Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[RescueRanger]

Towards Mariupol?

Yes

 

[LeGenD]

Well sir, it does not mean it has to take 3 to 5 days. Russia is not NATO with so many different types of hardware designated for different tasks. Ukraine is very familiar with Russian weapons and knew some of the weaknesses. Ukraine has s300 Baghdad had poor AA systems. You need to realize NATO used initially at time of invasion around 300K troops while Russia has only sent around 60K along with few brigades of chechnyan forces against a million plus Ukraine soldiers(reserves including). If you wanna talk about geography then talk with some logic, US fired 800 cruise missiles alone at time of invasion Russians in 5 days have only fired 300 most of them of soviet era. Other NATO countries fired missiles are separate from these 800 numbers.

Sir, you also need to keep in account that Putin does not want whole Ukraine that's his whole concentration is till Kiev. If he wanted he would surely have went west side.

Also not to forget that Baghdad was taken by NATO but it took a lot more time to actually claim whole Iraq.

Here is a proof how iraq war went,

"Another estimate numbers the Army and Republican Guard at between 280,000 and 350,000 and 50,000 to 80,000, respectively,[134] and the paramilitary between 20,000 and 40,000.[135] There were an estimated thirteen infantry divisions, ten mechanized and armored divisions, as well as some special forces units. The Iraqi Air Force and Navy played a negligible role in the conflict. "

I do NOT think that this war could be concluded in a few days although Putin administration expected it to. It is true that Russia was able to invade Ukraine from 6 different directions including through Belarus, and Kyiv was easy to approach given its location but regime change could not be carried out yet. 60,000 Russian troops on the ground in Ukraine is old figure - Russian force composition inside Ukraine would be much larger by now with militias in the mix.

NATO is a much better equipped force than Russia (without any doubt) but factors such as geography and regional political realities will influence the course of war in any landscape at any point in time (humanly constraints also apply). NATO could commit 90,000 troops on the ground to invade Iraq in 2003; other troops were in Navy (Sea) and Air Force (Air) and do not count in this equation. S-300 systems would not have made any difference for Iraq when up against a force like NATO - this is useless point. Iraqi order of battle was to draw NATO forces into urban environments (cities) and select geographical locations where they would be able to ambush invading forces, and they were able to pull this off. Iraqi are determined fighters as well (For perspective: Iran could not take Basra in 8 years). Now keep in mind that NATO could invade Iraq through Kuwait only (1 direction); Iran, KSA and Syria were not accessible to NATO in this matter. Turkey allowed only special forces of NATO to pass through (airborne movements). In spite of this regional political situation, NATO toppled Saddam regime in 21 days.

NATO force composition on the ground was expanded inside Iraq in response to Iraqi insurgency when it expanded in scale and scope in the (2004 - 2008) period.

 

[313ghazi]

No choice. Close Air Support means exactly that -- CLOSE.

Battlefield details are lost with increasing altitude and speed. Above 10K ft or roughly above 3000 meters, I can have the "God's Eye" view of the area, but it is difficult, if not impossible, for me to figure out the IFF ground lines, in other words, I cannot ID out Friend from Foe. So I have no choice but to descent and slow down, which put me into MANPADS' operational parameters.

Sometimes a Friend will call a 'danger close' delivery so I have to know where/when to pickle. To be 'danger close' mean you are at risk from my munition. That mean I have to descent and slow down to visually see where you want the delivery. Further, I have limited munition, so the more precise the delivery, the greater the odds of your survival, so again, I have to descent and slow down.

The advantage that jets have over helos is acceleration after delivery. If you look closely at how a helo need to accelerate, especially from hover, you will see the helo tilt slightly nose down to use rotor air to push the aircraft forward. There is a slight pause in the motion. Jets do not have that delay. As soon as I pickled, I will throttle forward will pick up speed immediately, giving me an increase odds of escaping out of the MANPADS' operational parameters. Does not guarantee, but I need every edge I can get. If there is sufficient lower altitude, I will even dive to gain speed and if there are topos like low hills nearby, diving into the valleys between the hill tops can give me cover from the MANPADS' IR seeker. So what happens is that my engine's IR is being strobed from the terrain and my flares adds to the IR sources. The F-16's engine is actually seen more as an IR stream while the A-10 guys are seen as diffused blobs, so the F-16 is worse off.

