The Accountant
PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
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Pakistan has 76 (eventually 84) F-16.
Taiwan: US$1.85 billion/142units= $13,028,169.01 per unit
Assuming all PAF F-16 could technically and economically be brought up to V standard, that's US$0.99 billion for 76, or US$1.09 billion for 84.
The Taiwanese deal doesn't include any missiles either.
Recent AIM-120C-7 (pending) sales, from DSCA (there are some more AIM-120C7 ordered, but rolled into a larger package with either aircraft or avariety of munitions or both, so these are not so price indicative):
Malaysia (2015): 10 AIM-120C7 AMRAAM Missiles and associated equipment, parts and logistical support for an estimated cost of $21 million. Ave.= US$2.1/missile
Japan (2014): 17 AIM-120C7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM), 2 Captive Air Training Missiles (CATMs), associated equipment, parts and logistical support for estimated cost of $33 million. Ave.= US$1.74/missile
Norway (2014): 36 AIM-120C-7 AMRAAM Missiles, 8 Captive Air Training Missiles (CATMs), and associated equipment, parts, training and logistical support for an estimated cost of $80 million. Ave.= US$1.82/missile
Turkey (2014): 145 AIM-120C-7 AMRAAM missiles and associated equipment, parts, training and logistical support for an estimated cost of $320 million. Ave.= US$2.21/missile
Singapore (2013): 100 AIM-120C7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) and associated equipment, parts, training and logistical support for an estimated cost of $210 million. Ave.= US$2.1/missile
Switserland (2010): 150 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM), 6 AIM-120C-7 Telemetry Missiles, and associated parts, equipment, training and logistical support for a complete package worth approximately $358 million. Ave.= US$2.29/missile
Bahrain (2009): 25 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) and associated equipment, parts and services at an estimated cost of $74 million. Ave.= US$2.96/missile
Chile (2009): 100 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles and associated parts, equipment and logistical support worth approximately $145 million. Ave.= US$1.45/missile
Jordan (2009): 85 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) and associated equipment, parts and logistical support at an estimated cost of $131 million. Ave.= US$1.54/missile
Finland (2008): 300 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM), and associated equipment and services. The total value, if all options are exercised, could be as high as $435 million. Ave.= US$1.45/missile
Ave of Ave's: US$ 1.97 million per missile
Note: this gives equal weight to all packages, while it is likely that some states require more 'associated parts, equipment, training and logistics support' than others e.g. because the state of their air forces (negative effect) or because they already operate some AIM-120 variant (positive effect). Also, some states have small orders and others large orders and one could expect large orders to be a bit less expensive than small ones (economies of scale, bargaining positions)
Total missiles=984
Total Value= US$ 1.807 billion
Ave.: US$ 1.84 million per missile
Note: this smooths differences in country support needs.
Average order
missiles= 184
value= US$ 329 million
Ave.: US$ 1.79 million per missile
Note: This smooths differences in order size
Best case: US$0.99b for 76 upgrades to F16V + 184 AIM120C7 missiles at US$1.79m per missile = US$1.32b
Worst case: US$1.09b for 84 upgrade to F16V + 184 AIM120C7 missiles at US$1.84m per missile = US$1.43b
As compared to: "it will cost us around 1.5 billion usd".
Source: https://defence.pk/threads/taiwan-begins-f-16v-modernisation-effort.473018/#ixzz4W6KLtNhE
By comparision, the only Su-35S export thusfar is to China:
November 20, 2015: "China and Russia have finally signed a contract estimated to be worth $2 billion for the purchase of 24 Russian-made Sukhoi Su-35 multirole fighter jets... The purchasing price per aircraft is estimated at $83 to 85 million."
http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/confirmed-china-buys-24-advanced-fighter-jets-from-russia/
AFAIK I don't know if this includes weapons and services but venture a guess that it does (see articles below). It may also include a premium due the fact that Chine seeks to obtain better jet engines and has a record of reverse engineering Russian imports.
Other estimates for this aircraft range from US$40 million to $65 million (estimated).
18/08/2009: The Russian Defense Ministry and the Sukhoi aircraft maker signed on Tuesday a contract on the delivery of 64 Su fighters to the Russian Air Force. The contract, signed during the MAKS-2009 air show in Zhukovsky near Moscow, stipulates the delivery of 48 Su-35 by 2015, and 12 Su-27SM and four Su-30M2 multirole fighters by 2011. The value of the contract was not disclosed, but according to open sources, the cost of a Su-35 fighter, billed as "4++ generation using fifth-generation technology," is estimated at up to $65 million. Russia also plans to export at least 160 Su-35 fighters to several countries including India, Malaysia and Algeria."
https://web.archive.org/web/20090821150710/http://en.rian.ru/russia/20090818/155845491.html
This ties together information from prior article, listed below.
13 August 2009: "Customer fighters were Russian Air Force. They plan to buy 48 Su-35 fighters, four Su-30M2 and 12 Su-27SM. One Su-35 costs more than $ 40 million, and the Su-27 and Su-30 - more than 30 million. Except the aircraft, the Russian Air Force will order additional equipment and weapons, so the contract costs around three billion dollars."
http://lenta.ru/news/2009/08/13/sukhoi/
This is just the aircraft, and do Russian Air Force (not export)
8 Jul, 2008: "Russian fighter maker Sukhoi hoped to impress military officials from Venezuela, Malaysia and China not only with the abilities of its new aircraft, but also by its price....Experts estimate the price of the new Su-35 at around 65 million dollars and predict strong demand"
https://www.rt.com/business/sukhoi-shows-off-its-new-super-agile-fighter/
This may be with additional equipment and/or weapons, as the article is export oriented.
In 2001, Sukhoi partnered with Avibras to submit the Su-27M for the US$700 million tender that would see at least twelve aircraft delivered to the Brazilian Air Force.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-35#Failed_bids
That's US$58 million per SU-27M aircraft.
ANYWAY, given the Chinese deal an amount of between US$1.32b US$1.43b would buy Pakistan 16-17 Su-35. The choice is between 1 squadron Su-35 plus or 4-5 squadrons of F-16 asd is, or 4-5 squadrons of F-16V.
Great analysis, very objective and to the point ...
Sir you coming into the thread means now we will be having real learning. I always respect your posts and are very informative ...
Sir just few things to highlight for your comments and further guidance...
1) I don't think all of the Pakistan's F16 can go directly go to V upgrade as some of our fighters were not MLUed and are at adf standards and hence extra expense in terms of structural upgrades. So any estimates how much increased cost will it be ?
2) Even if we get them upgraded to V but still we have only 18 with CFT and hence loiter time is limited hence they will still be flying principally in our own airspace where we already have support from ground radars AWACS and link 17 therefore I can compromise on AESA radar (which is main updgrade of V as per my understanding which is limited).
3) No matter what we say most of our F16s are almost 30 years old and now we have extracted too much out of them ... if we do not switch to another high-end 4th generation platform than there is a risk that we might come to situation where we do not have any fighter other than JF17 .... If we start negotiations on SU35 now then it will take atleast 5 years of induction and even more time for complete training ... so at that time our F16 might become too old ...
4) The biggest hurdle is unpredictable attitude of USA ... They always left us in middle of battle ... they did it 90s at the time of pessler ammedment ... they did in 1971 at the time of Bagladesh ... They did it during war on terror ... So we can't keep on relying on them for long ...
@Penguin By the way, if you would have been decision maker what would have you chosen as an option ??? Given the limited budget of something around 1.5 billion USD ...
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