Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[8888888888888]

Some good points. One thing he does not mention is that there is not a single video of a javelin engaging a Russian tank in combat. Not a single one.

Ukraine would have a lot of videos of that if it's successful, if not nothing.

 

[Paul2]

The key is April. Actually, the key is for the Russian to take Mariupol before April.

Why April? April is where their initial conscript contract run out, so on April 1, there are going to be an influx of new conscript and most likely being send to battle like the last batch. Now, knowing what they know, that it was a war going on since Late Feb, would you want to be in that war?

While it is true that Russia have a lot of Troop, 900,000 standing and up to 2 millions reserve is the last conservative estimation. But you also need to remember Russia is one giant piece of landmass, which mean they would also need a lot of station force. That mean for a new rotation, there are only 1 out of 3 ways they could go

1.) The Cheap Skate way, do something like the "Stop-Loss" policy like the American did during Iraq and Afghanistan , extend the contract for the original conscript and have them stay put in the battlefield. Then you don't need to raise a lot of troop to fill the gap

2.) Mobilise the reserve, which is a sensible thing to do, but that mean it takes time to get them up to combat ready level.

3.) Send in the ready to go regular troop, That's the quickest way, but it take defensive power off Russia.

Now, all 3 solution would heavily depends on whether or not the Russia have any strategic gain, which at this point the closest is Mariupol. If they cannot take it before the April 1 rotation, that will present a problem for the Russian. Because assuming the normal Russian was not fed any information on the front line, they would still have know Putin have declare a Special Military Operation (And more or less by banning the word war, everyone would know this is actually a war) Which mean if nothing was gain for the 5 or 6 weeks operation, morale is going to drop. If this is the case, then option 1 and 2 would not cut it, it will most likely end up like the first batch.

Which is realistically the only people Russia can send is their regular. But would Putin willing to risk Russia national security

On the other hand, on the Ukrainian side, the longer they hold out, the longer they will give the Russian some thought about whether or not this war is worth it. Don't get me wrong, Russia sheer combat power trump Ukrainian, so if the Russian do not let go and do this day and night with multiple rotation, then at some point they are going to have the advantage over the Ukrainian. And it would be Ukrainian job to make the Russia reach this point as late as possible and as costly as possible. And force them into a negotiation table.

Russia has 5 million draft eligible men, out of 15m total military age men (18-35,) but this statistics omits emigration, which is also uniquely huge for Russia. So we think at least 1m draft evader rich kids who live in the West, London included.

At most, half of that can be mobilised, without the economy going belly up completely.

But Russian military is materially incapable of accomodating so much upkeep, and not be able to process so many new soldiers.

In 2007, if I remember correct, our military instructor told what are the wartime material capacity of nearby countries for troop support. Russia was only 1.5m, and that was at the time when Russian economy was doing like 3-4 times better.

I would risk to say that current Russian 1m army is dictated by their current material limits, and at most a surge can raise it to 1 2m-1.3m, while also trashing the economy more.

They can at most sustain war for 2 years, if they completely disregard their soldiers lives, and know that they will collapse anyways.

 

[Wood]

^ how Ukraine killed a Russian General

 

[8888888888888]

75% of their TOTAL BTGs. This is confirmed by the Pentagon.

Any other reserves they'd call upon after those are mostly untrained cannon fodder.

That's good enough for rear areas

 

[PakFactor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506976142292627465

I see nothing wrong with the Russians using White Phosphorus or thermite incendiary submunitions the Americans (MK 77 in Iraq etc) and Israelis used them religiously unless it’s more painful due to it being used on blonde hair and blue eyed people.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507155308648570881

 

[8888888888888]

Yes ive realised that. Especially regarding casualties.

Best to wait 2-3 years from when the war is over, to finally get some truth

I see. So Russia fully controls Izyum then. So that either means, the report of the counter attack is false, or Russia counter attacked the Ukrainians shortly after the Ukrainian counter attack and regained it.

I wonder how will Ukraine counter attack can work when Russia controls the air.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507150535660552193

That’s terrible

 

[Wood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507155308648570881

This is actually a bad thing for Ukraine

 

[WotTen]

It is not possible for Russia's annexation decision to be recognized in terms of international law.

Russia can always follow the Western trick of supporting 'independence' for these regions (South Sudan, East Timor, etc). If they then decide to merge with Russia, whose business is that?

US and Britain are sending forces to NATO countries next to Ukraine, because all those countries are requesting it. It`s polish strategic goal to have a pernament US base. NOBODY is trusting Russia here.

I was surprised to see how almost every East European country except Belarus is so strongly anti-Russia. Unlike NATO, where countries want to join, it seems the Warsaw Pact was only held together by Russian force.

 

[oberschlesier]

I was surprised to see how almost every East European country except Belarus is so strongly anti-Russia. Unlike NATO, where countries want to join, it seems the Warsaw Pact was only held together by Russian force.

Warsaw Pact was probably the only defence alliance in History, that attacked their own members. This explains it.

 

[faithfulguy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503466477772582921

Kharkov changed hand more times than any major cities in WWII. It’s sad to see all these destruction there.

 

[Menthol]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507045265487716358

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507032517165162505

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506915770688843781

I completely agree with this!

The West vs the rest.

After the war, Russia will lead the world into liberation, to real freedom.

Assuming the war is not ended with nuclear war.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507160339988709403

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507173735060713474