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Russia Plans War Against US Dollar

It benefit Russia, EU and China because it removes a competitor's edge in world economy. Take quantitative easing for example, US isn't the only nation running such a program. Japan and EU are doing the same thing. However, due dollar's status as world trade medium, the excess amount of dollar get absorbed by many countries around the world. EU and Japan, on the other hand, saw negative growth due to their QE program. Effectively, USD's status makes other countries footing US' bill. Of course, the other countries are not happy about it.

I am afraid that mischaracterizes the effect of QE worldwide. Here's the short version: the Federal Reserve buys bonds by printing money -> the sellers of bonds take the USD, then sell the USD against higher-yielding currencies in the so-called "carry trade" -> the avalanche of money into emerging markets' bond markets drives down interest rates in said emerging markets.

So you see, QE has benefited most countries. China didn't benefit because it artificially keeps its currency weak by buying UST. No one forces China to do that, so blaming the dollar's reserve status is a non sequitur.
 
It will be in the drawing boards for a long long time..
 
It has nothing to do with transaction costs. There might be two reasons that I can understand:
1, When US sanctions Iran all major banks are forbidden to wire the oil $ in and out Iran. Japan, India and China are dependent on Iranian oil. Japan could make other arrangement but not India nor China. Iran has to ship oil to India and China without receiving $$. Bit by bit China has got a big $ bill to pay to Iran. If Iran would accept RMB as payment, the problem disappears. This might be one of the reasons that many countries start to use bilateral currencies instead of $.

2, Because $ is the Only trade money, lots of people or countries reserve their gains in $. But they can do nothing when Feds print more green papers to devalue $, and hence, the savings of others.

Problem is world demand for dollar is huge. If big economies like China, Japan and India keep huge reserves in dollars, how will Russia or any other nation make any dent on hoarding of dollars.
 
I am afraid that mischaracterizes the effect of QE worldwide. Here's the short version: the Federal Reserve buys bonds by printing money -> the sellers of bonds take the USD, then sell the USD against higher-yielding currencies in the so-called "carry trade" -> the avalanche of money into emerging markets' bond markets drives down interest rates in said emerging markets.

So you see, QE has benefited most countries. China didn't benefit because it artificially keeps its currency weak by buying UST. No one forces China to do that, so blaming the dollar's reserve status is a non sequitur.

Yeah and afterwards when US raise interest rate backup, it sucks hot money right out of emerging country's market. Due to the size difference, the emerging market will suffer critical damage to its cash flow which lead to economic crisis. US can then acquire asset from these country at bankruptcy price. This has been demonstrated again and again, especially in 97 southeast Asia financial crisis. There is a reason why advanced economies like EU and China all take measurements to halt hot money flow into their market.

BTW, this is the reason why Chinese stock market has been kept artificially low since 2007. This was strategy of the financial attack against China in 2006 and the Chinese government responded by forcefully restraining the stock market and trap the hot money.

Basically, the hot money is like a drug, it may taste great in short term, it is detrimental to the emerging economy's health in the long run.
 
I am afraid that mischaracterizes the effect of QE worldwide. Here's the short version: the Federal Reserve buys bonds by printing money -> the sellers of bonds take the USD, then sell the USD against higher-yielding currencies in the so-called "carry trade" -> the avalanche of money into emerging markets' bond markets drives down interest rates in said emerging markets.

So you see, QE has benefited most countries. China didn't benefit because it artificially keeps its currency weak by buying UST. No one forces China to do that, so blaming the dollar's reserve status is a non sequitur.

By exporting inflation overseas?

By reducing the value of our dollar reserves, like a stealth tax?

And what about the Fragile Five?

This has nothing to do with the dollar or reserve currencies. Iran cannot move money because it has been disconnected from SWIFT as part of the sanctions program. That is why Iran has been using gold (the original reserve currency) to transact its trades--it doesn't depend on the banking system.

Isn't it a problem that American economic hegemony allows them to "cut off" countries from the international financial systems, whenever America feels like it?

Well, maybe not a problem for America, like the exorbitant privilege gained from having the dollar as the world's reserve currency. But for other countries, it's not such a rosy proposition.
 
By exporting inflation overseas?

