. The breakout time will be 6 months from 12. But Iran is exchanging centrifuges and fuel for the right to sell its oil. That is not a CONCESSION that is not a GIFT that is a MOCKERY. Iran was selling oil from 1979 to 2009 without any issues. The west took what was a given for Iran and now is presenting it as if they are doing Iran a favor.

A real concession would be removal of US trade embargo. A real concession would be Western investment in Iran with ToT the same treatment Turkish economy got for 20 years.

Selling oil 2M barrels of oil again in exchange of most nuclear leverage (centrifuges, fuel, enrichment level) is a joke.

We made fun of Rouhani for the disastrous 2015 JCPOA, and now Iranian establishment is trying to pat itself on the back for the 2022 JCPOA that is basically the same terms as before with some minor modifications.

But-But-But Maximum Pressure didn’t work! Is what people like Mohsen will say. Yes it didn’t work as intended. But they managed to significantly hamper the Iranian economy, murder a high ranking Iranian general, murder a high ranking Iranian nuclear scientists, caused HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of dollars in damages to Iran, and they STILL coerced Iran back into the deal with no fines for damages or major concessions.

This is what you call a “win”? Seems quite delusional.

The only reason Iran is at the negotiating table is because it’s economy is doing poorly and it’s money remains frozen around the world. For all the bravado of attacking South Korea, the money has remained stuck in SK. If Iran truly had a working resistance economy, it would not be negotiating. It’s negotiating because it needs sanctions lifted. Now it can say Maximum pressure failed and we are still standing, but let’s call a spade a spade.

 

[aryobarzan]

The mental gymnastics you guys jump thru to sell this new deal is hilarious. Mohsen was adamant there would be no deal that Iran left JCPOA for good.

Maximum pressure didn’t fail per se, Iran’s economy is a disaster. Protests are at all time highs from teachers, automotive workers, healthcare workers, etc. inflation is running above 30% and 60% of the country is in poverty. Prostitution at all time highs. This is not sustainable, it’s damaging the fabric of society. Yes the government isn’t close to collapse as the West intended, but if the West cannot destroy the government it will destroy its people and their livelihood instead. Just ask Saddam and North Korea.

All Iran can do is the nuclear escalation card in response to sanctions, the issue with the nuclear escalation card is that if you don’t intend to go nuclear there is only so much blackmail you can do. You can increase enrichment, you can make uranium metal, you can install advanced centrifuges. But if the will to go nuclear is not there, then eventually you run out of **** to do to piss off the West.

This “modified” JCPOA is a DISASTER. The breakout time will be 6 months from 12. But Iran is exchanging centrifuges and fuel for the right to sell its oil. That is not a CONCESSION that is not a GIFT that is a MOCKERY. Iran was selling oil from 1979 to 2009 without any issues. The west took what was a given for Iran and now is presenting it as if they are doing Iran a favor.

A real concession would be removal of US trade embargo. A real concession would be Western investment in Iran with ToT the same treatment Turkish economy got for 20 years.

Selling oil 2M barrels of oil again in exchange of most nuclear leverage (centrifuges, fuel, enrichment level) is a joke.

We made fun of Rouhani for the disastrous 2015 JCPOA, and now Iranian establishment is trying to pat itself on the back for the 2022 JCPOA that is basically the same terms as before with some minor modifications.

But-But-But Maximum Pressure didn’t work! Is what people like Mohsen will say. Yes it didn’t work as intended. But they managed to significantly hamper the Iranian economy, murder a high ranking Iranian general, murder a high ranking Iranian nuclear scientists, caused HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of dollars in damages to Iran, and they STILL coerced Iran back into the deal with no fines for damages or major concessions.

This is what you call a “win”? Seems quite delusional.

The only reason Iran is at the negotiating table is because it’s economy is doing poorly and it’s money remains frozen around the world. For all the bravado of attacking South Korea, the money has remained stuck in SK. If Iran truly had a working resistance economy, it would not be negotiating. It’s negotiating because it needs sanctions lifted. Now it can say Maximum pressure failed and we are still standing, but let’s call a spade a spade.

