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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

Make the Black Sea Turkish Again 🇹🇷
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jhungary said:
Well, this Russia army is scrapping the bottom of the barrel. I remember I was watching a parade drill for new Russian recruit being deployed to Ukraine, most of these people aren't fit. They are at least 4 sizes over the regular uniform size. And their equipment are sub-standard.

It's pretty much obvious to us that Russia has not even prepared to someday reinstate the draft, equipment has not been stored properly and there are no surplus or surge stock. There are reports that local unit raid airsoft store for equipment. Sometime even recruit themselves had to fork out thousands of ruble to buy them.

In the US, even our selective service system is not implemented, we still have equipment surge in case for a draft, we have around 300,000 set of rifle and equipment (Granted most of them are M16A2 and 20 years old equipment like the one I had used in my war in Iraq like IBA without side panel.) So they can arm and trained those recruit at least to a point where new purchase and materialised. That had not been done in Russia. So if anything is being send to war in Ukraine by Russia, they aren't coming back alive. That's not because of they are white Russian or Afghan, it's because they don't have enough equipment.
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I was never expecting RUAF to declare mobilisation, AND not ban people from leaving Russia.

They actually lost more military age men fleeing to Dubai than to Ukraine.

So RUAF got only so so people from rural Russia.


So I am downgrading my March predictions to at most 1.6 million from 2.5 millions upper estimate, and that in case of some military economy being instated.

And I can't say Russia will be able to instate military economy now. Military economy needs advanced preparedness just like a mobilisation. The later you introduce it, the less would be its effectiveness.

For example, how would Russians move, and prepare lodging for at least a part of people they want to enroll into military economy? They have trouble lodging, and moving enough soldiers as of now, and if they will go military economy, it will be even worse.

Next summer will be the most interesting period to watch how Russian economy will fare.

I believe Moscow is well aware of economic ruin from mobilisation, thus they try hard to decouple military mobilisation, from economic one, and this is why they kept borders open, and have not put any serious restraints on monetary system.
 
While I will keep 1.6m as an upper estimate, we now know that RU has no ways of blocking routes for its draftees to run on its southern borders.

If they will declare a total mobilisation, 2x-4x times the number of people being mobilised will try to run.

Now we know, on the paper they got 190k-220k draftees now, with most of them being stuck in the bases far away from the front due to jammed logistics capacity.

And that at least 800k Russians ran away permanently, with upper estimate being 1.6m Russian military age men leaving the country, with most of them being upper economic classes.

Russian most realistic plan for a more complete mobilisation would cause millions of men to flee, and nuke the remaining Russian economy — it will be at that time when food, and other basic civilian necessities will become an issue for RU.

Most likely, they will be treading a fine line in between nuking the economy, and real needs in troop counts. My guess 400k-600k will be the peak of Russian manpower thrown at war effort.
 
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Dalit said:
I am sure the Ukrainians will. This war has only one logical outcome. As you rightly predict, Russia on top with a lot of annexed Ukrainian territory.
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Obviously, if Ukraine fights to the last man, woman, or child, then Russia annex the entire Ukraine as there won't be a single Ukrainian left in Ukraine.

Paul2 said:
While I will keep 1.6m as an upper estimate, we now know that RU has no ways of blocking routes for its draftees to run on its southern borders.

If they will declare a total mobilisation, 2x-4x times the number of people being mobilised will try to run.

Now we know, on the paper they got 190k-220k draftees now, with most of them being stuck in the bases far away from the front due to jammed logistics capacity.

And that at least 800k Russians ran away permanently, with upper estimate being 1.6m Russian military age men leaving the country, with most of them being upper economic classes.

Russian most realistic plan for a more complete mobilisation would cause millions of men to flee, and nuke the remaining Russian economy — it will be at that time when food, and other basic civilian necessities will become an issue for RU.
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If millions of Russians leave, then millions of Chinese come. The land is good. Cold. But good. I remember after WW2 lots of Turks settled in Germany.
 
Shawnee said:
View attachment 890595

IRGC officer, Brigadier general Sina from Kherson front will directly call Putin tonight.

Lots of butts on fire mostly outside Ukraine. :D
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The keyword here is butts on fire. lol

Reashot Xigwin said:
4 ships of the Russian Black Sea fleet were struck by Ukrainian drones on Sevastopol naval base.

A frigate (Admiral Makarov) & minesweeper (Ivan Golubet) ship are confirmed sunk.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1586363908071489536

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586358395933970433

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586269415192027141

Russia now lost 2 flagship from Ukrainian attack
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Proof is needed or it didn't happen.
 

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