The End of Saudi Arabia’s Illusion

[-=virus=-]

Written by a Bolton flunky ?

 

[raptor22]

Saudis must realize:
The true power is projected from inside backed by your own people not outsiders ..
The same for the region .. security of the region must come from regional countries not military bases ...
The outsiders are after their own interests not yours .. Iran has felt it by her flesh and blood ..
Others can not be excluded from this security as you can't be excluded neither , & it can not be achieved at the cost of others.
They should respect people right be it in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or Yemen ..


The bottom line is I don't think Saudis by current leadership would learn a lesson and change their policy ... they've been caught & locked by westerns for decades changing steer & the status que is too much hard and I don't see them having guts to pay for it like Iran ...

 

[Oublious]

The article is stupid, they are doing it for Israel and not for KSA.

 

[Wow]

The article is stupid, they are doing it for Israel and not for KSA.

THIS

 

[Timur]

I support KSA

and US $$$

THIS

with german grammer its correct

 

[Clutch]

Maybe this realisation will finally lead to peace?

This whole scenario just proves the old adage ... Only through strength you get peace. Iran is survival depends on it being a strong adversary. Otherwise it would have been turned into an Iraq or Syria or Libya long time ago.

A great lesson for Pakistan and our naive LibTurds! You can only stand up to fanatical Hindutva rapist India if you yourself are strong. Appeasement has never worked!!!

 

[litman]

as a muslim we need to stand with truth and not with saudia or iran.

 

[crankthatskunk]

After seeing the Saudis and Emirates conditions and helplessness despite having state of the art fighter jets and other ammunition they have bought with billions from Uncle Sam.

I feel more proud of Pakistan and its Army.
If the Arabs feel so scared from Iranians, what if they were neighbours of Indians with a billion + population, nuclear weapons and 3rd largest army!!!
Their pampers would have always been wet.
Pakistan have two choices, both completely 180 degree oppose to each other.

1- stay completely aloof from any military commitment, considering what Saudis and Emirate doing recently viz a viz Kashmir and India.

2- Go in to protection racket and skim the Arabs for dosh.

 

[Falcon29]

Saudis must have realized now that those who rely on "others" (USA etc.) for their defense are bound to get "ugly reality checks" like the bombing of ARMCO sites in Saudi arabia and their subsequent helplessness. Saudis think that you can buy everything with "money", but they don't know that you cannot buy "courage" and "intelligence" with money, you are either born with these traits or remain devoid of these traits if you don't have them. Saudis can put 100s of billions of dollars in the pockets of weapons manufacturing companies of USA but those weapons in the hands of cowards, courageless, luxury loving POS types cannot save them from the attacks of their adversaries in the case of war.

Average Iranian is more cowardly than your average Arab. Arabs don't lack courage(war isn't won by courage alone). The Saudi's for example are very loyal to their leadership to keep the society there put together. Remember the Al-Saud family ruled on the basis of ending intertribal wars and unified them under one country. If Saudi's go to war with Iran, and the Al Saud family doesn't provide sufficient protection, then there is a risk of intertribal wars and revolt once again.

Saudi's can't go to war with Iran as it would be an war of attrition which is suitable for the Iranians as they have bad economy already and sanctions, military experience and localized military industry. Lots of resources as well. Saudi's have a good economy and can't afford to be in long wars(real wars where they take a lot more damage). In such a war, you have to invade Iran to neutralize some of their offensive threats. Problem is Iraq will not cooperate and Iraqi's are majority Shia that border Iran. You need to invade Iran through Iraq. Iran is a big country as the foreign powers at time colonizing them did not divide it up into many pieces like they did with Arab nations. It can absorb lots of damage more than Saudi Arabia, which is mostly desert.

So Saudis needed a different approach after the Arab spring but it failed to capitalize on Arab spring.

 

[Timur]

but it failed to capitalize on Arab spring

they are part of it..

as they are the main ones benefiting from it! which of the big known arab leaders are left? the ones who had an impact on other arabs? the ones who got listened when they talked..? they are gone and only one is left.. saudi arabia a fool would see through it..

the opponents are gone and one wicked country is left and waiting there to lead them.. maybe they can fool pakistan with money but others wont be fooled easily..

for turkey it was idiotic like most of our leaders had idiotic dreams and doings.. a gaddafi going was notof our interest.. a saddam gone also was a bad thing for us.. but a gone saddam a dead gaddaffi only benefits saudis and israelis

 

[Falcon29]

