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Sanctioning Turkey backfires Russian economy

damm1t

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Auto Industry

SAINT PETERSBURG: Authorities in Russia on Friday sounded the alarm over Saint Petersburg-based car manufacturers' struggle to receive Turkish supplies after Moscow imposed economic sanctions on Ankara over the downing of a Russian jet.

"If the situation perseveres, companies will be forced to stop production," Saint Petersburg deputy governor Sergei Movchan said, his press service told AFP.

Vedomosti business daily reported earlier this month that the Renault-Nissan alliance and the top Russian car brand Lada had filed complaints with customs authorities about their inability to receive supplies.

A Lada factory assembling Renault and Nissan vehicles stopped for five hours because it had run out of car door locks, RBK news site reported earlier this month.

Renault declined to comment on the situation while Avtovaz - which is controlled by the French-Japanese group Renault-Nissan -- did not respond to AFP's request for comment.

These supply issues come as Russia's crisis-hit automobile industry has seen sales plummet on the back of economic turmoil in the country caused by falling oil prices and Western sanctions over Ukraine.

Last month, car sales were down 42 percent year-on-year.


Textile Sector

The production of T-shirts carrying anti-Turkish slogans in Russia has been delayed by restrictions on fabric imports from Turkey, local media reported this week.

Designer Yekaterina Dobryakova told RNS that she was unable to start making anti-Turkish T-shirts because trucks carrying Turkish fabrics were being detained at the border


“Got a call from RNS asking me whether I planned to make shirts with anti-Turkish themes,” Dobryakova said on her Facebook page. “I said, sarcastically, that as soon as trucks from Turkey are allowed across the border, I will immediately do so.”

Whilst she insists she “had no plans to make T-shirts with the theme of war”, she claimed that “ The trucks have indeed been stopped, and very soon we won’t be able to sew, because all Russian fabric suppliers are working with Turkey, and we have no domestic alternative.”



Food Industry

Inflation races as Russia's Food Bans Push Up Prices.

The introduction of a ban on food imports from Turkey creates a risk of increased food price inflation caused by rising costs due to a change in import destinations, according to a report of the Central Bank of Russia.

“It’s going to be difficult to get around these new bans,” says Irina Koziy, director of Russia’s online FruitNews agency. “Fifty percent of all tomatoes sold in Russia are from Turkey, and about a third of citrus fruits.”

“There have already been disruptions due to the counter-sanctions against Europe, and we were relying on Turkey to fill the gap. Price increases will be the inevitable consequence of all this.”

Russians have already given up their favorite European products, and the new ban on Turkish foods may result in at least temporary shortages of many common fruits and vegetables, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has warned.

The ban on certain food imports from Turkey
will lead to an additional increase in Russian food prices of 0.5 to 1.1 percentage points, the Central Bank of Russia said in a report published Friday.



Energy Sector

Russia is about to lose second biggest natural gas buyer in Europe. Turkey already have plan B, C and D which means annual 16 bl. $ of loss for Russian economy.

On Dec. 2, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Qatar and signed a long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchase agreement. In a similar effort, Turkey's government-owned BOTAS Petroleum Pipeline Corporation announced it will soon ask for bids for a new natural gas pipeline from northern Iraq.

On Dec. 3, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu went to Azerbaijan to discuss expediting construction of the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), which is to supply 16 billion cubic meters of gas to Turkey and Europe annually starting in 2018.

"But we have to be prepared for the worst possibility. That is why I have instructed the Energy Ministry to work on alternatives,” he said, adding that the ministry will study the possibility of increasing the amount of natural gas and LNG bought from Iran and Azerbaijan, among other options.

Moscow's threat to terminate a huge nuclear power plant project in Turkey would also hurt Russia far more than Turkey if implemented. The project dates back to 2010, when the Russian nuclear power company Rosatom signed a $20 billion contract with the Turks to build four new nuclear reactors in the country. Besides this Turkey have other options to make built its nuclear power plant. France, USA and Japan are awaiting on the doorstep.



