Strengthen Masula Radar station, State urges Centre

[Hindustani78]

Updated: May 21, 2015 05:58 IST
Strengthen Masula Radar station, State urges Centre - The Hindu

The State government has appealed the Ministry of Defence to strengthen the existing RADAR station at Machilipatnam with their radar technologies in line with the proposed strengthening of defence and coastal security establishments on the Machilipatnam coast.

Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu, in principle, had agreed to provide about 100 acres land near the Radar station here during his recent meeting with the Ministry of Defence authorities. The Machilipatnam Radar station (Doppler Max (z) technology), one of the 16 such stations in India, was installed in early 1980s and being operated by the Indian Meteorological Department for several weather and cyclone updates up to 250 km range, covering both surface and the sea range.

“The Defence Ministry has been explained the need of expansion of the operations of the Radar station. The State government is waiting for response from it. Meanwhile, nearly 100 acre of land is earmarked for the project in Machilipatnam,” said Excise and B.C. Welfare Minister K. Ravindra. The key defence project – Defence Research and Development Organisation’s Missile Test Launch Facility – that would be set up in Nagayalanka will have to rely on the existing Radar station for weather update and cyclone warnings.

The Defence Ministry’s Electronics and Radar Development Establishment (LRDE-Bangalore) was expected to play a key role in designing the technologies required for the expansion of the Radar station. The Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar, Multichannel digital receivers, automatic target classification are a few latest radar technologies developed by the LRDE and likely to be preferred for the Machilipatnam project once it is materialised.

The Defence Ministry has been explained the need of expansion of the operations of the Radar station. The State government is waiting for response from it. Meanwhile, nearly 100 acre of land is earmarked for the project in Machilipatnam

K. Ravindra

Excise and B.C. Welfare Minister

 

[Hindustani78]

Ministry of Power
23-June, 2017 18:05 IST
Shri Piyush Goyal launches POSOCO-IMD Weather Portal for Power Sector & Web Portal ‘MERIT’ (Merit Order Despatch of Electricity for Rejuvenation of Income and Transparency)

Shri Piyush Goyal Union Minister of State (IC) for Power, Coal , New & Renewable Energy and Mines launched Weather Portal for Power Sector in association with POSOCO and IMD at the meeting of the Forum of Regulators here today .

Day to day weather variations have an impact on load demand and energy production, transport and distribution management, as well as energy prices. Extreme events such as heat waves or cold waves, wind storms or floods can of course have dramatic consequences on the production means or the electrical grid of a country including physical damage to the infrastructure. The information available in the Portal regarding weather forecast shall help State Discoms to take pro-active steps regarding short term and medium term management processes and supply planning requirements and also for better planning for infrastructure availability to ensure cost effective and reliable supply.

The Portal provides the following information :

· Regional Weather Summary : This provides Weather Outlook for the Region for the current day and upto next 7 days. Weather stations of Meteorological department have been mapped to the nearest important Electrical Station/ Power Stations in each State.

o Nowcast: It is used to forecast weather for a short period ahead, updated every 3 hours

o Weather Forecast: It is provided for the current day and next 6 days

o Weather Warning: Special Nowcast warning is issued for the next 3 hours.

· Radar: The Doppler Weather Radar generates different displays and derived products of practical utility based on standard algorithms. These displays are updated every 10 minutes.

· Satellite Images: INSAT 3D is being used to monitor the Weather of Indian Origin. The image is updated every 30 minutes.

· Meteogram- The Meteogram at Web-Portal provides plots for Meteorological variables such as Rainfall, Cloud Cover, Temperature, Humidity, Wind, Speed, Sea Level Pressure, Indices for Thunderstorm etc. for 10 days with a resolution time of three hours. Each Meteogram provides information for the 10 km radius.

· Region Specific Forecast - Fog Forecast, Metar, Bay Bulletin, Coastal Area Bulletin, Cyclone, Port Warning etc.



