Rush Doshi: Head of China policy at NSC

[FuturePAF]

Rush Doshi is the head of China policy at the US NSC (National Security Council)

This is probably a good book to read for those wonder what Biden’s policy is going to be toward China. If I had to guess, the author; an Indian-American, is probably going to advocate for enhanced “cooperation” via the Quad. Cooperation can mean anything and everything but not nothing.

For China, to tie down India, building up Pakistan is probably the most cost effective manner, similar to the US providing aid (via us weapons and investment) to Israel until the Arab countries were willing to make the Abraham accords, or similar to building up South Korea and Japan to contain the Soviets, PRC, and DPRK.

Now, before anyone says this is an appeal/begging; should look at the three examples I gave above. Countries that had the will to fight but not the means, like Ukraine. I recall a Chinese official saying Pakistan is there Israel. So now maybe the time for them to double down on that. In turn, Pakistan would make the structural changes to never need to go to the IMF again and have the means to do more regional initiatives, such as a Karakoram Railway, or a rail line from Karachi to Gwadar and on to Taftan, do use to develop the Reko-Diq mine as well as make the SEZs on the coast and not inland where it is more costly to make profitable.

Investment for these rail lines (which would mostly go to Chinese companies anyway) could be strategically important for both Pakistan and China in the near future.

Should China provide a steady supply of military equipment and FDI (not loans) to Pakistan; on the order of $5-10 Billion a year for a few decades. A lot of the money could go to Chinese companies to just set equipment, so the money would not leave China, and $6-10 billion ($3 billion for the military and $3 for the civilian economy) is only the equivalent 2-4% of the PLA’s budget, but considering how far that kind of money can go in Pakistan, it could make a considerable difference. Just look at how for a few billion dollars front the IMF has such a large impact on Pakistan’s stability. Investment like this for the next 20-25 years should help Pakistan catch back up with India on a GDP per capita basis, as it would be a stable base investment that would motivate other investors; as proposed for BRI 2.0. By mid-century India’s population is expected to peak, while Pakistan’s population is expected to grow for the next 75 years. Basically I’m saying Chinese money should be turned into mostly grants (with funds to Chinese companies). With this kind of breathing room, Pakistan can spend on social services (which would help better stabilize Pakistan’s western provinces and employ youth that could potential be recruited by miscreant groups), which will bring out the full potential of Pakistan and that is a growing economy China can do more business in; providing artificial intelligence based data integration engines for all Pakistani sectors, helping to upskill Pakistani business and workers. Products and services Pakistani business and workers/students could then afford to buy.

This is the long term kind of investments that build up the Asian tigers into economic and military powers. It would also be the level of investment that would open up Chinese companies to have the opportunity for “smart growth” in Pakistan. The only caveat would be to build in safeguards to prevent corruption and embezzlement by local elites. Smart growth would also be locating and building up Pakistani talent for joint ventures in tech firms inside Pakistan, similar to all the Tech MNC with R&D offices in Israel.

Also, the US wrote off Ukraine’s debt to allow them to focus on fighting Russia. Should China write off Pakistan’s debt so it can pour resources to build up the economy and better contain India?

10:15-11:42

The following video is more informative of how he things China sees the world.

Btw @ 34:20 he credits Minnie Chan on the carrier acquisition story, so you can tell that opinions like Minnie Chan via Doshi make there way up to official recommendations and get presented to the government. So for those that say Minnie Chan should not be believed, should consider that her views are heard in policy formation process.

 

[Turingsage]

Smart as a Whip. Speaks and writes Mandarin. The Administration is lucky to have him.

The long game is on this years best seller list and is essential reading for anyone who wants to comprehend contemporary China and the vaulting ambition of its autocratic leadership.

 

[nahtanbob]

Rush Doshi is the head of China policy at the US NSC (National Security Council)

This is probably a good book to read for those wonder what Biden’s policy is going to be toward China. If I had to guess, the author; an Indian-American, is probably going to advocate for enhanced cooperation via the Quad. At that point, building up Pakistan to contain India is probably the most cost effective manner, similar to the US providing aid (via us weapons and investment) to Israel until the Arab countries were willing to make the Abraham accords, or similar to building up South Korea and Japan to contain the Soviets, PRC, and DPRK.

