Success after NATO's Afghanistan exit largely depends on India

[karan.1970]

WTF are you smoking dude? Do you even know what you're talking about? US is viewed as occupiers and imperialists there. Do you know how Taliban was formed? Because they had high support. If they didnt have high support they wouldn't continue to rule 70% of Afghanistan and get recruits so easily. I dont know how many pashtuns you know or come across but for the most part they hate US with passion. Decent support for US means the whole survey is wrong and doens't reflect general Afghan opinion.

Furthermore, you totally discounted the fact that 72% of Afghanistan is under Taliban control and thus that territory would not be sufficiently included in the survey.

The smoke seems to be coming out of your body cavities my friend..

Lets look at this 70 or 72 percent claim. Lets say this is true. Even then it does not mean 72 percent of afghan population is living in these areas. These are remote sparcely populated areas with extremely low density of population. A single city of kabul itself contains 25% of the totla afghan population.

If I extend the same arguement to Pakistan, between Baluchistan, NWFP and FATA which are either under TTP controlled or are the areas like baluchistan that does not tie itself with mainstream pakistan, they covert more than 50% of Pakistan's land area. Does that make all surveys done by pakistan govt as fake??

 

[karan.1970]

Our discussing is moving totally in different direction, but lets straight up some facts. Pakistan and India both have dictatorship in the name of democracy. Bhutto family, Gandhi family, Nawaz family and Indians knows more influential families in India who been running the show for decades. Why every party election ends up electing same family. So, let not sing democracy song.....
If the public opinion is so strong why injustice and poverty. Every common man slogan is against injustice,poverty and wealth....

just a bunch of generic and anecdotal statements attempting to exaggerate other's problems to hide one's own. Doesnt deserve a response

 

[SMC]

Lets look at this 70 or 72 percent claim. Lets say this is true. Even then it does not mean 72 percent of afghan population is living in these areas. These are remote sparcely populated areas with extremely low density of population. A single city of kabul itself contains 25% of the totla afghan population.

Here's the thing. Outside Kabul there's very little control that NATO and US have. So you can perhaps count this as the opinion of 25-35% of people - which is still way off the 90-100% that you're looking for. What about Afghanis living in Pakistan? A more realistic US support figure would be around 10-15%. Even in Kabul, it is not clear who was surveyed. People from government? Because they would definitely back US and india. Northern Alliance? Same thing.

It is pretty obvious you're do not know Pashtuns very well. Otherwise you'd not be still going over this lost argument.

If I extend the same arguement to Pakistan, between Baluchistan, NWFP and FATA which are either under TTP controlled or are the areas like baluchistan that does not tie itself with mainstream pakistan, they covert more than 50% of Pakistan's land area. Does that make all surveys done by pakistan govt as fake??

Surveys do not always mean opinion polls...

 

[HAIDER]

Well, India protect its embassy is more then enough. Controlling law and order, Is not Indian field. Don't see any Indian role in establishing peace in Afghanistan. More they involve, more they call for trouble. Learn from Pakistan. But one problem for sure India will face, after NATO gone Pak army will unleash all element to expel or contained India in Afghanistan to control turmoil in Baluchistan.

 

[illuminatus]

^^ We can only come to one conclusion which is that the survey carried out isn't representative of the views of all Afghans. Having said that, this poll or survey cannot be taken seriously.

 

[SMC]

Well, India protect its embassy is more then enough. Controlling law and order, Is not Indian field. Don't see any Indian role in establishing peace in Afghanistan. More they involve, more they call for trouble. Learn from Pakistan. But one problem for sure India will face, after NATO gone Pak army will unleash all element to expel or contained India in Afghanistan to control turmoil in Baluchistan.

Not even that. When NATO is kicked out, india will go along with them.

 

[desiman]

^^ We can only come to one conclusion which is that the survey carried out isn't representative of the views of all Afghans. Having said that, this poll or survey cannot be taken seriously.

No survey in the world can express the views of each and every person. All survey use a sample and then generalize using that. Thats why there are margins of discrepancy in each survey. The survey you are talking about had quite an extensive sample base and tried to use a sample from each of ethnic communities that make up Afghanistan. Having said that this survey is actually quite right in many aspects, but again everyone will not have the same opinion.

 

[SMC]

The sample is biased. Clearly when the people living in Taliban controlled territory are not given their share, the survey will be heavily biased. The fact that US has 51% approval rate means the survey cannot be taken seriously.

 

[Peshwa]

Like I mentioned, the survey is not indicative of general afghan opinion. When will indians get that through their thick heads. The survey seems to be mostly done in Kabul. 70% of Afghanistan is in Taliban territory. So whatever people live there - that's them discounted. It's a biased survey, although not intentionally biased. If you took statistics classes, you'd know what I am talking about. The fact that 51% view US as favourable shows that the survey is biased - US is hated by passion by the pashtuns. The real US favourability rate would be 2-15%.

