Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen
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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments
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Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen
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Meh. There is war every day since dawn of humanity. Just because you don't see it in the news doesn't mean it's not happening.
I see it clearly now, Russians will be dug in, while dispensing few force recon parties per week for this whole month.
At most, they have 40k frontline troops on the engagement line in the East.
That's a huge number without a doubt. Since they are not moving anywhere, their logistics burden is low.
Also, spring has come, and soldiers in the field can now sleep in the field.
All military specialists I track on Twitter say Russia has around 550-500 tanks. My count is lower, 400-500. There are also no large tank formations being spotted these days. They all dispersed, probably hoping that Ukrainians will have harder time defending on a wider front, and that they are still afraid of a breakthrough possibility.
Russians are certainly forcing Ukrainians into attrition warfare, but Ukrainians didn't take the bait so far.
My prediction: Russians will not make any dramatic last ditch offensive, and keep aggression to a minimum, like to a few sacrificial force recon parties per week, to last longer.
I am even more confident now that Russian force in the East been literally ordered to just stand, and weather it while limiting losses.
I don't see it working. Them betting on Ukraine exhausting before them will only work if they themselves can keep exhausting Ukrainians.
Ukrainians been holding the Donets line for 8 years, and have all preparations for a long siege, and the Izuym—Severodonetsk line was also a defence line prepared long before the war.
At most, Russian will get a bleeding siege line for until the winter, when their troops will have to retreat from the field to some semblance of minimal field bases (which will need to be built,) or die from cold. All this when Russia will be dealing with troubles internally.
Russia can try repeating The First Strait Crisis on land, and "freeze" the conflict at low level of intensity, but I don't see this feasible, well, since there is no Taiwan Strait in between Russia, and Ukraine now, beside a line of ravines, bogs, and washes.
Ukraine has all chances to plainly overmatch Russian offensive, and overcome its defensive potential on a number of frontline segments if they keep growing its reserves at its current rate for 2 months.
The question for me now is whether Ukrainian army will start a counteroffensive attempt with 1 division, or wait for a second to be formed, or more AA, and armour to arrive.
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Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen
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Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen
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You want to bankrupt an already struggling economy.
Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen
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Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen
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The SC
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US Secretary of Defense: The task of controlling weapons sent to Ukraine lies with Kyiv
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Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen
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Napoleon can't beat Russia. Hitler can't beat Russia. Biden is too old to beat Russia.
This guy has been bought by Russians it seems. He wont be able to stop Finland joining.
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