Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504678064445222914

 

[LeGenD]

we were not allowed swift , we were not allowed trade in valuable metal , our oil industry were sanctioned , we were not allowed to trade in Dollar .
every company wanted to trade with us would have been sanctioned if it get known . i wonder if you mean another iran . we were not even allowed to loan money for fighting Corona virus while according to all laws we were entitled to the loan because we didn't ever used our right to borrow money .
we learned to live with sanction , we used transaction systems which were used since thousand of years ago , we also used barter system , ......

when sanction put on Iran , iran currency lost 90% of its value . so nothing new there . the only difference is we don have that much of foreign debt .

Iranian rial lost 90 % of its value in 2004-2005 and again 30-40% in 2018-2019 . but the economy is not only foreign trade for all countries ,for some yes but for countries like Iran foreign trade is not even 10% of our economy , the rest is based on what we do inside our country ,and that made some country more resilient to sanction , and I believe Russia also have a big bunch of economy based on their country not foreign trade , that's why they survived the fall of USSR and the years after it and that's why I believe they survive this time


they stop trading it in form of not using it to pay for oil .

Donald Trump created problems for Iran but Europe facilitated Iranian economic activity through INSTEX mechanism:

INSTEX, which stands for Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges, is a payment system that will allow companies to trade with Iran despite harsh US sanctions. It will function as a diplomatic shield allowing the exchange of goods without requiring direct transfers of money between Iran and EU companies.

EU mechanism for trade with Iran 'now operational' – DW – 06/28/2019

The EU has created a mechanism that will allow European countries to trade with Iran despite US sanctions. The move is an attempt to show good will toward Iran and keep it in the 2015 nuclear deal.

amp.dw.com

Democrats will be easy on Iran as well:

Russia says it has received US guarantees over Iran nuclear deal

In joint news conference, foreign ministers of Russia and Iran contest Western claim Moscow is blocking JCPOA revival.

www.aljazeera.com

Russia will be allowed to trade with Iran due to JCPOA factor:

Russia says it has received US guarantees over Iran nuclear deal

In joint news conference, foreign ministers of Russia and Iran contest Western claim Moscow is blocking JCPOA revival.

www.aljazeera.com

Iran is able to conduct trade with multiple countries with different payment mechanisms in use:

EXPORTS

The top exports of Iran are Crude Petroleum ($12.3B), Ethylene Polymers ($2.63B), Acyclic Alcohols ($1.09B), Iron Ore ($1.06B), and Other Nuts ($630M), exporting mostly to China ($12.1B), India ($3.03B), South Korea ($1.89B), Turkey ($1.5B), and United Arab Emirates ($1.14B).

IMPORTS

The top imports of Iran are Rice ($1.47B), Corn ($1.42B), Broadcasting Equipment ($1.38B), Soybean Meal ($853M), and Soybeans ($788M), importing mostly from China ($9.61B), United Arab Emirates ($7.08B), India ($3.86B), Turkey ($2.6B), and Brazil ($2.19B).

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/irn

This isn't to say that all is well in Iran:

COVID-19 expenditure and plummeting oil revenues have increased Iran’s fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio to its highest in decades. Government revenues April to December 2020 (9M-2020/21) were only 55% of the approved budget for the entire year. Similarly, only 14% of anticipated oil income materialized, due to lower oil export volumes and prices. Meanwhile, the higher health and social assistance costs resulting from the pandemic pushed total expenditures up by 28% YoY. As such, the country’s fiscal deficit is estimated to increase to over 6% of GDP and public debt to surpass 50% in 2020/21.

Inflationary pressures also increased in 2020/21, as the Iranian rial depreciated due to a limited supply of foreign exchange and heightened economic uncertainty. Inflation resurged to over 48% (YoY) in February 2021. Since April 2020, the currency has lost half of its value because of US sanctions placed on accessing reserves abroad. Hopes of sanctions’ relief after the November US elections led the rial to regain about 15%. Exchange rate volatility and government financing operations had negative spillover in the stock market.

These recent economic trends have added stress to low-income households and stalled poverty reduction. Poverty increased by 1 percentage point from 2017/18 to 2018/19, reaching 14% before the pandemic. Now, it is estimated that loss in household incomes through the pandemic and the rising cost of living, due to inflation, will push poverty up by 20 percentage points. A range of social protection measures have been introduced in response but, while they partially compensate for the lost incomes, their real value will erode with continued high inflation.

