Report on two-child policy submitted to decision-makers

[JSCh]

Report on two-child policy submitted to decision-makers
(Chinadaily.com.cn) 09:21, October 17, 2015

Li Shuchun, 4, and his 7-month-old brother Li Shuhan, live in Beijing with their parents who are among the 1.07 million out of 11 million eligible couples applied to have a second child by the end of last year. [Photo by Wang Nina/Provided to chinadaily.com.cn]​

A two-child policy allowing all couples in China to have a second child has been submitted to the nation's decision-makers as part of a report on China's future population development strategy.

An unnamed source told China Business News that the report was submitted at the request of the decision-makers, which is a signal that China's family planning policy might see a major change in the near future.

The policy would help with the country's demographic problems, such as rapid aging and low birth rate.

Population has much to do with production, consumption and employment in a country, so population policy attracts wide attention in China, the world's most-populous country.

China introduced the family planning policy as a basic state policy in 1983 to control population size and improve people's heath.

But the increasingly growing aging population poses difficulties for youngsters to support their elderly parents, especially when some couples have to support four elderly people.

In 2014, the number of Chinese aged 65 and older was 137 million, accounting for 10.1 percent of the whole population. In demographic terms, 7 percent of total population in this age group means an aging society.

China will have the largest aging population in 2050 when 35 percent of the country's population will be more than 60 years old in 2015, as estimated by the World Health Organization.

The family planning policy was adjusted in 2013 to allow couples to have a second child when one spouse is an only child.

Besides the looming aging society, China has also experienced a low birth rate, a problem in the population structure, which may cause the country a lack of fresh troops in production and consumption.

The percentage of the population aged under 14 in China declined from 33.6 in 1982 to 16.6 in 2010, according to the National Bureau of Statistics; any society with a population in that age bracket between 15 and 18 percent of the total populace faces a severely low birth rate.

A declining working-age population for consecutive three years directly caused labor shortages in China, which threatens sound economic development, let alone an aging phenomenon happening in the working force.

"These problems overlap and would pose huge challenges in 2020, so it's urgent to carry out an overall two-child policy, which will be the most direct and desirable solution, though it cannot solve the problems fundamentally," said Yao Meixiong, a demographer at the Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics.

Birth rate is especially needed to lift up, since youth are the main force of production, consumption and innovation, which are all beneficial for a country's development.

"People can enjoy the population dividend in the early years when the birth rate is low, but will suffer the consequences later", said Huang Wenzheng, a demographer with the Humanism Economics Society.

(Editor:Yuan Can,Bianji)​

Report on two-child policy submitted to decision-makers - People's Daily Online

 

[Economic superpower]

Wow 35% of the population will be over 60 years old by 2050.

The one child policy was brought in to solve one problem and it has now created an even bigger problem of skewed male to female ratio, falling birth rate and ageing population.

That's what happens when a government thinks it knows how to micromanage societies and economies.

Total failure of government intervention.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

I hope I will have a younger sister~

 

[Al-Taïr]

Wow 35% of the population will be over 60 years old by 2050.
.

That's what happens when a government thinks it knows how to micromanage societies and economies.

Total failure of government intervention.

if u accept enough applications, u still think u can't raise enough younsters in 35 years

 

[EAsian]

Wow 35% of the population will be over 60 years old by 2050.

The one child policy was brought in to solve one problem and it has now created an even bigger problem of skewed male to female ratio, falling birth rate and ageing population.

That's what happens when a government thinks it knows how to micromanage societies and economies.

Total failure of government intervention.

Famines were the reason why CCP invented The infamous One Child Policy.A group of hungary people is the last thing CCP want to see.The first prior thing is always the power and continunity of CCP，not the country.More elders mighty make the country and the authority more stable as long as the economy don't go bankrupcy.Who knows what would CCP do,Hopes they whould do the right thing.

 

[ahojunk]

I hope I will have a younger sister~

@Chinese Bamboo

Well, you will have to ask your parents to start working on this as soon as possible...

 

[CHN Bamboo]

@Chinese Bamboo

Well, you will have to ask your parents to start working on this as soon as possible...

I will(๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Once this policy begin.I will urge them.

 

[tranquilium]

Wow 35% of the population will be over 60 years old by 2050.

The one child policy was brought in to solve one problem and it has now created an even bigger problem of skewed male to female ratio, falling birth rate and ageing population.

That's what happens when a government thinks it knows how to micromanage societies and economies.

Total failure of government intervention.

Meh, without the one child policy, we won't actually be here to worry about falling birth rate----we'd still be stuck as a backward, low industrial level nation praying our "population dividend" would actually mean something.

Also, historically male to female ratio has always favored male in low industrialization nations. The reason is simply, male is physically stronger, thus more useful for strength based labor which prevalent in pre-industrialized works. Female's status only increases after the society's economic advances to a certain technological and infrastructure level.

I know it is tempting to use the statement of "XXX thinks its knows how YYY" to express contempt for people who made an effort to do something (that may not benefit you directly or in obvious ways), but the alternative is a lot worse.

 

[EAsian]

Meh, without the one child policy, we won't actually be here to worry about falling birth rate----we'd still be stuck as a backward, low industrial level nation praying our "population dividend" would actually mean something.

Also, historically male to female ratio has always favored male in low industrialization nations. The reason is simply, male is physically stronger, thus more useful for strength based labor which prevalent in pre-industrialized works. Female's status only increases after the society's economic advances to a certain technological and infrastructure level.

I know it is tempting to use the statement of "XXX thinks its knows how YYY" to express contempt for people who made an effort to do something (that may not benefit you directly or in obvious ways), but the alternative is a lot worse.

