Report on two-child policy submitted to decision-makers

[Zsari]

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

That's why India doesnt control its population...
The most important thing is citizens' life quality,too crowded isnt good for us..
国家整体就算人多看起来强大，别人照样看不起你，而且这样还很危险。

vv,do u know that the total China's land that can grow rice even less than India...Although our land looks very big...But many western province,like Tibet(Population density):2.1,Qinghai:7,Xinjiang:13.2,Inner Mongolia:20..
plateau,desert,cold area...
@Bussard Ramjet

Dont say import,it's ridiculous.
So,where r u?Disappearing again??I hate you!!!

Everything is a function of technology and circumstances.

Why China can easily sustain a population of 1.5-2 billion by 2100?

1. Chinese agriculture yields right now are around a half to third of those of industrialized countries, which can change. Chinese agriculture can in effect produce twice-thrice just by catching up to west.
2. Global Warming will make the west more hospitable because of changing climate patterns.
3. Technology changes will in the future make unhospitable land hospitable. For example the Gobi desert. All it really lacks is water. If you have water there you can have agriculture, and sustain population. In the future, energy can be so cheap, that you can literally boil the water from oceans and transfer it there.

 

[Zsari]

Everything is a function of technology and circumstances.

Why China can easily sustain a population of 1.5-2 billion by 2100?

1. Chinese agriculture yields right now are around a half to third of those of industrialized countries, which can change. Chinese agriculture can in effect produce twice-thrice just by catching up to west.
2. Global Warming will make the west more hospitable because of changing climate patterns.
3. Technology changes will in the future make unhospitable land hospitable. For example the Gobi desert. All it really lacks is water. If you have water there you can have agriculture, and sustain population. In the future, energy can be so cheap, that you can literally boil the water from oceans and transfer it there.

To plan for population growth base on assumptions for the future is like taking cash out of bank of money you don't have. China will worry about what population can be sustained by 2100 in 2100.

 

[Jlaw]

To plan for population growth base on assumptions for the future is like taking cash out of bank of money you don't have. China will worry about what population can be sustained by 2100 in 2100.

That is true. By that time India will have other little Indian kingdoms to worry about.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

To plan for population growth base on assumptions for the future is like taking cash out of bank of money you don't have. China will worry about what population can be sustained by 2100 in 2100.

The problem my friend with population is that it can't be upped or downed in 5 or 10 years. It takes decades for policies to have effect.

That is true. By that time India will have other little Indian kingdoms to worry about.

India is far stable. There is a very clear system of governance, and the power has transferred very smoothly.

 

[Zsari]

The problem my friend with population is that it can't be upped or downed in 5 or 10 years. It takes decades for policies to have effect.

Then China can be a net agricultural exporter rather than an import, all the better.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Then China can be a net agricultural exporter rather than an import, all the better.

Doesn't matter. Natural resources never override human resources.

Just look at Australia, and Canada. Both have enormous resources, but as a stand alone power are no where near anything.

It all depends on what the Chinese want. I thought that China wanted a hegemony in East Asia, which would require it to have a preponderance of strength in absolute amount here. That means human resources.

 

[Zsari]

Doesn't matter. Natural resources never override human resources.

Just look at Australia, and Canada. Both have enormous resources, but as a stand alone power are no where near anything.

It all depends on what the Chinese want. I thought that China wanted a hegemony in East Asia, which would require it to have a preponderance of strength in absolute amount here. That means human resources.

You mean there are other nation in East Asia that would have a more massive population than China? What China needs today is not more head count.

 

[JaiMin]

How is that related to my post? Your 档案 or past record was the main deterrent against having more child back in the day (and it still is for government/SoE related job posting) is common knowledge in China. Yes, educated women are more aware of contraceptives, but that has nothing to do with how strictly rules are enforced.

Yes, I against having more children if the country economic growth or infrastructure cannot growth in pace with it. Bur i just link the article for you that in Vietnam the law is not strictly enforce for everyone but selected group of people

For decades, the Vietnamese government sterilized women after the birth of their second child, and employed coercive economic restrictions to punish families who had more than 2 children. In the September/October 1995 PRI Review, we noted: “[Vietnam] denies third children a birth certificate and offers a reward of $20 [in 1995 US dollars] to women who have a hysterectomy. Punishment for having a third child exists across Vietnam, but it appears the policy, which began in 1985, is most strict among the subsistence farmers who make up the poorer echelons of society. Families who violate the policy are denied land to grow rice—and thus effectively starved—until they fall back into line. They are also fined about $80 [in 1995 US dollars], a seemingly paltry amount that is in fact the equivalent of 10 months’ income. The government encourages women to undergo a hysterectomy following the birth of her second child, a procedure to which approximately half of all village women have been subjected.”

