What's new

SCMP: Coronavirus: China’s first confirmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17

Hamartia Antidote

ELITE MEMBER
Joined
Nov 17, 2013
Messages
35,188
Reaction score
30
Country
United States
Location
United States
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...nas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

The first case of someone in China suffering from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, can be traced back to November 17, according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post.

Chinese authorities have so far identified at least 266 people who were infected last year, all of whom came under medical surveillance at some point.

Some of the cases were likely backdated after health authorities had tested specimens taken from suspected patients.

Interviews with whistle-blowers from the medical community suggest Chinese doctors only realised they were dealing with a new disease in late December.

Scientists have been trying to map the pattern of the early transmission of Covid-19 since an epidemic was reported in the central China city of Wuhan in January, two months before the outbreak became a global health crisis.

Understanding how the disease spread and determining how undetected and undocumented cases contributed to its transmission will greatly improve their understanding of the size of that threat.

According to the government data seen by the Post, a 55 year-old from Hubei province could have been the first person to have contracted Covid-19 on November 17.

From that date onwards, one to five new cases were reported each day. By December 15, the total number of infections stood at 27 – the first double-digit daily rise was reported on December 17 – and by December 20, the total number of confirmed cases had reached 60.

On December 27, Zhang Jixian, a doctor from Hubei Provincial Hospital of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine, told China’s health authorities that the disease was caused by a new coronavirus. By that date, more than 180 people had been infected, though doctors might not have been aware of all of them at the time.

By the final day of 2019, the number of confirmed cases had risen to 266, On the first day of 2020 it stood at 381.

While the government records have not been released to the public, they provide valuable clues about how the disease spread in its early days and the speed of its transmission, as well as how many confirmed cases Beijing has recorded.

Scientists are now keen to identify the so-called patient zero, which could help them to trace the source of the coronavirus, which is generally thought to have jumped to humans from a wild animal, possibly a bat.

Of the first nine cases to be reported in November – four men and five women – none has been confirmed as being “patient zero”. They were all aged between 39 and 79, but it is unknown how many were residents of Wuhan, the capital of Hubei and the epicentre of the outbreak.

It is possible that there were reported cases dating back even earlier than those seen by the Post.

According to the
World Health Organisation
’s website, the first confirmed Covid-19 case in China was on December 8, but the global body does not track the disease itself but relies on nations to provide such information.
A report published in medical journal The Lancet by Chinese doctors from Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan, which treated some of the earliest patients, put the date of the first known infection at December 1.

Dr Ai Fen, the first known whistle-blower, told People magazine in an interview that was later censored, that tests showed that a patient at Wuhan Central Hospital was diagnosed on December 16 as having contracted an unknown coronavirus.

Accounts by other doctors seem to suggest the medical community in Wuhan became aware of the disease in late December.

Previous reports said that although doctors in the city collected samples from suspected cases in late December, they could not confirm their findings because they were bogged down by bureaucracy, such as having to get approval from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, which could take days. They were also ordered not to disclose any information about the new disease to the public.

As late as January 11, Wuhan’s health authorities were still claiming there were just 41 confirmed cases.
 
And the Military games closed at the end of October 2019! Add 2 weeks incubation period since transmission so sounds about right for mid November.
 
And the Military games closed at the end of October 2019! Add 2 weeks incubation period since transmission so sounds about right for mid November.



but then how the first cluster appeared in Wuhan?

How come US was already having it but the community transfer didnt work the way it happened in Wuhan?

?
 
And the Military games closed at the end of October 2019! Add 2 weeks incubation period since transmission so sounds about right for mid November.

..and Iran was there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_at_the_2019_Military_World_Games


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...oronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/
Iran Has Far More Coronavirus Cases Than It Is Letting On
The surprising number of Iranian government officials succumbing to COVID-19 offers a hint that the disease is far more widespread than the official statistics indicate.

...

Soon we learned of three other senior officials who not only contracted the virus but were killed by it: Mohammad Mirmohammadi, a member of a senior advisory council to Iran's supreme leader, and Hossein Sheikholeslam and Hadi Khosrowshahi, both former high-level diplomats. Mohammad Sadr, another member of the council, announced his infection last week, as did Ebtekar’s fellow cabinet member Reza Rahmani. Recently, the speaker of parliament said 23 of his fellow members of parliament had tested positive. Two of them, Mohammad Ali Ramezani (February 29) and Fatemeh Rehber (March 7), have died.
 
..and Iran was there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_at_the_2019_Military_World_Games


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...oronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/
Iran Has Far More Coronavirus Cases Than It Is Letting On
The surprising number of Iranian government officials succumbing to COVID-19 offers a hint that the disease is far more widespread than the official statistics indicate.

And USA figures since August 2019 outbreak of an undisclosed virus that killed many with pneumonia? And blamed on 'vaping'!
 
And USA figures since August 2019 outbreak of an undisclosed virus that killed many with pneumonia? And blamed on 'vaping'!

Multiple senior politicians in Iran's Government are dead even though they claim not many people are infected.

