Foreword
Okay, so, I’ve got an email from a PDF member ask me to comment on the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022. I am not going to say who, but the same member asked me to comment on the US withdraw from Afghanistan last year, I wasn’t about to comment on that as I see no military value to talk about a military withdrawal. But I think this war has a lot of military value people can learn from and this is the first conventional war the Russia fought post Soviet Union, so I am going to give you a no-BS assessment on the situation
For those who know me, you know what I do for a living (Or what I used to do), and for those who don’t know, I was a former US Army Infantry Officer, served 2 tours in the middle east. And I like to comment all things military.
This post will look at Military situation in Ukraine, and I may also answer some of the most commonly asked question. But majority this will be like the Military Report I used to write.
Russian invasion of Ukraine, 2022.
Introduction
On 0500 Europe Eastern time, 24th February 2022, Russian start a special military operation. The Russian invaded Ukraine with 3 Arms, over the North via Belarus , Over the south from Crimea Occupied Territories, and Over the East via Donetsk and Luhansk. Russian force are said to be between 180,000 to 200,000 Ukrainian force are said to be between 210,000-240,000
Tactical Consideration for Ukraine
Ukraine has 3 Tactical Considerations
- Defend of Capital Kyiv
- Defend of the Western Corridor (From Brest to Odessa) to keep the logistic afloat
- Avoid being capitulation of government.
Tactical Consideration for Russia
There are also 3 tactical considerations for Russia
- Occupied Kyiv
- Locate and Secure the current Ukrainian government
- Install a Pro-Russian Government
Strategic Consideration for Ukraine
There is only one, repel the Russian Invasion
Strategic Consideration for Russia
There are 2 strategic considerations for Russia.
- Occupy the country
- Overturn the Government of Ukraine
Current Situation in Ukraine
As of 27 February, 2022 5pm AEST, Russia have launched a 3 pronged attack, A north arm attack across the Belarusian Border. That force is currently surrounding Kyiv. Another prong is from the south, Now currently outside Kherson, and the Amphibous element are landed in both Odessa and Mariupol, and the third prong is attacking from the East, surrounding Kharkiv and Sumy, and also launching a double envelopment on Mariupol
Refer to this map here
My Appraisement
First of all, this is the fourth day of war; the first thing to notice is that none of the Ukraine City has fallen to Russia. That is surprising for me, because I am expecting some heavy fighting in the Eastern and Southern city, and with overwhelming infantry, air and artillery support, Russia should have been able to at least secure Kharkiv or Odessa which is closest to Russian starting point.
Another issue I have found is that the land Russia travel is quite short. Considering Soviet Armor assault usually travel 10 km per hour, which mean by now, they should have covered more than 450KM (15 hours a day, with 9 hours rest) Judging by the map, there are no where near that 450km limit.
Now going back to General Detail, Russia attack along the North/South and East axis, preceded by Missile Strike (approximately 200 cruise missile was launched) follow by CAS and Helicopter gunship strike. With Armor column closing the gap and Airborne unit secure important objective (such as Antonov Airport).
Now, this is different than conventional US attack where US would launch a single spear Armor attack supported by gunship and CAS, which tell me 3 things.
- Russia is in a hurry
- Russia is try to maximize territorial gain
- Russia is splitting their command and support structure.
So what does that mean? First attack with 3 prongs 100 of kilometre apart would mean they have separated their logistic zone and support zone, which mean each prong would have their own staging area, logistic and resupply element, air/ground support element. In other words, the invading force is diverse.
This could mean good thing and bad things for Ukrainian. Good thing is, Russia force is diluted, instead of facing a giant fist of 50,000-70,000 troops, Ukrainian is facing 3 front with 20,000 troop each, diluted troop concentration is susceptible to Ukrainian harassment, plus, these troop are supposed to secure key city and infrastructure. Which call into doubt whether it is doable for them to work, not to mention the risk of being defeated in detail, which if one arm failed, the whole operation gone kaput (unless there are reinforcement, which I would assume)
The Bad thing is, the general area Ukraine is focusing on is going to be huge. And as a general rules, if you defend every inch of your country, you defend nothing.
The second thing I noticed is that if the Russian sole goal is to relieve Ukrainian government, then they would have done what we had done during Iraq war, we concentrate our effort to go into Baghdad and secure the government and then fan out and secure the individual objective (like TV station, airport, port, village and so on) But Russian did not do that, suggesting their motive is territorial gain. Ie capture and occupied as many land as you can.
