Taiwan would not survive month of attack

[Krueger]

WILL TO FIGHT? Tsai Der-sheng contradicted the defense minister, saying the nation might not last a month against China unless the public was willing to resist an invasion

By Rich Chang, Lo Tien-pin and Jake Chung / Staff reporters, with staff writer
March 11, 2014


National Security Bureau Director Tsai Der-sheng answers questions on how long Taiwan could withstand an attack from China, unaided, at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee yesterday.
Photo: Wang Min-wei, Taipei Times

National Security Bureau Director Tsai Der-sheng (蔡得勝) yesterday contradicted a statement made by Minister of National Defense Yen Ming (嚴明) on how long the country could withstand a Chinese attack.

Yen had said last week that Taiwan could survive “at least one month,” should China invade, without help from the US, adding the estimate was based on conclusions drawn from various war games.

Tsai was responding a request from Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Chien Tung-ming (簡東明) at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee yesterday to comment on Yen’s remarks.

“The Ministry of National Defense has a better understanding of the military strength of both sides, so it said Taiwan’s military will be able to withstand a Chinese attack for one month. Yet whether the nation is capable of resisting for a month depends on the public’s will to resist an invasion. If everyone wants to leave, [Taiwan] might not be able to withstand for a month,” Tsai said.

He added that modern warfare proceeds very quickly, unlike during World War I or World War II.

Meanwhile, regarding the Legislative Yuan’s review of the cross-strait services trade agreement that is slated to begin tomorrow, Tsai yesterday said that any increased cross-strait interaction runs the risk of compromising national security, as China would attempt to infiltrate Taiwan.

However, he added that the bureau has already made a security assessment last month and taken necessary precautions with all related government agencies, but that the risks were minimal.

The assessment was sent to the Legislative Yuan last week, he added.

Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Tsai Huang-liang (蔡煌瑯) said that 784 Chinese are known to have overstayed their visas, with the number of illegal Chinese in the country coming to more than 1,000 if those smuggled in were also included.

These Chinese are in every part of the country, and pose considerable risk to society and national security, Tsai Huang-liang said.

When asked by if the bureau could get an accurate number on Chinese in Taiwan, Tsai Der-sheng said that if the bureau did not know the whereabouts of a Chinese national, then it did not keep tabs on them.

“We will attempt to find out their location and residence to do our best at maintaining security,” Tsai Der-sheng said.

Taiwan would not survive month of attack, NSB says - Taipei Times

 

[tranquilium]

Ever since the last decade, PLA's projected military liberation time for Taiwan has always been around 48 hours. Judging by the past record, PLA's number tends to be very close to the reality and Taiwan military's prediction has always been extremely "optimistic".

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

More likely less than 2 days of attack.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

All those thousands of cruise missiles, conventional short range ballistic missiles, and rocket artillery will do the job very quickly.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Even 48 hours is optimistic.

 

[sincity]

Why would China want to destroy Taiwan if Taiwan don't declare independent? Important to note, Taiwan isn't US defeated British and declare Independent from Britist empire.

 

[terranMarine]

Why would China want to destroy Taiwan if Taiwan don't declare independent? Important to note, Taiwan isn't US defeated British and declare Independent from Britist empire.

China does not want to destroy the island or kill our own brothers, but don't expect the island to stay status quo for eternity. If majority of the people wish to stay status quo and don't want a peaceful unification in the near future then the only thing left is use of force. It's that simple, plus technically speaking we are still at war as no peace treaty was ever signed just like NK/SK but our situation is not that dramatic as our neighbors. When our naval and air forces are ready, the battle wouldn't last long and unification is complete. Everything depends on TW's government willingness to reintegrate back with Mainland, either comply or die.

 

[Water Car Engineer]

China can do what they will with Taiwan. Nothing anyone can do about it.

 

[GR!FF!N]

actually,things aren't so easy which one thinks...Amphibious Assault is always one of the most difficult form of Warfare.I'll put it just behind of Airborne Invasion.Success of an Amphibious Invasion lies on several several points.

Objective-- To capture entire Taiwan and make it submission.now,Taiwan's Force isn't weak.it is somewhat good according to its size and truly can defend itself to certain point.

Intelligence

Approach--China may target some unguarded beaches,which may reduce their casualty.but their journey will be none the less perilous.see,Taiwan has a capable Navy.they owns a lot of ASCM.Smaller Crafts armed with ASCM(missile Boats like Kuang Hua VI, which Taiwan has some around 40)could be used by great effectiveness to damage these troop carrying ships.plus,Coastal Arty will be another thing of concern.nobody could expect to wipe out entire "Coastal Battery" using Missiles and Bombing.even 30% of Coastal Arty could be devastating.

Assault--if we look towards the battle plans of Taiwan,they're relying on their Army now to defend their Shoreline and Battle will be fought there.their objective will be denying any space to invading force and if it fails,to hold it along the shoreline with the performing "Counter Attack" with help of Navy and Airforce.now,securing beaches in the face of mobile Arty and SRBM will be one of the major challenge.plus,PLA will need to send tens of thousands,if not hundreds of thousand to just secure this beaches.see,most of the beaches of Taiwan is fortified,which will be tough to secure.its easy to say that "thousands of missiles will completely crush its defence bla bla bla",but Gulf War showed that it doesn't.Enemy could regroup even in the face of overwhelming superiority.plus,Taiwan's most(if not all) Airbases are now have Hardened Bases,just like mainland does.it'll be not so easy to cripple their force effectively within short span of time.

