Rise of PLAAF : Implications for India

[sancho]

Which may well come with PAF sabre rattling IAF, bleeding their asset allocation capability towards China.

Very doubtful, unless sombody very silly is in control of Pakistans forces again! Why would anybody in Pakistan would want to make your country to be a target for our forces and missiles, by getting involved in a Indo-Chinese war, without Pakistan being targeted? The only smart move would be, to sit tied and enjoy the show, while your enemy is facing a much stronger enemy.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Nearly the entire ballistic missile arsenal is facing taiwan,the missiles that are largest in number (in hundreds) are short-mid range ones.Mass Redeployment of these assets to indian sector would be noted early.And without surprise victory in mountain warfare is difficult as defender has defensive advantage.Targeting delhi is option mostly in fanboy books,because once the missile is in the air, indian air defence won't know if its nuke armed or not.And fearing a mass first strike may launch retaliatory nuke strike which would be of no good to any side.

This is true, apart from the bit about the first strike. Since both China and India have "No First Use" policies, and China is known for using conventional warheads on ballistic missiles, there is little to no chance that a nuclear war would start. Unless of course, India disregarded their own NFU and fired a nuke first.

Otherwise, both sides having a No First Use policy rules out the use of nukes, except in some very unlikely scenarios.

Also, China has a significant advantage in terms of nukes, as mentioned by the Indian Naval Chief recently.

On air cover our airforce has an advantage over plaaf on this sector due to altitude limits.But again plaaf can counter with missiles.but again missile redeployment will be noted.About infrastructure dev we are much behind-true.But china has logistics problem as well.once it enters indian territory its supply lines will run through mountains and a very roads/highways which being static targets are vulnerable to PGM strikes and brahmos.And without supplies even largest army is ineffective.Also large scale chinese military buildup would be noted from satellites,because tibvet is elevated flat treeless area..its difficult to conceal concentration.
On the weakness side i consider the current hapless state of our artillery as biggest weakness,mountain battles are decided by arty and infantry..not tanks.And we have a problem here.

So u see both sides have restrictions..and probably recognize them.which is why despite friction there has been no full scale conflict.

We have the high ground on the Tibetan Plateau, which means Indian ground radars will be coming up against a sheer mountain wall, and will be much less effective.

It's true that China will face significant logistical problems once inside Indian territory, however we realize that, and thus the conflict is more likely to be confined to a border skirmish. China has no interest or need in pushing deep into the Indian heartland, which would anyway be a possible trigger for a large-scale nuclear war if we did that.

 

[Indo-guy]

Very doubtful, unless sombody very silly is in control of Pakistans forces again! Why would anybody in Pakistan would want to make your country to be a target for our forces and missiles, by getting involved in a Indo-Chinese war, without Pakistan being targeted? The only smart move would be, to sit tied and enjoy the show, while your enemy is facing a much stronger enemy.

But it's also very true that two front war puts us into great difficulty ..with all our assets and strengths virtually diminished

 

[Kompromat]

@sancho . Doubtful to you maybe, to me its wishful thinking on your part.

We are not going to leave China alone in the battlefield. We are already practicing together for a two fron war against India. All 3 Shaheen series exercises were India centric.

We will join China against a war with India. It maybe our best chance to liberate Kashmir as well as seeking vengence for the brutality you have inflicted upon our peole there.

 

[SrNair]

More than the PLAAF, the concern for India should be the fact that China has the largest inventory in the world of non-nuclear ballistic missiles. Added to our inventory of cruise missiles and rocket artillery (all with more than enough range to target Delhi which is only 300 km from the border)... it means a first strike using these thousands of missiles could overwhelm India's airfields to NE India, rendering their ground troops without air cover.

The next issue would be the border infrastructure, which currently is massively in China's favor. Allowing us to bring far greater concentrations of troops and equipment to any point along the LAC than India can.

India's advantage is that China is mostly focused on the Pacific. India could do what we did these past few decades, essentially keeping their heads down and avoiding grabbing attention. Then use the time to build up their economy to double-digit growth, as well as inducting greater numbers of domestic weapons platforms. And building up their military production capacity, so they can produce very large numbers of indigenous platforms if necessary.

It is not that simple because New Delhi is our capital .Things will easily spiral out in to a nuclear strike.And that will a disaster to the entire region.

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

This is true, apart from the bit about the first strike. Since both China and India have "No First Use" policies, and China is known for using conventional warheads on ballistic missiles, there is little to no chance that a nuclear war would start. Unless of course, India disregarded their own NFU and fired a nuke first.

Otherwise, both sides having a No First Use policy rules out the use of nukes, except in some very unlikely scenarios.

Also, China has a significant advantage in terms of nukes, as mentioned by the Indian Naval Chief recently.



We have the high ground on the Tibetan Plateau, which means Indian ground radars will be coming up against a sheer mountain wall, and will be much less effective.

