Rush Doshi: Head of China policy at NSC

[nahtanbob]

Quad is a stereotypical gang of losers that seek to form a gang since they are upto no good all alone.

Another turd giving advice on geopolitics. You should stick to begging bowls

 

[tower9]

I do not believe that. My understanding is that India's POTENTIAL poses the greatest impediment from China gaining complete hegemony.
China will and continues to make that concerted effort up to the point of outright conflict but never to cross that line.
For India it must GROW in China's shadow without ALSO crossing that line into open conflict.
China's relations with India will NEVER improve until the VAST GAP between the 2 nations is narrowed SUBSTANTIALLY.
China only recognises power, and all calculations that China makes regarding India are based on that pivot.

All nations only recognize power. Name one significant power that doesn't just recognize power, go ahead. You think India or the US base their foreign policies on "feels".

 

[Turingsage]

All nations only recognize power. Name one significant power that doesn't just recognize power, go ahead.

Bhutan and Tibet

 

[tower9]

Bhutan and Tibet

I said significant powers.

 

[Turingsage]

Their morality and ethics alone make them significant giants amongst Humanity. They shame us in our pettiness.

I said significant powers.

 

[tower9]

Their morality and ethics alone make them significant giants amongst Humanity. They shame us in our pettiness.

Sure. Would you like India to trade places with Bhutan?

 

[Leishangthem]

Another turd giving advice on geopolitics. You should stick to begging bowls

CryABit

 

[Chat SAMOSA]

Any arrangement that makes Pakistan an ally of China at the expense of India is bad for the Chinese. China is in the business of becoming a hyper-power. A simple question for China is whether a hostile India helps or hinders them in the purpose. China is still trying to figure out things.

Frankly I think China India and Russia (and to a some limited extent the US) have reached an understanding at the macros.

The game is not over. China has not shown it can stay at the top. India has barely got its act together

India is quite far away and needs few more structural changes. China almost got the externals right but regressing internally.

Assuming Europe is not a total loss, US of A can ascend further if they can find a Reagan or Clinton

 

[FuturePAF]

The game is not over. China has not shown it can stay at the top. India has barely got its act together

The world can see the difficulties India is going through as well as what other nations have done to keep investment in their countries (including western countries trying to reverse some globalization and on shore industries), which is why Indian strategies to attract FDI will be tough and make it harder for India to get “its act together”. But that is a topic for another thread.

In an earlier post you said, you mentioned the suez. BRI is not an alternative to routes like suez (the maritime road in OBOR/BRI extends to the Chinese port in Greece), but a way for China to get around the entire info-pacific dilemma. A route, that shift some trade, through china’s west and into Western Asia will circumvent most nations that hope to contain it. The goal is to reach Africa and Europe. The route through Russia is meant for Europe, and could be re-routed through Central Asia, Iran, and Turkey.

While the route to Africa could go through Pakistan to Karachi and Gwadar, and by ship to the East African ports China runs, As well as a route to Persian Gulf and the Red Sea and beyond if necessary. Potentially vital for oil and gas supplies in the future.

Building up the Pakistan navy for example would be to support a joint mission to guard these SLOCs (and not having to deploy any Chinese warships to Pakistani ports). Building up the army and economy would be to guard the GLOCs through Pakistan. So it’s really an economic insurance policy for China that benefits both countries.

 

[casual]

US and China are laser focused on competing against each other right now. It is indeed a golden opportunity for India right now to develop and resolve long standing disputes.

 

[nahtanbob]

The world can see the difficulties India is going through as well as what other nations have done to keep investment in their countries (including western countries trying to reverse some globalization and on shore industries), which is why Indian strategies to attract FDI will be tough and make it harder for India to get “its act together”. But that is a topic for another thread.

In an earlier post you said, you mentioned the suez. BRI is not an alternative to routes like suez (the maritime road in OBOR/BRI extends to the Chinese port in Greece), but a way for China to get around the entire info-pacific dilemma. A route, that shift some trade, through china’s west and into Western Asia will circumvent most nations that hope to contain it. The goal is to reach Africa and Europe. The route through Russia is meant for Europe, and could be re-routed through Central Asia, Iran, and Turkey.

While the route to Africa could go through Pakistan to Karachi and Gwadar, and by shift to the East African ports China runs. As well as a route to Persian Gulf and the Red Sea and beyond if necessary.

Building up the Pakistan navy for example would be to support a joint mission to guard these SLOCs. Building up the army and economy would be to guard the GLOCs through Pakistan. So it’s really an economic insurance policy for China that benefits both countries.

The only problem is that Pakistan is not going to war for China. Maybe with enough carrots against India. Not against America

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Another turd giving advice on geopolitics. You should stick to begging bowls

Sour grapes make the best whine

If QUAD was indeed insignificant, why his mighty Hanland pressurized Rudd Govt to quit QUAD?

WikiLeaks cables cast fresh light on coup against former Australian PM Rudd

The Quad had first met in May 2007 and held joint naval exercises, together with Singapore, in the Bay of Bengal in September 2007. Unsurprisingly, Beijing was hostile to the four-nation alliance that was obviously geared towards limiting Chinese hegemony in East Asia. The Chinese government labelled the Quad an “Asian NATO”. Stephen Smith’s announcement that Australia was withdrawing from the group was issued at a joint press conference with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi. Smith openly referred to China’s concerns with the four-party alliance, but claimed that “the United States has indicated a similar disposition in recent weeks [i.e., not to continue the Quad] and I think that’s been welcomed by all concerned”.

