Six Arab states join rush to go nuclear

[KashifAsrar]

i am living in Arab society past several years. Education is definitely on the rise here. But the problem is sever lack of political movement any where in the arab world. Getting nuclear technology is also limited due to non-availability of political will. Untill puppet regimes are working in gulf, thier masters would not let them go nuclear. That's for sure. Yes these regimes have the option of leasing the nuclear devices for thier defence, as per under NPT. But these nukes must be kept under the supervision and control of the supplying country (e.g. Pakistan) as per the NPT terms. that's the only option they have now.
Kashif

 

[PakSniper]

where are u in ME KashifAsrar

 

[Neo]

Monday, November 06, 2006

EDITORIAL: Dangerous nuclear signs

According to reports, at least six Arab countries are developing domestic nuclear power programmes to diversify their energy sources. Out of them, four, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco and Algeria have shown interest in developing nuclear power primarily for water desalination. Since they are Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) members, the IAEA is bound by its charter to help them acquire nuclear technology, but under strict safeguards. The plans of these four for nuclear power plants are at a tertiary stage while those of the two other Arab states, the UAE and Tunisia, are at an infant stage.

The ‘nuclear option’ on power production has come to the fore again after the petroleum price hikes of the last few years. Many states in Europe without traditional means of producing energy are thinking of going back to nuclear technology. But because the Arabs have suddenly become interested in nuclear power stations — and some of them are big oil producers and therefore really don’t need to go nuclear — some analysts are wondering if the Arab move is in response to the Iranian plan to become a nuclear power in the region.

Iran is a signatory to the NPT but is defying the IAEA and the UN Security Council to enrich uranium without satisfying the IAEA safeguards-conditions for power production only. Iran says it has the right to develop its nuclear power resource under the NPT and is flouting the IAEA. Therefore the Arabs are bound to take the same stand. If someone says they didn’t need it because of their oil resource, their answer will be: Iran too has oil but has nonetheless opted for nuclear electricity.

Among these countries, Egypt is the most advanced in its efforts to move in the direction of nuclear energy. Before it began fearing the Iranian nuclear ‘option’ it was faced with Libya’s intention to get nuclear capacity through Pakistan. Indeed, that is how the world got to know that Pakistan’s AQ Khan had actually sold old centrifuges to Libya. Therefore Egypt has ordered studies into building atomic power stations following a call by its president, Hosni Mubarak, in September for a national dialogue on the subject. Algeria’s plans are the next most advanced after Egypt’s.

Nuclear weapons unleash the imagination as no other weapon. Therefore we are within our rights to ask whether the region is about to go under a Pax Iranica as Iran moves inexorably towards acquiring nuclear weapons capacity in the face of opposition from the most powerful nations of the world? The Arabs have reconciled to Israel having an unannounced nuclear weapon outside the NPT. Now they have to take account of the nuclear power status of Iran across the Gulf. At least Saudi Arabia and the UAE are under direct threat and are not consoled by the fact that Iran’s bomb will also challenge the Israeli bomb.

The truth is that Iran’s bomb will not threaten Israel. What it will do is create a mutual deterrence with Israel by pushing the two states back from conventional war and from changing the status quo. But the Iranian bomb will surely make the Arabs across the Gulf vulnerable to Iran’s dominance. Already the region is destabilised because of the revival of the Shia-Sunni divide by the American invasion of Iraq. If Iran can remain an NPT signatory and move towards the acquisition of the bomb, why can’t the Arabs across the Gulf do the same?

The bomb has a way of being very protean. First the Pakistani bomb was supposed to be the Islamic bomb aimed at protecting the entire Islamic world from harm; but it soon turned out to be a Sunni bomb. Iran then set itself on course to acquire the Shia bomb and may be only four or five years away from actually acquiring it and putting it on top of a delivery system. Therefore we might be on the brink of initiating an Arab bomb after the recent debacle of North Korea, a once-member of the NPT who has declared itself a nuclear weapons power.

Nuclear power stations produce plutonium, and if countries can’t get an enrichment plant, then they have to wait patiently till they have the plutonium needed to make their first bomb, provided the IAEA loses its moral and political strength because of the sheer injustice of the world nuclear order. (Isn’t this order visibly falling to pieces these days?) After that the non-oil-producing states will have the possibility of making money by selling the lethal technology for which Pakistan is already a dubious model.