Iran’s economic outlook hinges on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic and the pace of global economic recovery. Recovery to its GDP is projected to be gradual, due to slow vaccination rollout and weak demand from regional trading partners. A decrease in inflation is forecast but, nonetheless, inflation is likely to remain above 20% on average in the medium-term. Coming on top of limited fiscal space and high inflation, economic pressure on poor households will continue. Better targeting of cash transfers can help reduce mitigation costs.

In the absence of a pick-up in oil revenues, the fiscal deficit is projected to remain high in the medium term. Slow economic recovery would translate into similarly slow growth in non-oil revenues. Higher reliance on bond issuance, especially of short-term bonds, would increase interest payments and amortizations costs. Further issuance of government debt and the sale of public assets could increase financial contagion risks in the stock market and place more stress on the undercapitalized banking sector.

Overview

Iran’s economy is characterized by the hydrocarbon sector, agriculture and services sectors, and a noticeable state presence in manufacturing and financial services.

www.worldbank.org

Spike in inflation and poverty fueled protests in Iran not long ago:

2019–2020 Iranian protests - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Iran has authoritative clerical system so many do not have much say in its affairs.

Biden administration will give concessions to Iran in exchange for revival of JCPOA.

- - -

Russia is much more heavily sanctioned than Iran in the present.

USA imposed limited-scale but well-calculated sanctions on Russia for annexing Crimeia in 2014. Russian economy dropped from 5th spot to 11th spot in the (2014 - 2021) period consequently.

Europe continued to facilitate Russia on the other hand. Germany approved Nord Stream 2 with Russia as well.

But Putin administration's decision to invade Ukraine has backfired.

Now Europe and USA are on the same page. Other countries are also imposing sanctions on Russia.

Tracking sanctions against Russia

Searchable data on the latest sanctions and actions taken against Russia

graphics.reuters.com

This does no bode well for Russia.

China can provide relief to Russia but it won't be enough:

Can China’s SWIFT Alternative Give Russia a Lifeline?

Russia’s increasing use of the RMB and connectivity with China’s international payment system will struggle to mitigate the fallout of international sanctions.

thediplomat.com

Putin administration should find a political solution for Ukraine and cut back on its hardline positions. DAMAGE CONTROL factor.

Countries like Somalia and Venezuela also exist and function but is there a point to this kind of existence?

Russia is blessed with largest amount of natural reserves in the world but it is nowhere close to realizing its true potential in growth due to its policies.

Same is true for Iran to lesser extent.

China did not become a giant in vaccum - it benefits from all camps including USA and Europe. China works with everybody.

 

[CIA Mole]

Donald Trump created problems for Iran but Europe facilitated Iranian economic activity through INSTEX mechanism:

INSTEX, which stands for Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges, is a payment system that will allow companies to trade with Iran despite harsh US sanctions. It will function as a diplomatic shield allowing the exchange of goods without requiring direct transfers of money between Iran and EU companies.

EU mechanism for trade with Iran 'now operational' – DW – 06/28/2019

The EU has created a mechanism that will allow European countries to trade with Iran despite US sanctions. The move is an attempt to show good will toward Iran and keep it in the 2015 nuclear deal.

amp.dw.com

Democrats will be easy on Iran as well:

Russia says it has received US guarantees over Iran nuclear deal

In joint news conference, foreign ministers of Russia and Iran contest Western claim Moscow is blocking JCPOA revival.

www.aljazeera.com

Russia will be allowed to trade with Iran due to JCPOA factor:

Russia says it has received US guarantees over Iran nuclear deal

In joint news conference, foreign ministers of Russia and Iran contest Western claim Moscow is blocking JCPOA revival.

www.aljazeera.com

Iran is able to conduct trade with multiple countries with different payment mechanisms in use:

EXPORTS

The top exports of Iran are Crude Petroleum ($12.3B), Ethylene Polymers ($2.63B), Acyclic Alcohols ($1.09B), Iron Ore ($1.06B), and Other Nuts ($630M), exporting mostly to China ($12.1B), India ($3.03B), South Korea ($1.89B), Turkey ($1.5B), and United Arab Emirates ($1.14B).

IMPORTS

The top imports of Iran are Rice ($1.47B), Corn ($1.42B), Broadcasting Equipment ($1.38B), Soybean Meal ($853M), and Soybeans ($788M), importing mostly from China ($9.61B), United Arab Emirates ($7.08B), India ($3.86B), Turkey ($2.6B), and Brazil ($2.19B).