How a Saudi/Gulf-Iranian would play out, excluding what ignites such a war:

-Iranian, Iraqi, Lebanese, Yemeni strikes on Saudi Arabia and maybe UAE
-Saudi monarchy collapses but Saudi army fights on
-Invasion of Saudi via Iraq by Shia militias/volunteers from around world, maybe Iranian forces too
-Saudi civilian population not accustomed to war and has to organize/regroup, during this Saudis will be taking lots of casualties and losing ground
-Because no authority is left, calls for Jihad begin
-Arabs start with Israel before Iran, from the direction of Egypt, because Israel and the US will attack Arabs if they invade Iran
-Arabs defeat Israel, then head to Saudi Arabia to repel Shia invasion
-Arabs begin invading Iran, Iranians who say death to US and Israel, and accuse Arabs of being client stats of US, will make calls to US/European media/forums and beg them to come save them citing reasons such as if Iran fell an Sunni Caliphate will be established and they will invade Europe and subjugate minorities and how they are brothers in ideology and share common enemy(Sunni Muslims).

Ironically it is presence of Israel protecting Iran. If Arabs made an effort to invade Iran, they will be accussed of being ISIS and international coalition will invade much of Arab world. But Shia militias can invade Saudis no problem. Arabs have to deal with Israel first, which will deter any international coalition from intervening in the process of repelling Shia militias/Iran.

they are part of it..

as they are the main ones benefiting from it! which of the big known arab leaders are left? the ones who had an impact on other arabs? the ones who got listened when they talked..? they are gone and only one is left.. saudi arabia a fool would see through it..

the opponents are gone and one wicked country is left and waiting there to lead them.. maybe they can fool pakistan with money but others wont be fooled easily..

for turkey it was idiotic like most of our leaders had idiotic dreams and doings.. a gaddafi going was notof our interest.. a saddam gone also was a bad thing for us.. but a gone saddam a dead gaddaffi only benefits saudis and israelis

Israel/Nato/US are protecting Iran. If Arabs invade Iran whole of US/NATO/Israel and other coalition countries will invade from Arabs from behind to stop invasion of Iran. Because it will become Jihad fard if Saudi Arabia is invaded and the Saudi regime collapses. Lots of Muslims from Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco , Algeria will come to help the Saudis and they have to get through Israel first(via Egypt).

Because it also becomes jihad fard(organized, no ISIS like atrocities), it will still freak the world out that the Arabs will finally done with Israel and Iran and establish Sunni Caliphate so there is huge risk of international coalition invading Egypt(to help Israel) and maybe Syria/Iraq to help Iran and try preventing Sunni Caliphate from being established(even though Sunnis decide what they want and that's no one business).

So fighting Iran means fighting Israel, US and NATO and maybe other countries who help Iran. Unless Trump lets go of Israel and Iran and lets the people decide their fate.

The colonialists left Iran to be a very big nation and not many small ones like they did with Arabs because they saw it as essential to prevent Sunni big bloc or empire in the region.

 

[TNT]

Time to face reality: The United States doesn’t want to go to war with Iran to protect its Arab allies.

By Robert F. Worth

The missiles that struck last weekend in Saudi Arabia did not just destroy oil tanks. They also dealt the final blow to a doctrine that has been fading for years: the belief that the United States maintains a security umbrella able to protect the oil-rich Persian Gulf states from their enemies — and, especially, from Iran.

President Trump’s miscalculations helped get us here. But the current Gulf crisis is not just about this administration and the pitfalls of its “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. The United States has been disengaging from the Middle East since the catastrophe of the 2003 Iraq invasion. Now that shale has made America so much less dependent on the Middle East’s oil, it is hard to imagine any American president risking significant blood and treasure to defend Saudi Arabia.

For decades, the leaders of the Gulf seemed to believe their close ties with the United States (and the billions of dollars spent on American weapons) made them almost invulnerable. They regularly urged American diplomats and generals to get tougher with their Iranian neighbor or even to “cut off the head of the snake,” as Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah put it in 2008 in encouraging the United States to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites. Saudi confidence was bolstered by memories of the 1991 Gulf war, when an American-led military coalition reversed Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait.

But the faith in American power always blinked away some inconvenient facts. Iran’s population and military strength dwarf those of the Gulf countries, and the United States is nearly 10,000 miles away. In any conceivable war, the Gulf’s cities would be among the first targets. And unlike Iran, those cities are intensely vulnerable: A single bomb could shatter the status of Dubai as a safe hub for trade, transport and tourism.