On the other hand, Ukraine seems to be playing a territorial defence role, where each element was assigned a sector to protect, I personally will not choose this except for Kyiv, if I am outgun and outnumber, I will choose a more dynamic defence rather than a static defence, organise your Brigade into mobile brigade, conduct hit and run on the Russian invading route. That way I can protect more with fewer troops. But then I will have to concede that in order to do that, Ukraine intelligence must be up to the task, maybe they think their intelligence is not up to the game? Or maybe they prefer to defend this way? I don’t know.
Another observation from me is that Ukraine process a strong will to fight, so it is highly unlikely that Ukraine will do an Afghanistan. People are staying there, most likely fight to their death.
My Assessment
My first assessment is Russia highly probable underestimate the Ukrainian defence. They either anticipate Ukrainian defence will crumble once they encounter Russian troop, or they have expected a lower capability to hold back Russian Troop. Form the fact that Russia willing to split their operation into 3, it said they expected light resistance
Also I would say Russia failed to capture many first day objective, Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkiv should be the first day objective on the first phase line, all three cities still in Ukrainian hand as of 27 Feb. 22, and I would say Russian schedule is between 48-72 hours late. By now the 3 prongs should have converge over Kyiv by now. The key for Russian operation is speed, as Putin put it, Russia are there to liberate Ukrainian brother and “Demilitarize and Denazify the Neo Nazi regime in Ukraine” and emphasis on the objective being military, not civilian, which mean what Putin is selling is a Crimea style take over. And it won’t work if this operation is taking a long time, because if it take any longer than 2 or even 3 weeks, people will start asking question why the people in Ukraine has not risen up yet
Also, key infrastructure in Ukraine is still on, things like electricity, telephone, internet, TV station and Radio station, which mean Russia have not either destroy/taken over them yet, which also tell you that Russia is behind their schedule, those things should have been targeted within the first 48 hours. Controlling information should be Russian first day objective too.
Another assessment from me is the Russian pre-invasion bombardment is not effective. You can see Ukraine still able to sorties after day 4. As I said many time here before, missile cannot be used to disable enemy infrastructure. By this point, Russia should have obtain complete air superiority because their battle plan depends on Air Mobile Troop, and helicopter is prone to Anti-Air attacks.
My Prediction
First thing first, I don’t believe Ukraine can survive this war, the number from Russia is just too many, too close, there will be heroic defences, but if we took the entire Russia might and compare to Ukrainian might, there are absolutely no contest. Russia currently are using approximately 1/8 to 1/10 of the national force, which mean even if Ukraine be able to fend off the first wave, this 200,000 Russian soldier currently surrounding Ukraine. There are no way they will survive the next, and the next and the next.
On the other hand, how much Russia are willing to give is another issue, because this is not a popular war in Russia, and all the factor give me the impression that Russia has seriously underestimating Ukraine warfighting capability. As this drag on, this is going to be bad for Russia. Yes, theoretically, Russia can send enough soldier to flood Ukraine, but can they do it without public support is another matter, because anything after this 200,000 soldier will require another mobilisation, by then the public would ask why, if this is just a Crimea style take over. It will create problem for Russian draft, and it may also have wide range of protest and push back from Public.
Another issue is we called “War Chest” ie, how much money you can use to wage war. Keep in mind, Russia economy performed quite badly these last 2 years due to COVID, which mean the economy is not going to be good, now with Western sanction, it will further hamper Russia ability to raise money for war, and without money, you get no replacement part, you can’t pay your soldier etc and that will create a whole other morale problem. Current estimation on Russian war chest is 60 billions. Which will probably last them 2 months. After that, money have to some how be raised to continue the war. But that is before Western Sanction kicks in. So the current war chest for Russia is unknown, as Western countries had frozen Russian Asset and cease their debt raising capability and had been kicked out SWIFT.
On the other hand, Ukraine is currently sitting on a better situation than what I expect, or what NATO expected. NATO just announced they will send in Missile, SAM and other supplies to Ukraine 3 days after the war, which suggested that the initial NATO estimation is that Ukraine should have folded within the first 3 days. So no doubt 4 days passed and Russia still has not gain any meaningful ground.
The tradition Russia tactics would suggest a massive bombardment and carpet bombing to city center and military staging point to accelerate their time table, but I seriously doubt they are going to do that, after all these “Brother” speech, because once you send in Tu-95 or Tu-160, then Russian would have no doubt that this is going to target their “brother” This will alter the public narrative.
