The Afghan endgame, & the potential players

[Yeti]

“If the Gwadar Port is marketed well, the regional ports will lose considerable business,” he said. “It is time we took right decisions. Otherwise Gwadar Port may lose this opportunity to the fast developing Iranian port of Chabahar.”


Gwadar Port continues to depend on govt cargo



This is from today's Pakistani paper even it shows the rapid pace of the Chabahar port

 

[53fd]

Such as? there are no issues with Chahabar port

Please read the opening post of this thread.

There are numerous problems in virtually every thing. You think IP pipeline wont have those issues?? or any other plan that Pakistan has for development in Baluchistan..

Or for that matter, if India depends on Pakistan for its trade with Afghanistan, do you think that is any thing less than manifold the issues that exist with chabbar.. The capacity of Chabbar is already 2.5 MT..

I have answered all your questions in great detail in the opening post of the thread, & I don't want to repeat myself. The Chabahar port, even at 6 MTPA is not big enough. There are other bigger problems as well.

---------- Post added at 08:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:46 PM ----------

Such as? there are no issues with Chahabar port

Please read the opening post of this thread.

There are numerous problems in virtually every thing. You think IP pipeline wont have those issues?? or any other plan that Pakistan has for development in Baluchistan..

Or for that matter, if India depends on Pakistan for its trade with Afghanistan, do you think that is any thing less than manifold the issues that exist with chabbar.. The capacity of Chabbar is already 2.5 MT..

I have answered all your questions in great detail in the opening post of the thread, & I don't want to repeat myself. The Chabahar port, even at 6 MTPA is not big enough. There are other bigger problems as well.

 

[foxbat]

Does anyone know what the capacity of Gwadar port is at this time??

 

[Yeti]

The Chabahar Port serves the purpose of linking Afghanistan with India. But the Chabahar Port itself is operating at a very low capacity (2.5 MPTA), & is located in the Sistan-Balochistan area of Iran, which is rife with insurgency & terrorism violence @bilalhaider



Name me one attack on the Chabahar port? im 99% sure Iran is more than capable of protecting her assets.

 

[VCheng]

You are reading the sentence incorrectly (or maybe I didn't frame it well). I meant to say that if the insurgency in Pakistani Balochistan is contained successfully, & if there isn't too much problem with the insurgency in Iran, then the IP project will be successful.

I am still confused, because "if there isn't too much problem with the insurgency in Iran", then the Chah Bahar port will also be a success with expansion as needed, would it not?

 

[lem34]

Why do you think that was? Was it to ensure a semblance of deterrence, or to provide more horrific tools to kill non-white people? I would submit that is is the former, not the latter.

it was nothing to do with deterrence it was cos russia was seen as a threat and americans couldnt care about indian concerns thats why

 

[Gold1010]

DW Aryan i hate white people 2 *sarcasm*

 

[53fd]

The point of my thread is not to say definitely what will happen in the Afghan endgame, but to explain its magnitude & scope, the competing rivalries inside Afghanistan, & the drawbacks each 'initiative' inside Afghanistan faces. To understand the war on terror properly, one has to understand the Afghan endgame very well.

 

[Nav]

1- Taliban will retain their Rule
2-Pakistani Taliban will convert into pro Pakistani
3-Before leaving Afghanistan USA will try to Teach a lesson To Iran and Mostly Paksitan

 

[regular]

Pakistan and China will have more influence in future once USA leaves or decrease its presence.
India will not get strategic presence as they desire but yes they may become a player in economy.

Pakistans influence can never decrease even US don't leave the place...it will be on increase with the passage of time.....

 

[VCheng]

it was nothing to do with deterrence it was cos russia was seen as a threat and americans couldnt care about indian concerns thats why

I think you underestimate the role played by nuclear deterrence in preventing yet another war in South Asia, and the importance given to this by USA over the decades. Witness the US help in ensuring a safe and redundant C&C system for Pakistan's nukes despite all the issues over Afghanistan.

 

[53fd]

I am still confused, because "if there isn't too much problem with the insurgency in Iran", then the Chah Bahar port will also be a success with expansion as needed, would it not?

Well, the Chabahar port will be used in conjunction with the Indian initiatives inside Afghanistan & Central Asia, & the untapped mineral resources. The road on the Iranian side, from Chabahar to the Afghan border is completed, the road in Nimroz is completed, but the rest of the road infrastructure from Bamiyan is very bad; along with the danger posed by the Taliban stronghold of Nimroz. Making the whole issue very complicated. While India would also like to access Iran's oil & gas resources, the capacity of Chabahar is not that much, & does not have much potential of capacity expansion either. Which is why India is interested in building an underwater gas pipeline from Iran to India, which has its own sets of problems, & is not going anywhere.

The point of my thread is not to say definitely what will happen in the Afghan endgame, but to explain its magnitude & scope, the competing rivalries inside Afghanistan, & the drawbacks each 'initiative' inside Afghanistan faces. To understand the WOT properly, one has to understand the Afghan endgame.

 

[lem34]

I think you underestimate the role played by nuclear deterrence in preventing yet another war in South Asia, and the importance given to this by USA over the decades. Witness the US help in ensuring a safe and redundant C&C system for Pakistan's nukes despite all the issues over Afghanistan.

Stop talking codswallop. America never does something cos its the right thing to do and because its a force of good:

It was a throwback to the Ronald Reagan years when US overlooked Pakistans nuclear weapons programme in return for Pakistani cooperation for defeating USSR in Afghanistan. The "ask no questions" mantra worked. By 1990, Pakistan was a full-blown nuclear weapons power and the Russians had lost.

US-Pak terms of engagement could be in for major overhaul - Times Of India

 

[Rafi]

Indians don't have a problem with Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan, but Pakistanis have a huge issue with India's.

We all can observe and make up our minds, no matter how much the broken record keeps playing.

The best way would be for everyone to have a win/win situation in A-Stan, with the benefits reaped by all, most of all the Afghans - but for that you need trust, which their is a severe lack in our part of the world.

 

[VCheng]

Stop talking codswallop. America never does something cos its the right thing to do and because its a force of good:

It was a throwback to the Ronald Reagan years when US overlooked Pakistans nuclear weapons programme in return for Pakistani cooperation for defeating USSR in Afghanistan. The "ask no questions" mantra worked. By 1990, Pakistan was a full-blown nuclear weapons power and the Russians had lost.

US-Pak terms of engagement could be in for major overhaul - Times Of India

How convenient of you to quote Times of India when it suits you and berate it otherwise!

(and yet you accuse others of hypocrisy! )

US involvement in Pakistan's program goes back a long ways, Sir, and still carries on.