Russia's 5G fighter to be '3 times cheaper than foreign analogs

[prototype]

what is the criteria to b called a 5th generation,is it only stealth,ef is a much better plane than jsf but still jsf is a 5th gen,but ef is not

 

[SBD-3]

I dont know about the cost of the radar. The complete package will be available for between 90-120 million USD. From what I know, the Radar will be one of the most advanced features of the PAK-FA.
The costs might have reduced because of expertise and new production strategies. Russia has been researching this for decades and they always knew if they want success then they have to use the money in the most efficient manner.

Based on the current industrial infrastructure, I dont think India has the capability to produce beyond 35-50 jets a year. I dont know about Russia. 500 is no small order and Russians would get their variant a little sooner than India.

PAK-FA is not in production yet so what kind of production strategies?
US and China are doing the same US raptor program dates back to late 80s while China has been busy since early 90s
that would be an remarkable achievement if india is able to produce 3 5th gens a month
here is a lot size for F-22
1998 Planned Production Lots
Lot Sizes
Contract Award
(Calendar Year)
Aircraft are to be delivered approximately two years after contract award.

Production Representative Test Vehicles (PRTV)
2 1998
[FY1999]
Lot 1
(PRTV) 6 1999
[FY2000]
Lot 2 10 2001
[FY2001]
Lot 3 16 2001
Lot 4 24 2002
Lots 5-11 36 per year Yearly 2003-2009
Lot 12 29 2010


2006 Planned Production Lots
Lot Sizes
Contract Award
(Calendar Year)
Aircraft are to be delivered approximately two years after contract award.

Production Representative Test Vehicles (PRTV)
2 1998
[FY1999]
Lot # Lot Size
Lot 1 10 2001
Lot 2 13 2002
Lot 3 21 2003
Lot 4 22 2004
Lots 5 24 2005
Lot 6 24 2006

Lots 7 20 2008
Lot 8 20 2009
Lot 9 20 2010

 

[Avatar]

PAK-FA is not in production yet so what kind of production strategies?
US and China are doing the same US raptor program dates back to late 80s while China has been busy since early 90s
that would be an remarkable achievement if india is able to produce 3 5th gens a month

Omg, I was talking about efficiency. Aircrafts produced in Russia or India are definitely cheaper than USA. US also had a scheme where different parts for the F-22 for schemed to different states of the country (to promote employment) which increased the cost even further. The cost that is quoted is obviously the cost of the final production AC and not the prototype

I did not know China was involved in Raptor program. Lot of new things to learn around here I still dont see any 5th gen AC's with the Chinese. I guess the stealth is so advanced even the Chinese dont realize they have it

Dont compare USA's program with Russia. When US made the F-22, they were the first ones. They already had the worlds best AF, and they did not have time constraints. It always takes more time to do something the first time, and technology has become more efficient in the last decade.

Lastly, I said 35-50 is the MAXIMUM output I can think of. We have no information on the production plans. I was only replying to someone who said it should take less than a decade for production of 500 FGFA's

 

[SBD-3]

It's 30 Billion dollars and that is just the esstimated cost, the final cost may soar well above the esstimated cost. You also fail to understand the economics of building aircraft in Russia and building an aircraft in the US; cheaper labor and efficiency is why the pa-fa is realatively cheap, build the same aircraft in the US and the price will atleast double or tripple.

well being a student of economics....what we have read that you can achieve cost effectiveness due to
1) Economies of Scale
2) Econonies of Scope

so what you are implying is that PAK-FA will be mass produced in such a large number that will effectively bring down its cost? well for this they will have to create external demand (export sales) which obviously will be a risky game and I honestly dont think Russians will do it in their national interest. The latest reports that Russia will not make anyfurther collaborations with India on this front (which makes sense as Russians now enjoy ample national reserves-Thanks to 2007-2008 oil boom).
2) economies of scope will depend on specialized the industrial base is in Russia and what is labour skill level there in Russia here is a comparison

even though russian have improved, but their productivity is still merely 1/3rd of US

and look at the secret of Chinese growth

cost of investment is also high in russia, so what could be implied is that investment in inductrial base would have been sluggish so support to defence industry would also have been sluggish as well

coming to second point of production and cost efficiency of cheap labour what you are talking about
in economonics, the relationship of Technology, Capital and Labor is defined by Cob-Douglus production function
For production, the function is

Y = A * (L^alpha) * (K^beta) * (M^gamma) = f(L,K,M).
or more traditionally
Y = A * (L^alpha) * (K^beta)
where:

Y = total production (the monetary value of all goods produced in a year)
L = labor input
K = capital input
A = total factor productivity (technology)
α and β are the output elasticities of labor and capital, respectively. These values are constants determined by available technology.