By reducing the value of our dollar reserves, like a stealth tax?

And what about the Fragile Five?



Isn't it a problem that American economic hegemony allows them to "cut off" countries from the international financial systems, whenever America feels like it?

Well, maybe not a problem for America, like the exorbitant privilege gained from having the dollar as the world's reserve currency. But for other countries, it's not such a rosy proposition.

China is in a unique position, and suffers under QE. Most countries benefit from the capital inflows and lower interest rates that QE fosters. Of course, if those countries waste the opportunity to invest in projects that will raise potential GDP, they will suffer when QE ends; but this is no different from any boom and bust cycle. One must prepare for the bust while it's easy, during the boom.

America doesn't have hegemony over the world's financial system. The US plus EU only account for over a third of global GDP, in fact. These kinds of sanctions on Iran work because it's an "us or them" proposition, and most countries would prefer to do business with the US and EU--Iran just isn't worth it. There are some countries, like North Korea, that prefer to stay outside of this framework. It's not the choice I would make, but any country is free to leave at any time. If I recall correctly, Russia and China are trying to build alternatives to SWIFT, but it's yet to be seen if those alternatives will succeed.

Yeah and afterwards when US raise interest rate backup, it sucks hot money right out of emerging country's market. Due to the size difference, the emerging market will suffer critical damage to its cash flow which lead to economic crisis. US can then acquire asset from these country at bankruptcy price. This has been demonstrated again and again, especially in 97 southeast Asia financial crisis. There is a reason why advanced economies like EU and China all take measurements to halt hot money flow into their market.

BTW, this is the reason why Chinese stock market has been kept artificially low since 2007. This was strategy of the financial attack against China in 2006 and the Chinese government responded by forcefully restraining the stock market and trap the hot money.

Basically, the hot money is like a drug, it may taste great in short term, it is detrimental to the emerging economy's health in the long run.

Financial attack against China? I wasn't aware of that. Who was behind the attack, and what was the objective?

As for the rest, countries can, of course, restrain hot money. Then the avalanche of savings goes to the US, and these countries complain about our deficits. They can't have it both ways.
 
China is in a unique position, and suffers under QE. Most countries benefit from the capital inflows and lower interest rates that QE fosters. Of course, if those countries waste the opportunity to invest in projects that will raise potential GDP, they will suffer when QE ends; but this is no different from any boom and bust cycle. One must prepare for the bust while it's easy, during the boom.

Not necessarily:

Financial Times - Brazil’s finance chief attacks US over QE3

Guido Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister, has warned that the US Federal Reserve’s “protectionist” move to roll out more quantitative easing will reignite the currency wars with potentially drastic consequences for the rest of the world.

“It has to be understood that there are consequences,” Mr Mantega told the Financial Times in an interview on Thursday. The Fed’s QE3 programme would “only have a marginal benefit [in the US] as there is already no lack of liquidity . . . and that liquidity is not going into production.”

He said it was instead depressing the dollar and aimed at boosting US exports.

As finance minister under President Dilma Rousseff and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Mr Mantega has watched Brazil’s economy move from confident boom to near-stagnation this year.

Brazil of course is a member of both BRICS and the Fragile Five.

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If I recall correctly, Russia and China are trying to build alternatives to SWIFT, but it's yet to be seen if those alternatives will succeed.

We must succeed in this, we cannot depend on the good will of others. We can hope for it, not depend on it.

Who is to say America is not satisfied with sanctions on Iran, Russia and Syria? Maybe we will be next, who knows?

As for the rest, countries can, of course, restrain hot money. Then the avalanche of savings goes to the US, and these countries complain about our deficits. They can't have it both ways.

From my city:

Hong Kong feels hot money pains - CNTV English

The U.S. Fed Reserve's third round of quantitative easing is sending hot money inflows to emerging markets. A a report by Citibank says more than 80 percent of the money unleashed by this latest round of easing is bound for China.

Sun Lijian, deputy director of School of Economics, Fudan University, said, "Massive money inflows are Hong Kong’s biggest headache right now. So they hope to control the amount of investment from the mainland or overseas. The biggest impact on Hong Kong is increased HK dollar liquidity creating a housing market bubble."

