Divided They Fall – Cracks in the Middle East
he Arab nations on the other side of the gulf are flexing muscle not against archrival, Iran, but one of their own kind. Today, a Qatar’s ruling member was included in a list – issued jointly by United Arab Emirate, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt – of individuals allegedly nurturing close ties with terrorists.
The United Arab Emirates, the most vocal and pro-active opponent of Qatar’s policies, closed its airspace for any flights destined to Qatar or flying from its airports, meanwhile. The earlier ban was limited to Qatar Airways alone. The Arab Gulf states continue to hurt their ties as well as interests of friendly nations by imposing harsh restrictions. Though jealously defending its independent policies and defiantly opposing guardianship, Qatar has largely exercised graceful restraint, so far.
Some 5,000 kilometres away, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan fast-tracked a legislation authorising the deployment of the country’s military in Qatar. The two countries had in principle agreed to set up a new base during Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Doha. In a bizarre twist to an already weird story, Ankara is sending 5,000 troops to Doha soon. The two sides believe that the deployment will deter any military adventure from the neighbouring allies-turned-foes.
Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman told Al-Jazeera in an interview Thursday that the contingent of Turkish troops set to deploy to Qatar was for the sake of the entire region’s security. “There cannot ever be a military solution to this problem,” he stressed.
Erdoğan in Qatar for his third official trip since being elected president. AA [File Photo]
Angered by Erdogan’s decision to stand by Tamim al-Thani, the Saudis have questioned his desire to mediate. After his return home, Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah briefed Erdogan of his tireless yet fruitless mediation efforts in a phone call on Wednesday night. The two countries have been connected on what can be called a 24-hour hotline to defuse the escalating row between Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain with Qatar. Strangely, the Turkish president did not take the initiative a fortnight ago when the rift began. He has reportedly sent a delegation to the Gulf nations’ capitals.
From fake news to authentic crisis
It all started with the alleged hacking of
Qatar News Agency on May 24, disseminating a speech of Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, claiming to be delivered at a military graduation ceremony.
The emir was purportedly lauding Doha’s good relations with Tel Aviv while voicing support for Palestinian organisation, Hamas. The controversial news item also claimed that al-Thani even suggested US President Donald Trump might not last long in power due to legal issues concerning the Russia links.
Qatar vehemently denied the emir even speaking at the event. He just attended the ceremony, it clarified, while acknowledging successful hacking of the QNA website.
The ‘fake news’ had already angered the neighbouring Gulf nations as well as Egypt. The Qatari clarification or denial was ignored by the four countries, which officially kept mum as their state-controlled media aggressively attacked the Arab leader. The vicious media campaign, which has been intensifying by the hour, spared no one in the Qatari ruling family as well as cabinet members.
Meanwhile, three neighbouring countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain) and Egypt cut off diplomatic relations while banning Qatar Airways operation in their respective countries, closing their airspaces for Qatar besides giving a 14-day notice to its citizens to leave the country. As if the actions were not punitive enough, an economic embargo was also imposed, thus denying vital supplies of water, food and medicine to name a few.
Kuwait and Oman did not follow the UAE and Saudi-led policy of boycotting Qatar.
No smoke without fire?
Qatar is known to have a soft corner for the pan-Islamist political party, Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in most of the Arab countries except Jordan and Morocco. Erdogan, who subscribes to the ideology of Al-Ikhwan Al-Muslimeen, also enjoys very close ties with the Qatari ruling family.
Moreover, it has tried to establish Doha as the centre for conflict resolution for the Muslim world as well as Africa. The country has been involved in peace negotiations between warring factions of Sudan, Somalia and even hosts the political office of the Taliban.
Qatar has already expelled dozens of figures deemed controversial or a threat by the neighbouring GCC states. The allegations of supporting Ikhwan and Hamas to destabilise Egypt and serving a base for Shiite unrest in eastern Saudi Arabia brought newer dynamics to the entire gambit. While officially no claims of sharing proofs have been made, social media outlets have been used to build a perception against Qatar. The tiny energy-rich state has faced the nasty campaign with grace and restraint, with the government advising citizens not insult other countries or leaders. Even if the row ends, Doha will need a consorted effort to undo the damage done to its repute by labelling her the ‘financier and protector of terrorists’.