The laws is more strictly enforce in rural compare to in urban area- punishment was like no monthly bonus and salary had capped for two years, also need to contribute to social development fund- but it depend on their economic status,
I'am guessing the reason in previous post is that
"the rate of well-educated women giving birth to a third child was low because they were aware that if children were to receive the best care and education and families were to enjoy a reasonable standard of living they would not considered to having more than 2 children (at current level of development in Vietnam of course). Also, well-informed women also knew more about the importance of contraception compared to their less-educated counterparts who knew little or nothing. So that i meant less strict rule in urban compare to rural areas"

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

You mean there are other nation in East Asia that would have a more massive population than China? What China needs today is not more head count.

Perhaps not more head count. But at least to sustain current head count.

What I'm saying is that human resources, throughout history have been the biggest driver of power, and prosperity.

If you look at historical economic records, almost all people are capable of the same things, it is just the difference of total size.

 

[tranquilium]

Okay,yesterday I chatted with my friends.
They thought that the one child policy shouldnt be abandoned,if there r more people the life quality will decrease,what's ur opinion?
Less people,more suitable to our limited land.
We wont have good life quality if there r too many people.
@Bussard Ramjet

You mean there are other nation in East Asia that would have a more massive population than China? What China needs today is not more head count.

No, the idea for population control is keeping the population growth in line with infrastructure development. The modern day Chinese infrastructure is sufficient to support much higher population than 40 years ago.

In fact, the current two children policy was already partially in existence back in 1970s, when the population control is first implemented. Back then, the policy states that the children of two person who are also only the child are allowed to have more children. Basically, the policy planners four decades ago already anticipated that China's infrastructure in the future will improve. To be fair though, they probably didn't expect it to improve this much, hence why the current policy modification which give less restriction than the original one.

Yes, I against having more children if the country economic growth or infrastructure cannot growth in pace with it. Bur i just link the article for you that in Vietnam the law is not strictly enforce for everyone but selected group of people

Ah, okay then. Different country, different conditions.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

No, the idea for population control is keeping the population growth in line with infrastructure development. The modern day Chinese infrastructure is sufficient to support much higher population than 40 years ago.

In fact, the current two children policy was already partially in existence back in 1970s, when the population control is first implemented. Back then, the policy states that the children of two person who are also only the child are allowed to have more children. Basically, the policy planners four decades ago already anticipated that China's infrastructure in the future will improve. To be fair though, they probably didn't expect it to improve this much, hence why the current policy modification which give less restriction than the original one.



Ah, okay then. Different country, different conditions.

Exactly. Not only this, right now China also faced overcapacity in many sectors, which can be helped by more population.

Not to mention that there are many things that China can do to maintain food security, like industrializing and modernizing Agriculture. China's agriculture is only about a half or a third as efficient as the developed world.

 

[tranquilium]

Exactly. Not only this, right now China also faced overcapacity in many sectors, which can be helped by more population.

Not to mention that there are many things that China can do to maintain food security, like industrializing and modernizing Agriculture. China's agriculture is only about a half or a third as efficient as the developed world.

I do agree Chinese agriculture sector can still use a lot of improvement, though I am not quite sure all that is technological related. For example, whilst mechanized farming can indeed improve efficiency, it only works if the field is sufficient large and under the management of a unified entity. This is the case in US because it has already finished its urbanization process with more than 70% of the population living in urbanized areas. China just recently crossed the 50% mark, so there still is quite a way to go.

To be fair though, a lot of Chinese farmers are already doing this. Basically, at the start of each year, they will rent out their land to specialized farming companies with the appropriate equipment ranging from mechanized farming tool, to efficiently cultivated seeds, pesticides and fertilizer and to things like professional research team in optimizing the crop rotation, time, etc. The farmers themselves will go to the cities for other types of work and receive a portion of the harvest. It is work in the process though.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

I do agree Chinese agriculture sector can still use a lot of improvement, though I am not quite sure all that is technological related. For example, whilst mechanized farming can indeed improve efficiency, it only works if the field is sufficient large and under the management of a unified entity. This is the case in US because it has already finished its urbanization process with more than 70% of the population living in urbanized areas. China just recently crossed the 50% mark, so there still is quite a way to go.

To be fair though, a lot of Chinese farmers are already doing this. Basically, at the start of each year, they will rent out their land to specialized farming companies with the appropriate equipment ranging from mechanized farming tool, to efficiently cultivated seeds, pesticides and fertilizer and to things like professional research team in optimizing the crop rotation, time, etc. The farmers themselves will go to the cities for other types of work and receive a portion of the harvest. It is work in the process though.

Of course. And by increased population, I don't mean that population needs to go to the farms. What it means is a bigger absolute population in urban areas.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

Exactly. Not only this, right now China also faced overcapacity in many sectors, which can be helped by more population.

Not to mention that there are many things that China can do to maintain food security, like industrializing and modernizing Agriculture. China's agriculture is only about a half or a third as efficient as the developed world.

But what I get from Baidu is that modernizing agriculture wont improve output..
@tranquilium It refers to 单产？精耕才能提高单产吧。