During the meeting Shri Goyal launched another portal ‘MERIT’ (Merit Order Despatch of Electricity for Rejuvenation of Income and Transparency). This has been developed by Ministry of Power in association with POSOCO and Central Electricity Authority. The MERIT Web portal displays extensive array of information regarding the merit order of Electricity procured by State(s) such as daily state-wise marginal variable costs of all generators, daily source-wise power purchases of respective states/UTs with source-wise fixed and variable costs, energy volumes and purchase prices. The web-portal also give information regarding reasons for deviation from merit order such as must run conditions, transmission constraints etc. The Web Portal can be accessed at “http://vidyutmode.in/”

Information available in the Portal shall help State Discoms to optimize their power procurement in more efficient way leading to lower cost of power to consumers. It will facilitate must run status for hydro and renewables and will promote use of green and clean power more transparently. It will also promote competition for lower costs as information will be available to all Stakeholders including generators and utilities for more efficient procurement. Since the information will be available to all consumers on continuous basis it will create pressure on utilities for continued efficiency.

The advantages of “Merit” Portal are as follows:

Ø Empowerment of the Consumer and participative governance

Ø Transparent information dissemination pertaining to marginal variable cost and source wise purchase of electricity

Ø Promotes economy and efficiency in operations

Ø Demystifies the utility portfolio and its complexity

Ø Optimization of the power procurement costs

Ø Facilitates renewable integration and handling of the variability and uncertainty of renewables

Ø Indication of supply side reliability, adequacy, and cost of power procurement



At the meeting, Shri Goyal also released FOLD-POSOCO Report on Operational Analysis for Optimization of Hydro Resources & facilitating Renewable Integration in India .The report also elaborates on the operational constraints being faced by the hydro stations.


The report concludes that there is scope for additional peaking support of 3000-5000 MW with equivalent amount of backing down in off-peak hours from the existing hydro power stations. The gain from the optimized despatch on annual basis is estimated to be 5 paisa per unit which is equivalent to earning of the order of Rs. 600 crore per year at all India level.

 

[Sliver]

one of the few non-BJP CMs who actually think about Defense, Development and education instead of appeasement and vote bank politics.

 

[kadamba-warrior]

one of the few non-BJP CMs who actually think about Defense, Development and education instead of appeasement and vote bank politics.

Didn't know you followed Indian politics this closely.

 

[Hindustani78]

Ministry of Earth Science
10-October, 2017 11:38 IST
Cyclone Warning - Depression over Gangetic West Bengal

Latest observations, Doppler Weather Radar Kolkata and Satellite imageries indicate that the deep depression over Gangetic West Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of about 12 kmph in past 06 hours. It lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 10th October, 2017 over Gangetic West Bengal near Latitude 23.2º N and Longitude 87.1 ºE, close to Bankura(Gangetic West Bengal).

The system is very likely to continue to move west-northwestwards and weaken into a depression during next 06 hours & into a well marked low pressure area during subsequent 24 hours.

Warning:

(i). Heavy Rainfall warning:

• Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal & Jharkhand during next 24 hours.
• Rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Bihar during next 48 hours.

(ii). Wind warning:

• Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph would prevail over Gangetic West Bengal and 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph very likely over adjoining areas of Jharkhand during next 12 hours and gradually decrease thereafter.

 

[Hindustani78]

Ministry of Earth Science
01-April, 2018 16:04 IST
Seasonal Outlook for the Temperatures during the Hot Weather Season (April to June), 2018

Highlights

• Upcoming Hot Weather Season (April to June-AMJ) is expected to have the above normal sub-divisional average seasonal temperatures (maximum, minimum and mean) over most of the meteorological sub-divisions of the country except the subdivisions of eastern, east central and southern parts for the country that are likely to experience slightly below normal seasonal temperatures.

• The AMJ seasonal average temperatures in most of the subdivisions are likely to be cooler than that of last year.

• Normal Heat wave (HW) conditions are likely over core heat wave zone of the country.

1. Background

India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues operational seasonal forecast outlooks for subdivision scale temperatures over the country for both hot and cold weather seasons. These outlooks are generated based on predictions from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) Model and implemented by the office of Climate Research and Services (CRS), IMD, Pune. This year IMD had issued temperature outlook for the pre-monsoon season of March to May (MAM) on 28th February, 2018 in which it was forecasted that warmer than normal temperatures are likely during the MAM season in all meteorological sub-divisions (except Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim) of the country. Now the seasonal temperature outlook for the 2018 hot weather season of April-June (AMJ) is presented now.