Completely disagree:


Iran's economy is growing. (look at the infrastructure section).

Iran no longer needs sanction relief for selling oil, the machinery to sell oil is already working so no more a leverage for US.

Sanction relief for Trade from the west is desirable but not required ..China MOU will help in that domain..

so overall..Iran is now in much stronger position with regards to JCPOA negotiations..I still think US will not agree to Iran's red lines and this Vienna talks will fail.

 

[Raghfarm007]

One can look at the numbers in industrial output in Iran before and after the maximum pressure, and see where Iran´s economy stands. Today for example Iran is the 10th largest producer of steel in the world, this was not the case when JCPOA was signed...

 

[SalarHaqq]

One can look at the numbers in industrial output in Iran before and after the maximum pressure, and see where Iran´s economy stands. Today for example Iran is the 10th largest producer of steel in the world, this was not the case when JCPOA was signed...

Fully agreed.

A little detail on a sidenote: in fact the JCPOA wasn't signed, as you probably also know. It was not a proper international accord, but more of a political understanding. The only thing which tended to make its dispositions more or less binding from the legal point of view, is the subsequent UN Security Council resolution which endorsed the JCPOA.

This is extremely common however. I even heard Javad Zarif himself in a slip of the tongue, erroneously mention that the JCPOA was signed. Same goes for former NIAC head Trita Parsi, who followed the negotiations process very closely though, and whose association used to be in direct contact with Zarif's team in Vienna. It's almost a daily occurrence. Here's a fresh example now from a large mainstream media, Al-Jazeera:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/7/final-stage-of-vienna-talks-on-irans-nuclear-deal-to-resume

I regularly remind friends of this when I get the opportunity, because although a detail, it's not totally insignificant I believe.

 

[SalarHaqq]

But-But-But Maximum Pressure didn’t work! Is what people like Mohsen will say. Yes it didn’t work as intended. But they managed to significantly hamper the Iranian economy, murder a high ranking Iranian general, murder a high ranking Iranian nuclear scientists, caused HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of dollars in damages to Iran, and they STILL coerced Iran back into the deal with no fines for damages or major concessions.

The aim of the so-called "maximum pressure" policy was not to coerce Iran back into the JCPOA. As a matter of fact, when Iran stopped complying with its initial JCPOA obligations, Trump had already launched the policy for a whole year or more. The explicitly stated goal was to extract concessions beyond the JCPOA, on a whole range of issues including nuclear and non-nuclear related ones. And this unambiguously failed.

 

[mohsen]

The mental gymnastics you guys jump thru to sell this new deal is hilarious. Mohsen was adamant there would be no deal that Iran left JCPOA for good.

Maximum pressure didn’t fail per se, Iran’s economy is a disaster. Protests are at all time highs from teachers, automotive workers, healthcare workers, etc. inflation is running above 30% and 60% of the country is in poverty. Prostitution at all time highs. This is not sustainable, it’s damaging the fabric of society. Yes the government isn’t close to collapse as the West intended, but if the West cannot destroy the government it will destroy its people and their livelihood instead. Just ask Saddam and North Korea.

All Iran can do is the nuclear escalation card in response to sanctions, the issue with the nuclear escalation card is that if you don’t intend to go nuclear there is only so much blackmail you can do. You can increase enrichment, you can make uranium metal, you can install advanced centrifuges. But if the will to go nuclear is not there, then eventually you run out of **** to do to piss off the West.

This “modified” JCPOA is a DISASTER. The breakout time will be 6 months from 12. But Iran is exchanging centrifuges and fuel for the right to sell its oil. That is not a CONCESSION that is not a GIFT that is a MOCKERY. Iran was selling oil from 1979 to 2009 without any issues. The west took what was a given for Iran and now is presenting it as if they are doing Iran a favor.

A real concession would be removal of US trade embargo. A real concession would be Western investment in Iran with ToT the same treatment Turkish economy got for 20 years.

