The Economist: Made in China - New, Improved and Stronger than ever

[Götterdämmerung]

Yep, factories in costal China are scrambling for labour force in competition with industry in my homeland, a province in central China. Just have a look at how many HSR services per day from my city to Canton. There is still enough margin in service sector, which is the main economical engine in the ongoing reforms.
Germany is another case, but still sound enough compared to other western powers, btw, some sort of restrictions on blind introduction of immigrants might be thought of.

What will happen in 20 years? That's not far into the future. Immigration is not the solution for a highly automated economy.

You are too pessimistic I think. Germany's high-end manufacturing will remain competitive. A relatively neutral position between west and east will assure prosperity unless it follows too closely after US&NATO.

Sure, our high-tech products will probably remain competitive. But what are we going to do with the growing number of either unemployment or low wage workers that despite working full time still have to rely on welfare? this has nothing to do with geopolitics.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

China is not Germany, but automation will affect China as much as it is already affecting us now. We have just arrived there earlier. China will face the same dilemma once it reaches a certain development level.

Sure, it is a problem we will have to face one day.

Along with thousands of other problems we will have to face on our path to becoming a developed country.

But for now, there is still a lot of room for us, and hopefully our policymakers will continue to do the good job they have been doing so far, while keeping long-term risks in mind.

I don't believe the industrial robotics bandwagon will stop, they are only going to become more and more efficient as time goes on.

 

[AndrewJin]

Well said, bro. Germany , indeed, is a model state for post industrialized states, however one has to be understanding of the differences between China and Germany. For one, China is still a developing country, and although she is not yet at the level of per capita comparisons with say Germany, her shear GDP is arguably the 2nd largest in the world, and growing at 7% per annum. While China's economy is mainly export oriented, there are parameters that shows the gradual evolution from industrial manufacturing to service orientated economy, which is a natural phenomenon for developing / developed states.

Case in point Germany post industrial revolution , same for USA, same for Japan.

Bro, we haven't discussed rationally for a long time. I nearly wanna quit PDF.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

Sure, it is a problem we will have to face one day.

Along with thousands of other problems we will have to face on our path to becoming a developed country.

But now, there is still a lot of room for us, and hopefully our policymakers will continue to do the good job they have been doing so far, while keeping long-term risks in mind.

The thing is, we in Germany have been facing this problem in the last two decades and it's only getting worse. A large chunk of unemployment is not even declared as such. The state piles up debts to pay all the welfares and pensions, although the amount of welfare has been reduced drastically and pensions have been stagnating.

I think you still don't understand the socio-economic implications that this development will entail.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I think you still don't understand the socio-economic implications that this development will entail.

Progress is not going to stop regardless.

If we don't adopt and and refine this tech, our economic rivals surely will.

And industrial robotics is only going to get more and more cost efficient as time goes on.

Progress is not going to go backwards just because some people don't like it. It is going to keep going forwards and we are gong to adapt with it.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

Progress is not going to stop regardless.

If we don't adopt and and refine this tech, our economic rivals surely will.

And industrial robotics is only going to get more and more cost efficient as time goes on.

Progress is not going to go backwards just because some people don't like it. It is going to keep going forwards and we are gong to adapt with it.

I am pro progress, but I also see all the side effects that's been reality here for many years and getting worse. What are we going to do with millions of disenfranchised people? So, it's not only about progress but about the stability of the whole society.

 

[The Great One]

I am pro progress, but I also see all the side effects that's been reality here for many years and getting worse. What are we going to do with millions of disenfranchised people? So, it's not only about progress but about the stability of the whole society.

die Revolution

 

[Götterdämmerung]

die Revolution

That would be the best outcome, at worst we will have a new form of feudal society with a large group of lumpenproletariat.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I am pro progress, but I also see all the side effects that's been reality here for many years and getting worse. What are we going to do with millions of disenfranchised people? So, it's not only about progress but about the stability of the whole society.

Well what do you suggest we do then?

If we stop pouring our time/research/cash into industrial robotics, we'll just end up falling behind our rivals in terms of competitiveness and efficiency, since industrial robotics is only going to become more efficient as time goes on.

That means less money and resources to go around, which will hurt our development process. Less orders and lower productivity means that factories will shut down, causing even more social problems.

It's no longer a choice, we need to keep up our competitiveness and efficiency.

True, some people are going to be unemployed, that is just a fact of life. But if we are constantly increasing our productivity/efficiency/output, the country as a whole will benefit, providing more opportunities for more job creation.

 

[Beast]

I am pro progress, but I also see all the side effects that's been reality here for many years and getting worse. What are we going to do with millions of disenfranchised people? So, it's not only about progress but about the stability of the whole society.

Its all about people willing to work or not or take up jobs they dont like. I know Germany has a huge shortage of nurse and skilled healthcare professional that they need to resort to importing immigrants to solve the shortge. Then we have claims of huge unemployment in Germany.

 

[AndrewJin]

Well what do you suggest we do then?

If we stop pouring our time/research/cash into industrial robotics, we'll just end up falling behind our rivals in terms of competitiveness and efficiency, since industrial robotics is only going to become more efficient as time goes on.

That means less money and resources to go around, which will hurt our development process. Less orders and lower productivity means that factories will shut down, causing even more social problems.

It's no longer a choice, we need to keep up our competitiveness and efficiency.

True, some people are going to be unemployed, that is just a fact of life. But if we are constantly increasing our productivity/efficiency/output, the country as a whole will benefit, providing more opportunities for more job creation.

That would be the best outcome, at worst we will have a new form of feudal society with a large group of lumpenproletariat.

If not, people will be confronted with even more severe job shortage. The subsequent question is, If technology improves and at the same time required labour reduces, is there a redistribution system to maintain a relative social equality? Or, just like the lesson we gain from Chinese history, 天下大势，合久必分，分久必合.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

What will happen in 20 years? That's not far into the future. Immigration is not the solution for a highly automated economy.




Sure, our high-tech products will probably remain competitive. But what are we going to do with the growing number of either unemployment or low wage workers that despite working full time still have to rely on welfare? this has nothing to do with geopolitics.

There will be the third and final wave of industrial revolution: self assembling nanotechnologies.

It probably will never happen but if it does, watch out. It is the ultimate automation, automation by the engineered nature of the materials themselves and the laws of thermodynamics. You can't argue with statistical physics, it is the only absolute law of nature. Quantum mechanics, relativity, etc. might all be wrong but statistical physics cannot be wrong.

Then the world will be separated into those who control the machines, those who control the humans who control the machines, and everyone else.

 

[Aepsilons]

Bro, we haven't discussed rationally for a long time. I nearly wanna quit PDF.

One of the many caveats in here is that there are some members who do not offer intellectual discussion, its best to ignore trolls here and appreciate the members who have great post potential. Don't quit bro, you're one of the great qualitative posters here.

Keep your chin up.

 

[AndrewJin]

There will be the third and final wave of industrial revolution: self assembling nanotechnologies.

It probably will never happen but if it does, watch out. It is the ultimate automation, automation by the engineered nature of the materials themselves and the laws of thermodynamics. You can't argue with statistical physics, it is the only absolute law of nature. Quantum mechanics, relativity, etc. might all be wrong but statistical physics cannot be wrong.

Then the world will be separated into those who control the machines, those who control the humans who control the machines, and everyone else.

Are you reading some novels?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Are you reading some novels?

I have actually worked with these materials so I know that it is a very distant dream, but in the case that it does become realized, it will change the world.