1. Forecast for the 2018 Season (April-June) Temperatures

Fig.1, Fig.2 & Fig.3 depict the forecasted distribution of the sub-divisional average maximum, minimum and mean temperature anomalies respectively over India for AMJ 2018. It suggests that warmer than normal temperatures are expected to prevail in most of the subdivisions with maximum anomalies in subdivisions from northwest India and north India. However, normal to slightly below normal maximum temperatures are likely to prevail over subdivisions of eastern, east central and southern parts of the country. Overall, the seasonal (AMJ) temperature anomalies are likely to be colder than those observed during the corresponding season of 2017.

The seasonal average maximum temperatures (Fig.1) are likely to be warmer than normal by ≥1 °C in Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi (HCD) and Himachal Pradesh. They are likely to be between 0.5°C & 1°C in Uttarakhand, west Uttar Pradesh and east and west Rajasthan. Remaining subdivisions are likely to experience near normal (between 0.5°C & -0.5°C) maximum temperature anomalies.

The season averaged minimum temperatures (Fig. 2) are likely to be warmer than normal by ≥1 °C in Punjab, HCD, west Uttar Pradesh and east and west Rajasthan. They are likely to be between 0.5°C & 1°C in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, east and west Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra, Saurashtra and Gujarat. Rest of the subdivisions are likely to experience minimum temperature anomalies of <0.5°C.

The season averaged mean temperatures (Fig.3) are likely to be warmer than normal by ≥1°C in Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, HCD , west Uttar Pradesh and east and west Rajasthan. They are likely to be between 0.5°C & 1°C in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, east Uttar Pradesh, west and east Madhya Pradesh. Rest of the subdivisions are likely to experience mean temperature anomalies of <0.5°C.

The grid point maximum temperatures in the core HW zone during April to June 2018 show nearly equal probabilities for all the three categories; below normal, normal and above normal (Fig.4).This in turn suggests that the normal heat wave conditions are likely to prevail in the core HW zone during the season. The core HW zone covers states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Telangana and meteorological subdivisions of Marathawada, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

1. The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS)

The research version of the MMCFS was developed by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune in 2012 and has been used to prepare seasonal forecasts since then. The latest version of the MMCFS has a spatial resolution of about 38 km and improved modules of model physics. The seasonal temperature forecast outlook for the April to June 2018 is prepared based on the March 2018 initial conditions using 41ensemble member forecasts.

1. ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean

The current sea surface temperature conditions prevailing over equatorial Pacific suggest prevalence of La Niña conditions. However, the atmospheric conditions are not suggestive of La Niña conditions. The latest forecast from MMCFS indicates that La Niña conditions are likely to continue at least during the forecast period. However, forecasts from some of the global climate centres indicate weakening of La Nina conditions from the spring season onwards.

1. Extended Range Forecast Services

IMD also provides extended range forecasts (7 –day averaged forecasts for the next four weeks) of maximum and minimum temperatures over the country updated every week. This is based on the Multi-model ensemble dynamical Extended Range Forecasting System currently operational at IMD, New Delhi. The forecasts are available through IMD, Delhi website (www.imd.gov.in).

1. Short to Medium Range Forecast Outlooks/Updates

In addition to the above, IMD maintains round the clock watch of the temperature scenario and issues heat wave warnings as and when required at meteorological sub-divisions level valid for next 5-days through National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC), Delhi and at district level through Regional Meteorological Centers and Meteorological Centers at states along with daily updates.

Fig.1. Maximum Temperature Anomaly forecast for April to June2018.

Fig.2. Minimum Temperature Anomaly forecast for April to June2018.

Fig.3. Mean Temperature Anomaly forecast for April to June2018.

Fig.4.Climatological probability distribution of grid point maximum temperatures during April to June 2018 over Core Heat wave Zone (CHZ) is shown along with forecast probability distribution of the same for April to June 2018.



