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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

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Notes from Turkish president Erdogan's speech after the NATO Leaders' Summit:

>Turkey evacuated 142 members of the Ukraine Observation Mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe via Istanbul.As of March 25, the number of refugees from Ukraine to Turkey has reached 60,000. As of March 25, AFAD and Turkish Red Crescent continue their activities in Ukraine actively. They have delivered 56 trucks of humanitarian aid so far, and this number will continue to grow exponentially in the coming period.

>As the country with the highest number of refugees in the world, we also provides international support to the problems of Ukraine's neighboring countries. However, Turkey condemns the discrimination of refugees based on their culture.

>NATO must act with a realistic and strategic approach. The alliance must have and maintain a position that is not a threat to Russia or any other third country.

>In the face of possible conflicts and crises, we must protect our allies effectively and uphold the principle of indivisibility of security. Turkey will make every contribution, we expect the same approach from our allies. There can be no implicit or explicit embargoes between the allies.

>At the June, Madrid summit, which will shape the future of the alliance, a summit where NATO's decisions will be taken for the next decades is planned. Here, NATO's new strategic concept will come to the fore. Turkey has a say in the future of the alliance and will contribute to this process.

>It is a necessity to restructure the institutions responsible for ensuring global peace and stability. We know the problems from Somalia to Yemen and Ukraine as the world, and it is our duty to carry out global security reform not only to those who lost their lives in wars, but also to new generations.

>As Turkey, all our efforts are to bring together the leaders of the two warring countries and to establish a climate of peace. Technical infrastructure works continues. Consensus has been reached on NATO's non-presence, disarmament and being official language of Russian in Ukraine. However, disagreements continue over the status of Donbas and Crimea. Ukraine is ready to put this to a referendum, and this is a requirement of wise leadership. Ukraine especially wants Turkey's mediation and the Russian side has a positive approach to this. If a common request arises, we are ready to take every step for our two countries.

(He also mentions that the relations between France and Turkey have gained a new momentum and they want to continue this after the elections in France. Apart from that, he mentioned that Turkey's efforts to create a ceasefire between the two countries were appreciated by many countries and shared some details about the diplomatic initiatives in the last month.)
 
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Well after Euromaidan the Ukrainian government started implementing hostile policies towards their Russian-speaking population, A sequence of choices that led them to where they are now.

Ukrainization in modern Ukraine[edit]​

Main article: Ukrainization
See also: Russian book ban in Ukraine
Since the Euromaidan of 2013-2014, the Ukrainian government has issued several laws aimed at encouraging Ukrainization in the media, in education and in other spheres.

In February 2017, the Ukrainian government banned the commercial importation of books from Russia, which had accounted for up to 60% of all titles sold in Ukraine.[17]

On May 23, 2017, the Ukrainian parliament approved the law that most broadcast content should be in Ukrainian (75% of national carriers and 50% of local carriers).

The 2017 law on education provides that Ukrainian language is the language of education at all levels except for one or more subjects that are allowed to be taught in two or more languages, namely English or one of the other official languages of the European Union (i.e. excluding Russian).[18] The law does state that persons belonging to the indigenous peoples of Ukraine are guaranteed the right to study at public pre-school institutes and primary schools in "the language of instruction of the respective indigenous people, along with the state language of instruction" in separate classes or groups.[18] The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has expressed concern with this measure and with the lack of "real consultation" with the representatives of national minorities.[19] In July 2018, The Mykolaiv Okrug Administrative Court liquidated the status of Russian as a regional language, on the suit (bringing to the norms of the national legislation due to the recognition of the law "On the principles of the state language policy" by the Constitutional Court of Ukraine as unconstitutional) of the First Deputy Prosecutor of the Mykolaiv Oblast.[20] In October and December 2018, parliaments of the city of Kherson and of Kharkiv Oblast also abolished the status of the Russian language as a regional one.[21]

In January 2022, a law requiring all print media to be published in Ukrainian came into force. It did not ban publication in Russian, however it stipulated that a Ukrainian version of equivalent circulation and scope must be published - which is not a profitable option for publishers. Critics argue that the law could disenfranchise the country's Russian-speakers.[22]



No wonder Russia is attacking.

I think this is too far.

It's a systematic way to cut Ukraine from Russia.

This war is a sin of the West.

I don't know how many times Russia is pledging to the West and Ukraine, as many Putin videos have shown, but in the end, enough is enough.

Maybe the only reason why Russia is wrong when you are being bullied, you are fighting back.

The West is too arrogant, even up to today, there's no sense of regret.

Wrong. At that time Ukraine needed 15 billion Dollar to pay the dept or go bankrupt. Ukraine first ask EU to give them credit and also join EU. But the EU only offer 6 billion Dollar. This was not enough to hold up Ukraine state and so Ukraine asks Russia and Russia gave Ukraine 15 billion Dollar with the condition that Ukraine do not join the EU or NATO. Ukraine take it and short time later the Maidan emerged with the help of US and EU. It was a coup.

6 billion = hero

15 billion = evil

This is what Ukrainians will remember, what is if this is not ungrateful.

And I don't know why the EU is thinking they are on the good side in this case, like thinking they are the savior, the great hero of Ukraine.

Like the life and future of Ukraine depends on them with 6 billion over 15 billion.

It's so arrogant.
 
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(He also mentions that the relations between France and Turkey have gained a new momentum and they want to continue this after the elections in France.

I don't think Erdogan is so naive. He knows France is only playing nice for the moment. Almost all parties in France are pathologically anti-Muslim and anti-Turkey.
 