It's true that China will face significant logistical problems once inside Indian territory, however we realize that, and thus the conflict is more likely to be confined to a border skirmish. China has no interest or need in pushing deep into the Indian heartland, which would anyway be a possible trigger for a large-scale nuclear war if we did that.

Firing a ballistic missile at the capital is about as extreme as it can get to stretching limit.When the missile is in the air,it means opposing side has already taken the first strike.So an indian response would be on par with our doctrine.Problem is no one would know if its nuke or not,do u think indian defence elite would take the chance that their defence capability be compromised on the 'hope' that chinese were playing by the rules.China does have an advantage in nukes,but india possesses enough that an exchange would be catastrophic for both countries.A few nukes on the riverine heartland of both countries would lead to mass starvation,water poisoning.raditaion...total disaster.

Not really tibet plateau is flat,so indian long range radars can actually pick up PLAAF aircraft taking off without terrain obstructing it.On our side its much more rugged..this makes construction of highways like on chinese side much more difficult..but on plus side gives defensive advantages in concealment and cover,plus chinese radar would have trouble picking up IAF movements because the hills/mountains will reflect the waves.IAF aircraft can use low flying using the cover of these landscape and sneak up on intruding PLAAF fighters without PLAAF ground control/awacs alerting them.PLAAF also has some other problems such as lack of OBOGs in bulk of its aircraft,and altitude penalty decreasing load and performance due to the geography.Assuming chinese fighters join in from chengdu military district it can still hurl max 16-20 squadrons at us simultaneously with bases packed.Also only its propeller driven AWACS has been deemed operational in tibet alitude..the il-76 based one not.So on air force front i think IAF is pretty confident on giving a good account of itself.Missiles are the x factor.No one really knows how exactly they will perform as mass missile attacks in major conventional wars have not yet happened.And bases can be repaired quite quickly..while missiles are not unlimited.I'm still more worried about arty deficiency.In mountain terrain its always good old infantry.One more thing is the PLA platoon/squad drone-i don't know if this is being used on a mass scale.Its very good recon advantage in inf fight.

On Border skirmish ,has happened before..usually nothing significant.I too think it won't go anything full blown.

 

[SrNair]

@sancho . Doubtful to you maybe, to me its wishful thinking on your part.

We are not going to leave China alone in the battlefield. We are already practicing together for a two fron war against India. All 3 Shaheen series exercises were India centric.

We will join China against a war with India. It maybe our best chance to liberate Kashmir as well as seeking vengence for the brutality you have inflicted upon our peole there.

Then we can involve US in to this conflict.They dont directly involve in this mess and we wont allow that.But they can use their diplomatic clout to restrain Pakistan in its own limit.

This is true, apart from the bit about the first strike. Since both China and India have "No First Use" policies, and China is known for using conventional warheads on ballistic missiles, there is little to no chance that a nuclear war would start. Unless of course, India disregarded their own NFU and fired a nuke first.

Otherwise, both sides having a No First Use policy rules out the use of nukes, except in some very unlikely scenarios.

Also, China has a significant advantage in terms of nukes, as mentioned by the Indian Naval Chief recently.



We have the high ground on the Tibetan Plateau, which means Indian ground radars will be coming up against a sheer mountain wall, and will be much less effective.

It's true that China will face significant logistical problems once inside Indian territory, however we realize that, and thus the conflict is more likely to be confined to a border skirmish. China has no interest or need in pushing deep into the Indian heartland, which would anyway be a possible trigger for a large-scale nuclear war if we did that.

Numbers are doesnt matter when it comes to nuclear bombs.A 50 bombs is enough to destroy both India and China once and for all.

 

[sancho]

@sancho . Doubtful to you maybe, to me its wishful thinking on your part.

We are not going to leave China alone in the battlefield. We are already practicing together for a two fron war against India. All 3 Shaheen series exercises were India centric.

We will join China against a war with India. It maybe our best chance to liberate Kashmir as well as seeking vengence for the brutality you have inflicted upon our peole there.

Nice post if "pride" is the deciding factor, but not really logical, nor very thoughtful if your leaders would act as blindly. The fact is, that Pakistan would have much more to loose than China has, the same reason why India would not get involved in a US-Chinese war, since we are next door neighboors which offers China far more targets in India, than in the US.
So take that into consideration too and not only pride factors. It's easy to say we will fight with China, but you also have to be ready to take huge losses of lifes. Btw, yes I do wish that Pakistan don't get involved in such a war, but not because I see much to worry from PAF, rather than I think it would be the end of the whole region, when 3 nuclear powers goes to fight each others in such a close proximity. There won't be any winners for sure!

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Firing a ballistic missile at the capital is about as extreme as it can get to stretching limit.

Of course, firing Rocket artillery, cruise missiles or conventional ballistic missiles at New Delhi would be a highly unlikely event. Only if something happened to escalate the war to that level.