***

 

[Hindustani78]

Ministry of Earth Science
16-April, 2018 17:30 IST
Long Range Forecast For 2018 Southwest Monsoon Seasonal (June-September) Rainfall

Summary of the Forecast for the 2018 southwest monsoon Rainfall

1. Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

1. Forecast also suggests maximum probability for normal monsoon rainfall (96-104% of LPA) and low probability for deficient rainfall during the season.

IMD will issue the update in early June, 2018 as a part of the second stage forecast. Along with the updated forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued.

1. Background

India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues operational forecast for the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June. These forecasts are prepared using state-of-the-art Statistical Ensemble Forecasting system (SEFS) that is critically reviewed and improved regularly through in-house research activities. Since 2012, IMD is also using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model developed under the Monsoon Mission to generate forecasts. For this purpose, the latest version of the high resolution (horizontal resolution of approximately 38km (T382) Monsoon Mission CFS (MMCFS) was implemented in January 2017 at the Office of Climate Research and Services, IMD, Pune.



IMD’s SEFS model for the April forecast uses the following 5 predictors that require data upto March.



S. No

Predictor

Period









1

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Gradient

December + January


between North Atlantic and North Pacific






2

Equatorial South Indian Ocean SST

February









3

East Asia Mean Sea Level Pressure

February + March









4

Northwest Europe Land Surface Air Temperature

January









5

Equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume

February + March

1. Forecast for the 2018 Southwest monsoon Season (June–September) rainfall over the Country as a whole

2a. Forecast based on the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS)



For generating the forecast for the 2018 southwest Monsoon season rainfall, atmospheric and Oceanic initial conditions of April 2018 were used. The forecast was computed as the average of the ensemble member forecasts.



The forecast based on the MMCFS suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2018 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 99% ± 5% of the Long Period Average (LPA).



2b. Forecast Based on the Operational Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS)

• Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%.

• The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below:

Category

Rainfall Range

Forecast

Climatological


(% of LPA)

Probability (%)

Probability (%)




Deficient

< 90

14

16


Below Normal

90 - 96

30

17


Normal

96 -104

42

33


Above Normal

104 -110

12

16


Excess

> 110

02

17




Forecast suggests maximum probability for normal rainfall and a low probability for deficient rainfall during the season.

1. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Conditions in the equatorial Pacific & Indian Oceans

The moderate La Nina conditions developed in the equatorial Pacific during last year started weakening in the early part of this year and currently have turned to weak La Nina conditions. The latest forecasts from MMCFS & other global models indicate conditions over the Pacific to turn to neutral ENSO conditions before the beginning of the monsoon season.



At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecasts from the MMCFS and global models indicate weak negative IOD conditions may develop during the middle of the monsoon season.



As the extreme sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans particularly ENSO conditions over the Pacific (El Nino or La Nina) are known to have strong influence on the Indian summer monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the sea surface conditions over the Pacific and Indian oceans.



***

 

[Hindustani78]

Ministry of Earth Science
30-April, 2018 15:59 IST
Severe thunderstorm activity over east & northeast India during next 3-4 days

Synoptic conditions:

• A cyclonic circulation lies over east Bihar and adjoining West Bengal & Jharkhand and a trough runs from this cyclonic circulation to Manipur across Meghalaya in lower levels.
• An east-west trough runs from Punjab to southeast Madhya Pradesh across Haryana & west Madhya Pradesh in lower levels.
• Core of sub-tropical westerly jet runs between latitudes 23 & 27ﾟN over Indian region.

Weather Forecast:

• Under the influence of above systems, scattered to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity very likely over east and northeast India during next 3-4 days.

Thunderstorm and heavy rainfall warnings:

30 April:

• Thunderstorm accompanied with squall/hail very likely at isolated places over West Bengal & Sikkim
• Thunderstorm accompanied with squall very likely at isolated places over Bihar and Thunderstorm with gusty winds at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Odisha & Jharkhand.
• • Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya and Mizoram & Tripura and West Bengal & Sikkim.

