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The Changing Threat Axis – Developments in Indian Oceans

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The Changing Threat Axis – Developments in Indian Ocean



“You can do a lot with diplomacy, but of course you can do a lot more with diplomacy backed up with firmness and force ………….. . Prime Minister, ladies and gentlemen, “Sound Defense is sound Foreign Policy.” (Kofi Annan UN Secretary General)

The old adage that wars are fought to end wars is becoming a misnomer. Factually after World War-I, WW-II and a brief spell of 'Cold War' period, a new form of war has emerged, this time against a hidden, but formally recognized enemy i.e. 'War against Terrorism'. It has not only given credence and horizontally escalated to different parts and regions of the world (especially after 9/11), but has transcended the land boundaries into the maritime domain i.e. sea. In the aftermath of attack on Mumbai, the economical and commercial hub of India, the South Asian continent has once again been rocked with mounting tensions, accompanied by a flurry of diplomatic activity.

While any incident on land sparked off by an act of terrorism invites the attention of the world media, incidents of violence at sea either remain isolated or hastily reported due to inaccessibility of the area of incident and poor follow up. The old proverb 'out of sight out of mind' is practically applicable to the maritime developments at sea.

In the backdrop of peace talks, and CBMs (confidence building measures), the topic of war may seem inappropriate and insignificant. But it is during periods of peace that military institutions think and plan for war. In the present fast changing environment, the prevalence of a quagmire of uncertainties further complicates the conflict. The fog of 'escalation' has become more dangerous than the fog of war. Simply put war is intrinsic to man as peace is vital to the existence of mankind.

Without commenting on the historical perspective and importance of Indian Ocean, it suffices to say that the Indian Ocean in the past was an important waterway and still continues to be an area of intense maritime activity. In the immediate neighbourhood, under the aegis of United States Fifth Fleet accompanied by warships of seven countries (i.e. Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, U.K, United States and Pakistan) are actively engaged and involved in what are commonly termed as 'Maritime Security Operations'. These operations are basically designed to monitor, inspect, board and eventually stop suspect shipping to pursue the objectives set forth by the war on terrorism at sea. Generally termed as VBSS (Visit, Board, Search and Seizure) operations, these operations are being jointly conducted by Maritime Coalition Forces under Command Task Force (CTF 150).

The Pakistan Navy despite its resource constraints has contributed significantly to the efforts against war on terror at sea. Recognizing this humble contribution, the coalition force has twice entrusted the command of its force i.e. CTF 150 to Pakistan.

At the extreme southern end of the Indian Ocean, i.e. Mallaca Straits and specially off Somalia, a coalition force mainly from NATO countries including India is conducting, what are known as 'Anti Piracy Operations'. Sea piracy, especially off Somalia's territorial waters has assumed significant proportions. Some 120 attacks on merchant ships have since been reported during 2008 off the coast of Somalia and nearby waters including capturing of a large Saudi tanker by the pirates.

The Indian Navy is an emerging medium naval power and is one of the important stake holders in the Indian Ocean. Amongst the littorals surrounding the Indian Ocean, it is steadily and gradually gaining influence in some of the areas vital for its national aims and policies. In the initial stages of its existence, the role assigned by its policy makers was that of a conventional nature, mainly restricted to defense of a large coastal area i.e. 8500 km of coastline. With the passage of time, realizing the benefits mainly accruing from the use of sea trade routes and its subsequent control, the objectives and aims have witnessed substantial and manifold increase both in quality and quantity.

It is not only that the Indian Navy has expanded both in size and numbers, but it is the perception and vision of its policy makers, which is likely to place heavy demands on the future deployment pattern and its logistic support. This was amply highlighted during the visit of Indian External Affairs Minister Parnab Mukherjee during his visit to Tehran during which he proclaimed that India has a natural and abiding stake in the safety and security of the sea lanes of communication from the Mallaca Straits to the Persian Gulf. Reportedly, Delhi has also approached Oman for assistance in berthing facilities for its warships. The political ramifications viz-a-viz existing relationship between India and Iran notwithstanding, the policy statement is a clear indication of the ambitious Indian naval deployment pattern in the Indian Ocean in the future.

It is interesting to note that with three independent naval commands and a sizeable navy, the Indian Navy failed to surveil, detect and subsequently marginalize the terrorist attack on one of its important commercial hub. It also leaves to imagination, that prior to the attack presumably from seaward, the Indian Navy was actively engaged in an exercise of defense off Gujrat. Presently, the coast has three tiered defenses i.e. 5 kms manned by the police, upto 20 kms from the coast by the Indian Coast Guard, and beyond by the Indian Navy. It not only indicates serious loopholes in Indian maritime security system but also points to some fundamental deficiencies and a serious lack of resources in the Indian Navy. Navies all over the world are generally categorized according to the functions performed by them and the area of deployment.

The Pakistan Navy (PN) in its present configuration can best be described as a sea control navy with a limited sea denial capability. This however, does not in any way imply that it is incapable of defending the maritime frontiers of Pakistan or protecting the maritime interest of the nation. At operational level the PN is engaged in a defensive offensive strategy. Translated into simple words, it implies that while carrying out the defense of its assets and resources, it fully retains the capability and potential of conducting active offense. According to an independent foreign naval observer, “with a view to understand the strength of the Pakistan Navy, it is necessary to delve beneath its surface”, obviously referring to the presence of a strong and potent submarine force. The PN as an effective instrument of its foreign policy and an emerging regional navy has been actively engaged in participating with other foreign navies of the world and with the important Middle East Navies in particular.

During March 2007, it was instrumental in hosting the biggest multinational naval exercise off Karachi. A total of 27 countries including Iran for the first time as an observer attended and participated in Exercise AMAN 07. While the basic aim of the exercise was to rehearse combined moves and tactics, and harmonize coalition operation to combat terrorism, it also signaled the message of maintenance of peace and stability in a turbulent region. The participant countries included warships, aircrafts and Special Forces from Bangladesh, China, France, Italy, Malaysia, Pakistan, Turkey, UK and the United States.

The fast changing geopolitical and geostrategic environment has placed dual and diverse responsibility on the PN. As a major player in the region, while pursuing the policy of maintaining stability in the North Indian Ocean, it has per force to fulfill its major obligation towards the maritime defense of the nation.

The perceived Indian naval expansion in Indian Ocean Region should also be viewed at the geopolitical level with strong repercussions on geo-economics in the back drop of a worldwide recession. It must be remembered that the west 'jugular vein' passes through some important water ways, while 97% of the trade in Pakistan is carried through the sea.

The sea as a medium provides both opportunities and challenges for conduct of wars. Thereby, implying greater alertness by naval forces through formulation of all foreseeable contingencies, standard operating procedures (SOP'S) and Rules of Engagement (ROE's) which will afford greater freedom of action to commanders operating independently at sea.

References and Bibliography

· Fleet Review 'Pakistan's small navy packs a punch' Jane's Navy International March 2000 by Brian Cloughley.

· 'India seeks velvet divorce from Iran' by MK Bhadrakumar.

· British Maritime Doctrine BR 1806.

· Indian Army's new Cold Start War doctrine strategically reviewed Part-II (Additional imperatives) by Dr. Subhash Kapila.

· BBC News.
 
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