Trump tweets, Erdogan decrees
Tayyip Erdogan and Donald J Trump, both the leaders with significant leverage in the Arabian Gulf, hastily took sides early in the crisis.
Ankara initially called for the Gulf unity and readiness to help however it can to bring the disputes to a manageable level. Foreign Minister Cavusoglu also said: “Turkey sees the unity and solidarity among Gulf states as our own unity.” Given the aggressive posturing against his closest ally, Erdogan firmly stood behind Qatar while still offering help in resolving the crisis.
While Qatar hosts Washington’s largest military base in the Middle East – housing 10,000 troops and their wherewithal – Trump did not hesitate to public admonish her in sync with the line adopted by the UAE and Saudi Arabia. He tweeted: “
They (Muslim Countries in Riyadh) said they would take a hard line on funding extremism, and all reference was pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!”
Anwar Gargash, UAE state minister for foreign affairs, said: “This is not about regime change – this is about change of policy, change of approach.”
King Salman receives Kuwait ruler Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah (left) at the Al-Salam Palace in Jeddah on Tuesday. (SPA)
As the military remains on the highest alert to preempt any attempt to invade Qatar or remove of the emir through intrigues, the key to the crisis lies with Kuwait’s Emir Sabah who enjoys enormous respect in the GCC ruling families. He has wealth of experience and personal reportage for serving his country as Foreign Minister for 40 years (from 1963-2003).
When Dr Mohammad Morsi won the election in Egypt and took power in Egypt, a similar but less tense situation arose between Qatar and its neighbours. Eventually, Qatar had to face diplomatic isolation for eight months in 2014. Emir al-Sabah acted as the mediator at that time as well. After the initial lack of a breakthrough, the Kuwaiti emir has not given up. He is still shuttling between Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Doha. Much needed support from Washington came but typically late and with a sour taste. Trump’s reconciliatory tweet has failed to put out the fire his previous comment added fuel too. Moreover, Emir of Qatar has declined to leave Doha for travelling to Washington on his invitation. The best White House can do is convince the UAE of restraint which has taken the most extreme steps so far. Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to send troops makes Turkey controversial for Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE. Yet it can act as a deterrent against military invasion.
Searching for a ray of hope
French President Emmanuel Macron can help diffuse tension too for his country has a sizeable base in Oman. While the US diplomacy remains uncertain and the British political disarray offer no hope, Paris can come forward to fill the void. The Saudi defence minister is already visiting Germany today while Qatari foreign minister flies to Russia. Tehran and Moscow will be true beneficiaries of a prolonged strife. Not only will Iran be able to replace Saudi Arabia as a key supplier of food, water and other necessary commodities while dent the GCC unity by creating dependence. For Russia and Iran, other gains include a surge in oil prices as well as deepening fault lines amongst rebels opposed to Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian tyrant can survive in Damascus due to heavy Russian airpower, scores of military advisors, Iranian troops and paid mercenaries.
Though caught in Panama Leaks, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif too has personal relations with the four GCC nations. His active diplomacy can strengthen Emir al-Sabah’s efforts.
Conflict in the Gulf region will spell disaster for many Muslim countries like Pakistan. From foreign policy to energy security, the odds will be stacked against Islamabad. Besides skyrocketing energy prices, the country will have to withstand return of hundreds of thousands of expatriate employed in UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and to an extent Saudi Arabia. Not only will their return add burden on the economy but valuable remittances will also get a serious blow.
It’s time for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to rise to the occasion and fly to Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha. He has personal relations with the ruling families for decades. His active diplomacy can strengthen Emir al-Sabah’s efforts for stability and unity in the Gulf region. Though wedged in Panama Leaks probe, his statesmanship can serve stability in the region and reinforce Pakistan’s stature as a friend in need besides rehabilitating some of his lost political clouts.
As of now, Qatar is not ready to submit to the coercion through diplomatic isolation and economic blockade. “We are not ready to surrender, and will never be ready to surrender, the independence of our foreign policy,” its foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman said in his latest public statement.
