Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments
- Thread starter T-SaGe
- Start date
- Status
Hassan Al-Somal
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jan 18, 2015
- Messages
- 6,825
- Reaction score
- -37
- Country
- Location
TruthSeeker
PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
- Joined
- Nov 27, 2008
- Messages
- 6,390
- Reaction score
- 3
- Country
- Location
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 25
Jun 25, 2022 - Press ISW
Download the PDFKarolina Hird, Mason Clark, and George Barros
June 25, 5:00 pm ET
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the commanders of the “central” and “southern” groupings of forces in Ukraine on June 24, confirming previously rumored changes reported on June 21.[1] Spokesperson for the Russian MoD Igor Konashenkov stated on June 24 that Commander of the Central Military District Colonel General Alexander Lapin is in command of the "central” group of forces, which is responsible for operations against Lysychansk (and presumably Severodonetsk).[2] Konashenkov additionally stated that Army General Sergei Surovikin, commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, commands the ”southern” group of forces and oversaw the encirclement of Hirske and Zolote.[3] The Russian MoD’s announcement confirms ISW’s assessment from June 21 that the Russian high command is reshuffling and restructuring military command in order to better organize operations in Ukraine, though the Russian MoD statement does not state when the changes occurred.[4] The UK MoD confirmed that the Russian command has removed several generals from key operational roles in Ukraine, including Commander of the Airborne Forces (VDV) Colonel General Andrei Serdyukov and Commander of Russia’s Southern Military District Alexander Dvornikov, who was likely was acting as overall theatre commander.[5] The UK MoD noted that command of the Southern Military District will transfer to Surovikin.[6] The Russian MoD’s statement notably only discusses the center and south force groupings (not the Southern Military District as a whole), but Dvornikov has likely been removed from his previous role.
Russian forces conducted an abnormally large series of missile strikes against Ukrainian rear areas on June 25.[7] The Ukrainian Airforce Command reported that Russian forces fired over 50 ground-, air-, and sea-based missiles at Ukraine and targeted areas in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Khmelmytskyi, Chernihiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[8] The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that six Russian Tu-22M3 bombers departed from the Shaykova airbase in Belarus and launched 12 Kh-22 cruise missiles at land targets in Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv Oblasts, which is the first such launch from Belarus.[9] The Ukrainian Airforce Command noted that Russian forces used sea-based Kalibr missiles against targets in western Ukraine, X-22 and ground-based Iskander and Tochka-U missiles against targets in northern Ukraine, and ONYX missiles and Bastion complexes against targets in southern Ukraine.[10] Ukrainian air defense reportedly shot down many of the missiles, which were likely intended to target critical support infrastructure in areas of Ukraine where there is no direct combat.
Ukrainian intelligence assessed that the Kremlin is continuing covert partial mobilization efforts in support of what it increasingly recognizes as a war of attrition in Eastern Ukraine.[11] Representative of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky stated that the Kremlin recognizes it is waging a war of attrition and is conducting secretive partial mobilization efforts while additionally mobilizing the BARS (Combat Army Reserve of the Country) system and other constant-readiness elements. Skibitsky noted that 105 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are taking part in the war in Ukraine and that Russian reserve capabilities could increase this number to anywhere between 150 and 160 BTGs but did not specify a timeframe for this mobilization. Skibitsky reiterated that the Kremlin’s main goal is to secure control of the entire Donbas and that its secondary priority is consolidation of its control of Kherson Oblast by September 11, when the Kremlin seeks to hold referenda to directly annex territories or create quasi-state “People’s Republics.” The Kremlin intends to conduct a protracted conflict in Ukraine and is seeking to advance mobilization efforts to support long-term military and political goals in occupied areas of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) firmly stated that Belarusian involvement in the war in Ukraine on behalf of Russia remains highly unlikely.[12] GUR representative Vadym Skibitsky stated that Belarusian forces will not attack Ukraine without the support of Russian troops, of which there are approximately 1,500 in Belarus. Skibitsky noted that Belarus has seven BTGs on a rotating basis near the border with Ukraine and that the formation of a Russian-Belarusian joint shock group would take three to four weeks, with two to three weeks needed to simply deploy sufficient Russian forces into Belarus. The GUR’s statement reaffirms ISW’s previous assessments that, while recent Belarusian actions along the Ukrainian border are threatening and likely intended to fix Ukrainian forces in place with the threat of Belarusian action, they are highly unlikely to preempt actual involvement in the war.[13]
Key Takeaways
- The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the leadership of its central and southern groups of forces fighting Ukraine has changed, confirming ISW’s previous assessment that the Russian high command is restructuring the leadership of operations in Ukraine.
