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The straws in the wind are indicating a more pro-active engagement between
Russia and India’s principal opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Narendra Modi, the BJP’s strongest prime ministerial candidate for the next
general elections (due in May 2014), has already emerged as the pivotal figure
in the Russia-BJP engagement.
The Russians sense that the BJP may well wrest power in the next elections from
the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), a Congress-led coalition in power since 2004.
So don’t be surprised if Russian diplomats start courting the BJP rather pro-actively
in the weeks and months to come. The politico-diplomatic grapevine in the Indian
capital has it that the Russians would soon be stepping up their engagement with
the BJP top brass in an incremental manner.
No Zero-Sum Game
However, it is not as if that Russia has some special love for the BJP or vice versa.
It is true that the Indo-Russian traditionally close ties were put back on the rails
during the government of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee when President
Vladimir Putin made a landmark visit to Delhi in October 2000. But it is also true
that the Vajpayee regime supported the American missile defence initiative,
leaving the Russians shocked and stunned.
The primary goal of foreign policy for any nation is its perceived national
interests. Russia’s strategic interests in India and India’s strategic interests
in Russia are so deep and so mature that they are not predicated on which
particular political party or dispensation is at the helm of affairs in India.
In Modi’s direction
There are indicators which should not be ignored and which suggest a slow
and steady synergy between Russia and Modi.
The recently concluded Vibrant Gujarat Summit witnessed participation by
four Russian regions -- Moscow, St Petersburg, Astrakhan and Yaroslavl.
Director of the Department for Economic Development of the Yaroslavl Region,
Alexander Shutov, went on record as saying that Indian entrepreneurs are
considering setting up companies in the Yaroslavl Region to process milk and
produce car parts and sports equipment.
Indian companies are looking at various options for the implementation of
projects in Russia: they can either set up companies with 100 percent Indian
capital or invest in joint ventures. They can also have manufacturing contracts
with other companies that operate production sites in the region.
In January 2013, the vice-governor of the Astrakhan Region, Konstantin
Markelov, during his participation at the Vibrant Gujarat Summit, wished
Narendra Modi the best for “India’s general elections next year.”
Gujarat and Astrakhan signed a memorandum of understanding of co-operation
in 2001. There have been regular delegation-level visits between the areas
since then, with Modi visiting Astrakhan in 2006. The two provinces look to
sign a MoU between Gazprom and Gujarat State Petroleum Corp.
Moscow-based software firm Spirit DSP, a voice and video over IP (VVoIP)
engines provider, is entering the Indian market in partnership with Infotel
Broadband Services, a Reliance Industries-owned company that will launch its
fourth generation (4G) technology-based broadband services in Mumbai, Delhi
and Jamnagar (in Gujarat).
Reliance Industries Ltd recently formally announced a $450-million joint venture
with Russian petrochemical company Sibur, for setting up a one hundred thousand
tonne butyl rubber plant at Reliance's Jamnagar refinery. The plant is expected
to be commissioned by the second half of 2014 (calendar). The joint venture has
been named as Reliance Sibur Elastomers Pvt Ltd.
The Modi Factor
The latest power politics played out by Modi in the Indian capital on February
6 through his politically-loaded lecture at the prestigious Shri Ram College of
Commerce (SRCC) and Modi’s rapidly ascending political graph have not gone
unnoticed by the Russians. The Russians cannot be faulted if they feel that the
UPA government is a sinking ship, though that does not mean that Russia would
be distancing itself from Manmohan Singh’s government.
Modi has already emerged as the most luminous beacon of hope for the BJP and
a red rag for the Congress party. The assessment of an influential section of the
BJP, which is fast gaining currency, is that the BJP can ride to power without
needing support from any allies if it projects Modi as its prime ministerial candidate.
This is despite the fact that the Congress is all set to be led by Rahul Gandhi in
the next general election.
Modi No Longer an International Pariah
Modi is no longer an international pariah that the international diplomatic
community made him after India’s one of the worst communal riots in Gujarat
under his chief ministership a decade ago. British High Commissioner James
Bevan signalled the international trend when he travelled to Gandhinagar to
meet Modi two months before Gujarat elections, conveying not only British
government’s confidence in Modi’s upcoming electoral victory but also signalling
London’s re-engagement with Gujarat under Modi.
The 27-nation European Union followed in the United Kingdom’s footsteps only
after his formal victory. Weeks after he took over as Gujarat CM for the third time,
the EU formally lifted its decade-old diplomatic boycott and the ambassadors of
all the countries of the European Union gathered at German Ambassador Michael
Steiner’s residence on January 7 to host a lunch with Modi.
The United States, however, has remained steadfast in its anti-Modi stance
and made clear that Modi would be unwelcome in the US.
Will Russia be a Step Ahead of EU?
There is speculation that Russia may even go a step ahead of EU and engage
with the BJP in an incremental manner so that it does not float an impression
that the Russian diplomats in India are going out of their way in wooing the BJP.
It is only to keep their diplomatic gunpowder, so to say, dry.
The Russians’ likely upcoming strategy goes far beyond the pale of diplomatic
symbolism sent out by BJP stalwart L.K. Advani. In an unprecedented gesture,
completely unheard of in diplomatic circles, Russian Ambassador to India Alexander
Kadakin brushed aside diplomatic protocol and touched Advani’s feet while visiting
the leader to wish him on his 85th birthday in November 2012. Press Trust of India
had reported that Kadakin was one of the first visitors to reach Advani's residence
and soon after alighting from his car, Kadakin presented Advani with a bouquet
and then bent down to touch Advani's feet to seek his blessings.
Kadakin’s gesture was obviously individual-specific and not politically-loaded
because it is public knowledge that Modi has turned frigid towards Advani who
once used to be his benefactor.
The Russian embassy in New Delhi, however, has strongly refuted reports
that the Russian diplomats plan to step up their engagement with the BJP
because it is likely to win the next general election.
Sergey Karmalito, Senior Counsellor and Spokesman in the Russian embassy
in New Delhi, told this writer that such imputations and interpretations were
not correct. “This will be an incorrect way of looking at the things. We are
engaged with all important political parties of India, whether it is the Left, or
the BJP or the Congress or Mulayam Singh’s party.”
Karmalito also played down the episode about Kadakin touching Advani’s feet
and remarked thus: “That was a special event, the 85th birthday of Mr Advani.”
The Russian diplomat added that Kadakin had not met Advani since then.
Coming next: Russia cozying up to BJP? | indrus.com
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