Naveed Ahmad – The writer is a Pakistani investigative journalist and academic with extensive reporting experience in the Middle East and North Africa. Based in Doha and Istanbul, he specialises in matters concerning security, diplomacy and governance.
Qatar Crisis Could Give Birth To Even More Terrorism
s Egypt, Saudi Arabia and three other Arab countries are isolating Qatar, the Qatar diplomatic crisis could give birth to even more extremism and terrorism around the world.
As the Arab world’s biggest powers cut ties with Qatar on Monday over its alleged support for the Muslim Brotherhood
(Ikhwan-ul-Muslimeen), ISIS (Islamic State) and al-Qaeda, the Qatar diplomatic crisis could potentially complicate the international anti-terrorism measures and spread, even more, terrorism around the world.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia and three other Arab countries severed diplomatic relations with Qatar, potentially creating a big headache for the U.S. and the rest of the world in the long run. The controversial move comes just two weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to the region and his demand for Muslim states to step up efforts to fight extremism and terrorism.
It’s unclear, however, if Trump had anything to do with the Qatari diplomatic crisis, which erupted with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar in a coordinated move early Monday. Hours later, Yemen, Libya’s eastern-based government and the Maldives joined the initiative of turning one of the world’s richest countries into a pariah state.
Qatari crisis could give rise to extremism and terrorism across the world
U.S. and the international community’s anti-terrorism measures are no thin ice, with the Qatari diplomatic crisis likely to give rise to more terrorism and extremism in the region. Qatar – which is populated by about 2.5 million people – has been accused of sponsoring Islamic militants, though the Qatari government has for years dismissed the claims.
The Qatari diplomatic crisis could become a major obstacle for the U.S. in its efforts to eradicate ISIS in the region, as Qatar hosts a major U.S. military base that commands the America-led air campaign against the militant group. While Qatar is an ally of the U.S., the powers cutting ties with Qatar are Washington’s primary Arab allies, which means the diplomatic crisis could deteriorate Qatar-U.S. relations and even potentially cut Washington off its access to its Qatari military base. It also does not bode well for the Qatar-U.S. ties that the Arabic isolation of Qatar comes just two weeks after U.S. President Trump’s milestone visit to the region.
While the Qatari diplomatic crisis came as an abrupt and surprising move to many, Jacob Wolisnky correctly predicted Qatar’s pariah status back in 2013. Since then, cracks in Qatar’s relations with its biggest neighbours have been further deepening over the nation’s alleged ties to the Taliban and Muslim Brotherhood
(Ikhwan-ul-Muslimeen).
The US could lose access to its major military base in Qatar, complicating anti-terrorism efforts
In addition to severing diplomatic ties with Qatar, the U.S. primary Arab allies also cut off the land, air and sea links to and from one of the world’s richest countries that are set to host the biggest football event in five years, the World Cup 2022. Closing all transport links to Qatari land, all but Egypt gave Qatari visitors and their residents two weeks to leave the country. Supply shortages have been caused as a result of the diplomatic crisis, causing turmoil across Qatar.
The U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson urged the Arab nations to sort out their differences in the wake of the Qatari diplomatic crisis, potentially suggesting that the anti-Qatar move was not ordered or even approved by Trump during his high-profile visit to the region in May.
The isolation of Qatar could also push the Arab nation into the hands of Russia, Turkey and Iran. But arguably the biggest headache for the U.S. is the high chance of America’s military forces losing access to its large Qatari military base, complicating U.S.-led operations against Islamic militants in the region. The consequences of that could potentially spawn more terrorism and extremism around the world. And given that the terrorist threat in Europe is already at a critical level, namely the U.K. in the wake of a string of recent terror attacks in Manchester and London, the slightest chance of even more terrorism in the world is quite alarming.
Alarming consequences of Qatari diplomatic crisis
As the Middle East is slowly sinking into a new crisis, in addition to potential complications in the U.S. efforts to fight extremist groups in the region, the Qatar diplomatic crisis could also challenge America’s plans to confront an assertive Iran. As the U.S. is looking to form a united front to challenge Iran, the Qatari diplomatic crisis could actually push Qatar closer to Iran.