There are a lot of hypothetical scenarios where bombers can deliver bombs that are 'smart' enough to take on CAS, but that day is not yet here. So for now, CAS must be low and slow.



Slow ride, take it easy
Slow ride, take it easy
Slow down, go down, got to get your lovin' one more time
Hold me, roll me, slow ridin' woman you're so fine

Thanks. That was really informative.

 

[RescueRanger]

• Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls for no-fly zone to stop Russian bombardment, but White House says US is not considering such a move.
• At least 70 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in a Russian artillery attack in Okhtyrka, a city between Kharkiv and Kyiv, says a local official.
• ICC prosecutor says he plans to launch investigation into alleged war crimes, crimes against humanity in Ukraine.
• High-level talks between Kyiv and Moscow end with no agreementexcept to keep talking.
• Civilian death toll now stands at 352 people, including 14 children, Ukraine’s health ministry says.
• More than 520,000 people have fled Ukraine since Russian invasion began, UN says.

Kharkiv has seen some of the heaviest fighting in this entire conflict, expect the actual number UAF casualties to be much higher.

 

[alimobin memon]

I do NOT think that this war could be concluded in a few days although Putin administration expected it to. It is true that Russia was able to invade Ukraine from 6 different directions including through Belarus, and Kyiv was easy to approach given its location but regime change could not be carried out yet. 60,000 Russian troops on the ground in Ukraine is old figure - Russian force composition inside Ukraine would be much larger by now with militias in the mix.

NATO is a much better equipped force than Russia (without any doubt) but factors such as geography and regional political realities will influence the course of war in any landscape at any point in time (humanly constraints also apply). NATO could commit 90,000 troops on the ground to invade Iraq in 2003; other troops were in Navy (Sea) and Air Force (Air) and do not count in this equation. S-300 systems would not have made any difference for Iraq when up against a force like NATO - this is useless point. Iraqi order of battle was to draw NATO forces into urban environments (cities) and select geographical locations where they would be able to ambush invading forces, and they were able to pull this off. Iraqi are determined fighters as well (For perspective: Iran could not take Basra in 8 years). Now keep in mind that NATO could invade Iraq through Kuwait only (1 direction); Iran, KSA and Syria were not accessible to NATO in this matter. Turkey allowed only special forces of NATO to pass through (airborne movements). In spite of this regional political situation, NATO toppled Saddam regime in 21 days.

NATO force composition on the ground was expanded inside Iraq in response to Iraqi insurgency when it expanded in scale and scope in the (2004 - 2008) period.

You cannot ignore s300 FYI. Plus, you cannot say iraqi are solid fighters while Ukrainians are not I may have misjudged you though. At least we agree to the point that war cannot be concluded in few days & the fact that putin misjudged but in war things can go south...

 

[patero]

What people til now still don't understand is that

If Russia need this long and this much resource to conquer (Still conquering) Ukraine, how well would they perform when they are inevitably face with a Ukrainian insurgency that are almost certain to guarantee that is coming?

Notice that it took the US 4 months to invade and control the entire Iraq, I don't even think it is possible at this point to control the entire Ukraine. Which mean Western Ukraine is going to be like Fallujah and Tikrit, only with EU supplying and financing a insurgency from there. And we lost 136 men for the entire 4 months of campaign, Russia most likely lost 10 times that and it is still ongoing. And we have around 400,000 troop in the entire Iraq, Russia have what left of those 200,000

This is going to be an insurgent haven, and it get even worse, most of the Ukrainian can speak Russian and know their culture which means any insurgent activities is going to be worse because you can't tell which one is the good guy, which one is the insurgent, as they all speak Russian, they all look the same, and they all live with a similar culture. Which speak for my own COIN experience, make your task 10 times harder. (well, probably not 10 times, but still a lot)

And then we aren't fighting the insurgency while we are being sanction, we have steady supplies of food, ammunition and replacement. Russia is trying to fight an insurgency which is resource intensive and manpower intensive while under sanction..

Prospect is not good.

Great post, I completely agree. Just to add to Russia's growing list of problems, a build up of NATO forces in the Baltics, Poland and Romania will also force Russia to reinforce its borders, which will now include the Belarussian border now that they have basically declared themselves a vassal state.