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/irn

This isn't to say that all is well in Iran:

COVID-19 expenditure and plummeting oil revenues have increased Iran’s fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio to its highest in decades. Government revenues April to December 2020 (9M-2020/21) were only 55% of the approved budget for the entire year. Similarly, only 14% of anticipated oil income materialized, due to lower oil export volumes and prices. Meanwhile, the higher health and social assistance costs resulting from the pandemic pushed total expenditures up by 28% YoY. As such, the country’s fiscal deficit is estimated to increase to over 6% of GDP and public debt to surpass 50% in 2020/21.

Inflationary pressures also increased in 2020/21, as the Iranian rial depreciated due to a limited supply of foreign exchange and heightened economic uncertainty. Inflation resurged to over 48% (YoY) in February 2021. Since April 2020, the currency has lost half of its value because of US sanctions placed on accessing reserves abroad. Hopes of sanctions’ relief after the November US elections led the rial to regain about 15%. Exchange rate volatility and government financing operations had negative spillover in the stock market.

These recent economic trends have added stress to low-income households and stalled poverty reduction. Poverty increased by 1 percentage point from 2017/18 to 2018/19, reaching 14% before the pandemic. Now, it is estimated that loss in household incomes through the pandemic and the rising cost of living, due to inflation, will push poverty up by 20 percentage points. A range of social protection measures have been introduced in response but, while they partially compensate for the lost incomes, their real value will erode with continued high inflation.

Iran’s economic outlook hinges on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic and the pace of global economic recovery. Recovery to its GDP is projected to be gradual, due to slow vaccination rollout and weak demand from regional trading partners. A decrease in inflation is forecast but, nonetheless, inflation is likely to remain above 20% on average in the medium-term. Coming on top of limited fiscal space and high inflation, economic pressure on poor households will continue. Better targeting of cash transfers can help reduce mitigation costs.

In the absence of a pick-up in oil revenues, the fiscal deficit is projected to remain high in the medium term. Slow economic recovery would translate into similarly slow growth in non-oil revenues. Higher reliance on bond issuance, especially of short-term bonds, would increase interest payments and amortizations costs. Further issuance of government debt and the sale of public assets could increase financial contagion risks in the stock market and place more stress on the undercapitalized banking sector.

Overview

Iran’s economy is characterized by the hydrocarbon sector, agriculture and services sectors, and a noticeable state presence in manufacturing and financial services.

www.worldbank.org

Spike in inflation and poverty fueled protests in Iran not long ago:

2019–2020 Iranian protests - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Iran has authoritative clerical system so many do not have much say in its affairs.

Biden administration will give concessions to Iran in exchange for revival of JCPOA.

- - -

Russia is much more heavily sanctioned than Iran in the present.

USA imposed limited-scale but well-calculated sanctions on Russia for annexing Crimeia in 2014. Russian economy dropped from 5th spot to 11th spot in the (2014 - 2021) period consequently.

Europe continued to facilitate Russia on the other hand. Germany approved Nord Stream 2 with Russia as well.

But Putin administration's decision to invade Ukraine has backfired.

Now Europe and USA are on the same page. Other countries are also imposing sanctions on Russia.

Tracking sanctions against Russia

Searchable data on the latest sanctions and actions taken against Russia

graphics.reuters.com

This does no bode well for Russia.

China can provide relief to Russia but it won't be enough:

Can China’s SWIFT Alternative Give Russia a Lifeline?

Russia’s increasing use of the RMB and connectivity with China’s international payment system will struggle to mitigate the fallout of international sanctions.

thediplomat.com

Putin administration should find a political solution for Ukraine and cut back on its hardline positions. DAMAGE CONTROL factor.

Countries like Somalia and Venezuela also exist and function but is there a point to this kind of existence?

Russia is blessed with largest amount of natural reserves in the world but it is nowhere close to realizing its true potential in growth due to its policies.

Same is true for Iran to lesser extent.

China did not become a giant in vaccum - it benefits from all camps including USA and Europe. China works with everybody.

