Russia cozying up to BJP?

[anant_s]

BJP alone will have to go through 170-180 and allies are with you if you have numbers.
Even mayawati to mamta will come to support him but question is of numbers.

With her tantrums , i sincerely hope Mamta stays out of NDA. She is almost anti-thesis to Modi

 

[Paan Singh]

With her tantrums , i sincerely hope Mamta stays out of NDA. She is almost anti-thesis to Modi

Well lets see but i m sure that BJP will sweep north india and have to go for alliance in south.
Mayawati is good option but BJP cant alone make govt.

 

[anant_s]

Well lets see but i m sure that BJP will sweep north india and have to go for alliance in south.
Mayawati is good option but BJP cant alone make govt.

That is the irony. At one time with Vajpayee sahab as head, BJP had an unchallenged image in UP and today despite having Rajnath Singh as party president, BJP (or for that matter congress) has any significant presence in UP, the same is true for Bihar. Unless one the two national parties wrest control over UP and Bihar, every general election will keep on churning troubled coalitions only.

 

[arp2041]

Ok rationally thinking, no one in BJP is publicly against Modi being Pm candidate, more importantly RSS supports it which will force everyone in BJP to toe the line.
However for Modi to be PM, BJP alone would have to win 270+ seats. Now this scenario considering the mess UPA is in and an eventual wipeout (not very likely) may not be enough to give BJP 270-280 LS seats we are talking about. In all likelihood, NDA could form a govt but partners would allow Modi to be PM is the million Dollar question (i mean there are pseudo secular parties and they would want to preserve their vote banks).
How i wish politics in our country was little less dirty

Nope, To make Modi the PM of India, BJP doesn't need 270+ seats, ofcourse to need simple majority a party or an alliance needs 272 in the lower house of the Parliament but we are forgetting that Post - 1990 is the era of coalition politics where 200 is the new 272. If BJP touches the mark of 200 come 2014, the secularist ideology goes for a toss & BJP can make anyone the PM of India it wishes. Many Political parties which have supported BJP in the past will be more than willing to support BJP again, since in the era of Coalitions, one party doesn't necessarily needs a simple majority anymore, politicians just have to judge the flow of the wind is in what direction, & it is of no doubt whatsoever that if BJP will win 200+ seats, it will only be because of people's assumption that Modi will be made the PM, now no party can go against the wishes of the people of India.

If we look at the trends which the latest India Today survey showed, NDA (BJP, JDU, SS, AD) as of now (when they haven't disclosed there leader) is winning 208 seats in which BJP will get around 160+ seats, this figure is only rising from the 2010 surveys of IT, so even if the status quo is maintained (i.e. no disclosure of leader & no change in NDA) than also NDA can end up with 225+ seats ( i m even assuming of a simple majority for NDA given that analyzing last few state elections have shown that the Party/alliance seen close to getting a majority (in surveys) have been given a thumping victory by the people, eg. SP in UP, BJP in Gujarat, etc.).

Now if BJP declares Modi as the PM candidate & NDA becomes NDA - JDU, but than BJP tally will only increase (maybe cross magic figure of 200) even in Bihar, as some surveys suggests that Modi is equally favored in Bihar as in other parts of India, so it will be loss for JDU & not BJP.

+ there is every possibility of MNS & AIADMK joining NDA before elections.

Given that BJP will rise as the largest party after elections, no other party can ignore it & they will be forced to form a coalition. As it is, in Politics it's not about IDEOLOGY but about POWER.

 

[arp2041]

That is the irony. At one time with Vajpayee sahab as head, BJP had an unchallenged image in UP and today despite having Rajnath Singh as party president, BJP (or for that matter congress) has any significant presence in UP, the same is true for Bihar. Unless one the two national parties wrest control over UP and Bihar, every general election will keep on churning troubled coalitions only.

@anant_s, if you analyze the voting pattern of the people of India than you will see that the people vote differently for State elections & general elections, the same congress which has no presence in UP whatsoever & won only 27 odd seats in 400 seat assembly of UP (7% seats) in 2012 UP elections had won 21 seats out of 80 seats (25+%) in 2009 general elections in UP, clearly the people of UP know that when it comes to sate elections, both BJP & Congress doesn't stand a chance to win so they din't wasted there vote, on the other hand when there was high probability of Congress coming to power in 2009 General elections, they raised the no. of seats of Congress. Believe me, u'll see the same trend vis-a-vis BJP come 2014.