- Ukrainian intelligence officials emphasized that Belarus remains highly unlikely to join the war in Ukraine.
- Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces have taken full control of Severodonetsk and are fighting within Lysychansk.
- Russian forces made measured gains to the north and southeast of Bakhmut.
- Russian forces continued unsuccessful attempts to advance southeast of Izyum toward Slovyansk.
- Russian forces continued positional battles north of Kharkiv City.
- Russian forces attempted to strengthen their defensive lines and recapture lost positions on the Southern Axis.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
- Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts);
- Subordinate Main Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
- Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv City;
- Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis;
- Activities in Russian-occupied Areas
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Ukrainian sources confirmed on June 25 that Russian forces took full control of the entirety of Severodonetsk and are making advances on the southern outskirts of Lysychansk. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces are “consolidating” and “fortifying” positions in Severodonetsk, Syrotyne, Voronove, and Borivske following the completion of the Ukrainian withdrawal from Severodonetsk on June 24.[14] Mayor of Severodonetsk Oleksandr Stryuk confirmed that Russian forces have fully occupied Severodonetsk and are now trying to establish order within the city.[15] Several Russian sources additionally posted footage from within Severodonetsk to corroborate claims of control of the entire city, including the Azot industrial zone.[16] Russian forces are fighting within Lysychansk itself and reportedly have reached a mine and a gelatin factory on the outskirts of the city, confirmed by NASA FIRMS data of heat anomalies in the Lysychansk area (see image in-line with text).[17] The Rapid Response Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard stated that Ukrainian positions in Lysychansk are more strategically valuable than previously held positions in Severodonetsk and suggested that Ukrainian forces may seek to launch counterattacks from within Lysychansk, though their ability to do so successfully is likely limited by continued Russian encroachment.[18]
[Source: NASA FIRMS data of heat anomalies at the Lysychansk Gelatin Factory, 48.835612188176746, 38.44200713423625]
Russian forces continued offensive operations to the southeast of Izyum towards Slovyansk but did not make any confirmed advances on June 25.[24] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian troops fought around Bohorodychne, Mazanivka, Dovhenke, and Dolyna, all to the northwest of Slovyansk near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.[25] Russian forces continued to set conditions to resume offensive operations toward Slovyansk from the west of Lyman and fired on Mayaki, Psykunivka, Raihorodok, and Starodubivka, as well as reconnoitering Ukrainian positions in the area.[26]
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
Russian forces continued to fight positional battles for control of their occupied frontiers north of Kharkiv City and shelled Ukrainian positions around northern Kharkiv Oblast on June 25.[27] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces are fighting for control of contested territory around Udy, Tsupivka, Velyki Prokhody, Kozacha Lopan, Vekhnii Saltiv, and Pytomnyk.[28] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces north of Kharkiv City are taking measures to replenish losses, which indicates that Russian forces continue to suffer casualties in attempts to prevent further Ukrainian advances toward the international border.[29] Russian forces continued to conduct air, missile, and artillery strikes on and around Kharkiv City.[30]
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces along the Southern Axis focused on defending their occupied frontiers and conducting local attacks to regain lost positions on June 25.[31] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that an unspecified Russian company tactical group unsuccessfully attempted to regain a lost position in Potomkyne from Vysokopillya in northern Kherson Oblast.[32] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that this was the second attempted Russian effort at regaining Potomkyne.[33] Russian forces continued defensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly attempted to attack Ukrainian positions in Huliapole.[34] The Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Council reported that Russian forces have intensified artillery strikes along the frontline towards Kryvyi Rih in response to Ukrainian advances deep into Kherson Oblast, and Russian forces continued to fire on areas of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, and Kherson oblasts.[35]
Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)
The Ukrainian military leadership is taking measures to centralize guidance for partisan groups to better leverage partisan pressure against Russian occupation efforts. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that the Ukrainian Center for National Resistance is urging Ukrainian citizens in occupied areas to exercise cyber “hygiene” to avoid having mobile communication and internet data collected by Russian intelligence operatives and additionally to effectively organize partisan actions.[36] The Center for National Resistance called for citizens to destroy digital evidence of participation in partisan activities but cautioned against making their digital presence “too sterile” to avoid raising suspicion. Ukrainian Major General Dmitry Marchenko additionally told RFERL that Ukrainian residents of Kherson are hiding weapons and waiting for centralized instructions to take up arms on behalf of the Ukrainian military.[37] The Ukrainian military leadership likely seeks to galvanize and centrally coordinate Ukrainian partisan actions, both to disrupt Russian control and possibly prepare for coordinated operations with conventional Ukrainian forces [38]
The SC
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2012
- Messages
- 32,233
- Reaction score
- 21
- Country
- Location
The allied forces entered the suburb of Lisichansk, in the district of the mine. Melnikova (Matrosskaya).. The offensive is also developing in the settlement. Volcheyarovka.
At the moment, Lisichansk is in the operational environment.
Abdul Rehman Majeed
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2019
- Messages
- 5,103
- Reaction score
- -40
- Country
- Location
'We'll win by end of year': Ukrainian chief defiant amid 'tactical' retreat | ITV News
In an interview with ITV News, the country's Military Intelligence Chief, Kyrylo Budanov, told us the retreat was both 'tactical' and 'organised.' | ITV National News
www.itv.com
'We'll win by end of year': Ukrainian chief defiant amid 'tactical' retreat | ITV News
In an interview with ITV News, the country's Military Intelligence Chief, Kyrylo Budanov, told us the retreat was both 'tactical' and 'organised.' | ITV National News
www.itv.com
'We'll win by end of year': Ukrainian military intelligence chief defiant amid 'tactical' retreat
Saturday 25 June 2022, 11:52am
There is a fear that if the war becomes a protracted stalemate then western interest will be hard to maintain, ITV News Europe Editor James Mates and Producer Jenny Klochko report
Words by ITV News Producer Natasha Tierney
After weeks of heavy fighting in the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk, Ukraine will begin withdrawing its troops to more defendable positions, the Governor of Luhansk announced on Friday.
Russia has controlled around 95% of the Luhansk region for more than a month now, but Ukraine's army has defended the key city of Sievierodonetsk and neighbouring Lysychansk fiercely.
The city now lies in all but ruins, with heavy shelling destroying most infrastructure, and footage from soldiers on the frontline giving an insight into just how close the street fighting has become.
The capture of Sievierodonetsk has been a key strategic goal for Russia throughout this war.
Alongside the capture of Lysychansk - which lies across the river and for now remains under Ukrainian control - it would allow them to take the entire Luhansk area, which, with Donetsk makes up the Donbas region.
On Friday, in an interview with ITV News, the country's Military Intelligence Chief, Kyrylo Budanov, told us the retreat was both "tactical" and "organised", and that he still believes it's possible for Ukraine to win the war by the end of the year.
"In order to achieve a strategic victory, our command decided to regroup on new positions. And I personally believe this decision to be correct," he said.
"The defence of Ukraine has been going on for four months, and the defence of Sieverodonetsk has been going on for a little bit over four weeks. Our forces there will not be destroyed, this will not happen."
"This is only a tactical regroup. And, as you can see, a tactical regroup is going on in Ukraine as a whole. In certain areas of the frontline we are successfully counterattacking, in certain areas of the frontline we are successfully defending," added Budanov.
Despite recent Ukrainian setbacks in the east - caused by Russia's heavy offensive after re-focusing its efforts away from elsewhere in Ukraine to Donbas - Budanov emphasizes that the Ukrainians are making gains elsewhere, most notably on the Southern front, in Russian-occupied Kherson.
