TAPI gas pipeline project inked

[The_Assassin]

Afghanistan and Pakistan can consume double digit billions of dollars of gas per year, taken as an average over a 20-30 year period say. So the overall carriage of gas for just these two nations would run into hundreds of billions

Wow !!! And you have also factored the other 'T', the TTP ??? Security is a very big issue. Neither Afghan Taliban nor Pak Taliban will make this dream any easy for both Pak and Afghanistan.

 

[TechLahore]

Wow !!! And you have also factored the other 'T', the TTP ??? Security is a very big issue. Neither Afghan Taliban nor Pak Taliban will make this dream any easy for both Pak and Afghanistan.

In 5 years, by the time the pipeline completes, NATO will be long gone. After that, simply bribing the necessary tribes in Afghanistan will smooth matters over. That's the way things have been running for hundreds of years. In large part it is the presence of outsiders in Afghanistan that makes the situation completely intractable because the tribes have a visceral reaction... you can call it a tribal rebellion, taliban, mujahideen or whatever, but the basic xenophobic reaction is at the heart of it.

 

[The_Assassin]

In March 2010 Iran and Pakistan signed an agreement on the pipeline in Ankara.

In April, 2010, Iran announced that it has completed construction of 1,000 kilometres of the pipeline out of the 1,100 kilometres' portion on Iranian soil.

So you didn't get the Iranian bluffing in this. Just tell me one thing. If you are negotiating with a customer for any business deal, would you ever invest huge sums of money even before getting a contract signed ???

So in March,2010 Pak signed the agreement and Iran was so much sure about the project go-ahead despite repeated US disagreement, that it started working on the project even before the pricing formula was agreed to by Pak ???

Iran must have done this for it's internal use or is bluffing Pak, like it recently raised it's proven oil reserve with unsubstantiated claims. After all business is business and in these uncertain times when Iran itself is not sure of what steps the International community might take to hamper it's nuclear pursue, this is simply bluffing.

 

[The_Assassin]

In 5 years, by the time the pipeline completes, NATO will be long gone. After that, simply bribing the necessary tribes in Afghanistan will smooth matters over. That's the way things have been running for hundreds of years. In large part it is the presence of outsiders in Afghanistan that makes the situation completely intractable because the tribes have a visceral reaction... you can call it a tribal rebellion, taliban, mujahideen or whatever, but the basic xenophobic reaction is at the heart of it.

Great !!! Just tell this theory to US which is wasting so much money and human lives on bringing the situation under control. If money could buy anything in these regions then US would have made it more calm than Heaven. And moreover just tell me of whom is the TTP xenophobic of ??? Punjabi Pakistanis or Shias ???
You are just typecasting a complex quagmire problem. It ain't that easy. Moreover the Iran-Pak pipeline will pass through the Balochistan which is fighting for independence from Pak for the last 6 decades. Would it have been so easy to placate them, then ISI would have pour a hell lot of money on them and so does the Iranians. Problems/Insurrection can't be typecast, they are more complex than a simple money transaction would solve them.

 

[ares]

I don't think India should sign the deal. This is really not in India's interest from what I can tell.

Yes, I agree with you on this but for an entirely different reason. I don't think any life line for India passing through pakistani territory is in India's strategic interest.

By the time this pipeline is completed (5+ years), Pakistan's energy import bill will be somewhere in the $12-15B range. Afghanistan and Pakistan can consume double digit billions of dollars of gas per year, taken as an average over a 20-30 year period say. So the overall carriage of gas for just these two nations would run into hundreds of billions. If you add TAP as a redundant delivery mechanism for Xinjiang, in China, then you will increase this even further. While China does have a pipeline that connects it to Turkmenistan, it goes through Uzbekistan and Kazakhistan and lands significantly north of where the TAP(C) could terminate. This would allow China to use each pipeline to more efficiently deliver gas to multiple provinces. TAP(C) would also give China strategic redundancy.

Leaving aside Chinese, as they are not the part of present deal.
You are saying Pakistan and Afghanistan will pay in double digit billion $ per year for gas but this money will be paid to Turmekistan(for gas) and Afghanistan (for transit)..How much of this money will be paid to American company after the pipeline has already been built?

As for conspiracy theories, I can't recall where I supported any. I am simply pointing out some facts to you, but because you are proving to be an exceptionally assumptive individual, you continue to draw conclusions to support your preconceived notions. I am no one to deny you the pleasure of concocting your own delusions. Please, proceed.

Where did assume any information..all I am asking is questions.