Now, before anyone says this is an appeal/begging; should look at the three examples I gave above. Countries that had the will to fight but not the means, like Ukraine. I recall a Chinese official saying Pakistan is there Israel. So now maybe the time for them to double down on that. In turn, Pakistan would make the structural changes to never need to go to the IMF again and have the means to do more regional initiatives, such as a Karakoram Railway, or a rail line from Karachi to Gwadar and on to Taftan, do use to develop the Reko-Diq mine as well as make the SEZs on the coast and not inland where it is more costly to make profitable.

Investment for these rail lines (which would mostly go to Chinese companies anyway) could be strategically important for both Pakistan and China in the near future.

Should China provide a steady supply of military equipment and FDI (not loans) to Pakistan; on the order of $5-10 Billion a year for a few decades. A lot of the money could go to Chinese companies to just set equipment, so the money would not leave China, and $6-10 billion ($3 billion for the military and $3 for the civilian economy) is only the equivalent 2-4% of the PLA’s budget, but considering how far that kind of money can go in Pakistan, it could make a considerable difference. Just look at how for a few billion dollars front the IMF has such a large impact on Pakistan’s stability. Investment like this for the next 20-25 years should help Pakistan catch back up with India on a GDP per capita basis, as it would be a stable base investment that would motivate other investors; as proposed for BRI 2.0. By mid-century India’s population is expected to peak, while Pakistan’s population is expected to grow for the next 75 years. Basically I’m saying Chinese money should be turned into mostly grants (with funds to Chinese companies). With this kind of breathing room, Pakistan can spend on social services, which will bring out the full potential of Pakistan and that is a growing economy China can do more business in; providing artificial intelligence based data integration engines for all Pakistani sectors, helping to upskill Pakistani business and workers. Products and services Pakistani business and workers/students could then afford to buy.

Any arrangement that makes Pakistan an ally of China at the expense of India is bad for the Chinese. China is in the business of becoming a hyper-power. A simple question for China is whether a hostile India helps or hinders them in the purpose. China is still trying to figure out things.

 

[Turingsage]

A simple question for China is whether a hostile India helps or hinders them in the purpose. China is still trying to figure out things

I do not believe that. My understanding is that India's POTENTIAL poses the greatest impediment from China gaining complete hegemony.
China will and continues to make that concerted effort up to the point of outright conflict but never to cross that line.
For India it must GROW in China's shadow without ALSO crossing that line into open conflict.
China's relations with India will NEVER improve until the VAST GAP between the 2 nations is narrowed SUBSTANTIALLY.
China only recognises power, and all calculations that China makes regarding India are based on that pivot.

 

[FuturePAF]

I do not believe that. My understanding is that India's POTENTIAL poses the greatest impediment from China gaining complete hegemony.
China will and continues to make that concerted effort up to the point of outright conflict but never to cross that line.
For India it must GROW in China's shadow without ALSO crossing that line into open conflict.
China's relations with India will NEVER improve until the VAST GAP between the 2 nations is narrowed SUBSTANTIALLY.
China only recognises power, and all calculations that China makes regarding India are based on that pivot.

Which is why China should help narrow the gap between India and Pakistan per capita. Along with population growth, a Pakistan that is a fifth to a quarter of India’s GDP will be a large market in its own right.

Sure, China would want to sell more products and services to India, but as India more and more rebuffs those ventures and builds up against China on the LAC, the more China will have to plan for the means to contain India.

India is going to try to become less reliant on China. I don’t see that reversing, regardless of what China does, because India needs to use its demographic dividend before its to develop by 2047, as Modi proposed.

Do you think India would buy hydropower from Chinese dams in Tibet on rivers that flow into India? Beyond the natural growth of trade, that is the kind of venture China wants to do with India.

Any arrangement that makes Pakistan an ally of China at the expense of India is bad for the Chinese. China is in the business of becoming a hyper-power. A simple question for China is whether a hostile India helps or hinders them in the purpose. China is still trying to figure out things.

