Revised Data of Import of only goods stand at August 2021 is 6.5 billion dollar, Deficit is at 4.3 billion dollar and CAD will above June 2021 numebrs

[HammerHead081]

Indian false flager

Even though what he has been telling us is correct and at the end of the thread we all agreed with his assessment???

 

[Desprado]

Even though what he has been telling us is correct and at the end of the thread we all agreed with his assessment???

You can screenshot now PM khan will do IMF program what ever it takes no matter what he have to do because even he know now that currency has devalued too much, import products dollar prices too high and CAD is getting very high. Which is why our Shaukat Tarin has already booked the ticket of Qatar Airways for Washington to meet Gerry Rice (IMF Spoke person) one on one to limit the harsh condition but we will start even if IMF does not limit the harsh condition.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

It will decline more if the currency devalues to 170-175. Major inflation will come and growth will be full stop because everything will be expensive and imports will be waste of time.

Government has put emergency on food items and this is only done by country when it is BOP aur economic crisis like Argentina or Sri Lanka.

Also increase in electricity prices for industries so exports hurts more than Imports and CAD remains the issue.

The pain will start from next month as inflation will be very high and IMF program will start with many hard condition, which will and we have to do it and we have no choice. What ever it takes we will start IMF program because every import products prices are very high and we do not have dollars and we have to pay 14.5 billion debt this FY. Moreover, PTI will never call early election as 8.5% inflation is too high.

It can only get worse from here. Prudence is securing whatever you can before the situation deteriorates further and PTI faces the fate of the PPP of 2012.
Reduction in imports would also adversely impact the revenue generation effort, which has also been boosted by the devaluation of PKR (10% in the past few months), making it Asia's worst-performing currency from the best performing within a few months) and the ever-burgeoning import bill.

 

[Desprado]

It can only get worse from here. Prudence is securing whatever you can before the situation deteriorates further and PTI faces the fate of the PPP of 2012.

Sir major problem is that PTI was to depended on devaluation and never brought industries reform. Devaluation never solves the problems as it only a tool not policy as our friends from PTI forgot. You need Policy and harsh conditions, and hard harsh reforms, which no government is able to do as only Shaukat Aziz did and Ayub Khan but no democracy government ever brought export reforms and always depend on imports growth and short term solution.

 

[Desprado]

So you agree CAD is bad..uptill now zero % patwaris agree to this

I am in your group..i believe 2% CAD is okay but pushing it 6% is psuhing your luck(like 2018)at current gdp levels 6b$ per year of CAD is acceptable and will not drop the reserves
So what was the deficit in last 6 months?
Trade deficit of GOODS is meaningless..doesnt mean anything

Sir it will only create more BOP crisis as our CAD wide up we need to borrow more and pay more. It will be same cycle as this growth is only depened on imports are export pace very short to meet imports.


Coming to reserve. If reserve are sames means nothing as it measured with imports cover. If imports average increase than we will have a massive massive BOP even bigger than 2018 as our import cover cannot below 2.1 months cover. Right now we have 3.1 months because import average is 6.3 billion dollar since June 2021.

If our imports go below 2.1 months cover than Lenders will stop lending, our credit ratings negative, system of stock market will crash and we will cannot issue any international bonds.

 

[Imran Khan]

CAD was killing the economy and will kill gov have to do something urgent

 

[Maula Jatt]

Gov wont go anywhere, there's no opposition left

its basically open field to implement tough reforms, it'll be a bummer if they cant (I am not ruling em out though- infact I am hopeful, I know their focus/goal is in the right place but laying groundwork for it is the hard part)
don't think they should be too worried about political capital, just do the tough work required

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Sir major problem is that PTI was to depended on devaluation and never brought industries reform. Devaluation never solves the problems as it only a tool not policy as our friends from PTI forgot. You need Policy and harsh conditions, and hard harsh reforms, which no government is able to do as only Shaukat Aziz did and Ayub Khan but no democracy government ever brought export reforms and always depend on imports growth and short term solution.

My comment was in another context. Import substitution and instituting export-led growth is a time-consuming process. ICT exports could be increased rapidly. However, this government was too late to recognize its potential. Just look at how they did away with that Google executive who was taken on board to lead the digital transformation due to internal political pushback in the party. Now, look at the type of seed money (investment) startups are attracting. This could have been amplified had there been a concerted effort to improve the digitization of the country's commercial scene and governance. Today venture capitalist is sitting at heaps of capital for investment, but this might not remain the case forever.

 

[Shahzaz ud din]

Even though what he has been telling us is correct and at the end of the thread we all agreed with his assessment???

I do not mind having an unbiased academic discussion. But this person suddenly appeared from somewhere on this forum and started posting this kind of bull shit on a regular basis. He is posting simultaneously the same shit on other forums too. It means he is on a special assignment or has some agenda behind this. There are so many good things happening too but he never bothered to comment on those.

 

[Waterboy]

Gov wont go anywhere, there's no opposition left

its basically open field to implement tough reforms, it'll be a bummer if they cant (I am not ruling em out though- infact I am hopeful, I know their focus/goal is in the right place but laying groundwork for it is the hard part)
don't think they should be too worried about political capital, just do the tough work required

Why would we vote for something that's failing miserably. Selling petty lies and shit. PTI will be dusted before 2022.

 

[Maula Jatt]

Why would we vote for something that's failing miserably. Selling petty lies and shit. PTI will be dusted before 2022.

we'll see, there's no practical option left in the opposition who can form a government
unless its a coalition

 

[Pak Nationalist]

I do not mind having an unbiased academic discussion. But this person suddenly appeared from somewhere on this forum and starting posting this kind of bull shit on a regular basis. He is posting simultaneously the same shit on other forums too. It means he is on a special assignment or has some agenda behind this. There are so many good things happening too but he never bothered to comment on those.

If there are fair elections, people will wipe PTI. Intentions, unfortunately, do not win elections. Improving people's standard of living does. Unfortunately, we have no good alternatives either. PML N might not have learned lessons from its mistakes on the economic front either.

 

[Waterboy]

If there are fair elections, people will wipe PTI

Exactly. PTI fanboys are smoking some good shit. This government has nothing to show. No concrete changes or legislation. Bas incompetence

 

[Maula Jatt]

If there are fair elections, people will wipe PTI. Intentions, unfortunately, do not win elections. Improving people's standards of living does. Unfortunately, we have no good alternatives either. PML N might not have learned lessons from its mistakes on the economic front either.

* good alternatives as in people who can win elections

 

[TigerOfMysore]

How can anyone here make any meaningful argument unless they know in relative detail what the import bill constitutes.
Export numbers need to grow, but what if the import bill is related to manufacturing and will be a leading indicator for increase in exports.
So though I agree that this is not a good picture, I think unless we know what the import bill constitutes we cannot arrive at a conclusion one way or the other.