Even if NATO isn't directly involved on the ground in Ukraine, it will make it harder for Russia to reinforce those forces already deployed if they have to worry about 'NATO 'aggression'.

 

[LeGenD]

You cannot ignore s300 FYI. Plus, you cannot say iraqi are solid fighters while Ukrainians are not I may have misjudged you though. At least we agree to the point that war cannot be concluded in few days & the fact that putin misjudged but in war things can go south...

A volley of Tomahawk cruise missiles will make short work of big ticket items such as S-300 in any landscape at any point in time. Tomahawk cruise missiles are revisited/updated/improved from time-to-time. Block 4 were mass produced after 2001 and Block 5 is under production now.

 

[khansaheeb]

Some poles said that many armored forces were assembled on Ukrainian land only a few kilometers from the Polish border. All equipment is marked with the letter V.
Is this the reason for the first deployment of the NATO rapid response force?
Did the Russian army go from Belarus to the border between Poland and Ukraine?
If the border between Ukraine and Poland is blocked, does NATO have other channels to support Ukraine?


View attachment 819773

It makes sense, the Russians should have sealed all the borders at the initial stage of invasion to ensure no supplies get through. NATO is bound to find or create holes to ensure good supply routes are available.

 

[RescueRanger]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498371276427177997

They were on the border with Poland last night on AJN asking to leave.

 

[Messerschmitt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498459994320216064

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498574127556440064

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498577632266539011

 

[khansaheeb]

Turkey thinks it is a member of Naughtyo:-

Turkey warns countries not to pass warships through straits

Turkey has warned both Black Sea and non-Black Sea countries not to pass warships through its Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was reported as saying on Monday.

www.reuters.com

Turkey warns countries not to pass warships through straits​

Reuters

1 minute read

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu attends a news conference with Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib in Beirut, Lebanon November 16, 2021. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir/File photo
ANKARA, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Turkey has warned both Black Sea and non-Black Sea countries not to pass warships through its Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was reported as saying on Monday.
The 1936 Montreux Convention allows Turkey to limit naval transit of its straits during wartime but has a clause exempting ships returning to their registered base.
"We implemented what Montreux says, and we will do so from now on. There has been no request for passage through the straits until today," the state news agency Anadolu reported Cavusoglu as saying.
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At least four Russian ships are currently waiting on Turkey's decision to cross from the Mediterranean.

 

[RescueRanger]

Turkey thinks it is a member of Naughtyo:-

Turkey warns countries not to pass warships through straits

Turkey has warned both Black Sea and non-Black Sea countries not to pass warships through its Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was reported as saying on Monday.

www.reuters.com

Turkey warns countries not to pass warships through straits​

Reuters

1 minute read

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu attends a news conference with Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib in Beirut, Lebanon November 16, 2021. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir/File photo
ANKARA, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Turkey has warned both Black Sea and non-Black Sea countries not to pass warships through its Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was reported as saying on Monday.
The 1936 Montreux Convention allows Turkey to limit naval transit of its straits during wartime but has a clause exempting ships returning to their registered base.
"We implemented what Montreux says, and we will do so from now on. There has been no request for passage through the straits until today," the state news agency Anadolu reported Cavusoglu as saying.
Report ad
At least four Russian ships are currently waiting on Turkey's decision to cross from the Mediterranean.

Turkey has played this very well if you realise that the only foreign military vessels in the Black Sea are Russian and no foreign military vessels will now be allowed pas Haydarpasa

 

[Dustom999]

Turkey has played this very well if you realise that the only foreign military vessels in the Black Sea are Russian and no foreign military vessels will now be allowed pas Haydarpasa

Most Russian vessels can still be allowed as they are allowed to reach their home ports!

 

[Messerschmitt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498580468895293440

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498578656611946496

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498580764824596484

 

[Darius77]

Turkey has played this very well if you realise that the only foreign military vessels in the Black Sea are Russian and no foreign military vessels will now be allowed pas Haydarpasa

Actually, this helps Russian navy as like you said only Russian ships now dominate the whole Black Sea which in now a defacto Russian lake. Turkish public opinion is pro-Russian, if you read the latest PEW poll, Turks have some of most anti-American views in the region along with Egypt, Pakistan and Iran. Jordan also surprisingly had a 61% poor view of Americans.