China prospects in a large growth trade with India will probably taper off, but China needs to make BRI viable. One way is through Pakistan.

 

[Turingsage]

Do you think India would buy hydropower from Chinese dams in Tibet on rivers that flow into India?

Yes it is possible in the future IF AND WHEN that rivalry is subdued by India having narrowed the gap with China.
China and India ARE rational powers.

Which is why China should help narrow the gap between India and Pakistan per capita. Along with population growth, a Pakistan that is a fifth to a quarter of India’s GDP.

China would never do that EVER. Remember my words. China is more than happy to see Pakistan allied in its endeavor to slow down the rise of India but it CANNOT create another powerful state that holds ISLAM central to its raison detre .
It is trying its best to bring inhabitants of Xinyang into line via mass imprisonment torture reeducation and teaching a Islam approved by the communist party.
China KNOWS how Pakistan jumps from one owner to another depending on who offers them money. So we have seen Pakistan the most allied ally of USA for many many decades. USA has paid $67 billion to Pakistan in that time.

(((((((((((((((Between 1951 and 2011, the US sent in $67 billion. The US withdrew the last of its troops from Afghanistan in August 2021.Dr Farrukh Saleem
)))))))))))))))

That by the way is OLD money worth a lot more than todays dollar. You also at various points became Arabs Turks etc. Pakistan CREATED the Taliban , wined and dined Osama, nearly every Islamic terrorist got trained in Pakistan at some stage. Insurgencies were propagated from Pakistan into Tajikistan Uzbekistan Russia Kashmir to name a few.
The Chinese are rational people they are not going to arm a idiot nation to potentially create Islamic mayhem in China as Pakistan has done elsewhere.

China will continue to apply pressure through various rational actions. India's job is to side step them and TRY to close the gap.

India's course is strewn with many potholes and sinkholes , there is no certainty that the gap can be closed.

 

[FuturePAF]

Yes it is possible in the future IF AND WHEN that rivalry is subdued by India having narrowed the gap with China.
China and India ARE rational powers.


China would never do that EVER. Remember my words. China is more than happy to see Pakistan allied in its endeavor to slow down the rise of India but it CANNOT create another powerful state that holds ISLAM central to its raison detre .
It is trying its best to bring inhabitants of Xinyang into line via mass imprisonment torture reeducation and teaching a Islam approved by the communist party.
China KNOWS how Pakistan jumps from one owner to another depending on who offers them money. So we have seen Pakistan the most allied ally of USA for many many decades. USA has paid $67 billion to Pakistan in that time.

(((((((((((((((Between 1951 and 2011, the US sent in $67 billion. The US withdrew the last of its troops from Afghanistan in August 2021.Dr Farrukh Saleem
)))))))))))))))

That by the way is OLD money worth a lot more than todays dollar. You also at various points became Arabs Turks etc. Pakistan CREATED the Taliban , wined and dined Osama, nearly every Islamic terrorist got trained in Pakistan at some stage. Insurgencies were propagated from Pakistan into Tajikistan Uzbekistan Russia Kashmir to name a few.
The Chinese are rational people they are not going to arm a idiot nation to potentially create Islamic mayhem in China as Pakistan has done elsewhere.

China will continue to apply pressure through various rational actions. India's job is to side step them and TRY to close the gap.

India course is strewn with many potholes and sinkholes , there is no certainty that the gap can be closed.

I can’t say you don’t give a frank view from the Indian point of view, and there are probably a significant number of Chinese officials that hold those views. Although the changing geo-strategic realities may have them recalculating what risks to take.

To be honest, perhaps they will go via Central Asian - Trans-Afghan Rail route if they actually hold that fear although they at putting more trust on the Afghans and Central Asians then just the Pakistanis (even though it’s in Pakistan’s own interest to address that concern). We will have to wait and see, as they will probably have to get BRI back on track to stimulate growth and have redundancy in their trade corridors. These ventures can have many partners, so the costs and risks can be shared. The outreach of the Chinese to the Taliban probably indicates they are finding a new way to accommodate the Muslim majority countries on their western border vis a vi their economic aspirations.