All in all, as with any invasion, the 7th day is the major point, that’s when your initial LogPak (Logistic Package) runs out, by then they should have been able to set up Forward Arming and Refuelling Point (FARP). Now this is important, because by day 7, they should have set it up beyond the first phase line (after Kyiv) if they still have not taken Kyiv and other objective, then the Russian have to set up their FARP behind their line, which mean they will need to retreat from their position back to FRAP to refuel and rearm, which mean it will further hamper with the time table.
Another issue I can foresee is that looking at the last 4 days, we probably anticipating a insurgency campaign even after Russian conquered entire Ukraine, which in itself is a long time away, I don’t see Ukrainian force drop their weapon and flee across the country, and that is very important, it show us that Ukrainian have the will to fight back. Now, what happened after Kyiv felt or Zelenskyy is captured is unknown, that may hamper the Ukrainian will but that remained to be seen
Common Question
Why NATO is not sending boots on the ground?
NATO direct involvement is a non-starter, because it will play into Putin’s narrative, which would mean the public will support Putin perspective more than they have now. And as I said, Public support is a key to Putin’s operation. Especially if Putin needed a next round of mobilisation.
So, any NATO boots on the ground will expand the war, which make it complicated, and if war expanded, Ukraine will be lost anyway (as said before I don’t think Ukraine can withstand a total invasion from Russia) and the battle will spill over to other NATO member, namely Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Romania.
And Russia will most likely resort to Nuclear Weapon if this happen because there are no way Russia can in turn survive an NATO onslaught
What can Ukraine do to win the war?
Well, the chance of Ukrainians winning this conventional fight is slim, very slim, it’s about 10% chances, it is that slim. But it’s not undoable.
The first thing Ukraine need to do is to keep dragging this on, the longer this war drag on, the longer Russia support aboard, most importantly China, will wean, the Chinese are not that keen on a war between Russia and Ukraine to begin with, as Ukraine is a important strategic partner with China, Chinese first and second carrier are serious Ukraine input and Chinese aviation was helped by Antonov a lot to develop their home grown fighter jet, which mean the longer the war drag on, the bigger of the mess it create, and this won’t go well to China.
Another thing is that as the war drag on, more and more Russia will suffer from the sanction the west have just dished out. Which mean it hamper Russia material and warfighting capability, that inturn interrupt equipment replacement and resupply, to issue such as food, water, fuel and transport?
And finally, Ukraine can make this war as unpleasant to Russian as possible. It wont affect the soldier side because Russian Army is a professional force, but home support largely depends on this is a clean, quick operation, and if Ukrainian can make this war unclean and slow, this will help alter Public Opinion.
Would this war achieve what Russian or Putin want?
No. It will not achieve what Putin want In term of Political and Strategic objective. In fact, it will do the opposite.
First of all, the Casus Belli for Putin is in two. 1.) Ukraine permanently bar form NATO. 2.) NATO stops their eastern expansion.
While Ukraine can be sway into not joining NATO, but NATO will not stop expanding just because Russia said so. In fact, this war will give the country on the fence more stacks to join NATO after seeing the naked aggression of what Russia will do to its perceived enemy. Country like Moldova, Sweden and Finland will probably look at NATO membership to ensure their own survival, BECAUSE of this Russian invasion.
Second of all, this is a no gain operation, because the best outcome for Russia to hope for is a pre-2014 Ukraine, that is pro-Russia, since NATO never had Ukraine (or even intent to have them) which mean this is going to be a status quo, which mean the best Russia can hope for is a draw, and that is if Ukraine did not raise an insurgency and Russia survive this round of Sanction. So literally any other option for Russia is a lost.
Will China invade Taiwan now that they see NATO Inactiveness on Ukraine issue?
Highly unlikely. First of all, China and Taiwan did not share a land border. Which mean whatever timetable China on invading and regain Taiwan is based on their Naval And Air capability, and at this point, China is yet to achieve neither capability to launch an invasion to do so.
Second, China is not Russia, Russia economy is almost bottomed out, sanction on Russia does not really work that good because Russia economy has been stagnate since 2013. Chinese Economy on the other hand, depend largely on European and American market. Sanction on the scale of the one that Russia having is going to reek devastation to Chinese economy. Think about it, if China cannot trade with US, EU and country like Australia, Japan and South Korea, who can they trade with? Africa is not a nice or even tempting market and Middle East are traditional US allies.
Which mean Sanction would be more than enough to deter China from invading Taiwan, at least for now.
The world chooses whose loss is publicized in media , most of Muslim city's cause is shoved into Middle east segment or Page 56 of newspaper , or tiny little square box on news paper