If less people could make a country wealthier，then Australian and Canadian should be 10 times wealthier than American.And if that is the case，then China should immediately ban all people having any child.This is really stupid.People doesn't share the same wealth，people themselves make wealth.How could a person be so stupid and brainwashed？

 

[tranquilium]

If less people could make a country wealthier，than Australia and Canada should be 10 times wealthier than USA.And if that is the case，then China should immediately ban all people having child.This is really stupid.People doesn't share the same wealth，people themselves make wealth.How could a person be so stupid and brainwashed？

Less people does not make a country wealthier. The one child policy is also never intended to make China has less people. I replied yesterday that the one child policy's goal is for China to reach a population equilibrium.

Population control policy in general is made so that the infrastructure can keep up with the population growth. In ancient times, it is typically correspond to food supply. However, in modern society, infrastructure as education, medical care and job opportunity are all important factors. If the population growth exceed the growth of these appropriate infrastructure, then the society does not benefit from the extra population.

Basically, less people doesn't make a country wealth and more people doesn't either. There is a optimal midway point and population control policies (which, btw, can also include policy promoting population growth as observed in USSR) is aimed at reaching that point.

 

[EAsian]

Less people does not make a country wealthier. The one child policy is also never intended to make China has less people. I replied yesterday that the one child policy's goal is for China to reach a population equilibrium.

Population control policy in general is made so that the infrastructure can keep up with the population growth. In ancient times, it is typically correspond to food supply. However, in modern society, infrastructure as education, medical care and job opportunity are all important factors. If the population growth exceed the growth of these appropriate infrastructure, then the society does not benefit from the extra population.

Basically, less people doesn't make a country wealth and more people doesn't either. There is a optimal midway point and population control policies (which, btw, can also include policy promoting population growth as observed in USSR) is aimed at reaching that point.

Don't you think more people will make building infrastracture easier？Imagine the case that China only have 100million and live everywhere in the whole country，building same infrastructrue now china have will become much much more difficult and unprofitable.I don't see Japanese have any difficulty in building infrastructure even they are much more crowded than China.All these education，medical care don't have anything to do with population.There will be more doctors and engineers if there are more people.

 

[tranquilium]

Don't you think more people will make building infrastracture easier？Imagine the case that China only have 100million and live everywhere in the whole country，building same infrastructrue now china have will become much much more difficult and unprofitable.

Not really. Unlike the ancient times, modern infrastructure building require significantly less physical labor and physical labor by human body is grossly inefficient comparing to machine based operations. For example, ten farmers farming by hand is way less productive than one farmer farming with a tractor and using chemical fertilizers. This is what industrial revolution is all about, boosting labor efficiency through use of machines. A family can have the choice of having 4 children and give them no education. Or they can have 1/2 children and give them education. The latter is a lot more beneficial to both the family and the nation as a whole.

100 million is a rather arbitrary number. Incidentally, however, it is too low of a number for competitive nation aiming for top spot in the world. 80 million is the bare minimum for a 21st century complete chain. However, no one in charge is actually trying to get China to 100 million. The current goal is population equilibrium at about 1.5 billion and like all goals, it is subjected to change if the environmental factor change.

My observation for a lot of people going against one child policy are actually the ones born later than 1995. For them, not enough teachers, not enough food and limited education resource are such a foreign concept, but for someone born in the 80s, not enough resource to accommodate everyone is a very real memory.

 

[EAsian]

Population is not a burden，population is a gift.Someones need to relize this basic logic.So in the end of all，Why CPC invented this one child thing？The answer is quite clear as I have said.

Not really. Unlike the ancient times, modern infrastructure building require significantly less physical labor and physical labor by human body is grossly inefficient comparing to machine based operations. For example, ten farmers farming by hand is way less productive than one farmer farming with a tractor and using chemical fertilizers. This is what industrial revolution is all about, boosting labor efficiency through use of machines. A family can have the choice of having 4 children and give them no education. Or they can have 1/2 children and give them education. The latter is a lot more beneficial to both the family and the nation as a whole.

100 million is a rather arbitrary number. Incidentally, however, it is too low of a number for competitive nation aiming for top spot in the world. 80 million is the bare minimum for a 21st century complete chain. However, no one in charge is actually trying to get China to 100 million. The current goal is population equilibrium at about 1.5 billion and like all goals, it is subjected to change if the environmental factor change.

My observation for a lot of people going against one child policy are actually the ones born later than 1995. For them, not enough teachers, not enough food and limited education resource are such a foreign concept, but for someone born in the 80s, not enough resource to accommodate everyone is a very real memory.

And Who is building the machine，tractors？Who become Doctors and engineers？

 

[tranquilium]

Population is not a burden，population is a gift.Someones need to relize this basic logic.So in the end of all，Why CPC invented this one child thing？The answer is quite clear as I have said.

And Who is building the machine，tractors？Who become Doctors and engineers？

Educated population. Overpopulation and underpopulation are both undesirable conditions. I do believe I have stressed this since the first post. (Can anyone honestly claim China is under-populated?)

 

[EAsian]

Educated population. Overpopulation and underpopulation are both undesirable conditions. I do believe I have stressed this since the first post. (Can anyone honestly claim China is under-populated?)

Who gonna educate people？don't think China were lack of teachers，in fact，one teacher can educate 10 people.The same number of teachers can also educate 12 people，Don't even need 1.2 teachers.Knowledge and technology spread like virus，the number of teachers have never been a major problem.The problem is how to get these knowledge and technology.