Russia Wagner Mutiny | Updates & Discussions

[forcetrip]

So? That mean nothing, he were there to talk, but again, if that work, why this??



Then you would still do it on the down low, not like this.

I mean again, unless you want the world to think you are an idiot and you can't control your subordinate. Because I can't think of anything worse than saying "You had lost control" than someone doing a coup......



Army have MOS for everything, every position you can do in a battlefield you would have a MOS for it.

Merc and army have the same line, have the same job, you just pay merc better.

The reason to hire merc is not because you can do stuff illegally, Wagner is not Delta Force or Spetsnaz, you don't do behind the line illegal wet work........ The reason to hire Merc in modern war is to free up your own troop, which means you can put more tooth to tail ratio with your army focus more on combat troop instead of logistical support. That's why PMC were hired and that's why most PMC are focusing on Combat Support role..

You don't hire PMC to fight war, this is not a TV show, this is not a game, I don't think even Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia can do that, again, 225k a year per head, 50,000 fighter Wagner uses, that's 11 billion a year, just these paying wages, that's 1/4 of the entire Russian military budget.


I didn't confirm anything, I said If I were the Ukrainian, I will exploit this for sure. I am not Ukrainian, nor do I have any command responsibility within the Ukrainian armed force.

Edited.

2) Even if Putin was thinking of replacing or removing Shoigun he is here to stay even after the fact that he "may" have bombed Wagner forest base.

 

[kingQamaR]

That is true to a point. It is a big step. And you might be right. The commander or general who got Mariupol was fired and Prigozhin hired him into Wagner. There could be a lot of these cases but overall we do not see the uprising that some people are salivating about. Again I could be wrong and it will get a lot clearer in a few weeks.

History is littered with warlords switching sides when it looks like the tide of a war is changing. This isn't just infighting, Prigozhin knows the situation in Ukraine is dire for Russia. He will also know that there is backing in the Kremlin for a move to remove Putin. He will also know that his life depends on how he plays his hand in the next few days. This isn't the ranting of a drunk Russian, this is significant change in Russia. Let's hope it is change for the better, because it may not be.

 

[Foinikas]

I think it was an American general in COD who gone rogue, wasn't that General Shepard? I still remember he killed "Ghost in the final scene on MW2 and I am still quite shocked it.

There were a lot of coups and rogues in CoD

 

[kingQamaR]

Question: How many men does Wagner have by now? They had a big boost the last year,through volunteers and forced consctriptions of convicts. Also,the question is,how many units of the Russian Army have allied with Wagner.

No idea how Prighozin will survive after this,unless the whole system collapses and a new government is installed. The Ukrainians must be having a party now.

No, the opposite I believe. Kremlin insiders view him as an uncouth arriviste (which is saying something, coming from them!). He needs the common people on his side, so is appealing directly to them.

 

[jhungary]

Edited.

2) Even if Putin was thinking of replacing or removing Shoigun he is here to stay even after the fact that he "may" have bombed Wagner forest base.

I knew that already, my repsonse was geared toward this, I assume you mistype on the last post.

There were a lot of coups and rogues in CoD

Yeah, but you said "rogue general" specifically........

I don't remember any rogue general beside Sheperd.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Ukraine will need to time its response to this carefully - pointless rushing in now - just let the situation brew for a while - let Russia move forces from occupied Ukraine to take on Wagner - let there be more instablility - maybe a bit of shooting , and then find a weak spot and exploit it.

Putin has sent all his praetorian guards that were used to protect him, to Ukraine to wage war and he got most of them killed. Putin is very exposed right now. Very exposed.

 

[Viet]

Question: How many men does Wagner have by now? They had a big boost the last year,through volunteers and forced consctriptions of convicts. Also,the question is,how many units of the Russian Army have allied with Wagner.

No idea how Prighozin will survive after this,unless the whole system collapses and a new government is installed. The Ukrainians must be having a party now.

Prigozhin had about 50,000 men at the height at the battle of Bakhmut. He said he lost 20,000 men. So estimated 30,000 men survived. Now he will try not only to size tanks and other Russia military assets, he will try to recruit men from regular Russia army. He needs lots of tanks, lots of men. Moscow is guarded by an elite army group.

 

[Foinikas]

"The elder said that the collapse of Russia, in spite of her apparent strength and the cruelty of the authorities, would take place very quickly. At first the Slavic peoples will be split off, then the Union republics will fall away: the Baltic, Central Asia and Caucasian republics and Moldavia. After this central power in Russia will weaken still more, so that autonomous republics and regions will begin to separate themselves. Then a great collapse will take place: the power of the Centre will cease to be recognized de facto by the autonomous regions, which will try to live independently and will no longer pay any attention to orders from Moscow. The greatest tragedy will be the seizure of Siberia by China. This will not take place through military means: in consequence of the weakening of the authorities and the open frontiers, masses of Chinese will move into Siberia, will snap up property, enterprises and flats. By means of bribery, intimidation and agreements with the authorities, they will gradually take control of the economic life of the towns. Everything will take place in such a way that one morning the Russians living in Siberia will wake up in a Chinese state. The destiny of those who remain there will be tragic, but not hopeless. The Chinese will deal cruelly with every attempt at resistance."