But as far as grants and military aid go, the investment in Pakistan won’t be enough to go on the offensive against India, only enough to comprehensively defend itself, akin to Israel and the US. Economic aid would be to get the economy on a stable footing so Pakistan doesn’t have to make concessions to the IMF, so it can spend more on social services and therefore stabilize restive areas. The projects would probably be on a BOT model, so that if they are used, they make money and recoup their investment. Share the risk and the reward.

These kinds of aid will probably remain below the presumed thresholds that would undermine relations and trade with India. The economic aid, especially a rail route through Afghanistan to Central Asia would actually be potentially beneficial to India. So the Pakistan-China relationship it’s not always zero sum for India.

 

[Valiant]

I do not believe that. My understanding is that India's POTENTIAL poses the greatest impediment from China gaining complete hegemony.
China will and continues to make that concerted effort up to the point of outright conflict but never to cross that line.
For India it must GROW in China's shadow without ALSO crossing that line into open conflict.
China's relations with India will NEVER improve until the VAST GAP between the 2 nations is narrowed SUBSTANTIALLY.
China only recognises power, and all calculations that China makes regarding India are based on that pivot.

I think India's admission into QUAD is an overt admission that it cannot solely contain China but instead needs help from the old guard in thwarting the new challenger. India has staked itself as the mercenary on Asian soil like so may others and realizes that the gap between itself and China will only continue to grow. Potential is all India has at this point

 

[epebble]

Yes it is possible in the future IF AND WHEN that rivalry is subdued by India having narrowed the gap with China.
China and India ARE rational powers.


China would never do that EVER. Remember my words. China is more than happy to see Pakistan allied in its endeavor to slow down the rise of India but it CANNOT create another powerful state that holds ISLAM central to its raison detre .
It is trying its best to bring inhabitants of Xinyang into line via mass imprisonment torture reeducation and teaching a Islam approved by the communist party.
China KNOWS how Pakistan jumps from one owner to another depending on who offers them money. So we have seen Pakistan the most allied ally of USA for many many decades. USA has paid $67 billion to Pakistan in that time.

(((((((((((((((Between 1951 and 2011, the US sent in $67 billion. The US withdrew the last of its troops from Afghanistan in August 2021.Dr Farrukh Saleem
)))))))))))))))

That by the way is OLD money worth a lot more than todays dollar. You also at various points became Arabs Turks etc. Pakistan CREATED the Taliban , wined and dined Osama, nearly every Islamic terrorist got trained in Pakistan at some stage. Insurgencies were propagated from Pakistan into Tajikistan Uzbekistan Russia Kashmir to name a few.
The Chinese are rational people they are not going to arm a idiot nation to potentially create Islamic mayhem in China as Pakistan has done elsewhere.

China will continue to apply pressure through various rational actions. India's job is to side step them and TRY to close the gap.

India's course is strewn with many potholes and sinkholes , there is no certainty that the gap can be closed.

If the last year is any pointer, Pakistan at present can best be described as a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. Anyone thinking of long-term policy at this juncture needs to get their head examined.

 

[nahtanbob]

I do not believe that. My understanding is that India's POTENTIAL poses the greatest impediment from China gaining complete hegemony.
China will and continues to make that concerted effort up to the point of outright conflict but never to cross that line.
For India it must GROW in China's shadow without ALSO crossing that line into open conflict.
China's relations with India will NEVER improve until the VAST GAP between the 2 nations is narrowed SUBSTANTIALLY.
China only recognises power, and all calculations that China makes regarding India are based on that pivot.

Well let me rephrase it -

China and India relations can improve if China is so far ahead of everyone else. At that point it is game over. There is no potential for conflict

The tricky part for China-India ties is that if things are in a state of flux and USA is still around competing. If China squeezes India America is happy to oblige

Which is why China should help narrow the gap between India and Pakistan per capita. Along with population growth, a Pakistan that is a fifth to a quarter of India’s GDP will be a large market in its own right.

China prospects in a large growth trade with India will probably taper off, but China needs to make BRI viable. One way is through Pakistan.

