The Arjun, a Black Swan and the Future Ready Combat Vehicle

[Sarjen29]

The Arjun, a Black Swan and the Future Ready Combat Vehicle
Published August 15, 2015 | By admin
SOURCE : CLAWS

Army, DRDO fight it out again over Arjun and Futuristic Tanks”. This headline in a news item in The Times of India, of 05 Aug 2015 sought to grab attention by alluding to a ‘fight’. It would be more appropriate to term the issue a debate. Both organisations, the Army and the DRDO, serve the same country and where national interests matter there is a debate over the best course of action but never a ‘fight’.

Weight and maintainability are two issues of the Arjun fleet. The former precludes it from being fielded in the riverine terrain of Punjab. To view the issue in perspective the tables below list out certain basic parameters of the Arjun and two contemporary tanks. These are regarding timelines and increase in weight in successive variants of the same tank.

Table -1 Timelines

Arjun Merkava Challenger
Conceived 1972 1970 1958 (As Chieftain)
First Prototype 1984 1974 1959 (As Chieftain)
1974-1977 (As Shir 1/ Khalid)
1980 (As Shir 2)
First Inducted 2004 1979 1983 (Challenger)
Table -1 Combat Weight[4]

Mk 1 Mk 2 Mk 3 Mk 4
Arjun 58.5 68[5]
Merkava 60 61 65 65
Challenger 55 (Chieftain Mk 5) 58 (Shir 1) 62 (Mk 1) 62.5(Mk 2)
The tables above highlight the following points:

• From project conception to first prototype the Arjun took 12 years, the Merkava four years and the Chieftain one year (the short time line was a result of it having been evolvedfrom the Centurion).
• Shir 1 and Shir 2 were improvements on the Chieftain ordered by Iran. The order was cancelled in 1979 after the Iranian revolution. The Shir 2 was improved for British Army requirements in three years’ time and became the Challenger 1.
• From prototype to induction for the Arjun took 20 years, Merkava five years and Challenger three years.
• The combat weight of the Arjun increased by 9.5 tons from Mk 1 to Mk 2, the Merkava by five tons from Mk 1 to 4. In case the Chieftain Mk 5 is called the first Mark of the Challenger, then from Mk 1 to Mk 4 the weight increased by 7.5 tons.
• There has been no increase in the weight of Merkava Mk3 to Mk4 though a number of features have been added including an active protection system and upgradation of the power pack from 1200 hp to 1500 hp.[6]

Tanks are designed (or purchased) based upon the threat from enemy weapons, the physical environment that they are to operate in, and the military doctrine of a country. Post the 1967 and 1973 wars the IDFhad prioritised the requirements in their tank to be armour protection, firepower and mobility.[8] The Merkava was conceived based upon the technological and military wisdom and experience of Maj Gen Israel Tal, one of IDF’s foremost tank commanders.[9]He designed a tank most suited for Israel’s envisagedbattlefield environment and the IDF doctrine of fighting. The Camp David Accord in 1978 and the peace treaty signed the next year with Egypt signalled the end of a major tank threat on the Southern Front of Israel. The 1973 war had seen many more Israeli tank casualties from infantry ATGMs than from tanks. This experience was reinforced in Operation Peace for Galileein Lebanon (1981-1983) where in spite of major Syrian tank forces being committed, Israeli armour casualties were more from ATGMs especially in the rugged hilly area in Eastern Lebanon as well as the built up areas along the coast leading toBeirut. Some early Merkavas were used here[10] and with their capability to carry upto six infantrymen[11]and with an integrated 60mm mortar proved their worth against defiladed[12] anti-tank teams.

For all its success, almost no interest was shown for the Merkavaby foreign armies. The reason is that it is tailor made for the Israeli environment and not for the environments of other countries. This reinforces the argument that the tank we must have must be most suitable for our environment.Those who quote the complete outclassing of the Iraqi T-72 tanks in the Gulf Wars by the 63 ton Abrams and use this to justify heavy tanks, miss out the complete air superiority of the Coalition and the technically obsolescent Iraqi tanks.