Now the nightmare appears to be coming true. On Saturday, several volleys of Iranian missiles eluded the Saudis’ expensive American-supplied defenses, neatly puncturing oil storage tanks and facilities at two of the kingdom’s most important sites and causing global oil prices to spike. The damage was limited, but its message was not: Iran could strike the Gulf’s economic lifeline at any time.

The political follow-up has been equally chilling to Riyadh. Mr. Trump, reluctant to be drawn into a war that could damage his election prospects, responded with his usual blend of bluster and bargaining. Even as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has called the strikes “an act of war,” the administration has thrown the decision on a response into the Saudis’ court. They are reluctant to accept that responsibility.

It is still too early to say what will come of all this. If the provocations do not spin into open war — which would almost surely force the United States to get involved — Iran is likely to emerge stronger in any subsequent diplomacy, whether with the Trump administration or its neighbors across the Gulf.

The American commitment to protect the Gulf monarchies has its roots in 1945, when Franklin D. Roosevelt met with Saudi Arabia’s first king, Abdelaziz ibn Saud. It grew stronger during the Cold War, when presidents from Harry Truman through George Bush believed protecting Saudi Arabia’s oil fields was essential to fighting Communism.

The relationship has been tested — first by the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, in which 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudis, then by the belief among Gulf leaders that President Barack Obama abandoned them during the Arab uprisings of 2011.

But it seemed to get back on track with Mr. Trump’s election. The Saudis and Emiratis initially believed he would be a tougher guardian than Mr. Obama. They were delighted when he withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed heavy sanctions.

More recently, though, Gulf leaders have become uneasy about the mismatch between Mr. Trump’s rhetoric and his actions. In June, he threatened Iran with “obliteration” after it shot down an unmanned American drone, and then backed away from a planned retaliation at the last minute. His decision to fire John Bolton, his hawkish national security adviser, has strengthened a belief that Mr. Trump does not want war. But many feared he would stumble into one.

The Emiratis now appear to be wondering if they can rely on this president. After a series of attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf, they pointedly refused to blame Tehran, and then quietly sent a diplomatic delegation to Iran. They also pulled most of their troops out of the war in Yemen.

Will the Saudis respond in the same way? They have been waging a ruinous proxy war in Yemen since 2015, with the goal of teaching Iran a lesson. The lesson now seems to be flowing in the other direction. The Houthi militia in Yemen, which is allied with Iran, took responsibility for the missiles that struck Saudi Arabia last week. No one seems to take that claim seriously, but the Houthis have been firing drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia with rising frequency. The Saudis may have to recognize that only diplomacy will bring that war to an end.

Mr. Trump could yet fulfill the Gulf countries’ hopes that he can batter and humble Iran. But at this point, it seems more likely that his fecklessness will provide them with a very different, and perhaps more enduring legacy: the recognition that they must learn to manage Iran without American help.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/19/opinion/saudi-arabia-attack.html

They look dumb bit saudis are not that dumb. They realised that they need to diversify in obama era when obama got close to iran and dis the JCPOA. Since then saudis have got closer to Pakistan, imported alot of weapons. Huge numbers of saudi military are trained by Pakistan. Pakistan also helps them with missile technology. Saudi also got closer to china and russia. Through Pakistan they are becoming oart of CPEC. They also have one of our best generals, who will train them well.
This benefits Pakistan alot too. A frnd of mine is deputed to saudi and he tells me it is giving Pakistan huge huge knowhow of modern weapons and systems. Apart from financial help it also gives us strategic depth. As US becomes reluctant to defend saudi, it will get more n more closer to Pakistan and china.

 

[Timur]

How a Saudi/Gulf-Iranian would play out, excluding what ignites such a war:

-Iranian, Iraqi, Lebanese, Yemeni strikes on Saudi Arabia and maybe UAE
-Saudi monarchy collapses but Saudi army fights on
-Invasion of Saudi via Iraq by Shia militias/volunteers from around world, maybe Iranian forces too
-Saudi civilian population not accustomed to war and has to organize/regroup, during this Saudis will be taking lots of casualties and losing ground
-Because no authority is left, calls for Jihad begin
-Arabs start with Israel before Iran, from the direction of Egypt, because Israel and the US will attack Arabs if they invade Iran
-Arabs defeat Israel, then head to Saudi Arabia to repel Shia invasion
-Arabs begin invading Iran, Iranians who say death to US and Israel, and accuse Arabs of being client stats of US, will make calls to US/European media/forums and beg them to come save them citing reasons such as if Iran fell an Sunni Caliphate will be established and they will invade Europe and subjugate minorities and how they are brothers in ideology and share common enemy(Sunni Muslims).