Selling oil 2M barrels of oil again in exchange of most nuclear leverage (centrifuges, fuel, enrichment level) is a joke.

We made fun of Rouhani for the disastrous 2015 JCPOA, and now Iranian establishment is trying to pat itself on the back for the 2022 JCPOA that is basically the same terms as before with some minor modifications.

But-But-But Maximum Pressure didn’t work! Is what people like Mohsen will say. Yes it didn’t work as intended. But they managed to significantly hamper the Iranian economy, murder a high ranking Iranian general, murder a high ranking Iranian nuclear scientists, caused HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of dollars in damages to Iran, and they STILL coerced Iran back into the deal with no fines for damages or major concessions.

This is what you call a “win”? Seems quite delusional.

The only reason Iran is at the negotiating table is because it’s economy is doing poorly and it’s money remains frozen around the world. For all the bravado of attacking South Korea, the money has remained stuck in SK. If Iran truly had a working resistance economy, it would not be negotiating. It’s negotiating because it needs sanctions lifted. Now it can say Maximum pressure failed and we are still standing, but let’s call a spade a spade.

What Iran is looking for isn't just selling the oil (which even this didn't exist in the JCPOA), Iran is demanding the end of all sanctions, plus the verification and an all aspect guarantee (legal/political and economical), even JCPOA didn't grant us such a thing let alone it's dead corpse, but on the other side we only accept the limitations of the JCPOA which are on the sunset and we have already crossed and are irreversible like the R&D. we are also looking for the compensation, so overall this time it will be a one sided deal in our favor. it's either this or nothing.

I still see no chance for such a deal, but there is no reason to not negotiate for it either. effect of sanctions wasn't beyond 20 or 30 percent, liberal instructions and theories were the real cause of damage, in fact in the very first year of JCPOA implementation, our currency started to collapse, that's the actual evidence which people like you try to ignore.

They murdered an unarmed Iranian official (ISIS style) and we humiliated them by striking their military base when they were fully prepared, and till today several high rank American and Zionist officers involved in the incident have droped dead, their iconic $220 milion drone crosed out sea borders and we shot it down. they murdered one of our scientists and we murdered their scientist. they wanted to cut off Syria from Iran. but now Iran's presence in Syria is stronger than ever, now a second Iran (not just a proxy) is rising in Yemen which will have an unprecedented geopolitical impact beyond the middle east.

Those who complain about the (unproven) increase of prostitution are the same ones whose dream is to increase it (west style) and make it legal.

 

[Saddam Hussein]

What Iran is looking for isn't just selling the oil (which even this didn't exist in the JCPOA), Iran is demanding the end of all sanctions, plus the verification and an all aspect guarantee (legal/political and economical), even JCPOA didn't grant us such a thing let alone it's dead corpse, but on the other side we only accept the limitations of the JCPOA which are on the sunset and we have already crossed and are irreversible like the R&D. we are also looking for the compensation, so overall this time it will be a one sided deal in our favor. it's either this or nothing.

I still see no chance for such a deal, but there is no reason to not negotiate for it either. effect of sanctions wasn't beyond 20 or 30 percent, liberal instructions and theories were the real cause of damage, in fact in the very first year of JCPOA implementation, our currency started to collapse, that's the actual evidence which people like you try to ignore.

They murdered an unarmed Iranian official (ISIS style) and we humiliated them by striking their military base when they were fully prepared, and till today several high rank American and Zionist officers involved in the incident have droped dead, their iconic $220 milion drone crosed out sea borders and we shot it down. they murdered one of our scientists and we murdered their scientist. they wanted to cut off Syria from Iran. but now Iran's presence in Syria is stronger than ever, now a second Iran (not just a proxy) is rising in Yemen which will have an unprecedented geopolitical impact beyond the middle east.

Those who complain about the (unproven) increase of prostitution are the same ones whose dream is to increase it (west style) and make it legal.

They made you shoot down an airliner full of Iranians, then you tried to hide it and eventually the irgc admitted they did it.