The Qatari diplomatic crisis could considerably undermine the operations of the U.S.-led coalition to fight extremist groups in the region, while calls to eradicate militants from the Middle East became one of the highlights of Trump’s speech during the visit to Saudi Arabia last month. That furthermore raises questions about whether or not the Trump administration was aware of one of the most influential Arab nations’ plans to isolate Qatar. After all, the Qatari diplomatic crisis bears several risks, among them a high chance of the U.S. having no access to its Qatari military base – something that could significantly complicate America’s efforts to fight extremists in the region.
Qatar Airways: expensive ticket prices, longer journey time
Besides the possibility of spreading more terrorism and radicalism around the world, there are also other potential consequences of the Qatari diplomatic crisis. Since the Arab nations cut air links to and from Qatar, Qatar Airways – one of the world’s busiest airlines – would no longer be able to fly the U.S. and Europe through Saudi and Egyptian airspace. The consequence of that is longer journey times via plane, inefficient trip routeings, elevated fuel costs and potentially increased plane ticket prices.
On Monday, Saudi Arabia also shut down Al Jazeera’s bureau in the kingdom, which may suggest that Qatar’s state-owned satellite channel – one of the most influential news outlets in the Arab world – could find itself in trouble as well. The Qatari diplomatic crisis will most likely undermine the country’s economy, increase inflation, make it a less attractive country for foreign investments as well as damage Qatar-based businesses’ commercial prospects.
@GroundZero_pk
Trump backs Saudi over Qatar row, then urges ‘unity’
WASHINGTON DC: US President Donald Trump urged Gulf unity Tuesday in remarks released just hours after he appeared to back Saudi Arabia and its regional allies’ decision to sever ties with Qatar.
In an abrupt and sweeping move, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain announced Monday they were cutting diplomatic relations and closing air, sea and land links with Qatar.
Triggering the Arab world’s biggest crisis in years, they accused the tiny Gulf state of harbouring extremist groups and suggested Qatar supported the agenda of Riyadh’s arch-rival, Iran.
Trump waded into the row in a series of early morning tweets that signalled support for the effort to isolate Qatar, despite the country being home to the largest American airbase in the Middle East.
“So good to see the Saudi Arabia visit with the King and 50 countries already paying off,” he tweeted in reference to his trip to Riyadh last month.
“They said they would take a hard line on funding… extremism and all references were pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!”
The broadside came as Kuwait’s ruler flew to Saudi Arabia to try to resolve the split.
A
CNN report then cited Qatar’s foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani as saying FBI experts had concluded that Russian hackers had a hand in the furor.
The broadcaster said US intelligence officials believe the hackers planted a false story on
Qatar’s state news agency that may have prompted the Saudi Arabia-led sanctions on Qatar.
Speaking earlier to the
BBC, Thani responded to Trump’s tweets, denying any funding “of terrorism” and saying there was no “evidence that the Qatar government is supporting radical Islamists.”
Energy-rich Qatar has long had strained ties with its neighbours, but the move by Saudi Arabia and its supporters raised fears of more volatility in the region.
Trump spoke by telephone with Saudi Arabia’s ruler King Salman later Tuesday in an exchange of notably different tone from the US president’s earlier remarks on Twitter.
“The president underscored that a United Gulf Cooperation Council is critical to defeating terrorism and promoting regional stability,” the White House said in a statement regarding the call.
“The two leaders discussed the critical goals of preventing the financing of terrorist organisations and eliminating the promotion of extremism by any nation in the region.”
The Gulf Cooperation Council is a regional bloc comprising Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Oman.
Support for Qatar came from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who criticised the sanctions and vowed to maintain and develop ties with Doha.
“Efforts to isolate Qatar… will not solve any problem,” he said, praising Doha’s “cool-headedness” and “constructive approach.”
But the Saudi-led action was already having tangible effects, with dozens of flights cancelled, Qatari planes barred from regional airspace, and panic buying in Doha amid fears of food shortages.
