Singapore’s demographic lesson for China

[tranquilium]

I understand that it is a difference as in, it will make a lot of effect in determining the timing of the demographic cataclysm. But both do predict a big demographic problem.

2.1 is the replacement ratio for highly developed countries. Normally, the replacement ratio is 2.1-2.3 depending on the country's situation.

I never denied there aren't tools to play with. What I am concerned is the thinking. There seem to be vested interests in the Family Planning department etc. that are stalling things. Just some time back there was news, that Beijing authorities denied speculation that "two child policy" will be introduced. Also, I fear they don't understand the importance of having more people.

Human Resource is the biggest and by far the most valuable resource of any nation. Technology, Education, and Training are important to extract more out of every human, but humans are still the fundamental unit both of consumption and production. The one single reason China grew was due to its human resources. Why would someone want less of it?

Also, a young population and work force induces creativity and life in an economy. Just see Japan, they are not as that innovative any more, are very conservative. It is a well known fact that most of the research and fundamental breakthroughs done by mathematicians is done by the age of 35.

I never really understand this sentiment that "I fear they don't understand the importance of having more people". Yizhi already presented counter argument via data, so I will not repeat it. Why does people who only spent passing interest on a subject insist that they are smarter than people who are selected solely for the ability to do the job? Worse yet, why does people assume that policy maker "does not know" something so basic.

Look, policy makers can make seemingly strange decisions, but it is generally has more reasons than the "they missed something obvious". Granted, some of the reasons may not align with your interest, but that does not mean they are stupid.

This kind argument that "China grew was due to its human resources" is getting old. Human resource is not just the numbers, it is also the quality of the population via education. You also need infrastructure, social structure, administrative coverage and a large number of other things to make development happen. Heck, even Indian's politician, boggled down politics as they are, understand that a country needs more than just population to make things happen. Many of these things will not happen if you have a population that is swelling out of control, hence why population control is necessary.

Singapore is a rather bad example for most of the nations. The reason is that it is simply too small. It is a city-state that share more characteristic with ancient Greek states than any decent sized modern country, let alone a country like China.

 

[MarkovChain]

I never really understand this sentiment that "I fear they don't understand the importance of having more people". Yizhi already presented counter argument via data,

Did a quick scatter graph of avg population age and GDP growth of countries taken from Wikipedia. The graph tell it's own story.

 

[tranquilium]

Did a quick scatter graph of avg population age and GDP growth of countries taken from Wikipedia. The graph tell it's own story.

View attachment 214792

Yizhi's data refer to the fertility rate, which in turn affect the average age.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Somebody wants to end up like Bangladesh.

In fact, with China going up the second tier level that is service sector and design/ innovation. China do not need a large labour forces.

Do you know last year 7million new university graduate and many until now still can't find a job? Many end up as nanny, odd job labourer or others.

And we got people advocating more population?

China is no singapore. It has a 1.3billion population. I would more like to see China population go down at 1.1billion. It's more quality and manageable.

TBH that is not good for the grads themselves, but it is good for society, since they will be educated low wage labor. That's how it works in the US. Huge mass of educated low wage people from state universities working odd jobs on one hand, ultra elite Silicon Valley and Boston/Cambridge university grads working at elite multinationals on the other.

 

[AndrewJin]

I never really understand this sentiment that "I fear they don't understand the importance of having more people". Yizhi already presented counter argument via data, so I will not repeat it. Why does people who only spent passing interest on a subject insist that they are smarter than people who are selected solely for the ability to do the job? Worse yet, why does people assume that policy maker "does not know" something so basic.

Look, policy makers can make seemingly strange decisions, but it is generally has more reasons than the "they missed something obvious". Granted, some of the reasons may not align with your interest, but that does not mean they are stupid.

This kind argument that "China grew was due to its human resources" is getting old. Human resource is not just the numbers, it is also the quality of the population via education. You also need infrastructure, social structure, administrative coverage and a large number of other things to make development happen. Heck, even Indian's politician, boggled down politics as they are, understand that a country needs more than just population to make things happen. Many of these things will not happen if you have a population that is swelling out of control, hence why population control is necessary.

Singapore is a rather bad example for most of the nations. The reason is that it is simply too small. It is a city-state that share more characteristic with ancient Greek states than any decent sized modern country, let alone a country like China.

For India, demographic bonus is a fake proposition. Low-quality population is rather a burden than an advantage.

 

[Lux de Veritas]

You are right but there is another angle to population as well - social security and healthcare. Governments work on a "pay as you go" basis, which means today's contribution from the young is used to meet the payout for the old. As population ages, there will be more burden on the young to sustain the costs of the old - more so because medical advances are making lifespans longer.

It is unsustainable for a state to keep on their population ponzi so that the old get supported. Also the problem of supporting the old is often overblown.

The majority of old today are able to perform some work in their advance age. They often require some support at the last 5 years of their life.

We should think of a system to make population sustainable, not to create population growth to fuel the economy-- which is a code word for exploitation by the rich.

 

[AndrewJin]

It is unsustainable for a state to keep on their population ponzi so that the old get supported. Also the problem of supporting the old is often overblown.

The majority of old today are able to perform some work in their advance age. They often require some support at the last 5 years of their life.

We should think of a system to make population sustainable, not to create population growth to fuel the economy-- which is a code word for exploitation by the rich.

And think about Chinese habit, save money....

Will go to Fujian, will probably go with family group with aunties, uncles, and cousins. It won't be me arranging.

You will be impressed by Fujian today, once one of the most awful provinces of costal China. Fuzhou-Hefei-Beijing HSR will be open this July.

 

[powastick]

And think about Chinese habit, save money....


You will be impressed by Fujian today, once one of the most awful provinces of costal China. Fuzhou-Hefei-Beijing HSR will be open this July.