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No Russian needed in Ukraine. Simple Iskander strikes from Belarus will do. Ukraine does not dare to attack Belarus and Russia soil.
Russians needed if they want to win. Shooting ballistic missiles doesn't get you what you want if you have no control. They have already hit Russian soil in the early days of the war. Since Russia is invading Ukraine, Ukraine is not much concerned how daring it is.

That's good enough for rear areas
There is no rear areas, they are getting attacked from all sides.
 
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Russia has 5 million draft eligible men, out of 15m total military age men (18-35,) but this statistics omits emigration, which is also uniquely huge for Russia. So we think at least 1m draft evader rich kids who live in the West, London included.

At most, half of that can be mobilised, without the economy going belly up completely.

But Russian military is materially incapable of accomodating so much upkeep, and not be able to process so many new soldiers.

In 2007, if I remember correct, our military instructor told what are the wartime material capacity of nearby countries for troop support. Russia was only 1.5m, and that was at the time when Russian economy was doing like 3-4 times better.

I would risk to say that current Russian 1m army is dictated by their current material limits, and at most a surge can raise it to 1 2m-1.3m, while also trashing the economy more.

They can at most sustain war for 2 years, if they completely disregard their soldiers lives, and know that they will collapse anyways.
Wow 2 years......That's actually quite generous. I will mark them off around 7-9 months, 1 year top if they squeeze every penny under the current economic situation. And that is if they have made some serious progress (again, like taking Mariupol) soon.

The issue here is resource wise, you are going to use double or triple of what you are going to use in battle, because training and equipping those troop would also take up resource, while guns and ammo or Personnel Protection equipment are easy, you can get it anywhere. (China, CAS or Belarus) but you don't just equip your soldier with guns and ammo and protection, which mean you need to somehow equip them with tank, artillery, infantry fighting vehicle and all the way going up to gunship and fighter aircraft, every lost have to be replaced, and you can only make a certain number every year, and I can tell you this, the Russia rate of losing their equipment is already over the rate they can replace for the entire year. And that is before their economy is being sanctioned.

The only logical and reasonable way is to repair the damage one and dip into the strategic stock (Funny thing, I read an article somewhere saying Lithuania offer Ukraine to repair some of their Captured Russian tank and put them back into service, free of charge). That is the only way to recover those losses. But then there is a limit for strategic reserve. Which mean they will run out. And that is why it is important to have an allied. If Ukrainian are able to fly F-16 or older F-15, US will probably offer them the one we have store in Davis Monthan Boneyard (that is why we have allied country come to the US to fly F-16 and F-15 with them)

On the other hand, Russian would not be able to dip into their strategic reserve indefinitely, so when that depleted (it will be depleted between 6 and 7 months with the current rate of loss) and that is the time either Russian allied help them and donate their strategic reserve to Russia or Russia would seriously having a hard time to project combat power.

So I would give them 7 to 9 months to 1 year top to do whatever they wanted to do in Ukraine, then they will need to talk about peace. Because there are no way they can sustain the war effort after that time limit.
 
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This is actually a bad thing for Ukraine
Not really, they have to fly low to hit their targets which means more vulnerable to anti air. Also if they missed their targets especially Ukrainian forces, then better for the Ukrainians.
 
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Headlines on this thread and Twitter :

Ukrainians launching counter offensive ….pushing back Russian forces.

Live CNN TV from Kiev : massive firefights and bombardment very close to the city.
 
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In Russia they are not ? The biggest country is the World with all the recources and the average pay more than two times lower than in Poland, where the export speciality is furniture and componets for the German economy ?

Really where is the Russian money ? Yachts ? Palaces ? Definately not in the army.

The USA, it's not?

I think it's hypocritical propaganda, to blame others but justify ourselves for the same thing.

Since when does capitalism hate capitalists?

And I don't think Poland doesn't have such a problem.

Democracy is destroyed by the elite's special privilege, it happens everywhere, including Indonesia.

From where political party gets the fund for the public election campaign? From the people? And rich people are people as well.

Ukraine is the country being invaded. Striking Russian staging areas is well within their rights.

Heavier weapons are needed.

Twice!

One is by USA thru the coup, and systematically change the alignment to USA.

And two is by Russia now.
 
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It’s a shame the new US Army Precision Strike Missile isn’t quite ready for prime time yet. That’d be a perfect weapon for the Ukrainians.
Sure if they join NATO after the war. I believe they should be giving Polish MiGs delivered by land and concealed and Russian made tanks that Zelenskyy wants as well as Russian made SAMs, Russia can't do anything about it, and we need to treat this as brinkmanship, the U.S. government needs to be less risk averse on this. And very symbolic long term in helping Ukraine back on its feet and trust NATO in future if they still join. Can't be Western tanks because of training and such and the ammo used is different than the Ukrainian ones which are 125mm cannons. Too much logistics for that. With captured tanks and their own, they can use the same caliber.

With the counteroffensive going on, its the best time to help the Ukrainians significantly as I have said with MiGs and tanks, but as well as more drones, , anti tank missiles, loitering munitions, etc. If the world wants to end this war quickly in Ukraine's favor, this is the way to go.
 
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Sure if they join NATO after the war. I believe they should be giving Polish MiGs delivered by land and concealed and Russian made tanks that Zelenskyy wants as well as Russian made SAMs, Russia can't do anything about it, and we need to treat this as brinkmanship, the U.S. government needs to be less risk averse on this. And very symbolic long term in helping Ukraine back on its feet and trust NATO in future if they still join. Can't be Western tanks because of training and such and the ammo used is different than the Ukrainian ones which are 125mm cannons. Too much logistics for that. With captured tanks and their own, they can use the same caliber.


The Ukrainians need M270 MLRS with 70km M-31 guided rocket artillery and ATACMS missiles. These would devastate Russian forces. 50-75 M270s
 
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