The Economist: Made in China - New, Improved and Stronger than ever

[AndrewJin]

One of the many caveats in here is that there are some members who do not offer intellectual discussion, its best to ignore trolls here and appreciate the members who have great post potential. Don't quit bro, you're one of the great qualitative posters here.

Keep your chin up.

You are right, I gradually learn this lesson, a bitter process though.
Thanks for you appreciation. I am already blind to many threads here which are consistently posted every day mainly to ignite hatred and tension.

 

[zeronet]

None of your answers solves the problem I mentioned. Just take a look at Germany. We are highly automated, highly efficient, highly developed and also highly service oriented and yet, we have a large and growing number of unemployment, although our demography is shrinking. The service jobs that have been created in the last decades were mostly low wage jobs where the worker can't make ends meet with and the state still has to fill up the rest so that he/she can put enough food on the table.

reducing or eliminating the number of immigrants, that is what Germany should do to save jobs to locals. Germany is not America, traditionally she is not a immigrant country. Only absorbing immigrants with high talent, who I assume there are not many of. In China's case, the whole country is not at Germany's level in terms of service section, service only accounts for around 45% in China's GDP, comparing to Germany's 70%~80%+. So huge growth potential lies here. China's manufacturing section can only become stronger and stronger with jump in the productivity per worker. Last year, the increase in China's unit productivity is 7% comparing to 7.4% GDP growth, you see where the major driving force to economy is coming from. Ironically, with so many reports on labor-cost sensitive industry fleeing out of China, China's labor-intensive product global share just keeps expanding, the first two month of 2015 export of such products jumped more than 20%......

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

This whole debate is pretty much insanely idiotic to be frank.

Few points every one is missing here:

1. Automation is almost always NEVER able to fully compensate for Labor. Cheap skilled labor is indeed one of the most important things for many industries today. Not only this, the level of automation that can be done is very different in different industries. There is virtually no automation that can be done for many industries like assembling different components, making shoes etc.

2. Had Automation really mattered that much, manufacturing would never have moved to China in the first place. Though I agree, Automation sophistication is increasing, nothing is comparable to a human yet. Just compare a human with a machine.

3. These wild speculations of a time when labor is not needed are as much far off as say, Humans crossing the Milky way Galaxy. We are not able to build anything CLOSE to the complexity of the human brain. For all its worth, Artificial Intelligence is very very far off.

4. Even if the machines were ubiquitous, they will generally be better for humans. The people who are debating what humans will do are as regressive as a person in the 1st century wondering why Bullock carts are being used for Agriculture, as that would make Humans jobless. After every major Industrial feat, the human condition has undoubtedly improved and their requirement has kept pace. Today, there is no shortage in demand for highly skilled people, none at all. And you know what, this is the same fear that antagonists of the Industrial Revolution were pitching to oppose it.

5. With increasing technology, the humans will have to change fields. For at least a century, Human skill in technology, science are indispensable.

6. People here forget, that in the end, we humans are as much machines, as "machines" are. That is, we use essentially the same things. We just work on different principles. We use electricity, neural connections etc. If we indeed reach a stage when we can make things more complicated than ourselves, at that time, we can re-engineer ourselves.

Yes, baby, this is a mathematical certainty that once we reach a stage where we can design things better than ourselves, which is debatable, we will be capable of re-engineering ourselves. We will understand what Conciousness is. We ourselves can augment our bodies. Just imagine a day when we have unlimited photographic memory, thanks to understanding of the brain, brought about by augmentation of machines inside the brain.

So, don't you worry baby, Humans are here to stay, albeit in every changing landscapes and forms.
@Nihonjin1051 @AndrewJin @FairAndUnbiased

 

[Aepsilons]

You are right, I gradually learn this lesson, a bitter process though.
Thanks for you appreciation. I am already blind to many threads here which are consistently posted every day mainly to ignite hatred and tension.

Anytime, my friend. Like picking rice, we have to sift through the good parcels from the bad.

Have you seen @Yizhi lately? I feel my lil bro has been gone for some time now...

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Climate change, resource shortage, etc. might mean stagnation or regression, or even if improvement, in areas that you might not like.

 

[AndrewJin]

Anytime, my friend. Like picking rice, we have to sift through the good parcels from the bad.

Have you seen @Yizhi lately? I feel my lil bro has been gone for some time now...

@Yizhi
It's 3 am in the morning and I am working on my paper.
He must be having some good sleep time somewhere in Guangzhou.

 

[Aepsilons]

Progress is not going to stop regardless.