As long as a country has good domestic policies and is open to trade it can do relatively well even under full US sanctions

eventually even the poorest subsaharan africa will become as advanced as US today

might take 200 years but it will get there if it remains open

 

[Amliunion]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504703715923705867

 

[jhungary]

Since the war is going slow for Russian side and putins demands if are too high behind the scenes on the negotiating table there is the slight possibility of even small usage of tactical nukes by Russia on eastern plains of Ukraine to turn the tides for putins victory. But in that case open usage of tactical nukes will be the norm in every future conflict involving nuclear powers. It will open the gates of hell. Maybe that is what Usa wants as well behind the scenes and provokes Russia to do that(or control putin if he was an installed leader). In that case there should be preemptive measures in place for deterrance against using it. Un voting countries including China should be ready to vote against Russia if tactical nukes are used and impose severe sanctions similar to Eu. That would make whole south Asia vote against as well so it wont be a surprise. Also nuclear debris can spread to Poland even if small nukes are used. SM-3 SM-6 sams would possibly placed on Poland to secure western parts of Ukraine having 500-600km range. We would also see similar sam-missile buildup in Letonia,Estonia bordering nato countries as well if that happens. That would be a strategic loss for Russia even if not for putin that is if tactical nukes are used.

If Russia wanted to use Tactical Nuke, they would have already done so, this is not being stagnate overnight, it's like this since day 14 (actually there are no change in city ownership since day 10 when Kherson felt)

Another point being, US and UK is already militarizing NATO member in the Baltics and Poland. They are getting AD system installed (UK just announced new Air Defence system in Estonia and US deployed 3 PAC-3 in Poland) and and increase of 40,000 US troop beefing up US contingent in Europe to 110,000.

And then you are looking at very high distinct possibility that Sweden and Finland will join NATO.

 

[MH.Yang]

china is vulnerable right now theres nothing it can do that others cant

Do you really think China is afraid of nuclear war?

We may be the country that is least afraid of and most prepared for nuclear war.
Our national mobilization system is the most efficient and comprehensive.
Our grain reserve ranks first in the world.
Our refuge project began construction in 1969 and now can accommodate about 200 million urban people.

How about the Asylum Project in USA?
Oh, sorry, I forgot that Americans can't even repair their infrastructure, let alone shelters for hundreds of millions of people. After the nuclear war, when tens of thousands of wealthy Jews and senior officials in the West leave the shelters, hundreds of millions of Chinese will also leave the shelters with complete industrial chains and sufficient food supplies.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504681998086033408

 

[thetutle]

Where is the money going to come up if China want to buy "EXTRA" oil and gas without printing more.

China wont need to buy extra oil. it will buy what it has the capacity to process. I fit needs more money it will create it like all countries create money I the fractional banking system.

What happened if China buying more than enough USD into settling the debt?

I down understand the question

What can Russia guarantee the transaction in return?

There is not need for a guarantee.

 

[Apollon]

Do you really think China is afraid of nuclear war?

We may be the country that is least afraid of and most prepared for nuclear war.
Our national mobilization system is the most efficient and comprehensive.
Our grain reserve ranks first in the world.
Our refuge project began construction in 1969 and now can accommodate about 200 million urban people.

How about the Asylum Project in USA?
Oh, sorry, I forgot that Americans can't even repair their infrastructure, let alone shelters for hundreds of millions of people. After the nuclear war, when tens of thousands of wealthy Jews and senior officials in the West leave the shelters, hundreds of millions of Chinese will also leave the shelters with complete industrial chains and sufficient food supplies.

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China is not our enemy. We are rivals, not enemies

 

[CIA Mole]

Do you really think China is afraid of nuclear war?

We may be the country that is least afraid of and most prepared for nuclear war.
Our national mobilization system is the most efficient and comprehensive.
Our grain reserve ranks first in the world.
Our refuge project began construction in 1969 and now can accommodate about 200 million urban people.

How about the Asylum Project in USA?
Oh, sorry, I forgot that Americans can't even repair their infrastructure, let alone shelters for hundreds of millions of people. After the nuclear war, when tens of thousands of wealthy Jews and senior officials in the West leave the shelters, hundreds of millions of Chinese will also leave the shelters with complete industrial chains and sufficient food supplies.

View attachment 825115
View attachment 825116
View attachment 825118
View attachment 825119

are there enough shelters for everyone? what about rural areas


once russia is nuked, china can take the north too if a billion people are still alive

 

[LeGenD]

As long as a country has good domestic policies and is open to trade it can do relatively well even under full US sanctions

eventually even the poorest subsaharan africa will become as advanced as US today

might take 200 years but it will get there if it remains open

You missed the point. It is not wise to antagonize entire Western hemisphere with questionable geopolitics. You should be in the good books of Europe at least.