Nobody in the US Government is dead yet.
 
Multiple senior politicians in Iran's Government are dead even though they claim not many people are infected.

Nobody in the US Government is dead yet.

The full group of Cronaviruses only exit in one country, that's USA and you are harping about Iran?

How many died in USA from the August 2019 outbreak? *Waiting for you to dodge that next*
 
The full group of Cronaviruses only exit in one country, that's USA and you are harping about Iran?

How many died in USA from the August 2019 outbreak? *Waiting for you to dodge that next*

What August outbreak? Post a link?

Why aren't we all dead by now? Why are people not piling up in hospitals like in Wuhan?
Bodies should be piling up in the streets. Millions should be dead. If Convid-19 has a 3% death rate that would be 7 million people!!! How do you hide that?

Remember the Chinese on here are saying our preparations are laughable...yet somehow we have survived 6 months of the virus running completely amuck without anybody noticing 100's of thousand to several millions dead?? We should all be trying to flee the country.

Waiting for you to dodge that
 
Last edited:
What August outbreak? Post a link?

Why aren't we all dead by now? Why are people not piling up in hospitals like in Wuhan?
Bodies should be piling up in the streets. Millions should be dead.

Waiting for you to dodge that



I would not bother with these Chinese fanboys as no amount of logic would ever convince them.
 
What August outbreak? Post a link?

Why aren't we all dead by now? Why are people not piling up in hospitals like in Wuhan?
Bodies should be piling up in the streets. Millions should be dead. If Convid-19 has a 3% death rate that would be 7 million people!!! How do you hide that?

Remember the Chinese on here are saying our preparations are laughable...yet somehow we have survived 6 months of the virus running completely amuck without anybody noticing 100's of thousand to several millions dead?? We should all be trying to flee the country.

Waiting for you to dodge that

So called EVALI ...

How stupid of you to ask the question "Why aren't we all dead by now?" Majority infected don't die, some only get light fever or sneezing. Or just feels like a nastier version of common flu. Only those with serious illnesses get pneumonia and a percentage of those die.

How many patients and deaths by pneumonia in USA last year? Where is the analysis of the Virus strain that caused the pneumonia?

50k deaths annually in USA, that's from your CDC - out of 250k hospitalised pneumonia cases! 20% death rate!

6.9% of hospitalised flu patients in USA died last year! That's published by CDC! So let's see how many hospitalised CoV19 patients die.

There's no data on exact viruses (type and strain) for pneumonia and flu deaths ... Incompetent CDC! Easy to mask the 3% (varies by country btw, not a fixed %) of CoV19 deaths in these combined figures! Majority of cases will be unreported anyways so this % will be much lower. 'Millions of deaths' is highly unlikely and you are just making sh1t up to argue.

Your government has classified all CoV19 figures as secret. Why so? To stop the daft public from panicking?
 
So called EVALI ...

How stupid of you to ask the question "Why aren't we all dead by now?" Majority infected don't die, some only get light fever or sneezing. Or just feels like a nastier version of common flu. Only those with serious illnesses get pneumonia and a percentage of those die.

How many patients and deaths by pneumonia in USA last year? Where is the analysis of the Virus strain that caused the pneumonia?

50k deaths annually in USA, that's from your CDC - out of 250k hospitalised pneumonia cases! 20% death rate!

6.9% of hospitalised flu patients in USA died last year! That's published by CDC! So let's see how many hospitalised CoV19 patients die.

There's no data on exact viruses (type and strain) for pneumonia and flu deaths ... Incompetent CDC! Easy to mask the 3% (varies by country btw, not a fixed %) of CoV19 deaths in these combined figures! Majority of cases will be unreported anyways so this % will be much lower. 'Millions of deaths' is highly unlikely and you are just making sh1t up to argue.

Your government has classified all CoV19 figures as secret. Why so? To stop the daft public from panicking?

There were an estimated 34,200 flu victims in the US between August of 2018 to April of 2019. The World Estimate for flu deaths is around 500,000 with 84,000-92,000 in China.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
"...35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza"

There's a post on PDF that says
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/up-t...s-could-get-coronavirus-us-projection.656699/
Up to 150 million Americans could get coronavirus: US projection

At a 3% death rate that would be 4.5Million. if we use last years number 16.5Mx0.03=480,000 dead, 35.5M would be 1M dead.

Any number you post for the current flu seasons deaths are not going to come ANYWHERE close to those numbers.

Remember China had 100,000 cases after only 2 months and 3,000 dead!!! Go look at how the numbers of people dying per day exploded. They only had 26 dead by day 30 and 3000 dead by day 60. The majority of those people died in just a 30 day span in one HEAVILY quarantined area of China.

Now supposedly the Coronavirus has been running amuck across the entire US for our entire flu season which started in August (7 months ago) with zero intervention. The number infected should be staggering by now with a death toll to match. We aren't talking a few thousands here we are talking in the millions!!