I could have argued you over the massive generatlisations you made in post 8 , but I choose to look at bigger picture find out why Pakistanis on this forum think that 9/11 was an inside job.

 

[sanibhagwan]

also note that despite all the noise that india makes about non-coperation with Pakistan due to this and that but when it comes to US interest they are made to co-operate no matter what and they are dictated to by the US ( much like everyone else )

Oh, just because of American interests we are buying gas... Otherwise India doesn't need gas. Great.

We are an energy deficient country. We would buy it from anyone, if the prize is affordable. That includes Pakistan too.

There was a discussion for an undersea gas pipeline from Iran, but the project cost was provocatively expensive. If pakistan could provide security for IPI pipeline, it could have earned in millions as royalty from India.

So, ultimately its the U.S which is doing the bidding on behalf of india.

In your terms

"when it comes to Indian interest U.S is made to co-operate no matter what and they are dictated to by the India"

 

[TechLahore]

Great !!! Just tell this theory to US which is wasting so much money and human lives on bringing the situation under control. If money could buy anything in these regions then US would have made it more calm than Heaven. And moreover just tell me of whom is the TTP xenophobic of ??? Punjabi Pakistanis or Shias ???

Ok. So you actually don't have a clue. Do you really understand the issues at hand?

The US has to be out of Afghanistan before bribes will work. That was my point. Which you missed.

Xenophobia is a negative reaction to outsiders, i.e. the US. Shias have been in Afghanistan for a thousand+ years. They are not outsiders.

By the way, do you know that the British came to the same conclusion. They tried military incursions into Afghanistan, got their a$$ handed to them, had all their troops killed and only one soldier was left alive to take a message back to their garrison. They realized that the only way to operate in this region was to have the tribes on your side. And the only way to have the tribes on your side is to fulfill their needs.

If you have ever driven through the mountains in the Khyber pass area, you will see british regimental insignias and memorials carved into stone all through. You can see where british units were ambushed, destroyed and beaten back. This is the history of the place, quite literally, carved into rock.

Please develop a sense for the area, the people, the history and then come back to resume the discussion. Currently, you make no sense.

 

[TechLahore]

Yes, I agree with you on this but for an entirely different reason. I don't think any life line for India passing through pakistani territory is in India's strategic interest.

Exactly. India should absolutely not participate in either IP(C) or TAP(C).

Leaving aside Chinese, as they are not the part of present deal.
You are saying Pakistan and Afghanistan will pay in double digit billion $ per year for gas but this money will be paid to Turmekistan(for gas) and Afghanistan (for transit)..How much of this money will be paid to American company after the pipeline has already been built?

Typically, the money is paid to the company operating the gas field. They then work out a deal with the host nation, paying X amount for the raw material/resource in question.

I could have argued you over the massive generatlisations you made in post 8 , but I choose to look at bigger picture find out why Pakistanis on this forum think that 9/11 was an inside job.

"Pakistanis on this forum" are not a homogenous group holding the same opinion on everything. I never said 9/11 was an inside job and I did answer all the questions you asked. I thought you were being incredibly obtuse in refusing to see that 9/11 did allow an opportunity to resolve the old UNOCAL dispute. If you further consider the Karzai/UNOCAL connection it does become clear that this issue had some bearing on the post 9/11 Afghan scenario. That is not to say that 9/11 was a conspiracy... only that the handling of the post 9/11 scenario took many facts into consideration, the UNOCAL dispute being one.

 

[pakdefender]

And as soon as India drags it's feet, the project will be dead or reach the current state of Iran-Pak pipeline where Pak has no money either for pipeline or to pay for gas.

It will be interesting too see india drag its feet in the face of US interests , the US has openly opposed the IPI where as for the TAPI they have shown willingness to go to war so like I said it will be interesting to see what becomes of india should it drag its feet on this project

 

[The_Assassin]

The US has to be out of Afghanistan before bribes will work. That was my point. Which you missed.

I was also talking about that scenario. So according to you have said that if the US leaves and Pay the bribes to the tribes, that should work. Right ??? But it ain't that easy. You don't understand the real problem here.

Xenophobia is a negative reaction to outsiders, i.e. the US. Shias have been in Afghanistan for a thousand+ years. They are not outsiders.

I was talking about the TTP, which fights mainly against the Pak army. Just tell me what is their problem ??? Why would they allow the Gas pipeline to pass through peacefully. Of whom are they xenophobic as they are also fighting for some reasons. Are they xenophobic of Pak army or Pakistani Punjabi's or the Pakistani Shias ??? And why hasn't pak tried it's bribes on them. Till now your assertions are proving to be hollow and without substantiated arguments.