If we don't adopt and and refine this tech, our economic rivals surely will.

And industrial robotics is only going to get more and more cost efficient as time goes on.

Progress is not going to go backwards just because some people don't like it. It is going to keep going forwards and we are gong to adapt with it.

Precisely. Well said.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

If not, people will be confronted with even more severe job shortage. The subsequent question is, If technology improves and at the same time required labour reduces, is there a redistribution system to maintain a relative social equality? Or, just like the lesson we gain from Chinese history, 天下大势，合久必分，分久必合.

That's where I wanted to gauge the discussion to.

Can you translate the Chinese part?

 

[AndrewJin]

That's where I wanted to gauge the discussion to.

Can you translate the Chinese part?

The very first sentence of
Romance of the Three Kingdoms - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
It means, the tendency of the land under heaven is, it must separate after a long united status, it must get united after a long separated status. (Gosh I love the simplicity of classical Chinese)

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Can you translate the Chinese part?

The Chinese quote he posted is the opening line from the Romance of the Three Kingdoms.

It means: "There is a great trend in the world, that which has been long united will surely divide, and that which has been long divided will surely unite".

It describes the "cyclical view" of the world that is common in Chinese thought.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

Its all about people willing to work or not or take up jobs they dont like. I know Germany has a huge shortage of nurse and skilled healthcare professional that they need to resort to importing immigrants to solve the shortge. Then we have claims of huge unemployment in Germany.

I have many friends who are doctors working in hospitals. We have a shortage because these professions have become low wage jobs despite the high requirement of knowledge and education.

You see where this all will lead to. Our works´force is highly educated and yet, you find engineers who have to drive taxi. At the same time our oligarchy controlled media is propagating that we don't have enough skilled personnel and have to import low wage professionals from other countries thus pressuring the wages down for all other national competitors. Don't you see the perfidy?

The question is, how long can that last until all but the few will become low income slaves who can't consume the products anymore? We are digging our own graves.

 

[Aepsilons]

If not, people will be confronted with even more severe job shortage. The subsequent question is, If technology improves and at the same time required labour reduces, is there a redistribution system to maintain a relative social equality? Or, just like the lesson we gain from Chinese history, 天下大势，合久必分，分久必合.

As China moves from manufacturing dominated economy, in the course of development, the rise in service oriented economy will usher a new economic paradigm, one that will focus on internal market development. There are opportunities in this as this means more jobs will open up in the health/medical/nursing/pharmaceutical/ physical therapy fields, education, tourism sector, financial systems, human resources fields. It is all about tapping into that massive 1.4 billion population base, my friend.

The question is, how long can that last until all but the few will become low income slaves who can't consume the products anymore? We are digging our own graves.

I deign to ask what would your solution be to this so called quagmire. Please provide hypothetical solutions.

 

[AndrewJin]

I have many friends who are doctors working in hospitals. We have a shortage because these professions have become low wage jobs despite the high requirement of knowledge and education.

You see where this all will lead to. Our works´force is highly educated and yet, you find engineers who have to drive taxi. At the same time our oligarchy controlled media is propagating that we don't have enough skilled personnel and have to import low wage professionals from other countries thus pressuring the wages down for all other national competitors. Don't you see the perfidy?

The question is, how long can that last until all but the few will become low income slaves who can't consume the products anymore? We are digging our own graves.

This is a really intimidating situation, in our society Germany is a real model you know. That's the tendency Capital in the Twenty-First Century has conveyed but I don't know if Das Kapital succeeded to project it. Nobody can prevent it unless a reshuffle of the society, like I quoted, 天下大势，合久必分，分久必合, this sentence is applicable to any regime.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

I deign to ask what would your solution be to this so called quagmire. Please provide hypothetical solutions.

1. Change our education prepare our children for a highly automated future..
2. Taxing the robots, eliminate all other taxes but keep consumption tax (VAT)
3. Universal basic income to all citizens

 

[AndrewJin]

As China moves from manufacturing dominated economy, in the course of development, the rise in service oriented economy will usher a new economic paradigm, one that will focus on internal market development. There are opportunities in this as this means more jobs will open up in the health/medical/nursing/pharmaceutical/ physical therapy fields, education, tourism sector, financial systems, human resources fields. It is all about tapping into that massive 1.4 billion population base, my friend.



I deign to ask what would your solution be to this so called quagmire. Please provide hypothetical solutions.

Got any ideas on my paper?
Yep, demographic bonus is continuously diminishing. But I see the beginning of real demographic bonus has just unveiled.