Currently, around 440 nuclear power stations provide approximately 5 percent of the global primary energy mix. If more NPT members opt for nuclear stations these stations will proliferate and so will the nuclear waste they produce. Nuclear waste is produced at every stage of the nuclear fuel cycle, from uranium mining to the reprocessing of spent nuclear. Much of this waste will remain hazardous for thousands of years, leaving a deadly radioactive legacy to future generations. The total waste produced at this stage is 145,000 tons which is expected to go up to 322,000 tons by 2010. But if new producers come on line this waste will increase beyond the global capacity to bury it safely. That is a chilling thought.

The nuclear deterrence established between the East and West during the Cold War was a one-off phenomenon. The Chinese were able to join it without destabilising the world strategic balance. But when India and Pakistan came on line with their bombs they were unable to fashion their nuclear doctrines because they didn’t know what kind of verifiable deterrence they could set up because they were physically contiguous. In 1999, the two defied all nuclear jurisprudence to nearly go to war while the bombs were nursed by both as an option. So their behaviour was the first manifestation of a weakening of the NPT.

Under the circumstances, the latest development is not a case of NPT members exercising their right under the treaty to acquire nuclear energy. It is actually a sign of the beginning of the final collapse of the NPT regime. *

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006\11\06\story_6-11-2006_pg3_1

 

[Awesome]

i am living in Arab society past several years. Education is definitely on the rise here. But the problem is sever lack of political movement any where in the arab world. Getting nuclear technology is also limited due to non-availability of political will. Untill puppet regimes are working in gulf, thier masters would not let them go nuclear. That's for sure. Yes these regimes have the option of leasing the nuclear devices for thier defence, as per under NPT. But these nukes must be kept under the supervision and control of the supplying country (e.g. Pakistan) as per the NPT terms. that's the only option they have now.
Kashif

I'd prefer if Pakistan doesn't supply them with Nuclear weapons. But should not oppose them while they pursue it. Supplying nuclear tech would be bad for our image.

 

[KashifAsrar]

I am in Saudi Arabia, dear.

 

[KashifAsrar]

I'd prefer if Pakistan doesn't supply them with Nuclear weapons. But should not oppose them while they pursue it. Supplying nuclear tech would be bad for our image.

They need a vast force of scientists and engineers. It is next to impossible in atleast next 10-15 years. they can go for ready-made nukes ONLY.
By the way if Pakistan makes good money with leased nukes and also improves its clout among the gulf countries, then what is wrong in leasing them the nuke tipped missile. After-all they will be in strict control of Pakistan.
Kashif

 

[ali ahmad]

arabs can go nuclear for peace purposes....may be attomic reactors from china..,or france under iaea safeguards....

 

[Awesome]

Nuclear maturity.

When Pakistan started pursuing nuclear weapons, I don't think we were mature enough to actually have the bomb. The troubles we went through to make one actually evolved us. Despite some heavy fighting even after May 1998, we've not gone nuclear on India.

10-15 years is way too much. I'd say once they get the peaceful nuclear tech up n running It'd be 5 years. Assuming they pursue making a weapon, they can probably get the designs off the black market circulating since the downfall of the Soviet Union.

 

[KashifAsrar]

You mean to say that Pakistan's nuclear policy is still immature?
Kashif

 

[ali ahmad]

arab countries can get the nuclear reactors for the peace purposes.....but will america or europeon countries allow them to do this..?? as tthey are doing with iran....??........can china help them in this regard..??

 

[niaz]

arab countries can get the nuclear reactors for the peace purposes.....but will america or europeon countries allow them to do this..?? as tthey are doing with iran....??........can china help them in this regard..??

Why cant people understand that there is no such thing as "For peaceful purposes". Every country including India and Pakistan started their programme with the same rhetoric. How do you think all the countries acquired their Atomic bomb. First step is to acquire nuclear technology which is done thru a neclear reactor. US did it in 1940 when Enrico Fermi built first nucleasr reactor in the world. India had their reactor at Trombay and Pakistan had KANUPP and also the research reactor at PINSTECH.

Once you have gained sufficient experience and have accumulated technical expertise, making an atomic bomb is only a matter of time. This the only route to going nuclear and every one with any understanding of the Atomic Energy knows it.

Whether every sovreign country has a right to pursue what is in her best national interest is another matter altogether and in an ideal world; YES.