1. May:
   • Thunderstorm accompanied with squall/hail very likely at isolated places over West Bengal & Sikkim, Mizoram, Tripura & Jharkhand.

• Thunderstorm accompanied with squall very likely at isolated places over Bihar & Odisha and Thunderstorm with gusty winds at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur,
• Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Mizoram & Tripura, West Bengal & Sikkim and Odisha.

02 May:

• Thunderstorm accompanied with squall likely at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal & Odisha and Thunderstorm with gusty winds at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Jhjarkhand.
• Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya and Odisha,

03 May:

• Thunderstorm accompanied with squall likely at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha.

***

 

[Hindustani78]

The Chief Minister of Jharkhand, Shri Raghubar Das meeting the Union Minister for Science & Technology, Earth Sciences and Environment, Forest & Climate Change, Dr. Harsh Vardhan, in New Delhi on May 02, 2018.

The Chief Minister of Jharkhand, Shri Raghubar Das meeting the Union Minister for Science & Technology, Earth Sciences and Environment, Forest & Climate Change, Dr. Harsh Vardhan, in New Delhi on May 02, 2018.

 

[Hindustani78]

Ministry of Earth Science
08-May, 2018 12:05 IST
Ongoing severe weather activity over the country and warnings for next 5 days

Realised Weather during past 24 Hours ending of 0830 IST of Today (08 May 2018)

• Under the influence of the Western Disturbance over Jammu & Kashmir & neighbourhood and a cyclonic circulation over Haryana & neighbourhood, following weather has been reported during past 24 hrs.

• Light to moderate Rainfall occurred at many places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh Uttarakhand and West Rajasthan and at isolated places over Punjab, Haryana and east Rajasthan.

• Thunderstorm occurred at a few places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and West Rajasthan.

• Duststrom occurred at a few places over East Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and adjoining Uttar Pradesh.

Following maximum wind has been recorded during past 24 hours:

Station

Wind speed (Kmph)

Time

Chandigarh

62

0840 PM

Amritsar

56

1014 PM

Delhi (Safdarjung)

64

1103 to 1106 PM

Delhi (Palam)

50

1103 to 1106 PM

Aligarh

50

0130 AM

Moradabad

55

0200 to 0215 AM

• Current Weather system and its forecast

• The western disturbance currently located over Jammu & Kashmir is very likely to move eastwards during next 24 hrs and become unimportant.

• A cyclonic circulation in lower levels lies over Haryana and neighbourhood. It would move

eastwards towards West Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hrs and become less marked thereafter.

• A north-south trough runs along longitude 880E to the north of 240N. It is very likely to move slowly eastwards during next 3 days.

• A fresh western disturbance very likely to affect western Himalayan region from 13th May onwards.

• An easterly wave with an embedded lower level cyclonic circulation is very likely to affect states of Southern Peninsula during next one week.

• Under the influence of above two systems, widespread thunderstorm activity very likely simultaneously over northwest, central, east, northeast and peninsular India from 13th onwards.

• Weather Forecast

• Rain/thundershowers very likely at most places over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand; many places over West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi; at a few places over north Rajasthan and East Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hrs and significant decrease thereafter.

• Rainfall/thunderstorm very likely at many places over northeastern states and parts of West

Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha and Jharkhand during next 4-5 days.

• • Light to moderate rainfall at a few places very likely over extreme south peninsula (Kerala, South Interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Puducherry) during next 5 days. The rainfall activity very likely to extend to north Peninsula, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana from 11th onwards.

• Weather warnings for next 5 days:

Warning valid for 8 May 2018:

• Thunderstorm accompanied with squall (wind speed reaching 50-70 kmph) and hail very likely at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

• Thunderstorm accompanied with squall (wind speed reaching 50-70 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim.

• Thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds very likely at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Bihar, West Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Coastal & South Interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu and Kerala.

• Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Tamilnadu, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala.

• Hot weather condition likely over Maharashtra with heat wave conditions at one or two pockets over Vidarbha.

Warning valid for 9 May 2018:

• Thunderstorm accompanied with squall (wind speed reaching 50-70 kmph) and hail very likely at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim.

