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Tesla rejected by India again, Pakistan may be a better choice

At the start of the New Year, the Indian government again rejected Musk's request to reduce tariffs on imported electric cars. It also means tesla has been denied access to The Indian market again this year.

Back in 2017, Musk captured the imagination of Indians by openly tweeting about his desire to enter the Indian market. Many Tesla fans in India have set up one Tesla club after another in the hope that Tesla will soon enter India.

However, Tesla faces a tough hurdle to cross when trying to enter the Indian market. In The Indian market, the import duty on cars below $40,000 is 60%, while the duty on cars above $40,000 is as high as 100%. Tesla currently has only one model under $40,000.

Indians are being asked to pay twice as much for A Tesla in a country where per capita income is less than a quarter of Chinese. How many Indians can afford a Tesla?

To gain access to the Indian market, Musk frequently lobbied Indian ministries to cut tariffs on imported cars to 40%.
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India's transport minister has declared that Tesla wants access to the Indian market only if it manufactures in India. He also stressed that Tesla cars manufactured in China will not be allowed to enter India.

Tesla had delivered 930,000 vehicles worldwide in 2021, half of which had been made at its Gigafactory in Shanghai. India obviously wants such a gigafactory too. The Modi government has pledged to electrify more than 30% of private cars by 2030. However, of the 2.4 million cars sold in India in 2020, only 5,000 was electric.

Even with a population of 1.3 billion, it is questionable how many Indians can afford a Tesla.

In 2021, BMW, Mercedes and Audi sold more than 2.3 million cars in China compared to 33,000 in India.

General Motors, Ford, Fiat and Peugeot have pulled out. Renault and Skoda are also considering pulling out of India.

At the moment, the only foreign brand doing well in India is Suzuki. Suzuki, which sells well in India, saw its profit plunge 97.9 percent in the first fiscal year of 2020.

It's not just tariffs that are a headache for Tesla but also India's infrastructure and worker efficiency.

India is severely short of electricity. Some Indians joke that the occasional power supply always interrupts the blackout.

It was also a headache for Tesla owners to find charging points when they arrived in India. Therefore, some Indian experts analyzed that Tesla could only sell 150 cars per year in the first five years after entering the Indian market.

India has 1.3 billion people, but it is not a 1.3 billion market. India is more of a trap than an opportunity for Tesla.

Perhaps Pakistan is a better choice

Although Pakistan's population is not as large as India's, it has 200 million people and is a very potential market.

Pakistan has at least five advantages over India.

First, Pakistan has no shortage of electricity. The most important thing for electric cars is a steady power supply. Pakistan has completed a series of power projects with the help of China. Pakistan is a country with abundant electricity.

Second, Pakistan has low tariffs. The tariff on imported electric cars of Pakistan is only 10%, while the tariff on imported cars of India is 60-100%.

Third, roads in Pakistan are better. On the roads in India, you can often meet all kinds of animals such as cows, sheep, elephants. India's roads are potholed, excrement strewn and traffic jams are common.

Roads in Pakistan are much better than in India. Driving a Tesla in Pakistan is far more pleasant than driving in India.

Fourthly, there are few automobile companies in Pakistan market and there is a lack of competition. At present, Pakistan's car market is basically monopolized by three Japanese companies - Suzuki, Toyota and Honda. None of the three companies can compete with Tesla because they make mostly gas-powered cars.

Fifth, Pakistan's government is more friendly to foreign capital. Indian government is also very welcoming to foreign companies, but when they become big in India, Indian government will try to get rid of them and replace them with local companies.

The Indian government has violated market principles and cracked down on Chinese apps. Companies from other countries, such as Wal-Mart, have also suffered from unfair treatment by the Indian government.

In 2020, An Indian fan asked Musk on Twitter when Tesla could come to India. Master replied, "Next year for sure."Now it looks like Musk will have to reply again this year:"Next year for sure."

新年伊始,印度政府再次拒绝了马斯克对于降低进口电动汽车关税的要求。这也意味着,特斯拉今年再次无缘进入印度市场。

早在2017年,马斯克就在推特上公开表示,希望进入印度市场,引起印度人的无限遐想。很多特斯拉的印度粉丝,建立了一个又一个特斯拉俱乐部,希望特斯拉能够早日入印。

然而,特斯拉想要进入印度市场却要面临一个很难跨过的槛。印度市场4万美元以下汽车进口关税为60%,而4万美元以上的汽车关税高达100%。而特斯拉目前只有一款车型售价在4万美元以下。

印度人均收入不到中国的四分之一,却要求印度人花费两倍的价钱购买特斯拉。这样还有几个印度人买得起特斯拉?

