it will pick up , then what a lancet is launched by a iron bar and some elastic band, when its high enough to be picked by radar it already away from launch site and the one who launched it already gone .
and your example of cigarette is not related at all
Again, you can only launch Lancet within 10-15 km range, as I said before, even if the force doesn't know where it was launch, I can send a few helicopter with FLIR and look for whoever launch that drone post launch, a 10km x 10km grid can be search within 10 minutes in the air (It take less if I send more than 1 chopper), and again, unless you bring helicopter to exfil the Russian, 10 minutes you can at most driven for 10 km, and less than if you walk, that team would still be inside the search grid.
Also, you would still have signature because the drone have it own propulsion system, it can't fly for 10 km if you launch it from an iron pipe with a elastic band, that is what it will be picked up
again you knew general direction good go hunt any farmer and hiker in that direction
It's different if you look for something in the air than on the ground, you only need to know the general direction to look for something, because when you are up in the air, your search patten is a grid (x by x grid depends on your equipment) where when you are on the ground, you searching pattern is a point as you only search whatever you look at.
not attack Poland , it would be stupid if they manage to capture Ukraine and use all of their army .
what they can use is for example train them as saboteur infilterate Poland and do some sabutage there , make reaching supply ti Ukraine from that route a little harder. and meanwhile deny that Wagner is working on their behalf . after all they are just bunch of outcast radical criminal , the law abiding one are already signed with Russia defense ministry . at least it can be Russia narrative.
again, with what? Wagner?
You are not talking about asymmetric warfare when you are an indigenous force, as in Taliban in Afghan, AQI/ISIS in Iraq or VC in Vietnam, all those are indigenous force, where they live in that area, they are the local, we are the foreign troop. If Wagner do Sabotage mission inside Poland then they will be a foreign force, and the Pole is the indigenous troop, they would have to either mount long range patrol or Infiltration patrol into Poland from Belarus, those are special force type stuff, that mean you would need to be able to survive behind enemy line, and you would need to infil and exfil without being noticed, and you would need to know how to navigate foreign terrain, how to bypass patrol, and how to insert with radio silence and so on.
It will take years to perfect those skill, again, it takes 18 months to train a US Army Special Force soldier, and another few month for LRRP and LRIP technique, Wagner is not special force, they could be able to raise insurgency inside Russia, but they can't do LRRP or LRIP or DAP in a foreign country, that's Alpha Group stuff. And certain not the Wagner now......
