http://seekingalpha.com/article/400...ill-drive-electric-vehicle-growth-car-sharing
Asian Governments Will Drive Electric Vehicle Growth And Car Sharing
Sep. 21, 2016 4:44 PM ET
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New incentives rolling out from various Asian governments.
Less rapid take-up rate in North America should not be seen as an indicator of the future of electric vehicles.
New moves in Singapore point the way to the future in Asia.
Asia leading the way in the twin trends of environmental cars and a drift away from private ownership.
This opens up huge investment opportunities for investment in select Asian companies.
Electric vehicles (EVs) are a secular trend and their sales volume will grow exponentially in the next few years. Autonomous vehicles will probably become the norm in the future, but regulatory measures will slow down their adoption. People are moving from owning vehicles to sharing or not owning at all.
The exponential growth of EVs will come not only from the well-reported case of China, the world's largest market for EVs. It will also be fired up by smaller countries in Asia. The continent is at the center of this rapid transformation and the economic consequences and opportunities are huge.
These are secular trends and contribute to the poor stock performance of the Big Three auto companies in recent times. For instance, Ford (NYSE:
F) has a P/E ratio of only 5.39 and General Motors (NYSE:
GM) an even lower one of 3.96. These are ridiculously low if one considers just their sales and profit numbers.
Young people are moving away from car ownership in the traditional model. Lyft (Private:
LYFT) co-founder John Zimmer recently quoted figures of how in 1983 92% of Americans aged 20 to 24 had driving licenses. By 2014, that had declined to 77% and the rate of decline is set to quicken. Those that do remain driving will probably do so on the basis of car sharing rather than outright ownership.
He also recently
predictedthat by 2025 car ownership in U.S. cities will "all but end." One of his investors, GM, might not be so happy to hear this. It may have been more a wish than an accurate prediction as these trends will happen more rapidly in Asia than in the USA.
EVs and their development will likely lead to substantially lesser sales for the conventional car companies though. A
recent studyby the OECD found that such vehicles would reduce the number of cars required by over 80%.
Asian companies, backed by their Governments, stand to gain the most from this.
The World Market
There are good socio-cultural reasons why the EV take-up in North America is slower than many had anticipated. The wasteful gas guzzler is a part of American culture. This is strengthened by the well-funded campaigns by the fossil fuel industries against companies such as Tesla (NASDAQ:
TSLA) and against the science of climate change. Elsewhere in the world, these campaigns are not treated very seriously.
A recent
Twitter pollin the USA had 66% of respondents saying they would not expect to be driving an EV until at least 7 years into the future. In Europe and in Asia, the expectation amongst consumers is much greater. It should also be borne in mind that in Europe and Asia, a higher proportion of the population are city dwellers. As such, car sharing and public transport are more obvious alternatives.
In terms of
marketshare, light-duty plug-in EVs accounted as a portion of total auto sales as follows in 2015:
USA = 0.66%
China = 0.84%
Japan = 1.2%
Netherlands = 9.74%
Norway = 22.39%
United Kingdom = 1.1%
Germany = 0.73%
Figures for EV sales so far this year show a continuing trend:
China continues to be the fastest growing market. It is followed by Japan, and by "Other," which itself is mainly Asian countries.
Two factors are more important than the current bare numbers. Firstly, the rate of growth of EVs in non-North American countries is increasing rapidly. In North America, it is quite stable. Secondly, the Government incentives elsewhere are set to remain in place and/or intensify as time goes by. This is especially so in Asia, which is the focus of this article.
Asian Car Markets
In the
first quarterof 2016, China increased its position as the world's largest auto market with sales of 6.65 million vehicles. This compares to 4.08 million vehicles in the USA. Japan was the third largest market with 1.46 million vehicles, India the fifth largest with 863,000 and South Korea tenth with 423,000 vehicles.
In the realm of EVs, China is far ahead of the rest of the world.
EV sales for August are shown below.
The savvy investor may want to study the potential investment returns of these Chinese manufacturers. One drawback can be the often opaque financial records available. Note that the most successful non-Chinese company is Tesla, coming in at No. 17 on the list of the 31,000 EVs sold. This August monthly figure is an increase of 95% on the August 2015 sales. 95% of the EVs sold in China are from Chinese manufacturers.
It is expected that 450,000 EVs will be sold in China this year. This would represent approximately 50% of the world market. That makes the official Government target of 3 million EVs by 2025 seem attainable.