The last of the first production batch of 124 Arjun Mk 1 on order will probably be delivered this year. It has been 45 years from conception to final delivery of the Arjun Mk 1. During this same period a Black Swan event[13] happened. A Black Swan event has the following three attributes, Firstly, it lies outside the realm of regular expectations; secondly, it carries an extreme impact; and lastly, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.[14]

The Rajasthan canal was conceived in 1947 but work on it could start only in 1957 after the Indus waters treaty was signed. In 1983 an year before the first prototype of the Arjun was made, Stage I of the canal reached North of Bikaner.[15]The canal led to a Black Swan event in the 32 years that the Arjun Mark I took to enter service. The deserts where tanks could have unrestrained mobility started becoming restricted. A latticework of canals snaked all over especially parallel to the border and are planned to go upto Gadra Road in Barmer district.[16]An area which was classic tank country has gradually changed into a populated area with restricted employability especially for heavy tanks. A majority of the numerous canals that exist there don’t have bridges/culverts to take over 60-ton behemoths.

A tank is cost effective with economies of scale. Presently the 50 ton T-72 tanks are deployed from Ladakh[17] to the Rann of Kutch.Conversely the Arjun, because of its weight constraint,is employed only in restricted areas of Rajasthan. The restriction is compounded because the Arjun does not have appropriate tank transporters, Armoured Recovery Vehicles or Bridge laying tanks. This is a Catch-22 situation of sorts because it is not cost-effective to build such support vehicles without an adequate tank fleet to support.

During the same period weapons and technology have also changed. This is not a Black Swan event, but it has had its effects. The Arjun and the Challenger remain the only two MBTs in the world which have rifled main guns. These are suitable for HESH[18] ammunition which has much reduced effectiveness against modern composite tank armour. Conversely, rifled guns are not the best option for firing either APFSDS[19] ammunition or guided missiles through the main gun, which are contemporary munitions giving enhanced range and kill probability.

The Future Ready Combat Vehicle (FRCV)as the name suggests is conceived as a future solution. The project is proposed to be developed on a modular concept as part of a family of combat vehicles. The tracked Main Battle Tank will be the primary/base variant on which the support and combat vehicles will be based.[20]Headlines in various military columns and online sites cry hoarse that this is killing the Arjun Mark 2 or the DRDO’s proposed FMBT[21] program. However, a design competition to pick up the best design suitable for our doctrine, terrain and environment and which can generate economies of scale is a step worth taking.

It takes little imagination to conclude why the Army feels that the Arjun Mark II which is reaching a 68 ton weight does not meet its requirement for the future. Its basic features were conceived for a different era. A lighter tank made heavier by adding on armour and additional features can still be made to retain its character by getting a more powerful engine. A heavy tank may not be tolerant to be made lighter without the basic design going awry. This piece opines that the FRCV is a good initiative. What is important is that the project should not go the Arjun way with far too long lead times before moving from one stage to the other. If that happens it is not too difficult to predict that we may again see another Black Swan event. When faced with a Black Swan probability it is best to work out radically new approaches than to stick to status quo methods.

 

[Argon Prime]

Only one word............BULL CRAAP!!

 

[sathya]

Only one word............BULL CRAAP!!

That's two words

 

[Argon Prime]

That's two words

It is??Well,it could be,I'm kinda high right now,ain't really in a position to keep count of my words.

 

[Echo_419]

The Arjun, a Black Swan and the Future Ready Combat Vehicle
Published August 15, 2015 | By admin
SOURCE : CLAWS

Army, DRDO fight it out again over Arjun and Futuristic Tanks”. This headline in a news item in The Times of India, of 05 Aug 2015 sought to grab attention by alluding to a ‘fight’. It would be more appropriate to term the issue a debate. Both organisations, the Army and the DRDO, serve the same country and where national interests matter there is a debate over the best course of action but never a ‘fight’.

