SAC - FC-31 Grey Falcon Stealth aircraft for PAF : Updates & Debate

[casual]

Depends on your missions & requirements.

If your Forces decimated enemy defence & gain Air-Superiority. Then you will see Stealth Aircfraft carrying payloads like this.

Just like J-20 5th Gen Stealth-Fighter also have external pylons
View attachment 816782View attachment 816783View attachment 816781

Those are fuel tanks for ferrying the plane over long distances. They aren't ever used in combat missions.

 

[Daniel808]

Just for clarification, when you say production, are you talking about production as 150 total units built from beginning of serial production, or a 150 build rate per year? I had been under the impression J-20 output was ramping up to somewhere around 40/year.

Yes, from beginning. 150+ is Total units right now deployed in China's Air Force (PLA-AF) Active Service.

In 2021 alone, J-20 Production line capacity is somewhat around 48-52+ Units/year. With 8th Batch J-10C production lines moved to Guizhou (GAC AVIC), and Production Lines from New Chengdu (CAC AVIC) Facility, it would reach 72-96+ units/year for sure.

They really pumping up J-20 Production rate, as it's categorized by China's Air Force (PLA-AF) as urgent needs. if not they wouldn't moved J-10C Production lines to Guizhou (GAC AVIC) after they finished 7th Batch & Pakistani (PAF) Order

 

[MH.Yang]

For a couple of reasons, Russia and the Israeli state have close relations. For example, Russia allows IAF to bomb unopposed in Syria as long as they do not harm Russians. This is why, despite having modern SAMs, the Syrian Air Defense is using decades old SA-5s against the attacks.
And while Iran and Russia are not enemies, you could call them geopolitical rivals with some converging interests, similar to Iran and Turkiye. They delayed sale of S-300 for years and since then no major sales outside of infantry rifles have been made.
There have been repeated reports of Iranian military officials asking Russians for Su-30/35 and from all the reports I've seen they best thing Russia offered was Su-27SK from the 90s.

But to keep on topic, IMO IRIAF should make serious efforts to try to obtain the J-31 in large numbers to replace it's ancient fleet. Issue will be lack of cash as China seems to be less open to payment with oil.

Chinese people welcome oil payment.

But I don't think the Iranian govt will allow China to enter the Iranian military field.

After invests US $400 billion for Iran, China is bound to have a great influence on Iran's economy. The Iranian govt must need other forces to balance China's influence.

The Iranian govt will certainly buy fighters from Russia, not China.

 

[EpiiC]

U.S. military and industry officials believe that once the J-31 enters service, it will likely be more than a match for existing fourth-generation fighters like the F-15 Eagle, F-16 Fighting Falcon, and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. They suggest that the capability of the J-31 against the newest fighters, such as the U.S. F-22 and F-35, would depend on factors such as numbers of platforms, quality of pilots, and capabilities of radars and other sensors.

Possibly better than 4th gen US planes but likely outdone by f-35 and f-22.

 

[ProudPak]

U.S. military and industry officials believe that once the J-31 enters service, it will likely be more than a match for existing fourth-generation fighters like the F-15 Eagle, F-16 Fighting Falcon, and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. They suggest that the capability of the J-31 against the newest fighters, such as the U.S. F-22 and F-35, would depend on factors such as numbers of platforms, quality of pilots, and capabilities of radars and other sensors.

Possibly better than 4th gen US planes but likely outdone by f-35 and f-22.

The white man really is under the skin of people here. They always think the white products are superior. Yet have no knowledge other than hyped up marketing

 

[EpiiC]

The white man really is under the skin of people here. They always think the white products are superior. Yet have no knowledge other than hyped up marketing

U really think f-31 is better than F-35?

 

[Luosifen]

Which PAF squadrons would be 1st priority for the FC-31?

 

[tphuang]

Yes, from beginning. 150+ is Total units right now deployed in China's Air Force (PLA-AF) Active Service.

In 2021 alone, J-20 Production line capacity is somewhat around 48-52+ Units/year. With 8th Batch J-10C production lines moved to Guizhou (GAC AVIC), and Production Lines from New Chengdu (CAC AVIC) Facility, it would reach 72-96+ units/year for sure.

They really pumping up J-20 Production rate, as it's categorized by China's Air Force (PLA-AF) as urgent needs. if not they wouldn't moved J-10C Production lines to Guizhou (GAC AVIC) after they finished 7th Batch & Pakistani (PAF) Order

There aren't 150 in service right now. Probably 100 based on recent counting of serial numbers and units we know about. My guess the current production rate is around a 40 a year and on the way to 50 a year. This might go up higher in the coming years, but they will need to keep optimizing and improving production line.