Asian sales of autos are increasing rapidly as a proportion of the world total. This is happening concurrently with both standard autos and EVs. This ties in to the long-term trend of Asian countries increasing their share of global GDP. For instance, the
world economygrew by 2.7% in the second quarter of this year. China's grew by 6.7% and India by 7.1%. The two countries combined accounted for 63% of global growth.
In his recent best-seller, "Sapiens" author Yuval Noah Harari points out how in 1775 Asia accounted for 80% of the world economy. India and China represented two-thirds of global production. Then capitalism and its subsequent innovation emerged and Europe seized the day. One does not need to see such long-term trends to see a reversal happening today. With capitalism dominant everywhere in a world economy, the continent with the most people and with a young population will grow the fastest. The auto industry will be symptomatic of this.
China is at the center of both the increasing use and the increasing manufacture of EVs. For instance, BYD Co. (
OTCPK:BYDDY) about which I
wrote recentlyis already the world's largest EV manufacturer. From the August sales figures for China I illustrate above, BYD has a 33% market share in China. In a business where economies of scale are vital and entrance into a market is not easy, they appear to have a very strong position.
They have the added advantage of breadth of range. They are manufacturing 3 full-out EVs and 2 PHEVs (plug-in hybrids). This contrasts to Tesla, which is concentrating on non-hybrid models. That leaves out completely the third option, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. That is the way some countries, notably Japan, will go. It might be argued that the market in Asia will be so big that there will be room for all.
BYD's portfolio includes not just electric autos, but also it is the world leader in electric buses. This is a market which is growing fast and is not so niche as some have imagined. Indeed European and American manufacturers appear to have missed the bus somewhat and are arriving late to the party.
BYD has strong vertically integrated businesses in battery manufacture and solar power. There is a similarity with Tesla there. They are also setting up manufacturing plants around the world in locations such as Brazil and California. This can be seen as a reversal of what Western auto companies have been doing in China. In a
recent article, I detailed the Western companies rushing to invest in EV manufacturing in China. The flow in the opposite direction might however be more meaningful.
There are plenty of other EV manufacturers in China, producing vehicles of deeply varying quality. These are not just car manufacturing companies switching to EVs. As in the West, IT companies are increasingly becoming involved and linking with auto companies.
For instance, Chinese search engine leader Baidu (NASDAQ:
BIDU) is targeting having a fleet of autonomous vehicles up and running by 2021. It is already making trials of an autonomous vehicle in China. It recently received approval from the Authorities in California to test there. Its expertise in mapping and in Artificial Intelligence (AI) make it a strong player in the market. It has recently signed an agreement with Nvidia (NASDAQ:
NVDA) for further co-operation in AI initiatives.
Baidu sees itself as a software developer in the auto industry and its vehicles would be manufactured by others. It already has an agreement with BYD in this regard. It has also got a financial stake in Uber (Private:
UBER). BYD Corp. itself recently had a substantial investment from Korea's Samsung (
OTC:SSNLF).
Baidu's success in its search engine business gives it a strong cash position to invest in autos, an advantage Tesla does not have. Similarly BYD has a profitable range of businesses (and a meaningful investment from Warren Buffett) from which to invest in the new technologies. For those wary of investing in Chinese companies, Baidu is traded as an ADR on US exchanges which necessitates it complies with certain accounting standards.
Government incentives for both the manufacture and the usage of EVs will remain in place in China until Government targets are met. It is how the country works. Apart from the pure economic incentives, the strength of Confucianism makes the population much more inclined to follow the dictates of those in Authority than in the more individualistic West. A totalitarian state ruled by technocrats can, in this instance, be more effective than a free-wheeling capitalist country gridlocked by political paralysis.
China is only one player though. Other Asian countries are moving rapidly towards EVs and towards a stress on environmentalism.
Singapore
Singapore is a small and affluent nation-state. Recent moves there point the way to future developments in more substantial countries in Asia.
As I detailed in a
previous article, Singapore was rather slow to get off the mark in regard to EVs. Now, though Singapore is going full steam ahead. There is a Government-led policy in regard to EVs and to autonomous vehicles. This is directed in conjunction with huge expenditure on public transport.
In August, nuTonomy launched a self-driving taxi service (with human backups) using vehicles from Renault (
OTCPK:RNLSY) and from Mitsubishi (
OTCPK:MMTOF).
nuTonomy is a private company founded by two Massachusetts Institute of Technology graduates. It is also said to be working on projects in the USA and in the UK (in conjunction with Jaguar Land Rover). It is just in a trial stage at present with a limited number of participants able to summon vehicles using their smartphones. The company hopes to have the service fully up and running by 2018 with 75 vehicles in play. The Mitsubishi is pictured below.