Weight and maintainability are two issues of the Arjun fleet. The former precludes it from being fielded in the riverine terrain of Punjab. To view the issue in perspective the tables below list out certain basic parameters of the Arjun and two contemporary tanks. These are regarding timelines and increase in weight in successive variants of the same tank.

Table -1 Timelines

Arjun Merkava Challenger
Conceived 1972 1970 1958 (As Chieftain)
First Prototype 1984 1974 1959 (As Chieftain)
1974-1977 (As Shir 1/ Khalid)
1980 (As Shir 2)
First Inducted 2004 1979 1983 (Challenger)
Table -1 Combat Weight[4]

Mk 1 Mk 2 Mk 3 Mk 4
Arjun 58.5 68[5]
Merkava 60 61 65 65
Challenger 55 (Chieftain Mk 5) 58 (Shir 1) 62 (Mk 1) 62.5(Mk 2)
The tables above highlight the following points:

• From project conception to first prototype the Arjun took 12 years, the Merkava four years and the Chieftain one year (the short time line was a result of it having been evolvedfrom the Centurion).
• Shir 1 and Shir 2 were improvements on the Chieftain ordered by Iran. The order was cancelled in 1979 after the Iranian revolution. The Shir 2 was improved for British Army requirements in three years’ time and became the Challenger 1.
• From prototype to induction for the Arjun took 20 years, Merkava five years and Challenger three years.
• The combat weight of the Arjun increased by 9.5 tons from Mk 1 to Mk 2, the Merkava by five tons from Mk 1 to 4. In case the Chieftain Mk 5 is called the first Mark of the Challenger, then from Mk 1 to Mk 4 the weight increased by 7.5 tons.
• There has been no increase in the weight of Merkava Mk3 to Mk4 though a number of features have been added including an active protection system and upgradation of the power pack from 1200 hp to 1500 hp.[6]

Tanks are designed (or purchased) based upon the threat from enemy weapons, the physical environment that they are to operate in, and the military doctrine of a country. Post the 1967 and 1973 wars the IDFhad prioritised the requirements in their tank to be armour protection, firepower and mobility.[8] The Merkava was conceived based upon the technological and military wisdom and experience of Maj Gen Israel Tal, one of IDF’s foremost tank commanders.[9]He designed a tank most suited for Israel’s envisagedbattlefield environment and the IDF doctrine of fighting. The Camp David Accord in 1978 and the peace treaty signed the next year with Egypt signalled the end of a major tank threat on the Southern Front of Israel. The 1973 war had seen many more Israeli tank casualties from infantry ATGMs than from tanks. This experience was reinforced in Operation Peace for Galileein Lebanon (1981-1983) where in spite of major Syrian tank forces being committed, Israeli armour casualties were more from ATGMs especially in the rugged hilly area in Eastern Lebanon as well as the built up areas along the coast leading toBeirut. Some early Merkavas were used here[10] and with their capability to carry upto six infantrymen[11]and with an integrated 60mm mortar proved their worth against defiladed[12] anti-tank teams.

For all its success, almost no interest was shown for the Merkavaby foreign armies. The reason is that it is tailor made for the Israeli environment and not for the environments of other countries. This reinforces the argument that the tank we must have must be most suitable for our environment.Those who quote the complete outclassing of the Iraqi T-72 tanks in the Gulf Wars by the 63 ton Abrams and use this to justify heavy tanks, miss out the complete air superiority of the Coalition and the technically obsolescent Iraqi tanks.