The HK monetary authority has sold a total 14.4 billion Hong Kong dollars in several market interventions over the past week to prevent the currency from appreciating. As for the Chinese mainland, economists are saying massive capital inflows seem unlikely. It could be affected, however, by higher commodity prices resulting from hot money going into other emerging economies.
 
Financial attack against China? I wasn't aware of that. Who was behind the attack, and what was the objective?

As for the rest, countries can, of course, restrain hot money. Then the avalanche of savings goes to the US, and these countries complain about our deficits. They can't have it both ways.

The leader of the group is Goldman Sachs, the bankers involved are Paulson and co. The target is Chinese stock market. The goal was to replicate George Soros' success in destroying Southeast/part of East Asia's economy in 97. By crashing these countries' economy and cause these country's currency to hyper-depreciation against USD, these country's assets becomes ultra-cheap to be taken by US and IMF. Of course, due to China being socialist, the government responded with political intervention. This is one of the reasons China and Vietnam are much more resilient against the financial crisis in 97 than their neighbors.
 
Yeah and afterwards when US raise interest rate backup, it sucks hot money right out of emerging country's market. Due to the size difference, the emerging market will suffer critical damage to its cash flow which lead to economic crisis. US can then acquire asset from these country at bankruptcy price. This has been demonstrated again and again, especially in 97 southeast Asia financial crisis. There is a reason why advanced economies like EU and China all take measurements to halt hot money flow into their market.

BTW, this is the reason why Chinese stock market has been kept artificially low since 2007. This was strategy of the financial attack against China in 2006 and the Chinese government responded by forcefully restraining the stock market and trap the hot money.

Basically, the hot money is like a drug, it may taste great in short term, it is detrimental to the emerging economy's health in the long run.

This is a positive thing. Stock markets do not create value, very much similar to financial companies. Best to stick with hard assets m friend.
 
This is a positive thing. Stock markets do not create value, very much similar to financial companies. Best to stick with hard assets m friend.

Yep. The intended purpose of stock market is creating a way for companies to gather additional capital in the form of shares and stock trading is supposed to help transfer of capital. Making money off it really isn't the intended purpose.
 
Not necessarily:

Financial Times - Brazil’s finance chief attacks US over QE3



Brazil of course is a member of both BRICS and the Fragile Five.

-----------------------------

Understandable, but to blame QE for all of Brazil's problems is a clever bit of misdirection.

O’Neill Says Brazil Criticism of QE3 No Fix for Economic Woes - Bloomberg

With controls on inflows still in place, the real has weakened 24 percent since July 2011 and is little changed since QE3 was announced. Trade Minister Fernando Pimentel said Oct. 18 that the government wants to keep the currency stable at its current 2 reais per dollar rate so exports stay competitive amid the U.S.-led “monetary tsunami.”

...

“It’s a shame because it draws their attention away from doing other more important things, such astax reform and other measures that could improve competitiveness,” Franco, who is also the founder of asset manager Rio Bravo Investimentos, said in a phone interview from Rio de Janeiro.

O’Neill said Rousseff’s recent moves to lower borrowing costs and shift to private investors the burden for developing the country’s infrastructure were steps in the right direction. The central bank has reduced interest rates 525 basis points since August 2011, more than any other Group of 20 nation, to a record 7.25 percent.

Still, Brazil’s benchmark rate is the highest in the G-20 after Russia and India, making it a magnet for investors borrowing at near-zero rates in the U.S., Europe and Japan. At the same time a surge in public spending and loans by state banks to propel growth are adding to inflation that’s running above the government’s 4.5 percent target since September 2010, limiting the room for further rate cuts.

...

Another distortion is Brazil’s own protectionist push, which relieves pressure on manufacturers to become more competitive. Last month, the government raised tariffs on hundreds of goods ranging from petrochemicals to steel, drawing a complaint from U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk.

Let's not kid ourselves, everyone is involved in currency manipulation. The US does it, China does it, Japan does it, even Brazil does it. Brazil needs structural reform, not complaints about how US manipulation is more evil than Brazil's manipulation. Brazil can't respond effectively to the hot money effects on its economy because its economy cannot efficiently utilize capital.