The Renault is pictured below:
A U.K. company Delphi Automotive Systems is targeting a fleet of 50 autonomous vehicles in Singapore by 2022.
The autonomous vehicle initiatives are driven by the Singapore Government, which has set up a
self-driving vehicle research centerand test track. This is part of an official Government proclaimed "car-lite Singapore" policy. Singapore is probably the most expensive country in the world to own a car at present.
Meanwhile, this was followed in September by Uber launching an all EV fleet using vehicles from BYD Corp. This is starting immediately with BYD's economical e6 model pictured below:
It is plannedthat 30 vehicles will be on the road by the end of the year. That number is set to increase to 1,000 by 2018. Currently, the e6 can run for about 400 kilometers, but takes two hours to recharge.
The Singapore Government is also conducting trials on electric buses from BYD. This will again be a fast-growing area in Asia.
Recent researchin Singapore has emphasized the very harmful effects people waiting at bus stops suffer from the tiny pollutant particles of less than PM2.5 which diesel buses spew out.
South Korea
The world's tenth largest market for autos is moving the same way as Singapore. Its capital, Seoul, used to be known for pollution and traffic gridlock. Recent
initiativeshave been centered around making the capital more environmentally friendly and less car-dependent.
The Seoul Skygarden is a highway being converted into a park. The old city's four main gates have been transformed into an 18.6 kilometer walking track. Bicycle networks have been set up around the city. Increased expenditure has been set aside for the capital's already extensive public transport network. The Government's official policy is to make cars redundant in Seoul by 2030. The Government has admitted it was slow to promote EVs. The EV share of the market last year was just 0.2%. The target is to hit 5.3% by 2020.
Local manufacturers Hyundai (
OTC:HYMLF) and Kia (
OTC:KIMTF) are coming out with a raft of plug-in EVs and hydrogen fuel cell autos. Tesla set up a sales office there recently.
South Korea is just one example. Elsewhere in Asia, moves to EVs can be seen everywhere. An Indian Government minister has set a goal to have only EVs on the road by 2025. This will not actually happen, but the fact that he felt he should say it is relevant.
Japan now has more electric charging stations than it has gas stations. Or, put another way, it has more than Europe and the USA combined. Fuel cell vehicles are being strongly promoted by the Government and the domestic market is likely to remain dominated by Japanese manufacturers.
In Hong Kong, the Special Administrative Region of China, Tesla has a booming business. EVs have the third highest penetration of EV' as a percentage of all cars of any country in the world. Only Norway and the Netherlands have a higher percentage. Doubters who claimed EVs would not work in high density cities where virtually everyone lives in apartments have been proved wrong. The city has over 1300 public charging facilities for EVs. What has happened in Hong Kong, and what is happening now in Singapore and South Korea, is a foretaste of what will happen all around Asia.
Conclusion
The trends of changing to EVs and reducing private car ownership are accelerating rapidly in Asia.
To take just one example. In Singapore, as of August this year, there were 40,000 rental cars on the road. This represented an increase of 173% over 2012. Most of these rental vehicles are owned by Uber and Grab. The latter is a subsidiary of China's Didi Chuxing, in which Apple (NASDAQ:
AAPL) recently took a US$1 billion stake. This rental trend leads inevitably to much more efficient use of autos than that of private ownership.
The secular changes in the auto market will be a huge economic opportunity for some companies. The
world's taxi businessis valued at US$100 billion annually. The market for personal transport is valued at US$10 trillion. At present, ride-hailing accounts for only 4% of all kilometers driven. This figure is forecast to rise to over 25% by 2030. The world's leading car makers have been scrambling to tie up with ride-sharing companies. It is no coincidence that Uber is the world's most valuable start-up.
China will probably represent 50% of the world's EV market this year. The market is 95% controlled by Chinese manufacturers. Asia looks like the auto market with the most exciting opportunities for the investor.
Whether local companies like BYD and Baidu or Western ones like Tesla will benefit the most is for the individual investor to decide. BYD and other manufacturers have the products up and running, but a poor quality image in many cases. Baidu has the IT expertise but needs to secure its position in the auto world. Tesla has the sex appeal and the brand image in Asia, but a small market position in Asia and financing challenges.
The secular trends in autos are most apparent and will move most quickly in Asia. As in the dot.com boom, companies will rise and companies will fall. For the savvy investor though there are huge opportunities.