USA will not impose full sanctions on any country unless the objective is to bring its trading activity to standstill. USA can adopt a combination of soft and hard power approaches to this effect in theory. But this is extreme and millions will die of starvation in subject country.

The maximum you will see is how Venezeula was cut to size in spite of having largest reserves of oil in the world.

Globalization matters, therefore.

China is committed to globalization even in the face of bullish American behavior at times.

You mentioned Africa so let me tell you something. Some African countries want to substitute Russia in Europe for supply of gas and other stuff. African countries will welcome European investment with open arms. You will see in time.

 

[CIA Mole]

You missed the point. It is not wise to antagonize entire Western hemisphere with questionable geopolitics. You should be in the good books of Europe at least.

USA will not impose full sanctions on any country unless the objective is to bring its trading activity to standstill. USA can adopt a combination of soft and hard power approaches to this effect in theory. But this is extreme and millions will die of starvation in subject country.

The maximum you will see is how Venezeula was cut to size in spite of having largest reserves of oil in the world.

Globalization matters, therefore.

China is committed to globalization even in the face of bullish American behavior at times.

All those places like venezuela iran north korea can do great if it simply adopts business friendly policies domestically and let capitalism flourish

They can trade with whoever is willing and can trade with them

They can even trade with each other




US sanctions only look scary because these places are already failed states



I think $10k/capita GDP is possible even with US sanctions and it will grow even more overtime as it learns unless it gets Freedomed

 

[Viet]

Do you really think western countries still have a chance to rebuild the industrial chain? Now, even with China's cooperation, it will take decades to transfer only the low-end industrial chain. If Western countries need to rebuild a complete industrial chain from scratch, will 100 years be enough? Will China give western countries so much time? After the announcement of sanctions, China will use the supply of necessities to attract other resource countries to trade with CNY, and then occupy the whole world trading system. The pain of both sides is not at the same level, and Western countries have no opportunity to rebuild the industrial chain.

Yes, nuclear weapons. The USA can also threaten China with nuclear weapons. But I'm afraid China can afford nuclear war, while the USA cannot afford nuclear war.

The world is not static the earth is not flat I wonder why chinese think it’s other way around.
Europe used to rely on Russia energy imports, with Germany the most affected.
Even thought Germany says it can cut oil and coal imports from Russia to zero by 2023.
Europe can produce everything if necessary.
Intel opens 2x chip factories for $20 billion USD in Germany.
In few year’s Europe is self sufficient in semiconductor.

Intel-Chip-Fabrik: Wendepunkt für Europa

Intel baut für 17 Milliarden Euro zwei Chipfabriken in Deutschland: Diese Entscheidung ist wegweisend, aus mehreren Gründen.

www.sueddeutsche.de

 

[MH.Yang]

are there enough shelters for everyone? what about rural areas


once russia is nuked, china can take the north too if a billion people are still alive

Of course, it's not enough. There are 1.4 billion people in China. These facilities can only accommodate 200 million people.
Moreover, these facilities were prepared by the Chinese government to prepare for the nuclear war with the Soviet Union after 1969. Now they are expanded and rebuilt into underground commercial facilities.
But they can guarantee that we have the most people alive after the nuclear war. After all, other countries do not even have any such facilities.

 

[vizier]

If Russia wanted to use Tactical Nuke, they would have already done so, this is not being stagnate overnight, it's like this since day 14 (actually there are no change in city ownership since day 10 when Kherson felt)

Another point being, US and UK is already militarizing NATO member in the Baltics and Poland. They are getting AD system installed (UK just announced new Air Defence system in Estonia and US deployed 3 PAC-3 in Poland) and and increase of 40,000 US troop beefing up US contingent in Europe to 110,000.

And then you are looking at very high distinct possibility that Sweden and Finland will join NATO.

Maybe putin thought after day 14 advances would be slow but steady but now getting more sure to use other means each passing day. Everyday the possibility of tactical nukes usage gets higher and additionally against a non nuclear country.

Stationing medium range PAC-3 and similar systems is one thing but stationing SM-3-6 long range abm types close to Polish-Estonia border would be a provocation now for Russia to use non conventionals to speed up the operation but can be a necessisty as an ultimatum to be placed conditionally if tactical nukes are used in Ukraine depending on the situation.

Sweden recently said joining would make the current situation with Russia more tense but ofcourse if tactical nukes are used everyone would naturally want to be under some percievedly secure nuclear umbrella(perhaps not putins) or develop their own nukes.