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OIL AND GAS FORECAST TO 2050
The world’s energy system is going through a transition. Over the
next thirty years it will change significantly in its composition as it
decouples from carbon, population and economic growth.
DNV GL’s Energy Transition Outlook seeks to understand the
nature and pace of this change. We have created an independent
forecast of what we believe to be the most likely energy future.
It will inform our own strategic choices over the years to come,
and we hope it will also provide useful insight to our customers,
partners and other stakeholders.
We forecast energy demand to flatten, mainly due to increased
efficiencies in the use of energy, after 2030. Industry across energy
sources and throughout the energy value chain will continue to
make energy available, affordable and clean.
There won’t be a ‘silver bullet’ for sustainable energy production;
instead the world will benefit from a portfolio of technically
sophisticated and cost-effective energy. The oil and gas industry
will continue to play an important role in this portfolio and
hydrocarbons will account for 44% of the total energy mix in
2050. Key areas of demand for fossil fuels will be within heavy
transportation, air and shipping. Gas is predicted to become the
largest energy carrier from 2033 to the end of our forecast period.
Tomorrow’s energy system will be characterized by enhanced
efficiency with reduced waste of energy, cost and resources in
all stages of the value chain. For oil and gas this not only means
enhanced recovery and cost efficiency, but also the use of each
energy source and carrier where it is most effective. A plateau in
demand and cheaper resources will lead to tough competition
between energy sources where supply exceeds demand. There
will be an increased need and opportunity to serve energy systems
with a flexible mix of sources and carriers, and to identify and
exploit synergies between these.
This transition does not come by itself, and the details of the energy
system will vary significantly between regions and countries.
Increased dialogue and collaboration is required to drive the
transition: between industry, policymakers and regulators,
between various parts of the energy industry and between
countries and regions.
www.ourenergypolicy.org › uploads › 2017/09 › DNV...
The world’s energy system is going through a transition. Over the
next thirty years it will change significantly in its composition as it
decouples from carbon, population and economic growth.
DNV GL’s Energy Transition Outlook seeks to understand the
nature and pace of this change. We have created an independent
forecast of what we believe to be the most likely energy future.
It will inform our own strategic choices over the years to come,
and we hope it will also provide useful insight to our customers,
partners and other stakeholders.
We forecast energy demand to flatten, mainly due to increased
efficiencies in the use of energy, after 2030. Industry across energy
sources and throughout the energy value chain will continue to
make energy available, affordable and clean.
There won’t be a ‘silver bullet’ for sustainable energy production;
instead the world will benefit from a portfolio of technically
sophisticated and cost-effective energy. The oil and gas industry
will continue to play an important role in this portfolio and
hydrocarbons will account for 44% of the total energy mix in
2050. Key areas of demand for fossil fuels will be within heavy
transportation, air and shipping. Gas is predicted to become the
largest energy carrier from 2033 to the end of our forecast period.
Tomorrow’s energy system will be characterized by enhanced
efficiency with reduced waste of energy, cost and resources in
all stages of the value chain. For oil and gas this not only means
enhanced recovery and cost efficiency, but also the use of each
energy source and carrier where it is most effective. A plateau in
demand and cheaper resources will lead to tough competition
between energy sources where supply exceeds demand. There
will be an increased need and opportunity to serve energy systems
with a flexible mix of sources and carriers, and to identify and
exploit synergies between these.
This transition does not come by itself, and the details of the energy
system will vary significantly between regions and countries.
Increased dialogue and collaboration is required to drive the
transition: between industry, policymakers and regulators,
between various parts of the energy industry and between
countries and regions.
www.ourenergypolicy.org › uploads › 2017/09 › DNV...