Actually there has been great differences between current and the previous administration, they received a government with lots of debt and enormous budget shortage, yet still hasn't printed any rial, and lots of economic and infrastructure projects have been revived.
And here is our current vision of any future deal, you can call it "Modified JCPOA" in Iran's favor
The mental gymnastics you guys jump thru to sell this new deal is hilarious. Mohsen was adamant there would be no deal that Iran left JCPOA for good.
Maximum pressure didn’t fail per se, Iran’s economy is a disaster. Protests are at all time highs from teachers, automotive workers, healthcare workers, etc. inflation is running above 30% and 60% of the country is in poverty. Prostitution at all time highs. This is not sustainable, it’s damaging the fabric of society. Yes the government isn’t close to collapse as the West intended, but if the West cannot destroy the government it will destroy its people and their livelihood instead. Just ask Saddam and North Korea.
All Iran can do is the nuclear escalation card in response to sanctions, the issue with the nuclear escalation card is that if you don’t intend to go nuclear there is only so much blackmail you can do. You can increase enrichment, you can make uranium metal, you can install advanced centrifuges. But if the will to go nuclear is not there, then eventually you run out of **** to do to piss off the West.
This “modified” JCPOA is a DISASTER. The breakout time will be 6 months from 12. But Iran is exchanging centrifuges and fuel for the right to sell its oil. That is not a CONCESSION that is not a GIFT that is a MOCKERY. Iran was selling oil from 1979 to 2009 without any issues. The west took what was a given for Iran and now is presenting it as if they are doing Iran a favor.
A real concession would be removal of US trade embargo. A real concession would be Western investment in Iran with ToT the same treatment Turkish economy got for 20 years.
Selling oil 2M barrels of oil again in exchange of most nuclear leverage (centrifuges, fuel, enrichment level) is a joke.
We made fun of Rouhani for the disastrous 2015 JCPOA, and now Iranian establishment is trying to pat itself on the back for the 2022 JCPOA that is basically the same terms as before with some minor modifications.
But-But-But Maximum Pressure didn’t work! Is what people like Mohsen will say. Yes it didn’t work as intended. But they managed to significantly hamper the Iranian economy, murder a high ranking Iranian general, murder a high ranking Iranian nuclear scientists, caused HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of dollars in damages to Iran, and they
STILL coerced Iran back into the deal with no fines for damages or major concessions.
This is what you call a “win”? Seems quite delusional.
The only reason Iran is at the negotiating table is because it’s economy is doing poorly and it’s money remains frozen around the world. For all the bravado of attacking South Korea, the money has remained stuck in SK. If Iran truly had a working resistance economy, it would not be negotiating. It’s negotiating because it needs sanctions lifted. Now it can say Maximum pressure failed and we are still standing, but let’s call a spade a spade.
