Sarkozy to Seek China Aid as EU Expands Rescue Fund

[lem34]

I think its accepted that the norm is that power and money are interchangable. China can use its dominence in money to get what it wants politically. They used to talk about in western circles that when western leaders at meetings with chinese officials should always bring up "human rights" etc as a must. Well now the shoes on the other foot China can bring up how protesters are dealt with in lets say London by brit govn etc dont you just love it lol

 

[Developereo]

interesting noises in 2009:

Dollar's demise plotted by oil producers, China and France, report says - Telegraph

Dude, I don't think that's happening any time soon.

U.S. Planning Troop Buildup in Gulf After Exit From Iraq
[...]
Another part of the administration’s post-Iraq planning involves the Gulf Cooperation Council, dominated by Saudi Arabia. It has increasingly sought to exert its diplomatic and military influence in the region and beyond. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, for example, sent combat aircraft to the Mediterranean as part of the NATO-led intervention in Libya, while Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates each have forces in Afghanistan.
[...]
Iran, as it has been for more than three decades, remains the most worrisome threat to many of those nations, as well as to Iraq itself
[...]
Bahrain’s foreign minister, Sheik Khalid bin Ahmed al-Khalifa, said in an interview [...] that the administration’s proposal to expand its security relationship with the Persian Gulf nations would not “replace what’s going on in Iraq” but was required in the wake of the withdrawal to demonstrate a unified defense in a dangerous region. “Now the game is different,” he said. “We’ll have to be partners in operations, in issues and in many ways that we should work together.”

 

[Nomenclature]

Hi Sir,

it is quite simple. China needs to save EU because if they go in to a recession then China will follow immediately because EU is a big market for China's export oriented economy. With the slowdown in US, a similar situation in Europe will practically lead a death blow to China's high positive balance of trade and the economy will slow down. that coupled with the real estate bubble waiting to burst, the results could be catastrophic. And once that happens, the real inflation will show up and the social upheavel will be very dangerous for the Chinese economy and stability and more importantly for the Chinese communist party. so really trust me on this, CHINA WILL FUND THE EURO BAILOUT. they have no other way. The economic policies of China over these years ensured that they will have to bail out their markets or China sinks with them. Funny but true.

Of course China will fund the euro bailout, even India is funding that. Refusing to help at all will be rather rude. 10 or 20 billion funding is a good gesture.

Export to EU is about 4% of China's GDP. Say half of the value of those exports is added in China, which is almost certainly too high, then export to EU contribute to 2% of China's GDP. If demand from Europe drop by 30%, that will result in a 0.6% drop in China's GDP, which is very bad, but can hardly be called a recession.

Also I don't think real estate bubble bursting and real inflation showing up belongs to the same scenario, given how much money people in China are spending on housing.

 

[lem34]

Dude, I don't think that's happening any time soon.

If you read my post I stated that people are suggesting 25 years but depending on americas actions and market perceptions i thought it would happen within the next 5 to 10 years.

 

[rcrmj]

You will change your mind about it if you will just look the the huge increase in the chinese banks lending during the period of 2008 up to middle of 2010. The huge loans actually went in to real estate more than the bailouts of the smaller businesses in China. So to say that there was no impact will be very naieve because even when the figures are window dressed, every financial analyst in Hong Kong knows that Chinese banks are actually sitting on a crap load of NPA's from the lovely lending gala time. On top of it the hot money flow in to real estate made it a practicaly time bomb ticking away. With the Eurozone crisis if Europe defaults on the soveriegn debts, which will actually happen if the bail out will not be extended, then there is not anymore appetite for the retail investors to fund banks who are actually funding the hot money via lendings in China. So my friend, let us do away with the nice political language and smell the coffee. And also rest assured, CHINA WILL FUND THE EU BAILOUT. They have no other choice!

how the europ bail out relates to Chinese house bubble`? the western house bubble bursted was because like 99% of the purchases were from banks lendings``but the situation in China is rather different just taking my family or any of friends i know for examples like 1/10 property is probably mortgaged rests were all with hard solid cash purchasing, and the Chinese stimulation package in 2009 were mainly invested in infrastructures, raw material and equipment imports from Europ and North America``

and the main purpouse of bailing out of europ has hardly to do with keep our 'customers' happy (even sounds very convenient to most people) however it is a huge opportunity for China to insert its infulences on europ, just like The Marshall Plan by U.S after WWII. in terms of international geopolitics, technology co-operations, economical relationships, green techs/energy and social development China has lots interests in europ.

 

[fd24]

I think when the Chinise should start the ball rolling by asking about the UK and France recent human rights issues. For example discuss the unrest in the UK when there was anarchy and unrest and rioting throughout the country. China wants to make sure no human rights were violated. China wants to make sure Nato didnt behave with false motive when blowing Libya to bits. You think this may be irrelevant? I believe its very relevant - this is how China has always been grilled in the last 20 years by the west. Its now time for the boot to be on the other foot and China should NEVER forget especially now they hold the wad of cash and air of superiority. O my how times have changed.

 

[no_name]

Of course China will fund the euro bailout, even India is funding that. Refusing to help at all will be rather rude. 10 or 20 billion funding is a good gesture.

Export to EU is about 4% of China's GDP. Say half of the value of those exports is added in China, which is almost certainly too high, then export to EU contribute to 2% of China's GDP. If demand from Europe drop by 30%, that will result in a 0.6% drop in China's GDP, which is very bad, but can hardly be called a recession.

Also I don't think real estate bubble bursting and real inflation showing up belongs to the same scenario, given how much money people in China are spending on housing.

Ironically if China manages to maintain sufficient exports to Europe at competitive price and the the Chinese government offers extra financial assiatance to Europe, would it be kind of like an extra tariff, but in this case the Chinese government is paying for it and the manufacturers can remain competitive.