Ironically it is presence of Israel protecting Iran. If Arabs made an effort to invade Iran, they will be accessed of being ISIS and international coalition will invade much of Arab world. But Shia militias can invade Saudis no problem. Arabs have to deal with Israel first, which will deter any international coalition from intervening in the process of repelling Shia militias/Iran.

an iranian saudi war would end up israel and us siding up with saudis there would be help.. but it would burn saudi arabia and it would burn iran no one wins and saying the other side suffered more what does it have of a benefit when you lost your mother, father or a brother? nothing..

iraqi shia groubs would be massacred they could harm saudi population but in the end they have no capacity to occupy saudi land.. that also counts for any occupation against iran it has no chance.. they can destroy houses, hospitals, roads, infrastructure military and so on both can do harm but in the end I think iran would get bombed and bombed and bombed even if they have some sucecess by harming their enemy

there is no arab attacking israel.. this dreams of some folks is gone.. arab leaders like egypt, saudi uae side up with israel we see clearly preperations for israels security if you want to attack iran than you have to do some tricks some preparations and this are starve them starve them starve them! and then take down their minions like syria, lebanon, yemen at least if everything is saturated begin the show and take them down with a coalition..

after iran shure there has to be a next target.. and that is turkey.. this is the main target they key the bridge to ME sometimes I think the iran show could just be over and they will concentrade on turkey..

Israel/Nato/US are protecting Iran. If Arabs invade Iran whole of US/NATO/Israel and other coalition countries will invade from Arabs from behind to stop invasion of Iran

I do not know what you are smoking.. today you see US ISRAEL AND SAUDISTAN waiting for opportunities but got surprized with two attacks.. I cant laugh about that invasion nonsense its compleatly idiotic to say this.. there wont be an us nato help for iran it would be for saudistan

Lots of Muslims from Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco , Algeria will come to help the Saudis and they have to get through Israel first(via Egypt)

where are you living your egypt has such good relations with israel they work together against your smuggling routes.. and so on they even threat us with israel your government and other wicked gulfies on mediterran sea..

your nationalism blinds you..

Because it also becomes jihad fard(organized, no ISIS like atrocities), it will still freak the world out that the Arabs will finally done with Israel and Iran and establish Sunni Caliphate so there is huge risk of international coalition invading Egypt(to help Israel) and maybe Syria/Iraq to help Iran and try preventing Sunni Caliphate from being established(even though Sunnis decide what they want and that's no one business).

you mean becaue it is saudi arabia? is it sauds to be worshipped? or why is it not fard for syria or iraq? afghanistan, kashmir, east turkestan,myanmar.. ? the muslims of alqaida are not enough muslims to call out for jihad? at least they dont care from where you come from..

this selective view is a cancer.. I tell you what will excatly happen if anyone will establish a caliphate:
the many muslims will not accept it! europe US and muslims will fight against it like they fight those who established a caliphate since the last caliphate they will label them as terrorists, as barbars, laugh make fun and talk about ppl they do not know badly because they belive these ppl are medival and all kind of bad..

 

[Falcon29]

@Timur

You're an idiot man, it will play out exactly how I explained it will.

this selective view is a cancer.. I tell you what will excatly happen if anyone will establish a caliphate:
the many muslims will not accept it! europe US and muslims will fight against it like they fight those who established a caliphate since the last caliphate they will label them as terrorists, as barbars, laugh make fun and talk about ppl they do not know badly because they belive these ppl are medival and all kind of bad..

You're blinded by your hatred for Arabs and therefore it is affecting your judgement/ability to foresee events.

US and Europe Muslims are not going to be involved, not sure why you even mention them.

 

[Dino]

Hard to believe that the arabs of the arabian peninsula a thousand years ago marched into persia and levelled the empire to the ground.

The saudis have state of the art F15SAs but you can't buy courage or tenacity. The saudi leadership knows how to jail salman al oudah and countless others for no reason. In that it resembles khamenei's empire. Iran treats its people like crap too. But at least the IRGC are cunning vicious tools. The saudis are hapless folks relying on a coward sheep like trump who would not lift a finger if his life dependent on it.

As for the saudis, let's remember this is the same country that considered invading qatar and if it were not for al udeid airbase, they would have attacked doha. Bullies and cowards. what a shame.