That's not to say that I am a supporter of QE, because it's caused hidden inflation here in the US, which I resent.



We must succeed in this, we cannot depend on the good will of others. We can hope for it, not depend on it.

Who is to say America is not satisfied with sanctions on Iran, Russia and Syria? Maybe we will be next, who knows?

Politics is the art of the possible. China and Russia are simply too large and too integrated into the global economy to sanction without harming ourselves (or Europe). Iraq, Iran, Syria, North Korea are all fairly easy to sanction because they themselves have chosen to remove themselves from globalization in order to dominate their populations with an iron fist. China and Russia may be able to build an alternative to SWIFT, but that will come with its own costs, of course.




This is certainly unwelcome news, but isn't it the mirror image of Sydney's or Vancouver's housing bubbles?

Chinese Homebuyers Thronging Sydney Make Mini-Bubble Frenzy - Bloomberg

And then there's our previous discussion, where China can use its growing forex reserves (reserves acquired, in large part, through currency intervention) to acquire assets abroad.

QE is harming specific markets more than others because those markets are more open to capital. QE is a nice, simple explanation of everything that's going wrong in the world, but there are deep structural factors at play as well. QE wouldn't have nearly the effect we've seen on emerging markets if capital could be allocated more efficiently to profitable projects instead of inflating real estate bubbles.

The leader of the group is Goldman Sachs, the bankers involved are Paulson and co. The target is Chinese stock market. The goal was to replicate George Soros' success in destroying Southeast/part of East Asia's economy in 97. By crashing these countries' economy and cause these country's currency to hyper-depreciation against USD, these country's assets becomes ultra-cheap to be taken by US and IMF. Of course, due to China being socialist, the government responded with political intervention. This is one of the reasons China and Vietnam are much more resilient against the financial crisis in 97 than their neighbors.

It's hard to believe that the US would intentionally make Chinese exports even more competitive, leading to yet more offshoring of manufacturing. China does not allow unrestricted acquisition of assets, in any case, and strictly controls what sectors are open to foreign companies, and the degree of openness (minority stakes, JVs, majority stakes, full ownership). Such a conspiracy is not practicable.

Besides, the US didn't go on a buying spree of Asian assets after the Asian currency crisis. The US was busy with its dot-com bubble at the time, and saw itself as the greatest destination of capital.

and trading rubles in dollars to buy chinese products isnt?

Chinese and Russian companies can write contracts in any currency they want. Why would Russian companies use dollars to buy Chinese products?
 
It's hard to believe that the US would intentionally make Chinese exports even more competitive, leading to yet more offshoring of manufacturing. China does not allow unrestricted acquisition of assets, in any case, and strictly controls what sectors are open to foreign companies, and the degree of openness (minority stakes, JVs, majority stakes, full ownership). Such a conspiracy is not practicable.

Besides, the US didn't go on a buying spree of Asian assets after the Asian currency crisis. The US was busy with its dot-com bubble at the time, and saw itself as the greatest destination of capital.

Depreciation and hyper-depreciation are very different things. Slow depreciation allows the nation's economy to adapt to the change. Hyper-depreciation does not and what are you talking about, not acquiring assets? For example, per negotiation with IMF, Thailand has to "reorganize" 58 of its financial and monetary agency/company with emphasis on allowing foreign capital unrestricted investment into them. This is really a polite way of saying your country's financial flow is now my bitch.

Now, China is different from Thailand. Primarily because it is way larger and capable of policy intervention at levels not seen in other country aside from the old USSR. As a result, you can't really destroy Chinese economy the same way as you do with Thailand, but what was done by Goldman and co is hyper-heating the stock market. As we have seen in time and again, hyper-heating stock market tends to attract large amount of capital from the nation. In fact, it attracts so much capital there is often not enough capital left for investment into other sectors and when the stock market crashes, the capital accumulated will be gone and domestic investor are left without money to keep other parts of the economy running. While it may not outright destroy an economy like China, it can still do a lot of damage. This is why the Chinese government responded with this such force. BTW, the housing market in 2010 is pretty much the same thing. The Chinese government was only able to force Goldman Sachs away from Chinese real estate market (cutting off a hand in the process) after two years of non-stop multipronged policy intervention.
 
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