It's a huge deal to be able to produce J-20 this quickly already.

U.S. military and industry officials believe that once the J-31 enters service, it will likely be more than a match for existing fourth-generation fighters like the F-15 Eagle, F-16 Fighting Falcon, and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. They suggest that the capability of the J-31 against the newest fighters, such as the U.S. F-22 and F-35, would depend on factors such as numbers of platforms, quality of pilots, and capabilities of radars and other sensors.

Possibly better than 4th gen US planes but likely outdone by f-35 and f-22.

All this is paper talk. F-22 has 50% availability rate. It could not even fly off the ground when a big hurricane struck one of its based in NC and ended up damaging a whole bunch of them. And it's only getting most costly to maintain and less available as we step further away from its production ending date. The USAF decision to stop F-22 production is turning out to be a a huge disaster.

We'd have to see what J-31 looks like to get a better understanding of its stealth and overall capabilities. It looks to be the best approximation of F-35 you can find with the exception of having 2 engines instead of 1. The T/W ratios are about the same. The configurations are very similar. Based on the prototypes, J-31 production quality looks close to J-20 and F-22 and below that of F-35. Stealth wise, it looks very similar to F-35 in shaping from front and sides. It definitely has more issue in the rear compared to F-35, although F-35 is also less stealthy from rear than F-22. Unless they can fix the rear and improve production quality, I would expect J-31 to be less stealthy than F-35, but still very stealthy from most angles. In terms of electronics, it should be very well designed to use passive and LPI active sensors like J-20 and F-35. So from most aspect, it's competitive with F-35, but theoretically worse in stealth. Depending on what J-31 is fighting with, that may or may not overcome those differences.

Keep in mind that J-31 should still eat 4th gen aircraft for lunch. There is a huge gap between aircraft with high level of stealth and modern situation awareness/networking vs those that don't. So in a battlefield, things like numbers, availability, endurance, cap time and supporting aircraft will matter a lot. J-31 does not need to take down too many F-35s to be victorious. It just needs to out last F-35s and take out a good chunk of non-stealthy aircraft like tankers, AWACs and 4th generation aircraft. It's far easier to take out F-35 when they return to their flight deck of air base for maintenance rather than taking them out while they are still flying. So when certain people say that J-20 or J-31 aren't as stealthy/capable as F-35, that really completely over looks other aircraft in the theater. 5th generation aircraft are larger threats to other aircraft than they are too each other.

For PAF, the best case scenario is if IAF ends up purchasing Su-57 as its "5th generation" aircraft. The worst case scenario is if IAF ends up purchasing F-35. With the former, PAF will have a pretty large qualitative advantage. With the latter, PAF will need a little more help from PLAAF in ways to counter.

By the way, land version of FC-31 will never be available for a while. I'm guessing at least 5 more years before land version of FC-31 join service, so earliest export will probably be in 2029 to 2030 range.

 

[Beast]

For a couple of reasons, Russia and the Israeli state have close relations. For example, Russia allows IAF to bomb unopposed in Syria as long as they do not harm Russians. This is why, despite having modern SAMs, the Syrian Air Defense is using decades old SA-5s against the attacks.
And while Iran and Russia are not enemies, you could call them geopolitical rivals with some converging interests, similar to Iran and Turkiye. They delayed sale of S-300 for years and since then no major sales outside of infantry rifles have been made.
There have been repeated reports of Iranian military officials asking Russians for Su-30/35 and from all the reports I've seen they best thing Russia offered was Su-27SK from the 90s.

But to keep on topic, IMO IRIAF should make serious efforts to try to obtain the J-31 in large numbers to replace it's ancient fleet. Issue will be lack of cash as China seems to be less open to payment with oil.

Close r/s? Russia and Israel nearly go into war over a Russia down AWACS as Israel EW caused Syria air defense to down a Russia plane. They don't each other eye to eye. Israel enjoy close r/s with US which something Russian are wary of.

 

[Beast]

Chinese people welcome oil payment.

But I don't think the Iranian govt will allow China to enter the Iranian military field.

After invests US $400 billion for Iran, China is bound to have a great influence on Iran's economy. The Iranian govt must need other forces to balance China's influence.

The Iranian govt will certainly buy fighters from Russia, not China.

Absolutely disagree with you. After signing the USD 400 billion deal, it is even more imperative for Iran to get Chinese arms and allow barter trade to reduce waste on forex exchange rate. Oil to trade for weapon. Advantage is on Iran side.