 

[anant_s]

Nope, To make Modi the PM of India, BJP doesn't need 270+ seats, ofcourse to need simple majority a party or an alliance needs 272 in the lower house of the Parliament but we are forgetting that Post - 1990 is the era of coalition politics where 200 is the new 272. If BJP touches the mark of 200 come 2014, the secularist ideology goes for a toss & BJP can make anyone the PM of India it wishes. Many Political parties which have supported BJP in the past will be more than willing to support BJP again, since in the era of Coalitions, one party doesn't necessarily needs a simple majority anymore, politicians just have to judge the flow of the wind is in what direction, & it is of no doubt whatsoever that if BJP will win 200+ seats, it will only be because of people's assumption that Modi will be made the PM, now no party can go against the wishes of the people of India.

If we look at the trends which the latest India Today survey showed, NDA (BJP, JDU, SS, AD) as of now (when they haven't disclosed there leader) is winning 208 seats in which BJP will get around 160+ seats, this figure is only rising from the 2010 surveys of IT, so even if the status quo is maintained (i.e. no disclosure of leader & no change in NDA) than also NDA can end up with 225+ seats ( i m even assuming of a simple majority for NDA given that analyzing last few state elections have shown that the Party/alliance seen close to getting a majority (in surveys) have been given a thumping victory by the people, eg. SP in UP, BJP in Gujarat, etc.).

Now if BJP declares Modi as the PM candidate & NDA becomes NDA - JDU, but than BJP tally will only increase (maybe cross magic figure of 200) even in Bihar, as some surveys suggests that Modi is equally favored in Bihar as in other parts of India, so it will be loss for JDU & not BJP.

+ there is every possibility of MNS & AIADMK joining NDA before elections.

Given that BJP will rise as the largest party after elections, no other party can ignore it & they will be forced to form a coalition. As it is, in Politics it's not about IDEOLOGY but about POWER.

Thanks for your detailed explaination.
However i beg to differ on few issues (MHO only):
1. I don't see JD (U) loosing in Bihar. it may not be able to repeat past performance but Nitish has done work and there isn't a viable alternate to him
2. From the bitter experiences of UPA 2 performances, i hope BJP wins majority of seats on its own. I mean we've seen what coalition partners can do. NDA won't be much different if the support BJP requires for simple majority goes beyond 50-60 seats.
3. MNS won't join NDA till Shiv sena is around and similarly AIADMK & DMK cannot exist co-exist in a coalition.
I suppose final arithmetic would depend on following factors:

a. How much ground BJP looses to Yedurappa in Karnataka and Congress to YSR congress in Andhra.
b. How many seats Left wins, it is unlikely they will support either congress or BJP
c. What impact does Aam Adami party make on urban electorate
d. Congress may have some trick up their sleeves (remember Agriculture loan waival). Although considering the economically tough time, any populist scheme looks unlikely.
e. How does UP vote. Both Mulayam and Mayawati can win handsomely but their support to NDA atleast as far as Sp is concerned looks unlikely. Mayawati may lean towards NDA.

As things stand today the only results that look certain are:
1. MP& Chattisgarh: BJP
2. Orissa: BJD
3. Gujarat: BJP
4. Tamil nadu: AIADMK
5. Bihar: JD (U)

 

[anant_s]

@anant_s, if you analyze the voting pattern of the people of India than you will see that the people vote differently for State elections & general elections, the same congress which has no presence in UP whatsoever & won only 27 odd seats in 400 seat assembly of UP (7% seats) in 2012 UP elections had won 21 seats out of 80 seats (25+%) in 2009 general elections in UP, clearly the people of UP know that when it comes to sate elections, both BJP & Congress doesn't stand a chance to win so they din't wasted there vote, on the other hand when there was high probability of Congress coming to power in 2009 General elections, they raised the no. of seats of Congress. Believe me, u'll see the same trend vis-a-vis BJP come 2014.

Well Said, I agree.
But i suppose one reason for congress winning more than expected vote share in last LS was Rahul Gandhi (not that same can be repeated), but trouble is (& i'm sure you would agree) that electorate votes for a leader who is face of party. In this way taller the leader, more are chances of votes in your favor. In UP neither BJP or congress have any leader of this stature. Some people may not like this, but even in Gujarat, a lot of people vote for Modi and not necessarily in the name of BJP.

 

[arp2041]

Thanks for your detailed explaination.
However i beg to differ on few issues (MHO only):
1. I don't see JD (U) loosing in Bihar. it may not be able to repeat past performance but Nitish has done work and there isn't a viable alternate to him

Again, we are talking about voting pattern of people of Bihar when it comes to General Elections, & for that they favor Modi for PM:

Narendra Modi is Bihar's choice for PM: Poll

2. From the bitter experiences of UPA 2 performances, i hope BJP wins majority of seats on its own. I mean we've seen what coalition partners can do. NDA won't be much different if the support BJP requires for simple majority goes beyond 50-60 seats.