Lodgement---To perform this,they've to completely secure these Beachheads so that reinforcements and equipments can be carried out,which is too hard if your opponent has Long Range Arty,cruise missiles and other weapons which could be used to target Ships and Beach Bombardments.

Breakout--Next stage of war.they've to leave Beach and have to headed for inland.now,if we count some 2.5-3 hundred thousand soldiers which will remain and will have defensive posture,clearing this kind of force will need around 2-3 times more soldiers.

the main problem of Amphibious Warfare is bringing all the equipment and Men needed to perform the war.they'll need dozens of LST,LHD/LPD along with constant air support just to secure the beaches and neutralize the opposing force there.now imagine much larger operations just to bring the force which will head for inland.that'll need so massive number of troop carrying ships and aircrafts which China doesn't possess now.now get an estimate that how many ship will be lost(worst case),and if China could carry out the war even in the face of that kind of loss...

now decide whether it is easy or lil bit difficult.

 

[xunzi]

^KMT are mostly pro-China and they are the one controlling the military, my Indian friend. LOL

A high possibility of massive KMT defect will make this war very short. I never doubt Taiwan is within the eyes of her motherland. However we have no reason to attack Taiwan if they stick with status quo and don't declare independent.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

now decide whether it is easy or lil bit difficult.

So you're trying to argue that it will be a "lil bit difficult"?

Sure. It probably will be.

But this is the unfinished Chinese Civil War, nothing short of global nuclear Armageddon will stop Chinese Reunification.

I will always hope for a peaceful reunification, but there is a limit to how long the "Republic of China" can continue to serve Western interests against their own motherland. Luckily there are many patriots left in the ROC, who will make our job easier.

In 10-20 years, the choice will have to be made.

 

[GR!FF!N]

So you're trying to argue that it will be a "lil bit difficult"?

Sure. It probably will be.

But this is the unfinished Chinese Civil War, nothing short of global nuclear Armageddon will stop Chinese Reunification.

I will always hope for a peaceful reunification, but there is a limit to how long the "Republic of China" can continue to serve Western interests against their own motherland. Luckily there are many patriots left in the ROC, who will make our job easier.

In 10-20 years, the choice will have to be made.

you probably didn't understand what I meant by "Lil Bit Difficult"..since some posters were saying it'll be "Piece of Cake",thats what I said that.Amphibious Warfare is One of the Warfare of Highest Difficulty(Next to only Airborne Assault).sure China could win any war against Taiwan.but that'll sure going to be a Pyrrhic Victory,way too costly than benefit accrued.

^KMT are mostly pro-China and they are the one controlling the military, my Indian friend. LOL

A high possibility of massive KMT defect will make this war very short. I never doubt Taiwan is within the eyes of her motherland. However we have no reason to attack Taiwan if they stick with status quo and don't declare independent.

when you're going to quote my post,atleast try to quote it than using this ^ sign...

Actually,I'm going for Govt response than some "Party Affairs".According to Taiwan and KMT,their aim was to capture Mainland from CCP.but probably they dropped this "Aim" in favor of "Defend The Taiwan" from any invasion from Mainland.other parts of your comment is useless,as China tried several times to attack Taiwan,even when they didn't declare Independence.

 

[xunzi]

when you're going to quote my post,atleast try to quote it than using this ^ sign...

Actually,I'm going for Govt response than some "Party Affairs".According to Taiwan and KMT,their aim was to capture Mainland from CCP.but probably they dropped this "Aim" in favor of "Defend The Taiwan" from any invasion from Mainland.other parts of your comment is useless,as China tried several times to attack Taiwan,even when they didn't declare Independence.

You talk way too much for someone who doesn't understand KMT politics. Fraction of KMT itself is very pro-China and they would be willing to reunify with China. these pro-China KMT politicians are not regular ranking members. They are high-ranking in the army, themselves. We try several times to attack Taiwan? Are you smoking crack at the moment? Remind me of any invasion on Taiwan? So far, we keep our promise to Taiwan since 1990s which is "One country, two systems" approach. However, don't mistake us for being generous and afraid of war that we will allow Taiwan independence. That will never happen and there is no compromise on that. We will destroy Taiwan with nuclear weapon than to let it fall under any regime. Ask Russian on Crimea and you will understand our thinking.

 

[GR!FF!N]

We try several times to attack Taiwan? Are you smoking crack at the moment? Remind me of any invasion on Taiwan?

Taiwan???Nope.but should I remind you assault on various islands which CCP took from Taiwan after 1950???or should I remind you about Second Taiwan Crisis??what do you think what Taiwan is bro??just one large island of Taiwan??

about your "Highly Placed Pro-China KMT Officials",are you sure they'll handover their country,which was founded after their defeat of mainland to CCP??pro-China may be,but surely,they aren't Pro-CCP.whatever,I don't want to debate on "Unaccountable Remarks".

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

@xunzi Sorry I rated your post wrong, I've corrected it now.