How'd you humiliate them, wake tf up

 

[mohsen]

They made you shoot down an airliner full of Iranians, then you tried to hide it and eventually the irgc admitted they did it.

How'd you humiliate them, wake tf up

They didn't made us, it was a careless operator who disobeyed his directions and opened fire without permission, we didn't hide nothing, we allowed the foreign investigators to inspect the scene from the very first hours, but for 48 hours the general staff was investigating the case to find out whether it has been really our missile, infiltration, sabotage or anything like that and after that the result was announced.

The one who was humiliated was American president who promissed to bomb Iran if we do anything but after our missile attack ordered his army to hide the casualties and while was breathing heavily said they wont do nothing.

 

[TheImmortal]

In geopolitics, any country would take eliminating a nation’s actually an entire region’s brilliant military mind (Solemani) in return for some minor brain injuries and monetary damage on their own forces.

Solemani despite some of his military planning flaws (everyone has flaws), was a type of military mind that comes only a few times per century. I’m not saying he was Alexander the Great or Saladin. However, he was one of the top strategist and more importantly a great communicator/relationship builder, of the last 100 years.

Any country would take that trade off 110 times out of 100. USA got away with a steal of a deal there.

Iran did not exact revenge at all. It merely retaliated, and there is a difference there that will be lost among the Uber nationalist pride of some on this forum.

 

[Stryker1982]

Their are many points @TheImmortal is right about.

Iran being able to sell it's oil and gas again is not a concession, it's Iranian property they blocked, and they are now handing it back as if it is some sort of gift or favor. Their is no denying that the additional revenue that could've been accrued is lost. Probably 100's of billions of dollars could've been gained during this time. So yes, damage has been done.

Their is no guarantees the democrats will be in the white house again so expect that the JCPOA will be destroyed, and sanctions will be re-implemented and oil and gas sales will be blocked. Basically back to square 1. What other option besides building nuclear warheads? For 2-3 years of oil sales to reserve accounts that will get blocked again? They are still negotiating in Vienna so both sides clearly desire a deal that may not last long at all.

I think alot of projects that were put on the shelf due to lack of funding available will be restarted in a boom if Iran sells it's oil at full speed at these current prices (Ahmadinejad era prices). A simple calculation would indicate hundreds of millions of dollars of capital flowing in DAILY.

 

[TheImmortal]

Their are many points @TheImmortal is right about.

Iran being able to sell it's oil and gas again is not a concession, it's Iranian property they blocked, and they are now handing it back as if it is some sort of gift or favor. Their is no denying that the additional revenue that could've been accrued is lost. Probably 100's of billions of dollars could've been gained during this time. So yes, damage has been done.

Their is no guarantees the democrats will be in the white house again so expect that the JCPOA will be destroyed, and sanctions will be re-implemented and oil and gas sales will be blocked. Basically back to square 1. What other option besides building nuclear warheads? For 2-3 years of oil sales to reserve accounts that will get blocked again? They are still negotiating in Vienna so both sides clearly desire a deal that may not last long at all.

I think alot of projects that were put on the shelf due to lack of funding available will be restarted in a boom if Iran sells it's oil at full speed at these current prices (Ahmadinejad era prices). A simple calculation would indicate hundreds of millions of dollars of capital flowing in DAILY.

Iran needs 200B+ USD investment in its oil industry in order to be not become a net importer of gasoline.

Even after a deal, no major oil company will invest in Iran for fear of 2024 Republicans. Biden has a slim chance of getting re-elected if he continues to handle the White House this way.

While Qatar makes billions via LNG, Iran has no LNG facilities or tankers. This is another side effect of US sanctions. No one invested in Iran’s oil and gas industry to make them competitive on the world stage.

Now Iran has ALL of its eggs in the Chinese 20 Year deal basket for energy reinvestment development. A risky proposition.

Such a shame, when history revisits the IR of Iran they will notice that over $1T-3T dollars in potential economic production was lost from 2010-2030. And zero nukes.