Now when we solve this using a cost constraint C=wL+rK (also called Langrangian Approach). The simple implication suggests that cost will shoot up thus deceasing the optimal production if
Labour increases (in efficency of labour)
Captial increases (cost of investments in economy)
w=wage rate increases due to inflation (which has historicall been higher in russia than USA due to staggering increase in money supply even for this single year at 37% YoY as per bloomberg) (you may refer to wage rate spiral for more details if you want)
r= cost of capital increases (which is also the cost of funding the russian policy rate in russia at 3.5% as compared to US at 0.25%)
k= capital (cost of investments in the country)
so which implys that on general, diplomatically speaking the russian economy is not as efficent as the US economy the cost of production should be higher.....(I dont have access to the defence statistics so that i may access it in a better way)

 

[SBD-3]

Omg, I was talking about efficiency. Aircrafts produced in Russia or India are definitely cheaper than USA. US also had a scheme where different parts for the F-22 for schemed to different states of the country (to promote employment) which increased the cost even further. The cost that is quoted is obviously the cost of the final production AC and not the prototype

I did not know China was involved in Raptor program. Lot of new things to learn around here I still dont see any 5th gen AC's with the Chinese. I guess the stealth is so advanced even the Chinese dont realize they have it

Dont compare USA's program with Russia. When US made the F-22, they were the first ones. They already had the worlds best AF, and they did not have time constraints. It always takes more time to do something the first time, and technology has become more efficient in the last decade.

Lastly, I said 35-50 is the MAXIMUM output I can think of. We have no information on the production plans. I was only replying to someone who said it should take less than a decade for production of 500 FGFA's

btw China was not involved in Raptor program I was referring to JXX

 

[DeathGod]

1. well being a student of economics....what we have read that you can achieve cost effectiveness due to
1) Economies of Scale
2) Econonies of Scope

1) Economies Of Scale

Well your assertion that if Russia has to acheive economies of scale then she has to export is based on what?

Why do you consider that the total order of around 1k airplanes ( by conservative estimates) will not be enough for Russia to gain economies of scale?

I reject your hypothesis on the basis that you dont have a reasonable basis for it.

2) Economies Of Scope

I appreciate that you know your economics.Maybe what you are suffering from however is confirming evidence bias ( tenndency of human mind to look for evidence which supports the hypothesis while ignoring the evidence that might go against it)

Aircraft production is a niche industry. Productivity difference in steel, energy etc will not matter as these are not needed in substantial amounts to cause a significant offset.

Russia has a niche for producing low cost and effective aircrafts. They have experience people which are their biggest asset and which can easily overcome small offsets of productivity that you have produced.

Your analysis would have been worthy had Russia being on war footing in which case we would be comparing two economies.
In this case however you have only looked at the macro level without dwelling into the nitty gritty which unfortunately has driven you to make a wrong comparison.

Russia can produce PAKFA in a cost effective way is without doubt, whether it is 3 times cheaper or not remains to be seen.

 

[lhuang]

Off topic but: I hate economics with a passion.

**** economists, hate you all.

 

[Kinetic]

what is the criteria to b called a 5th generation,is it only stealth,ef is a much better plane than jsf but still jsf is a 5th gen,but ef is not

Overall EFT has better capabilities than JSF except stealth.

 

[SBD-3]

1) Economies Of Scale

Well your assertion that if Russia has to acheive economies of scale then she has to export is based on what?

Why do you consider that the total order of around 1k airplanes ( by conservative estimates) will not be enough for Russia to gain economies of scale?

I reject your hypothesis on the basis that you dont have a reasonable basis for it.

2) Economies Of Scope

I appreciate that you know your economics.Maybe what you are suffering from however is confirming evidence bias ( tenndency of human mind to look for evidence which supports the hypothesis while ignoring the evidence that might go against it)

Aircraft production is a niche industry. Productivity difference in steel, energy etc will not matter as these are not needed in substantial amounts to cause a significant offset.