• Thunderstorm accompanied with squall (wind speed reaching 50-70 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura.

• Thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds very likely at isolated places over South Interior Karnataka.

• Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over south Interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu and Kerala and Assam & Meghalaya.

• Hot weather condition likely over Maharashtra with heat wave conditions at one or two pockets over Vidarbha.

Warning valid for 10 May 2018:

• Thunderstorm accompanied with squall (wind speed reaching 50-70 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal.

• Hot weather condition likely over Rajasthan and Maharashtra with heat wave conditions at one or two pockets over Vidarbha and Rajasthan.

• Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over south Interior Karnataka and Tamilnadu.

Warning valid for 11 May 2018:

• Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over South Interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu, north Andhra Pradesh.

• Hot weather condition likely over Rajasthan and Maharashtra with heat wave conditions at one or two pockets over Vidarbha and Rajasthan.

Warning valid for 12 May 2018:

• Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over South Interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu, north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha.

• Hot weather condition likely over Rajasthan and Maharashtra with heat wave conditions at one or two pockets over Vidarbha and Rajasthan.

***

 

[Hindustani78]

Ministry of Earth Science
14-May, 2018 14:41 IST
Thunderstorm activity observed over northwest India during past 24 hours and Forecast for next 2 days

Realised Weather during past 24 hrs ending of 0830 IST of Today (14 May 2018)

• • Rain/thundershowers accompanied with gusty / squally wind occurred at most places over Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura; at many places over Himachal Pradesh, Coastal & South Interior Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and Kerala; at a few places Jammu & Kashmir, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, East Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, North Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema and at isolated places over Punjab, West Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Madhya Maharashtra, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

Following maximum wind has been recorded during past 24 hours:
Station Wind speed (Kmph) Time
Delhi (Safdarjung)

107

1644-1646 hrs

Delhi (Palam)

96

1633-1634 hrs

• Current Weather systems and its forecast

• • The Western Disturbance as a trough lies over Pakistan & adjoining Afghanistan in middle tropospheric levels. It is likely to move eastwards during next 48 hours.
  • A cyclonic circulation lies over central Pakistan and adjoining northwest Rajasthan and Punjab in lower levels. It is likely to weaken after 24 hours.
  • The north-south trough runs from the above cyclonic circulation to north Madhya Maharashtra across southeast Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh at lower levels. It is likely to weaken gradually during next 48 hours.
  • A cyclonic circulation lies over northern parts of West Bengal & neighbourhood in lower levels. It is likely to persist over the same region during next 24 hours and weaken thereafter gradually.
  • The north-south trough runs along Long. 88°E to the north of 24°N at 3.1 km above mean sea level. It is likely to move eastwards gradually.
  • There is a north-south wind discontinuity from Rayalaseema to south Tamilnadu in lower levels.

• Weather Forecast

• Rain/thundershowers very likely at most places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Bengal & Sikkim; at many places over Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Kerala, South Interior Karnataka and at isolated to a few places over rest of the country outside Rajasthan, Gujarat, north Konkan and north Madhya Maharashtra where weather likely to be dry during next 2-3 days.

• Weather warnings for next 2 days (14-15 May 2018):

• • Thunderstorm accompanied with squall and hail (wind speed reaching 50-70 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and squall at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha.
  • Thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds (wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu & Puducherry.
  • Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Kerala, South Interior Karnataka, interior Tamilnadu and Assam & Meghalaya.
  • Duststorm very likely at isolated places over Rajasthan.

The verification of thunderstorm warning issued on 13th May 2018 based on realized weather during past 24 hours ending at 0830 hrs. IST of 14th May is given in the enclosed table.


S.No.