Only to fail with new Australian Govt

 

[nahtanbob]

Sour grapes make the best whine

Is QUAD was indeed insignificant, why his might Hanland pressurize Rudd Govt to quit QUAD?

All it took was a single QUAD meeting with India cheerleading to make Pakistan at least feign public neutrality in US-China cold war

US and China are laser focused on competing against each other right now. It is indeed a golden opportunity for India right now to develop and resolve long standing disputes.

That is good advice for India. It takes two to resolve something

 

[crankthatskunk]

Rush Doshi is the head of China policy at the US NSC (National Security Council)

This is probably a good book to read for those wonder what Biden’s policy is going to be toward China. If I had to guess, the author; an Indian-American, is probably going to advocate for enhanced “cooperation” via the Quad. Cooperation can mean anything and everything but not nothing.

For China, to tie down India, building up Pakistan is probably the most cost effective manner, similar to the US providing aid (via us weapons and investment) to Israel until the Arab countries were willing to make the Abraham accords, or similar to building up South Korea and Japan to contain the Soviets, PRC, and DPRK.

Now, before anyone says this is an appeal/begging; should look at the three examples I gave above. Countries that had the will to fight but not the means, like Ukraine. I recall a Chinese official saying Pakistan is there Israel. So now maybe the time for them to double down on that. In turn, Pakistan would make the structural changes to never need to go to the IMF again and have the means to do more regional initiatives, such as a Karakoram Railway, or a rail line from Karachi to Gwadar and on to Taftan, do use to develop the Reko-Diq mine as well as make the SEZs on the coast and not inland where it is more costly to make profitable.

Investment for these rail lines (which would mostly go to Chinese companies anyway) could be strategically important for both Pakistan and China in the near future.

Should China provide a steady supply of military equipment and FDI (not loans) to Pakistan; on the order of $5-10 Billion a year for a few decades. A lot of the money could go to Chinese companies to just set equipment, so the money would not leave China, and $6-10 billion ($3 billion for the military and $3 for the civilian economy) is only the equivalent 2-4% of the PLA’s budget, but considering how far that kind of money can go in Pakistan, it could make a considerable difference. Just look at how for a few billion dollars front the IMF has such a large impact on Pakistan’s stability. Investment like this for the next 20-25 years should help Pakistan catch back up with India on a GDP per capita basis, as it would be a stable base investment that would motivate other investors; as proposed for BRI 2.0. By mid-century India’s population is expected to peak, while Pakistan’s population is expected to grow for the next 75 years. Basically I’m saying Chinese money should be turned into mostly grants (with funds to Chinese companies). With this kind of breathing room, Pakistan can spend on social services (which would help better stabilize Pakistan’s western provinces and employ youth that could potential be recruited by miscreant groups), which will bring out the full potential of Pakistan and that is a growing economy China can do more business in; providing artificial intelligence based data integration engines for all Pakistani sectors, helping to upskill Pakistani business and workers. Products and services Pakistani business and workers/students could then afford to buy.

This is the long term kind of investments that build up the Asian tigers into economic and military powers. It would also be the level of investment that would open up Chinese companies to have the opportunity for “smart growth” in Pakistan. The only caveat would be to build in safeguards to prevent corruption and embezzlement by local elites. Smart growth would also be locating and building up Pakistani talent for joint ventures in tech firms inside Pakistan, similar to all the Tech MNC with R&D offices in Israel.

Also, the US wrote off Ukraine’s debt to allow them to focus on fighting Russia. Should China write off Pakistan’s debt so it can pour resources to build up the economy and better contain India?

10:15-11:42

The following video is more informative of how he things China sees the world.

Btw @ 34:20 he credits Minnie Chan on the carrier acquisition story, so you can tell that opinions like Minnie Chan via Doshi make there way up to official recommendations and get presented to the government. So for those that say Minnie Chan should not be believed, should consider that her views are heard in policy formation process.

This is all good, but how could China trust Pakistan!! Whose COAS runs to USA on any given chance, ask for their help, provide them basis and no-fly zone.
While a PM of Pakistan, had family and commercial ties with India, invite Modi to family wedding, employ Indian nationals in their sugar mills and provide visas to them without any security checks.
This looks like a nation which wants to contain India!! What about the assistance from China stolen by the political theives!!

 

[nahtanbob]

This is all good, but how could China trust Pakistan!! Whose COAS runs to USA on any given chance, ask for their help, provide them basis and no-fly zone.
While a PM of Pakistan, had family and commercial ties with India, invite Modi to family wedding, employ Indian nationals in their sugar mills and provide visas to them without any security checks.
This looks like a nation which wants to contain India!! What about the assistance from China stolen by the political theives!!

China and Pakistan have mutual interests with respect to India. But Pakistan does not want America helping India.

What assistance from China stolen by political thieves ? It is more like your elite scheming with Chinese companies/Chinese government to dump
inflated CPEC deals on the Pakistani public. Chinese are active participants in the whole scheme.