The last of the first production batch of 124 Arjun Mk 1 on order will probably be delivered this year. It has been 45 years from conception to final delivery of the Arjun Mk 1. During this same period a Black Swan event[13] happened. A Black Swan event has the following three attributes, Firstly, it lies outside the realm of regular expectations; secondly, it carries an extreme impact; and lastly, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.[14]

The Rajasthan canal was conceived in 1947 but work on it could start only in 1957 after the Indus waters treaty was signed. In 1983 an year before the first prototype of the Arjun was made, Stage I of the canal reached North of Bikaner.[15]The canal led to a Black Swan event in the 32 years that the Arjun Mark I took to enter service. The deserts where tanks could have unrestrained mobility started becoming restricted. A latticework of canals snaked all over especially parallel to the border and are planned to go upto Gadra Road in Barmer district.[16]An area which was classic tank country has gradually changed into a populated area with restricted employability especially for heavy tanks. A majority of the numerous canals that exist there don’t have bridges/culverts to take over 60-ton behemoths.

A tank is cost effective with economies of scale. Presently the 50 ton T-72 tanks are deployed from Ladakh[17] to the Rann of Kutch.Conversely the Arjun, because of its weight constraint,is employed only in restricted areas of Rajasthan. The restriction is compounded because the Arjun does not have appropriate tank transporters, Armoured Recovery Vehicles or Bridge laying tanks. This is a Catch-22 situation of sorts because it is not cost-effective to build such support vehicles without an adequate tank fleet to support.

During the same period weapons and technology have also changed. This is not a Black Swan event, but it has had its effects. The Arjun and the Challenger remain the only two MBTs in the world which have rifled main guns. These are suitable for HESH[18] ammunition which has much reduced effectiveness against modern composite tank armour. Conversely, rifled guns are not the best option for firing either APFSDS[19] ammunition or guided missiles through the main gun, which are contemporary munitions giving enhanced range and kill probability.

The Future Ready Combat Vehicle (FRCV)as the name suggests is conceived as a future solution. The project is proposed to be developed on a modular concept as part of a family of combat vehicles. The tracked Main Battle Tank will be the primary/base variant on which the support and combat vehicles will be based.[20]Headlines in various military columns and online sites cry hoarse that this is killing the Arjun Mark 2 or the DRDO’s proposed FMBT[21] program. However, a design competition to pick up the best design suitable for our doctrine, terrain and environment and which can generate economies of scale is a step worth taking.

It takes little imagination to conclude why the Army feels that the Arjun Mark II which is reaching a 68 ton weight does not meet its requirement for the future. Its basic features were conceived for a different era. A lighter tank made heavier by adding on armour and additional features can still be made to retain its character by getting a more powerful engine. A heavy tank may not be tolerant to be made lighter without the basic design going awry. This piece opines that the FRCV is a good initiative. What is important is that the project should not go the Arjun way with far too long lead times before moving from one stage to the other. If that happens it is not too difficult to predict that we may again see another Black Swan event. When faced with a Black Swan probability it is best to work out radically new approaches than to stick to status quo methods.

Who is responsible for this BS

 

[Indian Patriot]

From prototype to induction for the Arjun took 20 years, Merkava five years and Challenger three years.

It is actually success for DRDO. They actually managed to roll out the prototype.

 

[dray]

Fine, take a wishlist of specs for a new tank from army and tell them it cannot be changed for next 10 years, the wishlist must be based on existing and feasible modern technology, reduce the size of the Arjun tank by making it a 3 crew member tank instead of 4, replace the main gun with a smooth-bore one with an autoloader, add specs as per army's wishlist, and deliver. I think that can be done in 10 years.

The weight issue happened because army wanted a bigger, 4 crew operated, heavily armoured western tank, and not another T-90, and then they wanted to compare the weight with T-90. Arjun's weight is similar to most other western tanks.

 

[Indian Patriot]

Fine, take a wishlist of specs for a new tank from army and tell them it cannot be changed for next 10 years,

In India things go slowly because of sarkari attitude. In foreign things especially technology evolves every year. Tomorrow Russia and US might develop a stealth tank which fires kinetic energy projectiles that can kill a tank from 8 km away. Poland and Russia already have claimed to have a stealth tank design and the Russians already have a powerful, said to be the most powerful tank gun yet, in Armata.