Pakistan cannot pay for fuel with 200 million people. With 400 million people it is screwed unless some new technology comes along

I never understand this infatuation with BRI. Suez Canal is one of the most key trade routes. It generates $10 billion in revenues for the Egyptians. Without Russia and Iran the BRI is dead in the long term.
In the short/intermediate term it is as good as dead given Russia-Ukraine war and Iran's current status

Pakistan is a peer rival to China in Central Asia. China would not want to share anything with Pakistan

I think India's admission into QUAD is an overt admission that it cannot solely contain China but instead needs help from the old guard in thwarting the new challenger. India has staked itself as the mercenary on Asian soil like so may others and realizes that the gap between itself and China will only continue to grow. Potential is all India has at this point

QUAD is insurance policy for all members

 

[Leishangthem]

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Smart as a Whip. Speaks and writes Mandarin. The Administration is lucky to have him.

The long game is on this years best seller list and is essential reading for anyone who wants to comprehend contemporary China

physiognomy is a science,the guy is a snake oil merchant look, typical of the byproducts from the system ,with the eerie blank eyes and the creepy smile.

I do not believe that. My understanding is that India's POTENTIAL poses the greatest impediment from China gaining complete hegemony.

You are explaining Indian sentiment but without strategic basis.

China's relations with India will NEVER improve until the VAST GAP between the 2 nations is narrowed SUBSTANTIALLY.

Does the relationship between US & China seem sweet with close gap in power between the two nation?
when was the last time China treated a western delegate with closer power gap better than tiny states that people don't even know about ? Did China back down before much superior US+UN when the US crossed Chinese red line in korean peninsula?

It's the contrary,the Indians doesn't know where they stand before China,just because of similar population size,and under Western instigation, India took China as a competitor and rebuffed china from the time China was percieved as weaker in 50s,from housing anti china cia hawk dalai lama to refusing conclusion to border disputes based on British unilateral and illegal border construction. All the nation bordering China settled border issue with negotation,China offered the same to India,but no surprise this unreasonable & utterly deluded top brass of the state torn it up.

The Indians has shown lack in capability of introspection , India under the veil of west worshipping colonized lens never took important decisions with courtesy toward china,courtesy is vital for any mutually sustainable relationship between states .
If you think power alone fixes national relationship ,you have utterly failed in understanding geopolitics.

QUAD is insurance policy for all members

Quad is a stereotypical gang of losers that seek to form a gang since they are upto no good all alone.

 

[Turingsage]

China and India relations can improve if China is so far ahead of everyone else. At that point it is game over. There is no potential for conflict

China could argue we already are here. BUT we are not and history has shown there are many twists and turns. I beleive just during the many years before the second world war where the democracies took the rise of fascism with dislike but no collective action a similar situation today pertains. Autocratic govt are girdling their loins and will eventually commit act or acts that will garner the democracies into collective action.
I do not hope for this, I dread it.

physiognomy is a science,the guy is a snake oil merchant look, typical of the byproducts from the system ,with the eerie blank eyes and the creepy smile.

You are a moron as you have a photo of someone completely different. The rest of your childish fantasies are best left to you.

 

[Leishangthem]

China could argue we already are here. BUT we are not and history has shown there are many twists and turns. I beleive just during the many years before the second world war where the democracies took the rise of fascism with dislike but no collective action a similar situation today pertains. Autocratic govt are girdling their loins and will eventually commit act or acts that will garner the democracies into collective action.
I do not hope for this, I dread it.


You are a moron as you have a photo of someone completely different. The rest of your childish fantasies are best left to you.

? ofcourse it's someone different you genius.

 

[nahtanbob]

China could argue we already are here. BUT we are not and history has shown there are many twists and turns. I beleive just during the many years before the second world war where the democracies took the rise of fascism with dislike but no collective action a similar situation today pertains. Autocratic govt are girdling their loins and will eventually commit act or acts that will garner the democracies into collective action.
I do not hope for this, I dread it.

The game is not over. China has not shown it can stay at the top. India has barely got its act together

 

[Turingsage]

The game is not over. China has not shown it can stay at the top. India has barely got its act together

I will drink to that