Let's use China's example of either a single person or a small number of people infected on August 1st (but that supposedly isn't true because 1000's of people should have it by being carried over from 2018 season so you can get an idea of how stupid your assertion is)


Just 1 or a few people:

1 month 26 dead, 2 months 3000, 3 months 20,000, 4 months 200,000, 5 months 1 million+, 6 months... it would be insane. Remember there is no quarantine here and nobody is wearing a mask!! Nobody has been taking ANY precautions before maybe 2 weeks ago. This is using only a few people as the seed not thousands or 10's of thousands that supposedly the US carried over from 2018!!!

Sheesh!!!

The death toll in Italy crossed 1000. There were only 21 deaths in Italy 2 weeks ago (Feb 28th)!!! Can you imagine what it would be at 28 weeks (7 months) undiscovered and untreated!!!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/28/coronavirus-live-updates-latest-news-china-wuhan-stock-markets-update
Italy Covid-19 death toll rises to 21 as UK confirms 20th case – as it happened

bbc.com/news/world-europe-51852320
12 March 2020
Coronavirus: Italy says 1,000 have died but lockdown can work
 
Last edited:
There were an estimated 34,200 flu victims in the US between August of 2018 to April of 2019. The World Estimate for flu deaths is around 500,000 with 84,000-92,000 in China.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
"...35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza"

There's a post on PDF that says
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/up-t...s-could-get-coronavirus-us-projection.656699/
Up to 150 million Americans could get coronavirus: US projection

At a 3% death rate that would be 4.5Million. if we use last years number 16.5Mx0.03=480,000 dead, 35.5M would be 1M dead.

Any number you post for the current flu seasons deaths are not going to come ANYWHERE close to those numbers.

Remember China had 100,000 cases after only 2 months and 3,000 dead!!! Go look at how the numbers of people dying per day exploded. They only had 26 dead by day 30 and 3000 dead by day 60. The majority of those people died in just a 30 day span in one HEAVILY quarantined area of China.

Now supposedly the Coronavirus has been running amuck in the US for our entire flu season which started in August (7 months ago) with zero intervention. The number infected should be staggering by now with a death toll to match. We aren't talking a few thousands here we are talking in the millions!!

Let's use China's example of either a single person or a small number of people infected on August 1st (but that supposedly isn't true because 1000's of people should have it by being carried over from 2018 season so you can get an idea of how stupid your assertion is)


Just 1 or a few people:

1 month 26 dead, 2 months 3000, 3 months 20,000, 4 months 200,000, 5 months 1 million+, 6 months... it would be insane. Remember there is no quarantine here and nobody is wearing a mask!! Nobody has been taking ANY precautions before maybe 2 weeks ago. This is using only a few people as the seed not thousands or 10's of thousands that supposedly the US carried over from 2018!!!

Sheesh!!!

So you are projecting 4.5m dead Americans.

Start digging the graves then. We will revisit this conversation after 1 year from now and bring data of 4.5m deaths with you then!!

Reported/diagnosed cases are a small percentage of Actual cases.

It would be better to measure the impact of this virus by hospitalised/admission to death rate. But that's still not accurate enough.

6.9% influenza admission to death rate. Let's see if CoV19 beats that rate in USA at least.

Also CDC doesn't count influenza and pneumonia deaths of those not hospitalised, without healthcare.

Where is the CDC data for the deaths by Virus type/strain? Apparently the Head of CDC says they didn't carry out such analysis. So now you Americans can makeup whatever you want, even if CoV19 has been spreading for 7 months or more in USA with deaths unaccounted towards it.

Btw, Italy's fatality rate is 7% ... You should be projecting higher number as the obesity level is the highest in USA thus fatality rate should be increased accordingly. So what's the new number, 10% or 15% or more?
 
So you are projecting 4.5m dead Americans.

Start digging the graves then. We will revisit this conversation after 1 year from now and bring data of 4.5m deaths with you then!!

Reported/diagnosed cases are a small percentage of Actual cases.

It would be better to measure the impact of this virus by hospitalised/admission to death rate. But that's still not accurate enough.

6.9% influenza admission to death rate. Let's see if CoV19 beats that rate in USA at least.

Also CDC doesn't count influenza and pneumonia deaths of those not hospitalised, without healthcare.

Where is the CDC data for the deaths by Virus type/strain? Apparently the Head of CDC says they didn't carry out such analysis. So now you Americans can makeup whatever you want, even if CoV19 has been spreading for 7 months or more in USA with deaths unaccounted towards it.

Btw, Italy's fatality rate is 7% ... You should be projecting higher number as the obesity level is the highest in USA thus fatality rate should be increased accordingly. So what's the new number, 10% or 15% or more?

You just keep saying things that only reinforce my assertions.
People are going to notice hundreds of thousands of people suddenly dropping dead.

Even if the government said they all died from sprained ankles people are going to notice it.
 
So China suppressed this for 2 months and let world get affected. How noble of them. World should be grateful to Xi for loss of lives and economic hardships.
 
Back
Top Bottom