Yes, CNY is appreciating abnormally.
First, the reason for the appreciation is that the Ukrainian war led to the flight of European capital to China, and a large number of Europeans used the euro to buy CNY. That has nothing to do with the use of CNY settlement in Russian trade.
Second, such abnormal appreciation will not last long. If necessary, the Chinese govt will intervene in the exchange rate. And raising interest rates in USA will take away a lot of hot money.
Third, this level of appreciation will not affect China's exports. Trump's high tariffs cannot defeat China's export trade. How much impact can these appreciation bring?
Sir, there are not so many offshore CNY in the world that can consume all China's foreign exchange reserves.
You may have seriously underestimated the amount of foreign exchange in China and seriously overestimated the number of offshore CNY.
Firstly, how much Yuan overseas is a public figure, you cannot "overestimate" the amount because those figure are need to balance international monetary policy. So, I do not overestimate the number of offshore Yuan.
As for Chinese Foreign Reserve, the number is published by Chinese Central Bank, however, unlike other Central Bank, I would treat that figure with a grain of salt, seeing China control Chinese monetary policy directly. That figure could be off, but a Healthy Foreign reserve would have 50/50 CYN vs all other Basket. that is the par point, were it the number of Actual Chinese Reserve? I don't know.
I have already said what I set out to say, I don't get why you keep talking about the same point. I mean, if you think China can stomach 7 trillions Yuan will not impact China financial market, I mean, that's your believe, I will not argue with you on what you believe, because I cannot change your mind, and you cannot change mine. So, that's a non-starter.
As I said to the other dude, this is NOT about trade, this is about Monetary Policy, I have my concern because what you are saying does not sound sustainable to me for the reason I mentioned (You only have a limited Yuan you can exchange with USD/EURO or what have you) and the Russian buying Yuan is non-sustainable because of their fallen currency. No matter how much you repeat your point (which is it does not hurt Chinese export and reusing Yuan for purchase) does not change both fact I mention, and if you believe this is not going to impact China. I mean, you can of course go ahead and believe it.
I don't have time to go back 20 rounds with you saying the exact same thing and I am saying the exact same thing. So I am going to end it here. You can have the last word if you want, or you can ignore this, I really don't care. I just don't have time to go around and around mining the same argument with you over and over again.
No, No,no, No, Just no. It can be paid with Yuan. Its very very simple
How?