Russia has a niche for producing low cost and effective aircrafts. They have experience people which are their biggest asset and which can easily overcome small offsets of productivity that you have produced.

Your analysis would have been worthy had Russia being on war footing in which case we would be comparing two economies.
In this case however you have only looked at the macro level without dwelling into the nitty gritty which unfortunately has driven you to make a wrong comparison.

Russia can produce PAKFA in a cost effective way is without doubt, whether it is 3 times cheaper or not remains to be seen.

ummmm...well what I was able to get on production was this

A total of 500 aircraft are planned with option for further aircraft. Russian Air Force will have 200 single seated and 50 twin-seated PAK FAs while Indian Air Force will get 200 twin-seated and 50 single seated FGFAs.

Sukhoi director Mikhail Pogosyan has projected a market for 1000 aircraft over the next four decades, two hundred each for Russia and India and six hundred for other countries

If PAK-FA is a "Russian Raptor" then there will be two situations
1) Russkies flooding the market with PAK-FAs. But , But, But we will have to consider what countries will be buying those additional PAK-FAs and who many will have the money to buy those PAK-FAs as the PAK-FA cost will reduce to 120-100 Million (Which is approximate cost for JSF as well) if and only if there are orders. We have seen the price tag problem with EF and Rafael. JSF has addressed the situation by committing countries to purchases so they at least know with certainty that how many they will make, so cost is determinable, I haven't seen any country other than India and Russia showing interest yet....(you can provide me with one if you know).
2) Even Chinese wont be exporting JXX ( as per discussions of different Chinese posters) which makes sense as US does not export Raptors....Russkies will know this fact the the more the export, more the vulnerability of their aircraft to tech espionage. I thinks Russkies have understood this, leading to no more 5th Gen co-operation with India other than committed so this factor is also considerable

about confirmation bias, I have put my cards on table......if you have some to show....you're more than welcomed.

and yes one more thing.....I would appreciate if you conduct a thorough analysis rather than just giving comments..

 

[DeathGod]

BLAH BLAH BLAH

Dude tell me something...

1) Your evidence of Sukhoi not achieving economies of scale is that Sukhoi director says that he is projecting 600 orders for other nations and that because other nations wont be giving any orders ( or Russian wont be selling them) they wont be able to acheive economies of scale....

This is utter nonsence and sorry to be harsh but your critical reasoning needs improvement. When does the total number of order determine that economies of scale will be achieved or not. Without knowing the number of aircrafts Sukhoi wants to produce every year how can you say that economies of scale will be acheived or not?

How can you say economies of scale will not be acheived when you dont know if PAK-FA installations will be used to produce essential parts for other future generation aircrafts?

There are to many unknowns and well the way you have provided the Sukhoi director's projected production numbers as a way to determine the numbers to acheive economies of scale provides further evidence of confirming evidence bias along with a misleading correlation error (For eg Some content that NYSE falls and rises as the yak milk production falls and rises in Afghanistan)

Please broaden your view.

BTW you havent given evidence against the economies of scope argument I made.

 

[SBD-3]

Dude tell me something...

1)

Your evidence of Sukhoi not achieving economies of scale is that Sukhoi director says that he is projecting 600 orders for other nations and that because other nations wont be giving any orders ( or Russian wont be selling them) they wont be able to acheive economies of scale....

This is utter nonsence and sorry to be harsh but your critical reasoning needs improvement.

When does the total number of order determine that economies of scale will be achieved or not

.

Without knowing the number of aircrafts Sukhoi wants to produce every year how can you say that economies of scale will be acheived or not?

How can you say economies of scale will not be acheived when you dont know if PAK-FA installations will be used to produce essential parts for

other future generation aircrafts?

There are to many unknowns and well the way you have provided the Sukhoi director's projected production numbers as a way to determine the numbers to acheive economies of scale provides further evidence of confirming evidence bias along with a misleading correlation error (For eg Some content that NYSE falls and rises as the yak milk production falls and rises in Afghanistan)

Please broaden your view.

BTW you havent given evidence against the economies of scope argument I made.

sorry to keep you waiting....but I have some other more important things to do as well.......

