Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497917763364564994

 

[Paul2]

So what does that mean? First attack with 3 prongs 100 of kilometre apart would mean they have separated their logistic zone and support zone, which mean each prong would have their own staging area, logistic and resupply element, air/ground support element. In other words, the invading force is diverse.

This could mean good thing and bad things for Ukrainian. Good thing is, Russia force is diluted, instead of facing a giant fist of 50,000-70,000 troops, Ukrainian is facing 3 front with 20,000 troop each, diluted troop concentration is susceptible to Ukrainian harassment, plus, these troop are supposed to secure key city and infrastructure. Which call into doubt whether it is doable for them to work, not to mention the risk of being defeated in detail, which if one arm failed, the whole operation gone kaput (unless there are reinforcement, which I would assume)

This is a very un-Russian strategy.

I ready translated Soviet military doctrine books a bit. Soviet doctrine was all about "one giant, slow armour, artillery, meatball" formation to outnumber, and outgun everything in front of it.

 

[zartosht]

The only reason Turkey entered NATO was because Stalin had territorial claims on Turkey and wanted to establish Russian military control of the straits.

The Montreux agreement and the Straits Convention are in effect with the signature of Russia. (Guarantor states Turkey, Bulgaria, France, England, Japan, Romania, Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Greece) It is the only international water in which the US navy cannot show an effective naval presence, thanks to its contain.

The main purpose of the Montreux Convention is to reconcile the requirements and benefits of international maritime trade with these rights, while preserving the sovereign rights of the Republic of Turkey, which is a coastal state. In other words, a new transition regime from the Straits was accepted with Montreux, and the responsibility for the implementation and supervision of this new regime was given to Turkey.

In time of war, if Turkey is not a belligerent, warships shall enjoy full freedom of passage and round-trip (transportation) in the Straits, under the same conditions as those specified in Articles 10 to 18. However, warships of any warring State shall be prohibited from passing through the Straits.

Warships belonging to warring States, littoral or non-Black Sea, that have left their mooring ports may return to these ports.

Warships of the Warring States are prohibited from attempting any seizure, exercise of right of control (visit) and any other hostile act in the Straits.

Article 19 does not constitute an obstacle for ships of the Russian Black Sea navy to return to their bases.

Don't make yourself ridiculous by talking about things you really don't know.

I am very familiar with the clauses of montreux.

I never said Turkey wasnt allowed to technically close it in certain circumstances.

however the montreux declaration itself has no precedent in international law. It was basically a "might makes right" smash and grab by NATO .

IT is standard and long established, and written into UN charters that such bodies of waters are international waterways..

nothing i said was untrue. Turkey is on extremely shaky legal ground when it comes to it. The only reason they have been able to enforce this illegal claim is NATO bullying. There is absolutely nothing in terms of international law, norms or precedent like the montreux.

The US absolutely goes out of its way to send its navy all over the world close to the territorial waters of enemy countries in the name of "protecting free international trade"

There is no more laws apparently. Its become the law of the jungle. I will repeat that when Iran openly builds her nukes, we should demand for our safety a similar status to monteux/straight of hormuz.

You can continue to serve as NATO's nuke absorbers, and battleground to save the precious blue eyed blonde "civlized" euros the western media is killing themselves over.

 

[Paul2]

The second thing I noticed is that if the Russian sole goal is to relieve Ukrainian government, then they would have done what we had done during Iraq war, we concentrate our effort to go into Baghdad and secure the government and then fan out and secure the individual objective (like TV station, airport, port, village and so on) But Russian did not do that, suggesting their motive is territorial gain. Ie capture and occupied as many land as you can.

My believe is that they are pressuring Kivy to do more landgrab in the south. South has more sea access, and valuable arable land.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497965254030069762

 

[jhungary]

Yes of course it makes absolutely sense from logically perspective what you have written here. You are absolutely right in the next days we will see a clearer picture what way the Russian military and Regime will go.

But regarding the escalation, from watching and seeing and reading everything on Putin and his Russia, I don’t see anything logically or rationally, neither the performance and art of war of his military on the ground nor his decision for an invasion. In my opinion, this men has a higher potential for escalating the ladders for a limited nuclear exchange, if he looses his face through a revolution or mass protests in Russia or through more and heavily loses in this ongoing war.

Have good day, by the way I served in Bundeswehr, I participated last year in Territorial Force Battalion level exercise. This year it seems out of order because of the current situation.

Well, anything goes, there are nothing to say like Putin lost it completely and decided to end the world "type" of scenario will not happened. The thing is, Putin is every name you call him but stupid. He knows by ending the world, whatever he was doing to get to that point at that instant would become meaningless.

If he is about to lose (Which again, as my assessment said, I highly doubt that) he would find a way to pull troop out and spin it on something like his victory, he don't need to convince the world it is, he don't care, you can see how he blatantly lies about the invasion to see he don't care about his world image, he just need to convince Russian that was his victory.

And nice for the Bundeswehr, I served with them in Afghanistan, they are a good bunch of people, I hope Germany change the stance after this war and see that the security future is in Germany hand not anyone else. Hope you have a nice day.

 

[Indian Libertarian]

What is Russia’s endgame now? They’ve already had so many losses both military and economic…

 

[jhungary]

Welcome back J

China encouraged Putin's misadventure and now that Russian ego has been shattered the Chinese have a pliant sanctioned Russia at its mercy.

Thanks

I think it's more like a lump of unwanted cancer landed on Chinese doorstep.

Would Chinese even want to touch that pile of.....? I don't know. But as far as I see, this is going to become a liability of China.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497964697357729796

 

[jhungary]

My believe is that they are pressuring Kivy to do more landgrab in the south. South has more sea access, and valuable arable land.

But then their southern invasion has stalled.

In military term. We will say Russian invasion has run out of momentum.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497966628385923077

 

[jhungary]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497964697357729796

That's actually an Ukrainian victory if this is the actual term of peace deal...

EDIT: Well, depends on what you mean by "Eastern Ukraine"?

 

[Wergeland]

Scott Ritter is a former UN arms inspector in Iraq. An American, but he doesn't tow the American line. Very good interview for all those who still believe ' Mad man Putin attacked Ukraine' narrative.

There was many Americans who were against the Iraq war. They were labeled traitors and anti-democratic.

But who was right in the end? Iraq ended up being a distaster for America and beginning of US-decline.

Why is it so hard for warmongering fascisct to understand that war should always be the last option. If politicians are not clever enough to find non-violent political solutions to problems then we have to elect real politicians who can master the true Art Of War.

Ukraine War is a tragedy. Russia may or may not succed with reuniting Ukraine with Russia. Regardless this war will have huge ripple effects on the Russian conciousness.

 

[Messerschmitt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497970621501919243

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497970966294630401

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497971316934287363

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497971262966091782

 

[jhungary]

This is a very un-Russian strategy.

I ready translated Soviet military doctrine books a bit. Soviet doctrine was all about "one giant, slow armour, artillery, meatball" formation to outnumber, and outgun everything in front of it.

Yes, as I said some post (I forgot where and when) ago, Russian doctrine dictate a giant massive Amour assault which would be hard for Russian to keep, logistic wise, if they are split up in 3.

What Russia doing now is more or less the US way to conquer a country, use multiple front, shock and awe, like we did with Iraq in the first Iraq war.