Tourism Sector

While Russian tourists made up almost 14.65 percent of Turkey’s visitors last September, this figure dropped to 12.44 percent of total visitors in the same month of 2015.

“So a lot of Russian tour operators and travel agencies will suffer significantly,” Milasevic commented.

“And some Russian tourists are creative and do not want to refuse traveling to their favorite budget destinations,” she added, suggesting that these tourists will travel to Turkey via other countries like Belarus.

The ban is a typical Russian government reaction, explained Andrey Movchan, director of the Economic Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Center in Moscow, in an interview with Moscow’s independent newspaper, Novaya Gazeta on Dec. 2.

“First, in the face any difficult situation, the government tends to ban something. Then, it may use this crisis to save some foreign exchange for Russia,” Movchan said.

Russian economic affairs commentator Andrei Grunov wrote on Deutsche Welle’s Russian site on Nov.11 that the ban may backfire against Russian interests.

“What’s more, with good pricing, the Turkish tourism industry may still have a chance to make up for fewer Russian tourists next summer, with the help of European holidaymakers.
Europeans who do not want to holiday in Egypt or Tunisia because of the threat of terror may go to Turkey anyway -- they may not prefer Spain because of the higher prices there.”

“Turkey is likely to find tourists from other countries to replace the ones lost from Russia,” Movchan continued. The same would be true of Turkey’s metal imports from Russia, and even for the large gas supplies purchased from the country, Movchan said


Trade between Two

Russia buys $6 billion in goods from Turkey, but it also sells to Turkey $9 billion of goods, apart from natural gas. And sanctioning Turkey will cost Russia 3 more bl. dollars which is difficult to replace for a Russia under sanctions of Europe and the Usa. But it's not the same for Turkey.
 
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How about a link, damm1t mate?

But fun read, Tay.
 
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Ur lazy, LOL. Links are important for thread readability. They scare some trolls off too!

Besides, this piece would have complemented your other thread with Kasparov well!

Read you later, Tay.
 
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R u really out of ur mind.Its turkey whose tourism is hit.

Russians already have plan B, it's said Russian tour agents will send them over Belarus destination, nobody can stop them coming to Turkey. Mark my words.
 
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Russians already have plan B, it's said Russian tour agents will send them over Belarus destination, nobody can stop them coming to Turkey. Mark my words.

Even if they could stop every single one of 4 million Russian tourists coming to Turkey which is nearly impossible as you said, it still wouldn't make that big of an impact on Turkey's economy. In fact It would hurt ordinary Russians more than Turks since Russian tourists can be replaced by giving incentives to tour agencies in other countries etc... while Turkey as a destination cannot be replaced by Russia since no country can offer what Turkey offers: affordable and high quality beach tourism.

Same thing goes for pretty much every sector sanctined by Russia. Russian auto industry need cheap and high quality spare parts from Turkey. Russian tourism agencies cannot operate without having Turkey as a destination. Russian economy cannot afford losing Turkey as a gas importer.

The bottom line is Turkey have alternative for pretty much everything Russia has to offer either as an exporter or as an importer while the same thing cannot be said for Russia, which is a country whose economy is already crumbling under sanctions. Any economic action against Turkey by Russia will hurt Russia more than it hurts Turkey.
 
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Putin sanctioned Turkey or Russia by doing this ?o_O
 
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Russian economy is not in the state of sanctioning important country like Turkey. But I am wondering what is happening to those farmers who used to export their products to Russia.
 
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But I am wondering what is happening to those farmers who use to export their products to Russia.

The State redirects products to alternative agroexport markets or domestic market. Domestic market food prices decrease which is good for citizens. In both case you can minimize the damage.
 
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Tricky stuff those sanctions, huh?
Under sanctions itself Moscow is now cutting off its remaining markets
essentially letting its economy run internally, I.E. on fumes, more or less!

Economic suicide by uncontrolled temper & Let's hope arms deal save the day?

Maybe Putin should hire an economist or two, Tay.
 
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