"You will have seen that in the Mykolaiv and Kherson direction there is a certain change. It's only a matter of time for Kherson," he says.
"Ukraine will return to its borders of 1991, there will be no other scenarios and we are not considering any other scenarios. Beginning in August, certain events will take place, that will demonstrate to the whole world that the turning point begins to take place."
"I have said it before and I'll say it again - before the end of the year, active fighting will decrease virtually to nothing. We are adamant in our view. We will regain control over our territories in the foreseeable future," he added.
He acknowledges that much of the Ukrainian army's success in this war now hinges on international support, noting the UK's recent offer of military training for 10,000 Ukrainian troops.
Ukrainian troops defend nearly deserted city as war of attrition tests endurance
'They burned': Moscow forces bombed hospital patients who refused to be deported
"The UK's help in the training process is significant - they are giving us high-precision equipment, which requires training. Without it we wouldn't be able to operate it efficiently. This is an excellent example of co-operation and help."
"But we always have a lack of arms - we need more arms," he adds.
With Ukraine losing around 200 soldiers a day in the east, time is of the essence as the battle to maintain control of Lysychansk wages on.
But Budanov remains steadfast in his army's ability to push back Russia's invasion: "Putin will not succeed. This is a tragedy that he led Russia and Ukraine to, and it will end up as a catastrophe for Russia. Nothing else."
ARMalik
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Dec 7, 2017
- Messages
- 6,046
- Reaction score
- -7
- Country
- Location
F-22Raptor
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 19, 2014
- Messages
- 16,980
- Reaction score
- 3
- Country
- Location
ARMalik
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Dec 7, 2017
- Messages
- 6,046
- Reaction score
- -7
- Country
- Location
Please make it even 500K sounds much better..
Let's just make it 1-Million so that he can sleep better at night.
ARMalik
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Dec 7, 2017
- Messages
- 6,046
- Reaction score
- -7
- Country
- Location
Severodonetsk Falls to Russia !
Fall of Severodonetsk is Russia’s biggest victory since Mariupol
Fall of city after weeks of street fighting transforms the battlefield in the east of Ukraine to Moscow’s advantage.
Fall of Severodonetsk is Russia’s biggest victory since Mariupol
Russian forces have fully occupied Severodonetsk, the mayor of the eastern Ukrainian city said, confirming Ukraine’s biggest battlefield setback for more than a month after weeks of fighting to hold the strategic town and latest symbol of Ukrainian resistance.
Russian missiles also rained down on western, northern and southern parts of the country on Saturday as Europe’s biggest land conflict since World War II enters its fifth month.
F-22Raptor
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 19, 2014
- Messages
- 16,980
- Reaction score
- 3
- Country
- Location
Nothing like getting blown up while taking a dump.
Abdul Rehman Majeed
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2019
- Messages
- 5,103
- Reaction score
- -40
- Country
- Location
Severodonetsk Falls to Russia !
Fall of Severodonetsk is Russia’s biggest victory since Mariupol
Fall of city after weeks of street fighting transforms the battlefield in the east of Ukraine to Moscow’s advantage.www.aljazeera.com
Fall of Severodonetsk is Russia’s biggest victory since Mariupol
Russian forces have fully occupied Severodonetsk, the mayor of the eastern Ukrainian city said, confirming Ukraine’s biggest battlefield setback for more than a month after weeks of fighting to hold the strategic town and latest symbol of Ukrainian resistance.
Russian missiles also rained down on western, northern and southern parts of the country on Saturday as Europe’s biggest land conflict since World War II enters its fifth month.
Its a tactical retreat. Russians will get pounded in the next few days like it is happening in Kherson.
F-22Raptor
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 19, 2014
- Messages
- 16,980
- Reaction score
- 3
- Country
- Location
There’s rumors on social media that the HIMARS strike on Russian command posts have killed up to 25 Russian Generals and high ranking officers which is why Putins vehicle was seen rushing back to the Kremlin to talk with force commanders. TIFWIW
- Status
Similar threads