 

[reflecthofgeismar]

- Putin (2022): This is not a war
- Prigozhin (2023): "This is not a coup"
- Putin (2022) we will take Kyiv in 3 days
- Prigozhin (2023) we will take Moscow in 3 days

BTW - This isn't a coup, it's a special culinary operation.

"It is all going according to plan" - Putin remains a master strategist

 

[jhungary]

Ukraine will need to time its response to this carefully - pointless rushing in now - just let the situation brew for a while - let Russia move forces from occupied Ukraine to take on Wagner - let there be more instablility - maybe a bit of shooting , and then find a weak spot and exploit it.

Putin has sent all his praetorian guards that were used to protect him, to Ukraine to wage war and he got most of them killed. Putin is very exposed right now. Very exposed.

I personally think this coup (or whatever you call it) would fall apart. Prigozhin have no way to threaten Putin, if he had, he would not choose Rostov-On-Don as his first objective, he would most definitely choose Moscow.

But taking ROD also show you one thing, Prigozhin probably is using the war in Ukraine as leverage to get what he needed from Putin, depends on who is going to brink first, Prigozhin may get his way (which mostly involved replacing Shoigu or senior position on the table) or Putin may get his, which mean Prigozhin either leave or go to jail. But this is going to take a quite lasting effect on Russia military. After this, if I was a normal Russian soldier, I wouldn't know who to trust.

 

[Ali_Baba]

I personally think this coup (or whatever you call it) would fall apart. Prigozhin have no way to threaten Putin, if he had, he would choose Rostov-On-Don as his first objective, he would most definitely choose Moscow.

But taking ROD also show you one thing, Prigozhin probably is using the war in Ukraine as leverage to get what he needed from Putin, depends on who is going to brink first, Prigozhin may get his way (which mostly involved replacing Shoigu or senior position on the table) or Putin may get his, which mean Prigozhin either leave or go to jail. But this is going to take a quite lasting effect on Russia military. After this, if I was a normal Russian soldier, I wouldn't know who to trust.

Yeah - it is difficult to see how this will work out - but I do think ROD is Wagners "oblast" now and will form the base of operations for Wagner going forward. The Russian Army will struggle to take on Wagner in ROD and win - the Russian Army lacks the manpower to take on an beat Wagner right now.

Taking / occupying Moscow will be difficult - which is why i think they have selected ROD as a safe base to ensure they have a logistics supply line from ROD to whatever they want to do next.

There is fighting going on in Voronezh right now... ( BBC News flash .. )

Question - has Russia just blown up the oil depot at Voronezh to try and slow/stop the Wagner advance ???

Russia uprising latest: Army conducting ‘combat activities’ in Voronezh, governor says​

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www.ft.com

Head of Russia's Voronezh region says Russian army taking action there amid Wagner mutiny

The governor of Russia's Voronezh region said on Saturday that the army was taking "necessary military measures" in the region as part of a counter-terrorist operation declared after an armed mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group.

www.deccanherald.com

 

[MeFishToo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672545818220322817

 

[LeGenD]

chechens take Mariopoul region with ease.

Ukrainian forces could not be resupplied in Mariupol. It still took 81 days and heavy use of thermobaric artillery systems to take the city.

Wagner stood out in Bakhmut, a city where Ukrainian forces can be resupplied.

Wagner is a far more capable force than the grossly overrated TikTok chechen clowns operating in convenient conditions.

 

[Foinikas]

Ukrainian forces could not be resupplied in Mariupol. It still took 81 days and heavy use of thermobaric artillery systems to take the city.

Wagner stood out in Bakhmut, a city where Ukrainian forces can be resupplied.

Wagner is a far more capable force than the grossly overrated TikTok chechen clowns operating in convenient conditions.

Is Prigozin the guy with the SS tattoos or was it another guy?

 

[REhorror]

"The elder said that the collapse of Russia, in spite of her apparent strength and the cruelty of the authorities, would take place very quickly. At first the Slavic peoples will be split off, then the Union republics will fall away: the Baltic, Central Asia and Caucasian republics and Moldavia. After this central power in Russia will weaken still more, so that autonomous republics and regions will begin to separate themselves. Then a great collapse will take place: the power of the Centre will cease to be recognized de facto by the autonomous regions, which will try to live independently and will no longer pay any attention to orders from Moscow. The greatest tragedy will be the seizure of Siberia by China. This will not take place through military means: in consequence of the weakening of the authorities and the open frontiers, masses of Chinese will move into Siberia, will snap up property, enterprises and flats. By means of bribery, intimidation and agreements with the authorities, they will gradually take control of the economic life of the towns. Everything will take place in such a way that one morning the Russians living in Siberia will wake up in a Chinese state. The destiny of those who remain there will be tragic, but not hopeless. The Chinese will deal cruelly with every attempt at resistance."

Is this the Protocols of the Ancient Elder of Zion?