As well as cutting diplomatic relations and ordering Qatari citizens to leave their countries within 14 days, the Gulf States and Egypt banned all flights to and from Qatar.
UAE carriers Emirates, Etihad, flydubai and Air Arabia, as well as Saudi Airlines, had all announced the suspension of flights to and from Qatar as of Tuesday morning.
Another Arab nation, Jordan, said after studying the causes of the crisis with Qatar it was downgrading its diplomatic representation and withdrawing licenses for the Amman bureau of the Doha-based TV news channel
Al-Jazeera.
The West African state of Mauritania backed Riyadh and cut ties with Qatar, saying Doha’s policies had “supported terrorist organisations… and promoted chaos in many Arab countries”.
Qatar has said it is open to talks, but Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir said the Gulf state must “change their policies” and stop supporting “extremist groups”.
French President Emmanuel Macron said he was ready to back “all initiatives to encourage calm”.
The crisis will have wide-ranging consequences, not just for Qatar and its citizens but across the Middle East and for Western interests.
Some 10,000 military personnel are stationed at the Al-Udeid airbase. As the forward headquarters of US Central Command, it is seen as crucial in the US-led campaign against the IS group.
A Pentagon spokesman said the crisis has had “no impact on our operations in Qatar or with regards to airspace permission around it”.
The International Air Transport Association called on the countries that acted against Qatar to restore air links with the country, warning of major travel disruptions.
Qatar is also a major regional diplomatic player and international investor and is set to host the World Cup, football’s biggest tournament, in 2022.
But Qatar has also long been accused by its Gulf neighbours and Egypt of supporting extremist groups.
In announcing it was cutting ties, Riyadh accused Doha of harbouring “terrorist and sectarian groups that aim to destabilise the region including the Muslim Brotherhood, IS and Al-Qaeda”.
Riyadh also accused Doha of supporting Iran-backed “terrorist activities” in eastern Saudi Arabia and in Shiite-majority Bahrain.
“The measures are unjustified and are based on false and baseless claims,” Qatar said in response to Monday’s announcement.
Gulf countries previously recalled their ambassadors from Qatar in 2014, ostensibly over its support for the Brotherhood, but Monday’s moves go much further.
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies may have felt emboldened by Trump’s visit to Riyadh, which saw the new president clearly align US interests with Riyadh and lash out at Iran.
Qatar has an independent streak that has often angered its neighbours, attracting criticism for supporting Islamist rebels in Syria, and in 2013, the Afghan Taliban opened a Doha office.
Fellow Gulf states are also reported to have been angered by a huge ransom paid by Doha earlier this year to secure the release of a hunting party, which included members of the Qatari royal family, kidnapped in southern Iraq.
The ransom, which Iraqi officials said was in the “hundreds of millions of dollars”, was believed to have been paid to militias with close ties to Tehran.
@GroundZero_pk
Iran comes to Qatar’s rescue, sends planes of food
TEHRAN: Iran has sent five planes of vegetables to Qatar, Iran’s national carrier told foreign news agency on Sunday, days after Gulf countries cut off air and other transport links to the emirate.
“So far five planes carrying… vegetables have been sent to Qatar, each carrying around 90 tonnes of cargo, while another plane will be sent today (Sunday),” Iran Air spokesman Shahrokh Noushabadi said.
“We will continue deliveries as long as there is demand from Qatar,” Noushabadi added, without mentioning if these deliveries were exports or aid.
Three ships loaded with 350 tonnes of fruit and vegetables were also set to leave an Iranian port for Qatar, the Tasnim news agency quoted a local official as saying.
The port of Dayyer is Iran’s closest port to Qatar.
In the biggest diplomatic crisis in the region in years, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, plus Egypt and Yemen, on Monday announced they were cutting all ties with Qatar, accusing it of supporting extremism.
Iran has urged Qatar and neighbouring Gulf countries to engage in dialogue to resolve their dispute.
The Islamic Republic has also opened its airspace to about 100 more Qatari flights a day, after Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates banned Qatari planes from their airspace.
The new flights have increased Iranian air traffic by 17 per cent, the official state news agency has reported.
@GroundZero_pk
. I never knew that. Interesting.