So let me pose a very simple question to you.....

How exactly do you infer that the majority of Afghans hate the US...especiially only 2-15%.....How did u come to that number....wait dont tell me....did you run what do they call it....A SURVEY???

Or are all the Afghans your clansmen that you know how "majority" of Afghans feel being a) Not an Afghan b) Not living in Afghanistan....LOL?

PS: Please teach me the brand of Statistics that you have been taught that will help me infer the "bias"...I dont want to be a "Thick headed Indian" anymore....

 

[Peshwa]

The sample is biased. Clearly when the people living in Taliban controlled territory are not given their share, the survey will be heavily biased. The fact that US has 51% approval rate means the survey cannot be taken seriously.

Im not sure if you havent been able to express your opinion properly in the above post but can you elaborate why a 51% favorable opinion of the US directly indicates a bias?

Something doesnt add up....at least to me....But I want to hear your thoughts....

 

[SMC]

That's a really poor argument. Pashtuns by nature are resistant to outside interference. You should know this from the history. Pashtuns make up majority of Afghans. Pointless to say, it should be obvious that US having a 51% approval rate across Afghanistan is simply impossible. Or anything near 51%. It is pretty obvious you do not know Pashtuns very well. Otherwise you wouldn't be making these naive and uninformed arguments which hold no water. Those running government in Afghanistan are Tajiks. They might support US or india.

US is viewed as invaders and occupiers. US is facing heavy resistant in Afghanistan and control only small parts of Afghanistan. If they were that much favoured then they would be in control of bigger portions of Afghanistan. Taliban easily recruit and had vast support when they came into being. Pointless to say, the support remains because they control 70% of Afghanistan.

And again like most of your indian friends, you didn't bold the part about 70% of Afghanistan territory not getting their share in the survey.

 

[SMC]

Also, by bias, it means unintentional bias. Those surveyed were most likely surveyed in Kabul for the most part and not uniformly across Afghanistan. This survey cannot be taken seriously.

 

[Peshwa]

That's a really poor argument. Pashtuns by nature are resistant to outside interference. You should know this from the history. Pashtuns make up majority of Afghans. Pointless to say, it should be obvious that US having a 51% approval rate across Afghanistan is simply impossible. Or anything near 51%. It is pretty obvious you do not know Pashtuns very well. Otherwise you wouldn't be making these naive and uninformed arguments which hold no water. Those running government in Afghanistan are Tajiks. They might support US or india.

US is viewed as invaders and occupiers. US is facing heavy resistant in Afghanistan and control only small parts of Afghanistan. If they were that much favoured then they would be in control of bigger portions of Afghanistan. Taliban easily recruit and had vast support when they came into being. Pointless to say, the support remains because they control 70% of Afghanistan.

And again like most of your indian friends, you didn't bold the part about 70% of Afghanistan territory not getting their share in the survey.

Your entire argument is based on the "assumption" that just because historically the Afghans were opposed to outsiders that they automatically have a negative opinion of the US??...No class in statistics teach you this my friend...this much I can guarantee you.....

Again in your second part, you are correlating the fact that just because the US is facing heavy resistance from Taliban....does not mean that the Afghans are against the US....
Simple Statistics will teach you that Correlation does NOT equal Causation....PERIOD!!!

From the above argument are you also claiming that
Afghans = Taliban?

About the bolded part:
So even if you claim that the survey was conducted in and around the Kabul area only then what it means is that the parts that are under occupation from the US garner a positive opinion....
But the parts that have not been surveyed cannot be "assumed" to have a negative perception of the US or positive view of the Taliban....they remain undecided until surveyed!!! Prove me wrong if you can!!!

Many of you people here seem to think that your proximity to Afghanistan or the fact that a few million Afghans reside in your country gives you the know all manual on Afghans and what they want in life plus their likes and dislikes......

Sorry my friend but your argument does not hold any water the way you position it here....Maybe word it differently...I dont know!!!

 

[SMC]

The assumption is correct. Afghans are resistant to interference, and this NATO occupation seems to be going the same way previous attempts at interference have gone. It's not just negative opinion of US, it's negative opinion of US for a reason.

Facing heavy resistance does mean Afghans are against US. Not necessarily all Afghans, but vast majority.

For the last part, just like many other countries, opinions across the country differ greatly on things. In Pakistan, Iran, US, etc, and also Afghanistan. Again, it's tajiks who run Afghan government - not pashtun. Pashtun are greatly against US occupation or for that matter any outside interference. And those parts that are unsurveyed are pashtun parts.

 

[Peshwa]

I think I have explained myself based on your comments.....

I dont see this going anywhere but in circles...so lets end it here...

Salaam