Otherwise those missiles would mainly be used to take out Indian airfields and military infrastructure in the NE region.

Missiles are the x factor.No one really knows how exactly they will perform as mass missile attacks in major conventional wars have not yet happened.And bases can be repaired quite quickly..while missiles are not unlimited.I'm still more worried about arty deficiency.In mountain terrain its always good old infantry.One more thing is the PLA platoon/squad drone-i don't know if this is being used on a mass scale.Its very good recon advantage in inf fight.

Missiles may not be unlimited, but considering our existing inventory and our manufacturing base (which can be switched to missile production in wartime) there will be more than enough to achieve what we need to do.

On Border skirmish ,has happened before..usually nothing significant.I too think it won't go anything full blown.

Yes, luckily both sides have acted responsibly, and thus war has been averted.

China's priorities are mostly in the Pacific, so a war with India would be an unwelcome distraction from our main goals.

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

@sancho . Doubtful to you maybe, to me its wishful thinking on your part.

We are not going to leave China alone in the battlefield. We are already practicing together for a two fron war against India. All 3 Shaheen series exercises were India centric.

We will join China against a war with India. It maybe our best chance to liberate Kashmir as well as seeking vengence for the brutality you have inflicted upon our peole there.

Well,if our situation is seriously threatened by such a war..u know it will be end for all 3.Exchange of 300-400 nuke warheads between the combatants would permanently destroy the ecosystem of these areas.

 

[he-man]

China would focus on making india its ally rather that making a new sworn enemy like japan.
With india towards japan etc is just not good for china ,,,,,,,so i am hoping for an olive branch towards india from chinese side and india under modi may actually take trade to a new level.

so all in all,,,,we need to beef up our defence but i think the border will remain peaceful

 

[Scorpion666]

More than the PLAAF, the concern for India should be the fact that China has the largest inventory in the world of non-nuclear ballistic missiles. Added to our inventory of cruise missiles and rocket artillery (all with more than enough range to target Delhi which is only 300 km from the border)... it means a first strike using these thousands of missiles could overwhelm India's airfields to NE India, rendering their ground troops without air cover.

The next issue would be the border infrastructure, which currently is massively in China's favor. Allowing us to bring far greater concentrations of troops and equipment to any point along the LAC than India can.

India's advantage is that China is mostly focused on the Pacific. India could do what we did these past few decades, essentially keeping their heads down and avoiding grabbing attention. Then use the time to build up their economy to double-digit growth, as well as inducting greater numbers of domestic weapons platforms. And building up their military production capacity, so they can produce very large numbers of indigenous platforms if necessary.

The biggest mistake one does is that of underestimate someone !!!
India and China are enjoying a period of growth ... China is in a very high trejoctery ... And the last thing that any one wants is a war where 2.5 billon people face annihilation !! So all the expensive toys are a political tool .... Sit back and enjoy ... And yes don't underestimate your neighbours to the south

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

Of course, firing Rocket artillery, cruise missiles or conventional ballistic missiles at New Delhi would be a highly unlikely event. Only if something happened to escalate the war to that level.

Otherwise those missiles would mainly be used to take out Indian airfields and military infrastructure in the NE region.



Missiles may not be unlimited, but considering our existing inventory and our manufacturing base (which can be switched to missile production in wartime) there will be more than enough to achieve what we need to do.



Yes, luckily both sides have acted responsibly, and thus war has been averted.

China's priorities are mostly in the Pacific, so a war with India would be an unwelcome distraction from our main goals.

Yes missiles are the main threat in this sector,no doubt about that.But redeployment remains a factor.Also their true impact remains till now an unknown.
It's actually good for us,that china focuses on the pacific too.War with china would not be something to welcome here either,despite some fanboys.We are a status quo power,so inactivity or tranquility suits us fine.

 

[he-man]

@sancho . Doubtful to you maybe, to me its wishful thinking on your part.

We are not going to leave China alone in the battlefield. We are already practicing together for a two fron war against India. All 3 Shaheen series exercises were India centric.

We will join China against a war with India. It maybe our best chance to liberate Kashmir as well as seeking vengence for the brutality you have inflicted upon our peole there.

dude the business between india and china is 100 billion$ right now,,,,,may go to 200 billion in next 10 years.

they won't have anything to do with pakistan if that happens

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Yes missiles are the main threat in this sector,no doubt about that.But redeployment remains a factor.Also their true impact remains till now an unknown.
It's actually good for us,that china focuses on the pacific too.War with china would not be something to welcome here either,despite some fanboys.We are a status quo power,so inactivity or tranquility suits us fine.

Our main goal is economic development, and our main threats come from the Pacific.

Any war with India will threaten to derail our main objectives, and that would be a very big problem for us. That is why we cannot afford to be lax in any direction, nothing will stop our goal of becoming a developed country in the next 1-2 decades.