1)its all messed up....plz be more clear to explain what you want to say

2) well after reading 1st two paragraphs. Pardon me for not being able to define economies of scale for you. Well I will explain it

conomies of scale, in microeconomics, are the cost advantages that a business obtains due to expansion. They are factors that cause a producer’s average cost per unit to fall as scale is increased.

or for your convenience here is a diagram as well

3) A person with normal mathematics would know that Avg per Year=Total Production/Number of Years now if you had paid attention to the statement of Sukhoi Director

Sukhoi director Mikhail Pogosyan has projected a market for 1000 aircraft over the next four decades, two hundred each for Russia and India and six hundred for other countries

A very gross estimate is 1000/40= 25 AC per year

4-Waooooow 6th gen????

5- If you would have cared to have a close look at the sources of report...they are from Russian Ministry.....and btw I have not performed any regression analysis, these are graphical results and regression analysis is used for relationship determination and estimation you're funny....ok well I have given you my interpretation if you can bring something against this then...I would agree with you....But by just commenting and commenting and commenting.

and lastly

Originally Posted by hasnain0099 View Post
BLAH BLAH BLAH

should I consider it a sign of incompetence???

 

[aimarraul]

ummmm...well what I was able to get on production was this



If PAK-FA is a "Russian Raptor" then there will be two situations
1) Russkies flooding the market with PAK-FAs. But , But, But we will have to consider what countries will be buying those additional PAK-FAs and who many will have the money to buy those PAK-FAs as the PAK-FA cost will reduce to 120-100 Million (Which is approximate cost for JSF as well) if and only if there are orders. We have seen the price tag problem with EF and Rafael. JSF has addressed the situation by committing countries to purchases so they at least know with certainty that how many they will make, so cost is determinable, I haven't seen any country other than India and Russia showing interest yet....(you can provide me with one if you know).
2) Even Chinese wont be exporting JXX ( as per discussions of different Chinese posters) which makes sense as US does not export Raptors....Russkies will know this fact the the more the export, more the vulnerability of their aircraft to tech espionage. I thinks Russkies have understood this, leading to no more 5th Gen co-operation with India other than committed so this factor is also considerable

about confirmation bias, I have put my cards on table......if you have some to show....you're more than welcomed.

and yes one more thing.....I would appreciate if you conduct a thorough analysis rather than just giving comments..

russians may have their own calculations
if i am russian ,i will start developing an export version once i earn the first barrel of gold from india.with dominant performance ,lots of countries will purchase small numbers.

 

[SpArK]

Off topic but: I hate economics with a passion.

**** economists, hate you all.

Same here.. dont understand the diagrams and all..

 

[gambit]

The cost of one F-22 is $350 million dollars ....F-22 is a failed project and a shame on US congress see the video before commenting



YouTube - Wastefull F-22 fighter Jet By GOP Congress Rachel Maddow

I have. Rachel Maddow did not do proper diligence as a journalist. She is now more entertainer than journalist. That hack piece have been debunked many times over. Maddow is as clueless as you are.

 

[SBD-3]

russians may have their own calculations
if i am russian ,i will start developing an export version once i earn the first barrel of gold from india.with dominant performance ,lots of countries will purchase small numbers.

Well....I put two reasons
1) what are the historically good customers of Russia...China, India, Iran, Some African Countries...Russia does not have many markets to compete realistically...
1) North America......No Sir!
2) Europe........No Sir!
3) Middle East........Syria, Libiya, and who else? ( Syria's financials are not good)....A possible customer may be libiya
4) UAE......US
5) KSA......US
6) Iraq.......US
what remains?
ok lets move to Africa
1- Strong compitition from China.
2- Lack of financial resources.
So I really dont expect signifacant orders from here as well

Lets move to Asia
1- China.......No Sir
2- Pakistan...... Not possible
3- India........Already in the Bag.
4- Bangladesh.......No potential
5-Taiwan......US
6-South Korea....US
7-Japan.....No Chance.
8-Australia......No Chance.
9-Malaysia......potential customer.
10-Indonesia.....potential customer.
and yes
11-Iran.....US Sanctions and possible reverse engineering threat

now lets move to
South America
1- Venezuela......Chinese competition and possible US intervention
2- Brazil........Went with Rafales......yet I ll place them as potential customer
3-Chile......US customer.
4-Argentina.....Lack of finances.
If I am missing some countries plz update me