I understand, but to be really fair, BJP touching 272 mark seems an impossibility since they don't have any presence in NE & South India.

3. MNS won't join NDA till Shiv sena is around and similarly AIADMK & DMK cannot exist co-exist in a coalition.

I am of the opinion that before 2014 elections, MNS will merge in SS, since it will be a lost of both if they fight elections seperately + Jayalalitha is highly favorable of Modi, thats why there is huge probability of her joining NDA under Modi's leadership.

I suppose final arithmetic would depend on following factors:

a. How much ground BJP looses to Yedurappa in Karnataka and Congress to YSR congress in Andhra.

Again, Yeddy is also favorable of Modi, if BJP elects him the leader, i m sure Yeddy will support BJP in GE - 2014.

b. How many seats Left wins, it is unlikely they will support either congress or BJP

Left is on it's last legs as far as WB is concerned, IMHO.

c. What impact does Aam Adami party make on urban electorate.

None. I am sure about that, u'll see for urself in Delhi elections before 2014 comes.

d. Congress may have some trick up their sleeves (remember Agriculture loan waival). Although considering the economically tough time, any populist scheme looks unlikely.

BJP demands CBI probe into farm loan waiver scheme 'scam' | Business Standard

e. How does UP vote. Both Mulayam and Mayawati can win handsomely but their support to NDA atleast as far as Sp is concerned looks unlikely. Mayawati may lean towards NDA.

My opinion doesn't change as far as UP is concerned, BJP will surely win 25+ seats this time around.

As things stand today the only results that look certain are:
1. MP& Chattisgarh: BJP
2. Orissa: BJD
3. Gujarat: BJP
4. Tamil nadu: AIADMK
5. Bihar: JD (U)

My Take (for GE - 2014):

Chattisgarh, MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Punjab, Goa, Bihar, Jharkhand - Either BJP or NDA emerging as the largest Party/alliance.

Crucial UP - BJP 25+ seats for sure.

MY HUMBLE OPINION ONLY

 

[Shardul.....the lion]

Its serious,

Chinese and Russians are cozying up with Modi and BJP.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Even if Modi comes in- is he a magic bullet? The BJP/NDA is not nessercarily going to be be any cleaner than the UPA are they? The BJP/NDA is full of right-wing corrupt nut jobs and has their own share if dynasties. Does the NDA/BJP have suitable candidates for positions bellow PM? Ie will the BJP/NDA have good Defence and Finance ministers?


Modi is the lesser of two evils maybe.

 

[Paan Singh]

Even if Modi comes in- is he a magic bullet? The BJP/NDA is not nessercarily going to be be any cleaner than the UPA are they? The BJP/NDA is full of right-wing corrupt nut jobs and has their own share if dynasties. Does the NDA/BJP have suitable candidates for positions bellow PM? Ie will the BJP/NDA have good Defence and Finance ministers?


Modi is the lesser of two evils maybe.

NDA is much better than UPA.If Upa spends 1 Rs on general public then NDA spends 2-3.
No body is voting for NDA but for Modi.

 

[KS]

Tell me who is against? a single one from BJP

Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Seshadri chari for example.

 

[Abingdonboy]

@ks


If Modi comes to power do you see him bringing about the next round of economic reforms India despretly needs?


And do you see him battling corruption in India?

 

[Tshering22]

About time they do... Russia has to realize that going hand in glove with the now-in-trouble Nehru-Gandhi dynasty will not get them anywhere in the future. Russian leadership post Cold War has been a thinking man's government and has radically changed its leftist-emotional approach to a pragmatic hard-nosed business-getting government.

This realization of theirs will get them into good books of Narendra Modi and they better do because he's going to be our PM.

@ks


If Modi comes to power do you see him bringing about the next round of economic reforms India despretly needs?


And do you see him battling corruption in India?

Yeah mate, we do. He's the only one who cleaned the Cons-gress party out of Gujarat and see where that state is. Even if it has not become like South Korea or Japan, it is way ahead of rest of India under his leadership. Hardly any power shortage, relatively clean cities, (compared to north India) minimal levels of ghastly crime, enterprising people, emerging education and manufacturing centre, increasing FDI interest in the state... all this comes under the man's leadership.

It is rare for a lot of non-cosmopolitan northeasterners to know his work but one thing is common in our region; we all admire sincere work for the country and people regardless of where the person is from. Modi has simply proved it.

 

[Koovie]

@ks


If Modi comes to power do you see him bringing about the next round of economic reforms India despretly needs?


And do you see him battling corruption in India?

Modi can have as many dreams about the economy as he wants, but without a sufficient majority, he wont get anywhere. I am sure a great and world wide respected economist like MMS would have implemented many great things with a decent majority and without his Italian mistress.