为了进入印度市场,马斯克频繁在印度各部门间游说,要求印度把进口汽车关税降到40%。

印度交通部长宣布,特斯拉想要获得印度市场,除非在印度生产。并且,他还强调不允许在中国生产的特斯拉进入印度。

2021年特斯拉全球交付93万辆,这其中有一半产自上海的超级工厂。印度显然也想要这样的超级工厂。莫迪政府提出,2030年私家车电动化覆盖率要达到30%以上。然而,2020年印度卖出240万辆汽车,其中只有5000辆是电动汽车。

虽然印度有13亿人口,但有多少印度人能消费得起特斯拉令人质疑。

2021年,宝马,奔驰,奥迪在中国销售超过230万辆,而在印度市场只有3.3万辆。

通用汽车,福特,菲亚特和标致相继退出印度市场。雷诺、斯柯达也正在考虑退出印度市场。

目前,在印度混得比较好的外国汽车品牌只有铃木了。铃木在印度的销量不错,但2020年第一财年利润却暴跌97.9%。

让特斯拉头疼的,不仅是关税还有印度的基础设施,与工人效率。

印度是个严重缺电的国家。有印度人调侃,偶尔的供电总是打断停电。

特斯拉进入印度后,车主找充电桩充电也是件令人头疼的事。因此,有印度专家分析,特斯拉进入印度市场后,前5年,每年只能卖出150辆。

印度拥有13亿人口,但却不是13亿的市场。印度对于特斯拉来说,与其说印度是个机遇,还不如说,印度是个陷阱。

或许巴基斯坦是个更好的选择

虽然巴基斯坦人口没有印度多,但巴基斯坦也有2亿人,是个非常有潜力的市场。

巴基斯坦相对于印度至少有五点优势。

第一、巴基斯坦不缺电。对于电动汽车来说,最重要的就是稳定的电力供应。巴基斯坦在中国的帮助下,完成了一系列电力工程。现在,巴基斯坦已经是个力富裕的国家。

第二、巴基斯坦关税低。巴基斯坦进口电动汽车关税只有10%,而印度汽车进口关税高达60%-100%。

第三、巴基斯坦路面状况更好。在印度的马路上,你经常会遇到各种动物,比如牛,羊,大象。印度的公路坑坑洼洼,到处都是粪便,堵车更是家常便饭。

巴基斯坦的路况要比印度好得多。在巴基斯坦开特斯拉远比在印度开车惬意。

巴基斯坦市场车企少,缺乏竞争。目前巴基斯坦汽车市场基本被三家日本企业垄断——铃木、丰田、本田。这三家企业都以生产燃油车为主,没有一家企业有能力与特斯拉竞争。

巴基斯坦政府对外国资本更加友好。印度政府也是很欢迎外资的,然而当这些外国企业在印度做大后,印度政府就会办法把这些企业赶走,用本国企业取代。

印度政府违反市场原则,打压中国APP,企业的新闻已屡见不鲜。沃尔玛等其他国家企业也遭遇了印度政府的不公平对待。

2020年,有印度粉丝在推特上问马斯特,特斯拉什么时候可以进入印度。马斯特回复说,“Next year for sure.”(明年一定会)看来,马斯特今年只好又回复,“Next year for sure.”
 
Ignorance has no cure :)

India's Population is 6 times of Pakistan (225M vs 1388M)
India's Electricity Production in 11.5 times of Pakistan (1560900 GWh vs 137800 GWh)
on per basis per-capita it is 83% higher than Pakistan (1124 KHh/person (India) vs 600 KWh/person (Pakistan))

Coming to Roads
India has 3.7 times land area compared to Pakistan (3.2M vs 0.88M SqKm)
India has 23.5 times road network compare to Pakistan (6.2M Kms vs 0.26M Kms)
For easy consumption, India has 189Kms of roadways per 100Km where as Pakistan has just 30Kms per 100 Kms, If you do numbers it is 6.3X (or 530% higher) compared to Pakistan

Anyone can quote/write random articles, what I present is actual facts from trustworthy resources
You are correct - the market size has no comparison neither is the growth. What matters is the bracket with the purchasing power for that product and for now both as percentage and size India’s dwarfs Pakistan.
No tiny Rampur village in India matters for Tesla that makes up the largest portion of India’s population. But the middle class and the 1% that can afford it matter and India has many many more of those than Pakistan.
 
As much as the title is a flamebait, Tesla's problems in India are not the taxes but its unwillingness to make them in India, which would reduce the costs considerably. The rule says that 30% of the parts need to be locally sourced. Given that automotive sector is fairly advanced in India, this should not be a problem, but Elon Musk does not see it that way.

EV is a niche segment, but we can't give exception to one car maker. Musk wants a 'pilot' test for "some time" before he can enter the market. Government can't do that favouritism, when other companies are willing to abide by our rules. It would be unfair.

Musk will come around if he wants to. Otherwise, there is no shortage of foreign and domestic EV companies in a growth market. Sure Tesla is a beautiful car and has models within affordable range of much more Indians now than a decade ago, but it is not something so aspirational that we have to bend rules for one company.
 
Modi economic policy is protectionist

Quite the opposite, actually.

There is an automotive policy in place for anyone to enter Indian market and sell cars. The only thing is that they would get easier access if they make it locally. There is no special "testing" option here as it would be unfair to the existing automakers.

Here, read this:

Can't Have A Situation Where Market Is India But Jobs Are In China: Govt On Tesla

Automotive is quite an advanced sector in India with the availability of a strong ecosystem to support local operations here. In fact, Tesla would be smart to enter now and create a strong ecosystem, the way Suzuki did, partnering with Maruti Udyog back in the 80s. It was a hectic initially, but today they rule.

Tesla or any automaker is most welcome in India and will be given the special concessions if they make it in the country.
 
Tesla does not believe that India has enough high income market to substantiate a significant share of local manufacturing in the country. India on the flip side is not willing to let Tesla import cars into the country without a levy that other imported cars are subjected to. Essentially, it is a conflict of interest between two parties.

If Pakistan is willing to import Tesla without levy or convince Tesla that it has a substantial number of high income earners to sustain local manufacturing, then there will be scope for partnership between both parties :cheers:
 

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