Tesla Full Self Driving Beta now has over 100,000 drivers in the program

[Hamartia Antidote]

The average human driver would still be safer than an AI driven car for many decades at least in your typical built up area.

If all the cars are talking to each other I can't see how you are coming to this conclusion. There will be a day when there will be no stop signs or streetlights.

 

[UKBengali]

If all the cars are talking to each other I can't see how you are coming to this conclusion. There will be a day when there will be no stop signs or streetlights.

I have a physics and computer science background and can tell you this is not happening for many decades at least.

Even Musk admitted it on a recent TV interview. The AI and sensing is nowhere near at this stage.

In highways where there are no pedestrians, roadside obstacles and there is usually free flowing traffic, yes it is possible and potentially safer than human drivers.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

I have a physics and computer science background and can tell you this is not happening for many decades at least.

Aren't you being incredibly pessimistic by off-handedly feeling it is "many decades" away?

Yes, it isn't working perfectly today...but this is not something that is going to require "many decades" to reach "typical human quality safe driving".

Waymo already has driverless vans on roads that can handle a high percentage of situations. They aren't running over people or crashing left and right.

Considering the 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge winner (led by Waymo's founder) was averaging only 20 mph and only 5 vehicles made it to the finish this is quite an improvement.

Even Musk admitted it on a recent TV interview. The AI and sensing is nowhere near at this stage.

Um is it after this TED one done on April 17th, 2022 where he says he is confident they are very close to the finish line...and that doesn't mean being the best driver in the world.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

More "Americana"

Black Tesla driving in the Newark/New York City suburbs

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Tesla FSD slams on the brakes as a pickup truck runs a red light and crashes into it.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

 

[WotTen]

If all the cars are talking to each other I can't see how you are coming to this conclusion. There will be a day when there will be no stop signs or streetlights.

Real life has pesky little things called pedestrians, stray animals, and random garbage. Self-driving cars tend to either brake harshly or swerve around them. They drive like a 70 year old Mr. Magoo. And that's before we even talk about road signs while are illegible because of dirt, snow, or weathering.

A road full of self-driving cars would be like a senior center demolition derby.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Real life has pesky little things called pedestrians, stray animals, and random garbage. Self-driving cars tend to either brake harshly or swerve around them. They drive like a 70 year old Mr. Magoo. And that's before we even talk about road signs while are illegible because of dirt, snow, or weathering.

A road full of self-driving cars would be like a senior center demolition derby.

Are you watching any of the above videos? There is no harsh slamming or swerving happening.

But most pedestrians in the US aren't casually walking in the road so maybe this is not a good test of rest-of-world behavior.

I agree though that in general the self-driving cars are driving slower than the general public...who typically drive well over the speed limit on urban streets.

 

[WotTen]

Are you watching any of the above videos? There is no harsh slamming or swerving happening.

I don't doubt that these cars can handle themselves in ideal or above average road conditions. The problem is always about unexpected scenarios and it will take a lot of road time before I will be convinced.

Consumer products need to be tested way beyond the expected envelope, as in commercial airplanes or cars. For self-driving cars, the reverse is true so far: we haven't even covered the normal envelope, never mind the extreme outliers.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Consumer products need to be tested way beyond the expected envelope, as in commercial airplanes or cars. For self-driving cars, the reverse is true so far: we haven't even covered the normal envelope, never mind the extreme outliers.

That's exactly why 100,000 people are testing the Beta in various conditions across the US and Canada.

This is also why Elon Musk says companies that rely on "computer generated simulated data" (instead of real world) to prove their systems worth are in for a surprise.

 

[WotTen]

That's exactly why 100,000 people are testing the Beta in various conditions across the US and Canada.

This is also why Elon Musk says companies that rely on "computer generated simulated data" (instead of real world) to prove their systems worth are in for a surprise.

I agree Elon is doing the right thing. I just disagree with his often-exaggerated claims and predictions which seem to be driven more by marketing than science.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

I agree Elon is doing the right thing. I just disagree with his often-exaggerated claims and predictions which seem to be driven more by marketing than science.

If anything other car companies are making even more bolder claims about their soon to be released self-driving capabilities...they don't seem to be interested in running any kind of huge realworld Alpha/Beta tests at all.

At least with Tesla we can see the progress made with each Beta iteration released as average consumers are posting videos of it in actual real world scenarios. This better than few-and-far-between videos of other companies FSD programs.

Having this many testers (~100,000) is quite an accomplishment. We aren't hearing horror stories left and right about FSD cars jumping curbs and mowing down people.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

 

[Hamartia Antidote]