By the way, do you know that the British came to the same conclusion. They tried military incursions into Afghanistan, got their a$$ handed to them, had all their troops killed and only one soldier was left alive to take a message back to their garrison. They realized that the only way to operate in this region is to have the tribes on your side. And the only way to have the tribes on your side is to fulfill their needs.

If you have ever driven through the mountains in the Khyber pass area, you will see british regimental insignias and memorials carved into stone all through. You can see where british units were ambushed, destroyed and beaten back. This is the history of the place, quite literally, carved into rock.

Please develop a sense for the area, the people, the history and then come back to resume the discussion. Currently, you make no sense.

The Britishers make no sense in this discussion. They neither had the numbers nor the superior technology available today. What do you want to convey with this particular example ??? Do you want to prove that the TTP and Afghan Taliban can't be defeated ??? Because if so then the gas pipeline could never work.

 

[ares]

Exactly. India should absolutely not participate in either IP(C) or TAP(C).

Agreed.

Typically, the money is paid to the company operating the gas field. They then work out a deal with the host nation, paying X amount for the raw material/resource in question.

Again you are assuming American will own/operate the gas field in Turmekistan.

Where as the thread starter pointed out that Unocal(which is now a defunct company and part of Cheveron group) will be building infrastructure(ie: Pipeline and booster station) in Afghanistan.
how much money do you think a simple infrastructure provider company will be making after the infrastructure(which requires little maintainace) has been built.
And why will such a company work on commission? to except percentage of raw material?

"Pakistanis on this forum" are not a homogenous group holding the same opinion on everything. I never said 9/11 was an inside job and I did answer all the questions you asked. I thought you were being incredibly obtuse in refusing to see that 9/11 did allow an opportunity to resolve the old UNOCAL dispute. If you further consider the Karzai/UNOCAL connection it does become clear that this issue had some bearing on the post 9/11 Afghan scenario. That is not to say that 9/11 was a conspiracy... only that the post 9/11 scenario took many facts into consideration, the UNOCAL dispute being one.

I know you did not, but at the same time although being active on the thread you chose to correct me and not the other poster, although you say you do not agree with him.

 

[pakdefender]

I was talking about the TTP, which fights mainly against the Pak army. Just tell me what is their problem ???

Money talks in tribal areas and for now there are no other more profitable professions in FATA these days other than militancy. These militant gets pays that are in many cases better than what even some government workers gets.

Large sums of money are flowing into FATA from afghanistan , this financing comes from many sources, which also includes Indian funding to these groups

For now Yindo and Yahudi objectives may be inline with unreset so Yanky lets the this money flow into FATA but once this pipeline is in place and Yankee objectives are met, the stock prices are up, corporate profits are high and tax revenues of the USG increase due to this project then ensuring peace wil the region will be main yankee objective and then Yindo and Yahudi will have to find some other way to go on killing Muslims in Pakistan.

 

[ajtr]

I think this can work as far as TAP is concerned, but I don't think this is in India's interests. I really think they should reconsider. The strategy they adopted for the IPI pipeline should be repeated... even if they've expressed initial interest, there is still plenty of time to pull out.

when american blessings are there for this project then why would india back out.American blesssings were not there for IPI hence india pulled out from it.

 

[pakdefender]

Agreed.



Again you are assuming American will own/operate the gas field in Turmekistan.

Where as the thread starter pointed out that Unocal(which is now a defunct company and part of Cheveron group) will be building infrastructure(ie: Pipeline and booster station) in Afghanistan.
how much money do you think a simple infrastructure provider company will be making after the infrastructure(which requires little maintainace) has been built.
And why will such a company work on commission? to except percentage of raw material?





I know you did not, but at the same time although being active on the thread you chose to correct me and not the other poster, although you say you do not agree with him.

Unocal becoming part of Chevron doesnt change the overal objectives of those who have stakes in the company. The USG has gone to great lengths to secure projects related to this pipeline and no amout of spin can change the following facts:


Unocal
Unocal

 

[Pukhtoon]

The Assassin: : The Britishers make no sense in this discussion. They neither had the numbers nor the superior technology available today. What do you want to convey with this particular example ??? Do you want to prove that the TTP and Afghan Taliban can't be defeated ??? Because if so then the gas pipeline could never work

And with that so called superior technology they are still there where they were ten years ago ?

why they didnt win after ten years ?