Sub-Division

Forecast

warnings

Realized weather (highest rain in cm)

recorded at 0830 hrs of 14 May 2018

1

ANDAMAN & NICO. ISLANDS





2

ARUNACHAL PRADESH





3

ASSAM & MEGHALAYA

TS+ GW

TS+ GW

4

NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA

TS+ GW

TS+GW (Kohima & Kailashahar-1)

5

SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM





6

GANGETIC WEST BENGAL

TS+ GW

TS+GW (Canning-6)

7

ODISHA

TS + Squall

TS+GW (Chandbali-6)

8

JHARKHAND

TS+ GW

TS+GW (Daltonganj-2)

9

BIHAR





10

EAST UTTAR PRADESH

TS+ GW

TS+Squall (Gorakhpur-3)

11

WEST UTTAR PRADESH

TS+ GW

TS+Squall (Bareilly-2)

12

UTTARAKHAND

TS + Squall

TS+Squall

13

HARYANA CHD. & DELHI

TS+ GW

TS + GW+Squall (Ambala-2)

14

PUNJAB

TS+ GW

TS+GW (Patiala-1)

15

HIMACHAL PRADESH

TS + Squall

TS+GW (Solan-3)

16

JAMMU & KASHMIR

TS+ GW

TS+GW

17

WEST RAJASTHAN

DS

DS

18

EAST RAJASTHAN

DS

DS

19

WEST MADHYA PRADESH

TS+ GW

TS+GW

20

EAST MADHYA PRADESH

TS+ GW

TS+GW

21

GUJARAT REGION D.D. &

N.H.





22

SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU





23

KONKAN & GOA





24

MADHYA MAHARASHTRA





25

MARATHAWADA





26

VIDARBHA

TS+ GW



27

CHHATTISGARH

TS+ GW

TS+GW

28

COASTAL ANDHRA

PRADESH

TS+ GW

TS+GW

29

TELANGANA

TS+ GW

TS

30

RAYALASEEMA

TS+ GW

TS+GW

31

TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY

TS+ GW+HR

TS+GW (Kakinada-3)

32

COASTAL KARNATAKA



TS+GW (Mangalore-5)

33

NORTH INT.KARNATAKA



TS+GW (Belgaum-5)

34

SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA

TS+ GW

TS+GW

35

KERALA

TS+ GW+HR

TS+GW (Thiruvananathapuram-6)

36

LAKSHADWEEP





Legends: TS=Thunderstorm; GW=Gusty winds and HR= Heavy Rain



***

 

[Hindustani78]

The Union Home Secretary, Shri Rajiv Gauba addressing the Annual Conference of States/UTs Relief Commissioners / Secretaries (Disaster Management) to review the Status of Preparedness for South West Monsoon-2018, in New Delhi on May 18, 2018. The Additional Secretary (DM), MHA, Ms. Rajni Sekhri Sibal, the Member (Secretary), NDMA, Shri R.K. Jain and the DG, NDRF, Shri Sanjay Kumar are also seen.

 

[Hindustani78]

Ministry of Earth Science
18-May, 2018 17:38 IST
Forecast of the Onset Date of Southwest Monsoon - 2018 over Kerala




1. Background


Southwest monsoon sets over Kerala on 1st June with a standard deviation of about 7 days. The event marks the start of the rainy season over the region and as the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards. An indigenously developed state of the art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days is used for this purpose. The 6 Predictors used in the models are: i) Minimum Temperatures over North-west India, ii) Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula, iii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over south China Sea, (iv) Lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian ocean, (v) upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean, and (vi) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over the south-west Pacific region.

IMD’s operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset during the past 13 years (2005- 2017) were proved to be correct except in 2015. Forecast verification for the recent 5 years (2013-2017) is given in the table below.



Year

Actual Onset Date

Forecast Onset Date

2013

1st June

3rd June

2014

6th June

5th June

2015

5th June

30th May

2016

8th June

7th June

2017

30th May

30th May

2. Advance of monsoon over the Andaman Sea


The southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea normally around 20th May with a standard deviation of about one week. Conditions are likely to become favorable for the advance of southwest monsoon into some parts of Andaman Sea and southeast Bay of Bengal around 23rd May 2018. Past data suggest that there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country.



3. Forecast for the 2018 Monsoon Onset over Kerala


The southwest monsoon is expected to set in over Kerala on 29th May 2018 with a model error of ± 4 days.



