if mean time russia make another push from the east there won't be that much troop to transfare west toward belarusian forces. and no i doubt poland will attack belarus as they are somehow depleted by this war in ukraine and if something happen they cant rely on article 5 of the NATO , start uprising , yes they can do but enter in direct war ,very unlikely
No. Remember when I said Ukrainian rotate their troop.
Take 2 Brigade for an example. 95th and 115th, 95 was based (as in their garrison) in Zhytomyr, which is WEST of Kyiv, their current position is somewhere in the East western intelligence believe it is near Bakhmut. When they were in Bakhmut, their position in Zhytomyr was taken by 115th Brigade, and they rotate with each other. And before that, it was 120 TDF Brigade.
So essentally, what the Ukrainian do is rotate troop and put their reserve to back up a regular unit, and redeploy them back to their original base to refit and reorganise after 3 or 4 months, and put one of those TDF brigade in their place. That way you preserve your force, and you keep the force fresh.
Russia on the other hand, leave their unit in threatre until either they are decimated or no longer function as a BTG. Which mean the combat power erode much quicker and when that unit is gone, it IS gone, you will either need to put new unit in them (hence the mobilisation) or disband other to form one from the remaining troop.
That is the reason why Ukraine don't have mobilisation, when the Russia is asking for another one. Ukraine use the time they deployed their frontline brigade in the frontline to train new troop, form new Brigade and so on, and when that regular unit come back for R&R, you send that new unit off in their place, and rotate them back and reuse the regular unit.
On the other hand, Ukraine still probably have 10 or 15 Brigade that were not used anywhere in the line, which coincide with the latest round of Miltiary Aid, I don't personally believe in coincident. It's not at all hard to see they are waiting on the new Western Hardware to form rejuvenate their military power for another push.
On the other hand, while I also do not believe Poland will invade Belarus, but the actual talk have their weight, it make Lukachenko think twice, that is probably the single reason why Lukachenko refused to commit to this war even as the go so far to let Russia do what they please within their own territories, in fact, my wife had point out that effectively Belarus should be already be at war with Ukraine.
On the other hand Poland is not a depleted force, just rely on ex-Soviet equipment alone, they can already take on Belarus. Probably even enough to neutralise Russian troop inside Ukraine with. You are talking about 1000+ T-72 (T-72 + PT-91) hundred of Grad, Hundreds of 2S1. That would be more than enough to fight Belarussian. And then they are buying new Western stuff like crazy, 220 HIMARS, 198 Chunmoo, 400 M1 Abrams, 1000 K-2 Tank.....I mean, they are going to be armed to the teeth in the next few years. I don't think poland is depleted in any form or sense if you ask me.
www.cnn.com