Yeah, very impress. Family members no longer poor peasants.

 

[Edison Chen]

 

[milvipes]

Increase population growth to fund short-term social welfare = 飲鴆止渴 (drink poison to quench thirst). It will doom us all.

 

[macnurv]

What's do you think the future of Malaysian Chinese?

The future of Malaysia itself hangs in balance, with Najib and his gravy train feeder UMNO supporters are leading the country towards a financial meltdown with massive financial scam in 1MDB, a debt of over 42 billion RM. Sedition act is being amended to effectively use against all those who criticise the government. Even Dr. Mahatir have to state that this will effectively turn Malaysia into a police state.

On the electoral side over the course of 15 years, the Malaysian Chinese vote would cease to play any major role in elections, as the Malay population will account for roughly 68 to 70%. Pakatan been a huge failure, and since Anwars conviction the coalition is taking its last breaths.

Singaporean facing extinction: PAP's genocide explain
How the genocide works
Our disappointing fertility rate has a lot to do with our stressful lifestyle, high indebtedness due to property and job insecurity. Instead, of improving the above social ills, PAP mass import foreigners, making the matter worse. Meanwhile PAP justify their immigration policies giving reasons that Singaporean are not producing. The relentless influx of foreigners acerbates the exact social ills that sterilize Singaporean.

And when Singapore's fertility rate drops further, PAP import even more foreigners. The vicious cycle goes on and on and it seems that PAP is targeting a fertility rate of zero for Singaporean. When Singaporean has zero baby, PAP can proudly give reasons why they need to import the whole world.

Singapore's demographic time bomb and hell in making





View attachment 214565

So again blame the foreigners, how does this will help Singapore. Its a city state, it neither have land nor resources to support a massive population.

Not true. Too many brainwashing from west that say low birthrate is good. Look at Japan and south korea. It is not good. Chinese must maintain at least 1.3b -1.5b people.

No one in their right minds would suggest that China needs more population, birth control is a requirement. Indonesia would be the best example for urgency of birth control, at their current rate Indonesia population will explode out of control. Having said that some two to three decades ago they had one of the most successful birth control program in the region. With their current population growth rate, they wont have enough resources to sustain.

In China, the biggest side effect of one child policy is an exponential increase in male population, as culturally Chinese prefer male babies over female. Now china have a surplus of males, but not enough females.

 

[Lux de Veritas]

The future of Malaysia itself hangs in balance, with Najib and his gravy train feeder UMNO supporters are leading the country towards a financial meltdown with massive financial scam in 1MDB, a debt of over 42 billion RM. Sedition act is being amended to effectively use against all those who criticise the government. Even Dr. Mahatir have to state that this will effectively turn Malaysia into a police state.

On the electoral side over the course of 15 years, the Malaysian Chinese vote would cease to play any major role in elections, as the Malay population will account for roughly 68 to 70%. Pakatan been a huge failure, and since Anwars conviction the coalition is taking its last breaths.




So again blame the foreigners, how does this will help Singapore. Its a city state, it neither have land nor resources to support a massive population.



No one in their right minds would suggest that China needs more population, birth control is a requirement. Indonesia would be the best example for urgency of birth control, at their current rate Indonesia population will explode out of control. Having said that some two to three decades ago they had one of the most successful birth control program in the region. With their current population growth rate, they wont have enough resources to sustain.

In China, the biggest side effect of one child policy is an exponential increase in male population, as culturally Chinese prefer male babies over female. Now china have a surplus of males, but not enough females.

The honest Singapore build a wealthy and rich city while all those 3rd world foreigner screwed up their motherland big time. Without you guys, we be better.

Singaporeans create miracle out of nothing and 3rd world foreigners with everything make a mess out of their land.

 

[powastick]

The future of Malaysia itself hangs in balance, with Najib and his gravy train feeder UMNO supporters are leading the country towards a financial meltdown with massive financial scam in 1MDB, a debt of over 42 billion RM. Sedition act is being amended to effectively use against all those who criticise the government. Even Dr. Mahatir have to state that this will effectively turn Malaysia into a police state.

On the electoral side over the course of 15 years, the Malaysian Chinese vote would cease to play any major role in elections, as the Malay population will account for roughly 68 to 70%. Pakatan been a huge failure, and since Anwars conviction the coalition is taking its last breaths.

You're well verse in Malaysia politics. Like Mahathir said, there is a huge resentment among Malays because of the diminishing NEP. And the 'ungrateful' Chinese still do not support them. Maybe Lee Kuan Yew death cause him to be unease about the future of UMNO/Malays. Najib himself started anti-chinese during 1988 incident, I have no doubt he will use race card. With or without NEP, I'm not sure the Malays can keep up.

@AndrewJin What China has archive in the last 10 years is equivalent to Malaysia in the last 40-50 years. You guys even have better cars on the road than ours.

 

[AndrewJin]

You're well verse in Malaysia politics. Like Mahathir said, there is a huge resentment among Malays because of the diminishing NEP. And the 'ungrateful' Chinese still do not support them. Maybe Lee Kuan Yew death cause him to be unease about the future of UMNO/Malays. Najib himself started anti-chinese during 1988 incident, I have no doubt he will use race card. With or without NEP, I'm not sure the Malays can keep up.

@AndrewJin What China has archive in the last 10 years is equivalent to Malaysia in the last 40-50 years. You guys even have better cars on the road than ours.

Is it true that Malaysian Chinese dominate local economy？Parkson has branches in nearly every major cities in China.

 

[powastick]

Is it true that Malaysian Chinese dominate local economy？Parkson has branches in nearly every major cities in China.

True, but the government claim success. Parkson is own by William Cheng, Lion Group. Ever heard of Arowana cooking oil in China? That is Robert Kouk group, Wilmar International.