***

 

[Hindustani78]

Ministry of Earth Science
01-June, 2018 16:27 IST
MoES Commissions High Resolution Ensemble Prediction Systems for Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has commissioned two very high resolution (12 km grid scale) state-of-the-art global Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) for generating operational 10-days probabilistic forecasts of weather. The EPS involves the generation of multiple forecasts using slightly varying initial conditions.

This critical service level augmentation became possible due to the consistent efforts made by the scientists at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida and India Meteorological Department (IMD). The frameworks of the new EPSs are among the best weather prediction systems in the world at present. Very few forecasting centres in the world use this high resolution for short-medium range probabilistic weather forecasts.

The EPS will enhance the weather information being provided by the current models by quantifying the uncertainties in the weather forecasts and generate probabilistic forecasts.

The probabilistic forecasts of severe weather events at 12 km grid scale across India will greatly help the disaster management authorities and other users in making better emergency response decisions by explicitly accounting for the uncertainty in weather forecasts.

The probabilistic forecasts will also be very useful for various sectors of the economy including agriculture, water resources, tourism and renewable energy.

The forecast products from these two prediction systems are available at the following links (http://nwp.imd.gov.in/gefspro.php) and (http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/product_main.php). IMD will work further to bring out more useful service level products using these prediction systems.


The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) provides Weather and Climate Services to various users round the year and on 24/7 basis. Both operational and research aspects for these services are implemented through its constituent units like IMD, NCMRWF, IITM and Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS).

Over the past few years, the quality of weather and climate services provided by this Ministry has improved significantly due to systematic efforts in augmenting atmospheric and ocean observing systems in the region, improving the high performance computational capability to 8.0 petaflops, implementing high-resolution global models and advanced data assimilation techniques for ingesting data from Indian and International satellites, conducting cutting edge research and investing in human resources development. The successes in predicting the Tropical Cyclones Phailin/Hudhud, heavy rainfall events and heat waves are the best examples of the improvement in prediction capability during the recent years.

MoES is also working to implement more effective mechanism for dissemination of weather and climate forecasts to different stake holders using different communication channels. MoES is committed to transform India into a “Weather Ready” Nation.



***

The Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Dr. M. Rajeevan along with the Director General of Meteorology, IMD, Dr. K.J. Ramesh briefing the media on “New Ensemble Prediction System for Severe Weather Intensity Forecast”, in New Delhi on June 01, 2018.

 

[Hindustani78]

http://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...ricts-of-up/article24073193.ece?homepage=true

The weather office has also forecast “very likely” rain in certain parts of the State.
Thunderstorm and dust storm accompanied with gusty winds are “very likely” at isolated places in 13 districts of Uttar Pradesh over the next two days, the MeT department warned on Sunday.

According to the meteorological department, the districts that might be hit by thunderstorm or dust storm are Banda, Chitrakoot, Fatehpur, Hardoi, Shahjahanpur, Pilibhit, Bareilly, Rampur, Moradabad, Meerut, Bijnore, Muzaffarnagar and Saharanpur.

The weather office has also forecast “very likely” rain in certain parts of the State.

The latest bout of deadly dust storm over the weekend claimed 17 lives and left 11 persons injured.

Most of the deaths were caused due to falling of trees and house collapse, a U.P. government spokesperson said.

Moradabad bore the maximum brunt of the storm, with as many as seven deaths reported from the district, followed by three deaths from Sambhal.

Two deaths each were reported from Badaun, Muzaffarnagar and Meerut, while one death was reported from Amroha.

Five persons were injured in Amroha, three in Moradabad, two in Muzaffarnagar and one in Badaun.

The State government directed all district magistrates to distribute relief within 24 hours.

Dust storms have become a regular phenomenon in the State that left over 130 people dead last month.

On May 13, 39 people died in various districts including Bareilly, Barabanki, Bulandshahr and Lakhimpur Khiri districts.

On May 9, a severe storm left 18 dead and 27 others injured. Five people died in Etawah district, three each in Mathura, Aligarh and Agra, two in Firozabad and one each in Hathras and Kanpur Dehat.

Thunderstorms and lightning on May 2-3 left 80 dead in the State, most of them in Agra district in the western part of the State.