Russia's space program in decline, China's leaping forward: leaked US intel says

[beijingwalker]

Russia's space program is crumbling because of US sanctions and the rise of SpaceX, but it's being replaced by China's rapid growth, leaked US intel says​

Sinéad Baker

Apr 26, 2023, 11:14 PM GMT+8

• Russia's space program is declining thanks in part to sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine.
• That's according to leaked US intelligence, which also seemed to list Elon Musk's SpaceX as a factor.
• China, meanwhile, is making worrying progress in its space race with the US, the intel said.

Russia's space program has been diminished, and will likely continue to be over the next ten years, due to sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine and the rise of SpaceX, according to leaked US intelligence documents seen by The Washington Post.

At the same time, China's efforts to dominate near-space are progressing at worrying speeds, the documents said.

One of the documents, from a cache allegedly leaked by Massachusetts Air National Guard Jack Teijeiro, said that severed Western partnerships and disrupted supply chains had "very likely" hampered the Russian space program's ability to generate funding, the Post reported.

In addition,"foreign customers have canceled planned launches on Russian [rockets] and other space-related activities, eliminating a key revenue stream," the document said.

One document seemed to point to Elon Musk's SpaceX as a factor, noting that a US company was now certified to transport astronauts to the International Space Station, something Russia had previously charged between $75 million and $85 million an astronaut to do.

The documents added that Russia's space program has been in decline since at least 2020.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, many companies have stopped doing business with the country, and governments around the world have put in place sanctions to prevent it from importing certain materials and components, particularly those that would help it make weapons.

This means that Russia has been "unable to easily obtain space-grade components," forcing production delays of military and civilian satellites, one of the documents said.

Russia started deprioritizing making its own components in 2014 "because superior Western technology was readily available," it said. Now it's looking to China for help, according to the leaked intelligence.

While Russia's space program is suffering, China's is booming, the documents said.

China has recently built its own station and NASA warned that it wants to claim resource-rich parts of the moon.

China has also doubled its number of satellites, to over 700, since 2019, Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman said during a news conference last week, with more than a third used for intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance.

The leaked US documents suggest that China would use those satellites in a conflict with Taiwan, the self-governing island that China considers part of its own territory.

This would include China using its satellites to jam other communications and intelligence satellites, and to "destroy ballistic missile early warning satellites," the documents said.

Both China and Russia have also developed the ability to use missiles to destroy satellites in space, the Post noted.

Russia's space program is crumbling because of US sanctions and the rise of SpaceX, but it's being replaced by China's rapid growth, leaked US intel says

Western sanctions and competition from Elon Musk's SpaceX are hurting Russia's space program, but China is growing as a threat, leaked US intel said.

www.businessinsider.com