So what is India supposed to do while other countries evolve new tech. Stick to old plans because DRDO is too lazy to come with something new? So pakistan will but from USA the latest tank while India goes about in a mediocre vehicle and in war India gets trumped.

And all this for the sake of DRDO?

 

[dray]

In India things go slowly because of sarkari attitude. In foreign things especially technology evolves every year. Tomorrow Russia and US might develop a stealth tank which fires kinetic energy projectiles that can kill a tank from 8 km away. Poland and Russia already have claimed to have a stealth tank design and the Russians already have a powerful, said to be the most powerful tank gun yet, in Armata.

So what is India supposed to do while other countries evolve new tech. Stick to old plans because DRDO is too lazy to come with something new? So pakistan will but from USA the latest tank while India goes about in a mediocre vehicle and in war India gets trumped.

And all this for the sake of DRDO?

Fine, army should list down the features of Armata and ask DRDO to match it, fair enough? Whatever future developments happen in Russia and USA can be included in future versions of DRDO tank while the current version will be inducted, just like the way T-90 was inducted with many flaws and operational in Russian and Indian army while they were developing the Armata. Future versions are developed from the experience of existing ones, they don't fall from the sky.

And all this for the sake of DRDO?

All this for the sake of India.

 

[T90TankGuy]

 

[Argon Prime]

Fine, army should list down the features of Armata and ask DRDO to match it, fair enough? Whatever future developments happen in Russia and USA can be included in future versions of DRDO tank while the current version will be inducted, just like the way T-90 was inducted with many flaws and operational in Russian and Indian army while they were developing the Armata. Future versions are developed from the experience of existing ones, they don't fall from the sky.



All this for the sake of India.

And I thought you to be a smart person,who would know whom to debate with and whom to not.

 

[surya kiran]

Fine, army should list down the features of Armata and ask DRDO to match it, fair enough? Whatever future developments happen in Russia and USA can be included in future versions of DRDO tank while the current version will be inducted, just like the way T-90 was inducted with many flaws and operational in Russian and Indian army while they were developing the Armata. Future versions are developed from the experience of existing ones, they don't fall from the sky.



All this for the sake of India.

naye ho kya? fartie se discuss kar rahe ho?

 

[Indian Patriot]

Fine, army should list down the features of Armata and ask DRDO to match it, fair enough?

Are you crazy?

Both USA and Russia are possibly the only two countries on earth who invest time and money in their own design and research. Armata is not a copy of any tank, it is their own first innovation. DRDO won't be able to even design the tracks of Armata without Russian support.

Whatever future developments happen in Russia and USA can be included in future versions of DRDO tank while the current version will be inducted,

And how many path-breaking developments has DRDO come up with since it was formed? Why do you think it will be anything different now?

Future versions are developed from the experience of existing ones, they don't fall from the sky.

For DRDO it falls out from T-O-T.

All this for the sake of India.

DRDO is NOT India. And you will do well to remember that. The security of a country cannot be left to an organisation which cannot even design a sewing needle without foreign T-O-T.

 

[dray]

Are you crazy?

Both USA and Russia are possibly the only two countries on earth who invest time and money in their own design and research. Armata is not a copy of any tank, it is their own first innovation. DRDO won't be able to even design the tracks of Armata without Russian support.



And how many path-breaking developments has DRDO come up with since it was formed? Why do you think it will be anything different now?



For DRDO it falls out from T-O-T.



DRDO is NOT India. And you will do well to remember that. The security of a country cannot be left to an organisation which cannot even design a sewing needle without foreign T-O-T.

Okay, you can tell us which DRDO official did it to you.

 

[Indian Patriot]

Okay, you can tell us which DRDO official did it to you.

Why, did the DRDO officials did it to you that you are so fond of them?

When losers like you cannot back your claims with logical points you try to get cheeky and start whining when you get the same treatment in return. So start crying now.