Iranian are no fools just to take some unsatisfactory weapon just to reduce leverage on others. They will buy what is good for them.

 

[MH.Yang]

Absolutely disagree with you. After signing the USD 400 billion deal, it is even more imperative for Iran to get Chinese arms and allow barter trade to reduce waste on forex exchange rate. Oil to trade for weapon. Advantage is on Iran side.

Iranian are no fools just to take some unsatisfactory weapon just to reduce leverage on others. They will buy what is good for them.

Pakistan is a neighbor of Iran, and the two countries are not closely related. Considering the special relationship between China and Pakistan. If there is a conflict between the Pakistan and Iran, how can Iran ensure the right to use Chinese fighters?

Iran is sure to buy Russian fighter planes and only favor China economically. That is to balance Russia's influence through China, and contain Pakistan's diplomatic tendency. In turn, Iran also can use Russia to balance China's influence.

 

[BigMelatonin]

Close r/s? Russia and Israel nearly go into war over a Russia down AWACS as Israel EW caused Syria air defense to down a Russia plane. They don't each other eye to eye. Israel enjoy close r/s with US which something Russian are wary of.

Disagree, they did not even come close to conflict. All Russia did was deliver S-300 to Syria which it doesn't even allow to be used against Israeli aircraft. Since then the heads of the Israeli state have repeatedly visited Russia to cooperate on "regional issues."

Bennett extends Russia trip over Shabbat after ‘warm’ Putin talks run long

First meeting between leaders seen as key in keeping Russia-Israel ties on track following departure of Netanyahu; talks said to have focused on Syria, Iran

www.timesofisrael.com

Pakistan is a neighbor of Iran, and the two countries are not closely related. Considering the special relationship between China and Pakistan. If there is a conflict between the Pakistan and Iran, how can Iran ensure the right to use Chinese fighters?

Iran is sure to buy Russian fighter planes and only favor China economically. That is to balance Russia's influence through China, and contain Pakistan's diplomatic tendency. In turn, Iran also can use Russia to balance China's influence.

Well that's too bad them because Russia is definitely not selling anything, and it's not for a lack of interest on Iran's part.

Israel and Russia coordinate arms sale preventing deals with Iran

Ariel Bulshtein, adviser to the prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, has announced that Israel has refused to sell weapons to Georgia, at Russia's request. He also stated a month...

www.middleeastmonitor.com

Like I said, the J-31 is the ONLY option Iran has for a good 5th generation fighter.

 

[IblinI]

the J-31 is the ONLY option Iran has for a good 5th generation fighter.

are you referring to J-35? Because J-31 as a program may not existed anymore.

 

[MH.Yang]

Disagree, they did not even come close to conflict. All Russia did was deliver S-300 to Syria which it doesn't even allow to be used against Israeli aircraft. Since then the heads of the Israeli state have repeatedly visited Russia to cooperate on "regional issues."

Bennett extends Russia trip over Shabbat after ‘warm’ Putin talks run long

First meeting between leaders seen as key in keeping Russia-Israel ties on track following departure of Netanyahu; talks said to have focused on Syria, Iran

www.timesofisrael.com

Well that's too bad them because Russia is definitely not selling anything, and it's not for a lack of interest on Iran's part.

Israel and Russia coordinate arms sale preventing deals with Iran

Ariel Bulshtein, adviser to the prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, has announced that Israel has refused to sell weapons to Georgia, at Russia's request. He also stated a month...

www.middleeastmonitor.com

Like I said, the J-31 is the ONLY option Iran has for a good 5th generation fighter.

Iran is not without access to Chinese weapons. As early as the Iran Iraq war, Iran purchased a large amount of equipment from China, including missile production lines. However, unlike missiles, fighters need long-term technical support from exporting countries. Therefore, Iran govt will certainly consider the stability of diplomatic relations.
It is not that China refuses to sell J35, but that the Iran govt is afraid to buy J35.

 

[BigMelatonin]

are you referring to J-35? Because J-31 as a program may not existed anymore.

Isn't J-35 carrier based version of J-31?

Iran is not without access to Chinese weapons. As early as the Iran Iraq war, Iran purchased a large amount of equipment from China, including missile production lines. However, unlike missiles, fighters need long-term technical support from exporting countries. Therefore, Iran govt will certainly consider the stability of diplomatic relations.
It is not that China refuses to sell J35, but that the Iran govt is afraid to buy J35.

As far as I know they have not approached China for any aircraft, rather as you said they keep going to Russia fruitlessly.